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Mah Sing Group Bhd TP: RM1.26 (+59.5%) Last Traded: RM0.79 First Land Deal for 2021 Buy

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Mah Sing Group Bhd TP: RM1.26 (+59.5%) Last Traded: RM0.79 First Land Deal for 2021 Buy COMPANY U PDAT E Monday, February 22, 2021 FBMKLCI: 1, 584.93 Sector: Property THIS REPORT IS STRICTLY FOR INTERNAL CIRCULATION ONLY* Mah Sing Group Bhd TP: RM1.26 (+59.5%) Last Traded: RM0.79 First Land Deal for 2021 Buy Thiam Chiann Wen Tel: +603-2167 9615 [email protected] www.taonline.com.my Buying 100 acres of land in Salak Tinggi for RM 95.8mn Share Information Mah Sing announced that it had accepted the counter offer approval letter issued Bloomberg Code MSGB MK Stock Code 8583 by the Sepang District/Land Office for the alienation of a parcel of leasehold land Listing Main Market in Bandar Baru Salak Tinggi, measuring approximately 100 acres for a total Share Cap (mn) 2,427.7 consideration of RM95.8mn (RM22psf). Note that the land comes with the Market Cap (RMmn) 1,905.7 52-wk Hi/Lo (RM) 1.47/0.31 benefit of converted residential title, enabling rapid speed to market to meet 12-mth Avg Daily Vol ('000 shrs) 29,721.0 market demand in the location. Estimated Free Float (%) 49.1 Beta 1.45 Major Shareholders (%) Located in Sepang, the Next Emerging Hotspot in Klang Valley Tan Sri Dato' Sri Leong Hoy Kum - 34.3 According to the announcement, the land is located in Bandar Baru Salak Tinggi, PNB - 12.6 EPF - 4.9 Sepang, which is also known as the Airport City – see Appendix 1 . Leveraging KWAP - 4.6 on the 100 sq. km. KLIA Aeropolis, which is designed as an integrated, complete and synergistic ecosystem comprising three core clusters: Air Cargo & Logistics, Forecast Revision Aerospace & Aviation, and MICE & Leisure, Sepang is also deemed to be next FY20 FY21 high growth corridor of Greater KL. Forecast Revision (%) 0.0 0.0 Net profit (RMmn) 58.2 222.5 Consensus 69.8 213.0 There are 6 universities nearby the land, i.e., Xiamen University, INTI TA's / Consensus (%) 83.4 104.5 International University, Nilai University, Manipal International University, Previous Rating Buy (Maintained) University Kuala Lumpur and Islamic Science University of Malaysia. Within 10km Financial Indicators of the land, there are ready amenities namely the ERL Salak Tinggi Station, Bandar FY20 FY21 Baru Salak Tinggi Stadium, Nilai Medical Center and KIPMall Kota Warisan. In Net gearing (%) Net Cash 3.5 CFPS (sen) (17.1) (5.5) terms of accessibility, the land is well connected to Kuala Lumpur City Center, P/CFPS (x) (4.6) (14.3) Putrajaya and Cyberjaya via major accesses and highways such as ELITE Highway, ROE (%) 1.7 6.2 North-South Expressway, Putrajaya-Cyberjaya Expressway, Jalan Banting-KLIA ROA (%) 0.9 3.2 NTA/Share (RM) 1.4 1.5 and KLIA Extension Highway. Price/ NTA (x) 0.5 0.5 Landed Residential Development Worth RM656mn GDV Share Performance (%) Based on preliminary plans, the landed residential development, dubbed M Price Change MSGB FBM KLCI 1 mth (8.7) (1.1) Senyum, which is planned to be affordably priced, will offer double storey terrace 3 mth (12.8) 0.1 houses with indicative land size of 18’X65’ and 20’X70’, and