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The Measurable News THE MEASURABLE NEWS The Quarterly Magazine of the College of Performance Management 2018.04 mycpm.org INSIDE 09 13 21 27 On the Psychology of Artificial Neural Applying Earned Benefit Increasing the THIS Human Misjudgment: Networks, Dovetailing Management Probability of Program Charlie Munger on Goals, and Rapid Skill The Value of Benefits Success with Continuous ISSUE Decision-Making Acquisition: Why Sharing If you can’t track it, you Risk Management Your Experience Helps can’t manage it! By Paul Bolinger with Us All By Glen Alleman, Tom Steven Phillips By Crispin “Kik” Piney Coonce, and Rick Price By Nathan Eskue THE MEASURABLE NEWS The Quarterly Magazine of the College of Performance Management 2018.04 2018 ISSUE 04 CONTENTS 05 Letter from the Editor(s) 07 Message from the President 09 On the Psychology of Human Misjudgment: Charlie Munger on Decision-Making By Paul Bolinger with Steven Phillips 13 Artificial Neural Networks, Dovetailing Goals, and Rapid Skill Acquisition: Why Sharing Your Experience Helps Us All (Or–Three Things I Realized While Being Held in an Italian Police Station) By Nathan Eskue 21 Applying Earned Benefit Management The Value of Benefits If you can’t track it, you can’t manage it! By Crispin “Kik” Piney, PgMP, PfMP 27 Increasing the Probability of Program Success with Continuous Risk Management By Glen Alleman, Tom Coonce, and Rick Price 48 Vendors/Services mycpm.org THE MEASURABLE NEWS IS AN OFFICIAL PUBLICATION OF THE THE COLLEGE OF COLLEGE OF PERFORMANCE PERFORMANCE MANAGEMENT MANAGEMENT EDITORIAL STAFF Publisher: College of Performance Management Story Editors: Robin Pulverenti and Nicholas Pisano Design: id365 Design + Communications Communications VP: Timothy Fritz 2018 BOARD & STAFF EDITORIAL COPY PRESIDENT Wayne Abba Editorial contributions, photos, and miscellaneous 703-658-1815 • [email protected] inquiries should be addressed and sent to the editor at the College of Performance Management (CPM) headquarters. Please follow the author guidelines EXECUTIVE VICE PRESIDENT posted on the CPM web site. Letters submitted to Kym Henderson the editor will be considered for publication unless +61 414 428 537 • [email protected] the writer requests otherwise. Letters are subject to editing for style, accuracy, space, and propriety. All VICE PRESIDENT OF FINANCE letters must be signed, and initials will be used on Brian Evans request only if you include your name. CPM reserves 703-201-3278 • [email protected] the right to refuse publication of any letter for any reason. We welcome articles relevant to project VICE PRESIDENT OF ADMINISTRATION management. The Measurable News does not pay for Lauren Bone submissions. Articles published in The Measurable +44 (0) 7766 97 40 63 • [email protected] News remain the property of the authors. VICE PRESIDENT OF CONFERENCE & EVENTS ADVERTISING Kathy Evans Advertising inquiries, submissions, and payments 703-201-3278 • [email protected] (check or money order made payable to the College of Performance Management) should be sent to CPM VICE PRESIDENT OF EDUCATION & CERTIFICATION headquarters. Advertising rates are $1000 for inside Bill Mathis front or back cover (full-page ad only), $800 for other 703-825-5588 • [email protected] full-page ads, $500 for half-page ads, and $300 for quarter-page ads. Issue sponsorships are available at $2,500 per issue. Business card ads are available VICE PRESIDENT OF RESEARCH & STANDARDS for $100 per issue (or free with full-page ad). Rates Marty Doucette are good from January 1, 2018 – December 31, 2018. 317-727-1237 • [email protected] College of Performance Management reserves the right to refuse publication of any ad for any reason. VICE PRESIDENT OF COMMUNICATIONS Timothy Fritz SUBSCRIPTIONS [email protected] All College of Performance Management publications are produced as a benefit for College of Performance PAST PRESIDENT Management members. All change of address or Gary W. Troop membership inquiries should be directed to: 310-365-3876 • [email protected] College of Performance Management EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR 11130 Sunrise Valley Drive, Suite 350 Beatrice Barry Reston, VA 20191 703-234-4147 • [email protected] Ph 703-370-7885 • Fx 703-370-1757 www.mycpm.org All articles and letters represent the view of the authors and not necessarily those of College of Performance Management. Advertising content does not signify endorsement by College of Performance Management. Please notify College of Performance Management for single copy or reproduction requests. Appropriate charges will apply. © 2018 by the College of Performance Management. All rights reserved. SOLUTIONS THAT BRING ALL THE PIECES TOGETHER /Äã½½®¦ÄÄĽùã®Ý ¥ÊÙdÊù͛ÝçÝ®ÄÝÝ �t S�� So�ware we have combined the latest, most powerful business intelligence technology with the exper�se of the best minds in project management to deliver powerful Business Intelligence, Business �naly�cs, and Integrated �rogram Management solu�ons. These solu�ons are transforming the way both government and industry conducts business. The fusion of COTS domain knowledge augmented by