priced from 6 mth 2.6 0.6 12 mth 16.3 3.3 RM399k/unit. Spanning over a development period of 5 years, M Senyum is expected to yield a GDV of RM656mn. Management expects to launch a preview (12-Mth) Share Price relative to the FBMKLCI of this project with registration of interest targeted to be in the second half of 2021. Positive on the Land Acquisition for Future Growth We are positive on the deal as it is in line with the group’s focus to acquire prime land in strategic location especially in the Klang Valley. This new land acquisition will increase the group’s landbank to 2,096 acres with total remaining GDV and unbilled sales of RM25.0bn. Based on the estimate GDV of RM656mn, the land Source: Bloomberg cost makes up 14.6% of the total development value. As the land cost to GDV ratio comes below the general rule of thumb of 20%, we deem the acquisition price reasonable. Page 1 of 4 22-Feb-21 We believe M Senyum will replicate the group’s existing landed residential projects such as Meridin East township in Johor, and M Aruna township in Rawang, which have been well-received by those who rejoice in life away from the city, while still able to enjoy the convenience of the highway connectivity as well as nearby amenities. At an indicative selling price of RM250psf onwards, we believe the project is competitively priced as compared with the new launches in Sepang such as Serenia Ariya and Cendana Greenwoods, which are priced from RM356psf and RM305psf respectively – see Figure 1 . Figure 1: Price Comparison for Projects in Sepang/Dengkil IOIPG Sime Darby Sunsuria Paramount Glomac Avista @ Ariya @ Serenia Monet Lily @ Cendana @ Camellia @ Project Warisan Puteri City Sunsuria City Greenwoods Saujana KLIA Land Tenure Freehold Freehold Freehold Freehold Leasehold Launch date 2016 2020 2017 2020 2016 Lot Size 22' x 75' 20' x 70' 20' x 70' 20' x 65' 22' x 75' Built up 2,277 sq. ft. 1,589 sq. ft. 1,400 sq. ft. 1,773 sq. ft. 1,765 sq. ft. Price from RM791,800 RM565,888 RM660,000 RM540,400 RM514,000 Price psf RM313 RM356 RM470 RM305 RM290 Source: iProperty, PropertyGuru, Propsocial, Propwall, respective companies’ website Figure 2: Key Developments in Sepang/Dengkil Source: City & Country, The Edge Malaysia Weekly, on May 28, 2018 - June 03, 2018 Impact No change to our FY20-22 earnings forecasts for now pending more information from management. In terms of funding, we believe Mah Sing’s healthy balance sheet with cash balance of RM1.1bn as at Sep-20 (net gearing 0.23x if perpetual securities are treated as debt), should provide financial flexibility for future land acquisition and glove-making venture. Valuation We maintain Mah Sing as Buy with a SOP-derived target price of RM1.26. We value the group’s property and other existing businesses at CY21 P/B ratio of 0.45x (1.25 SD below its 5-year mean of 0.77x) and glove business at CY21 P/E ratio of 13x. Page 2 of 4 22-Feb-21 Figure 3: Sum of Parts Valuation Source: TA Research. Appendix 1: Location of the Land Source: Mah Sing Page 3 of 4 22-Feb-21 Earnings Summary Profit and Loss (RM'mn) Balance Sheet RM'mn) FYE Dec 2018 2019F 2020F 2021F 2022F FYE Dec 2018 2019F 2020F 2021F 2022F Revenue 2192.9 1789.7 1283.5 2048.8 2603.9 PPE 227.4 225.7 222.2 365.7 498.7 COGS (1542.4) (1274.1) (898.4) (1434.1) (1822.7) Land held for dev 1619.8 1750.4 1758.5 1766.5 1774.6 Gross profit 650.6 515.6 385.0 614.6 781.2 Prepaid lease payments 4.8 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.4 Investment Properties 228.5 214.4 214.4 214.4 214.4 EBITDA 371.2 287.9 196.0 390.9 575.7 Others 174.1 150.8 150.8 150.8 150.8 Depreciation (13.5) (16.4) (13.5) (16.4) (27.0) LT Assets 2254.6 2345.8 2350.3 2502.0 2643.0 Amortisation (0.0) (0.0) (0.0) (0.0) (0.0) EBIT 357.7 271.4 182.4 374.4 548.7 Property dev. Cost 1749.2 1531.6 1667.0 1815.6 1976.4 Finance cost (10.1) (1.2) (10.2) (10.2) (11.0) Inventories 731.3 763.3 738.4 982.3 1148.6 PBT 347.6 270.2 172.3 364.3 537.6 Trade & other receivables 946.0 963.4 879.1 1122.6 1355.4 Cash & Cash equivalent 1220.5 1063.5 933.4 1088.5 1245.6 Tax (77.0) (67.6) (41.3) (87.4) (129.0) Others 7.9 8.2 8.2 8.2 8.2 MI 1.0 (2.3) 0.0 0.0 0.0 ST Assets 4654.8 4330.0 4226.2 5017.2 5734.2 Net profit 271.6 200.3 130.9 276.8 408.6 Core Net profit^ 190.1 148.3 58.2 222.5 354.2 Total Assets 6909.4 6675.8 6576.5 7519.2 8377.2 Core EPS (sen) 7.9 6.2 2.4 9.2 14.7 Trade and other payables 1395.8 1149.5 632.9 1010.4 1284.1 DPS (sen) 4.5 3.4 1.3 3.0 4.5 ST Borrowings 121.3 122.0 122.0 122.0 122.0 Others 22.4 14.8 14.8 14.8 14.8 ST Liabilities 1539.6 1286.2 769.7 1147.1 1420.9 Cash Flows (RM'mn) 2018 2019F 2020F 2021F 2022F PBT 347.6 270.2 172.3 364.3 537.6 LT Borrowings 443.0 444.9 754.0 1097.0 1354.6 Depr & Amort 13.6 16.4 13.5 16.4 27.1 Others 103.1 118.3 118.3 118.3 118.3 Tax (77.0) (67.6) (41.3) (87.4) (129.0) LT Liabilities 546.1 563.2 872.3 1215.3 1472.8 Others 353.1 196.7 (542.7) (258.6) (286.1) CFO 637.2 415.7 (398.2) 34.7 149.5 Share Cap 1776.1 1776.1 1776.1 1776.1 1776.1 Reserves 1712.9 1712.9 1748.4 1916.2 2188.5 Capex (287.1) (331.6) (18.1) (168.1) (168.1) Shareholder's Funds 3489.0 3489.0 3524.4 3692.3 3964.6 Others (34.7) (28.8) 0.0 0.0 0.0 Holders of Perpetual Sukuk 540.0 540.0 558.4 558.4 558.4 CFI (321.7) (360.4) (18.1) (168.1) (168.1) Holders of Perpetual Securities 789.4 789.4 843.7 898.1 952.4 MI 5.3 8.0 8.0 8.0 8.0 Net Addition/Rpmt 296.0 369.2 309.0 343.0 257.5 Dividend Paid (81.3) (61.0) (22.8) (54.6) (81.9) Liabilities + Equities 6909.4 6675.8 6576.5 7519.2 8377.2 Others (484.0) (818.1) 0.0 0.0 0.0 CFF (269.3) (509.9) 286.3 288.4 175.6 Ratios 2018 2019F 2020F 2021F 2022F EPS Growth (%) (25.0) (26.8) (60.8) 282.5 59.2 Net Cash Flow 46.2 (454.5) (130.0) 155.1 157.1 PER (x) 11.5 14.8 37.7 9.9 6.2 GDPS (sen) 4.5 3.4 1.3 3.0 4.5 Div Yield (%) 4.9 3.7 1.4 3.3 4.9 Net gearing (x) Net cash Net cash Net cash 0.04 0.06 ROE (%) 5.5 4.2 1.7 6.2 9.3 Assumptions 2018 2019F 2020F 2021F 2022F ROA (%) 2.7 1.6 0.9 3.2 4.5 Sales Assumptions 1503 1500 1018 1320 1705 NTA (RM) 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.6 Prop Dev Margins 17.9 18.0 17.3 16.7 17.6 P/NTA (x) 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 ^ Core Net Profit excludes fair value gains and distribution to perpetual sukuk and securities holders Stock Recommendation Guideline BUY : Total return within the next 12 months exceeds required rate of return by 5%-point.
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