an open, powerful, business intelligence pla�orm will put your organiza- �on ahead of the power curve rela�ve to your compe�tors, maximizing your return on investment and allowing you to build your corporate knowledge and exper�se to meet your current and future needs. This COTS/BI approach enables you to address your immediate needs, realizing immediate ROI, while providing flexibility for new and emergent requirements. Our �roteus and Envision solu�ons eliminate redundancy, transform, and op�mize data, regardless of size, or source, or for- mat. �e have moved organiza�ons away from needing to manage the confusion of di�ering terminologies and applica�on, to an organiza�on with one source of truth that provides mul�ple pathways of analysis. S��’s fourth genera�on so�ware is agnos�c to underlying data, and provides an open system that puts your organiza�on and SMEs back in the driver’s seat in determining how and which analysis they view. Our low-code environment allows changes and new func�onality to be released in a ma�er of days or weeks, rather than the structured yearly or bi-yearly releases that require new applica�on installa�ons found in tradi�onal third genera�on so�ware. B������� I����������� P������ P�������� ���������� S�������������� E�� S������ P������ ���� I���������� ��� A�������� ����������� S����� A��������� � C��������� 866-389-6750 sna-so�ware.com � �0�8 S�� SO�T��RE, ��C ��� R����� R�������. O�� T�� ����, ��� ��� ����� ���������� ��� ��� �������� �� ����� ���������� ������ THE MEASURABLE NEWS 2018.04 LETTER FROM THE EDITOR Nicholas Pisano This issue of Measurable News marks a transition in the life of our organization in many ways. This transition is measured not only in the change in CPM leadership, but also in our approach in adapting to the needs of our constituency in the Project and Program Management discipline. This issue represents the last, fourth issue of the publication problem to solve, observational or quantitative research, for this year. The importance of doing this is twofold. First, hypothesis, measurement, and conclusion. While this sounds CPM has a contractual obligation to its advertisers and its challenging, it is understood that we are dealing with complex membership to publish its periodical four times in a year. This social systems which defy testing against an analogue. Thus, at issue ensures the organization meets its commitments. Second, the end of the day, the process of challenging old assumptions without a voice in seeking new and important contributions and the debate that will ensue, will lead our community to from our membership, and the discipline as a whole that find new ways of looking at things—and provide insight and contribute to the literature, the relevancy of Measurable News value that would otherwise not been realized. The emphasis and, by extension, CPM is called into question. will be to foster new ideas and debate through civil discourse and empiricism. Our intent is to make it stimulating and I mention this because in 2018 finding contributions to valuable to anyone who works in the acquisition and program the literature turned out to be somewhat challenging. Our management community. membership and the larger readership of this publication should consider this to be more than problematic, and Organizations such as CPM are as vulnerable as they are indicative that the organization—and its media—need to essential. Once an ecosystem is lost it is very hard to regain change with the times. it. The roots of this organization began as serving the needs of those engaged in the field of program and project This is why in the last issue we announced the transition of management in the public interest. These needs include Measurable News into a twice-yearly professional journal sharing expertise, teaching necessary skills, the prosaic critical with an academic and scholarly focus. This transition will skills of learning what works and what does not, exploring begin in 2019 after the publication of this issue. Furthermore, new and better ways of doing business in our area of expertise, the College will be launching a more frequently published government transparency and outreach, and finding fellowship “Knowledge from the College, the Measurable Newsletter” that among those with similar issues and challenges. will be a more immediate forum for the discussion of the latest news and trends in our community, and which will leverage a With the introduction of the Web, Big Data, and social number of digital formats in delivering this content. networking, we are constantly bombarded with all types of information—some of it contradictory and almost all of The need for these changes reflect the challenges that we see it unfiltered. It has created the paradoxical condition of among other professional organizations: the effects of social expanding one’s universe while atomizing our support systems. networking that undermine personal participation and face- Management advice and raw data without a gatekeeper is to-face contact, larger economic trends in industry—driven by equivalent to diet and self-help literature.
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