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Scientific Prediction in Nicholas Rescher's Conception Scientific Prediction in Nicholas Rescher’s Conception: Philosophico-Methodological Analysis Ph.D/Doctoral Dissertation by Amanda Guillán Dopico Volume I of II Volumes Supervisor: Wenceslao J. González Programa de Doctorado Interuniversitario de Lógica y Filosofía de la Ciencia (RD 1393/2007) 2015 SCIENTIFIC PREDICTION IN NICHOLAS RESCHER ’S CONCEPTION : PHILOSOPHICO -METHODOLOGICAL ANALYSIS ABSTRACT Scientific prediction is a central problem in philosophy and methodology of science. This topic has been particularly relevant in Nicholas Rescher’s philosophy. On the one hand, scientific prediction appears as a key concept within his philosophical proposal, which is a system of pragmatic idealism; on the other, a number of his publications are devoted to the study of scientific prediction from different angles. De facto , he offers a rigorous and detailed conception of prediction in science. Within this context, this Ph.D. research has two main objectives, which are interrelated. First, the analysis of the philosophico-methodological characters of scientific prediction in Rescher’s conception is the focus of the attention. To do this, the research deals with different thematic realms: semantic, logical, epistemological, methodological, ontological, axiological, and ethical. These are grounded in the different components of science (language, structure, knowledge, processes, activity, ends, and values). Second, the critical reconstruction of Rescher’s philosophy of science is searched. His approach is a pragmatic idealism that is open to some important realist elements. This second line of research is developed in parallel with the first one, because his system of pragmatic idealism modulates the characters of scientific prediction. LA PREDICCIÓN CIENTÍFICA EN LA CONCEPCIÓN DE NICHOLAS RESCHER : ANÁLISIS FILOSÓFICO -METODOLÓGICO RESUMEN El problema de la predicción científica es un tema central para la Filosofía y Metodología de la Ciencia. Se trata de un tema especialmente relevante en la Filosofía de Nicholas Rescher. Por un lado, la predicción científica aparece como un concepto clave dentro de su propuesta filosófica, que es un sistema de idealismo pragmático. Por otro lado, tiene trabajos en los que analiza la predicción científica desde diversos ángulos. De facto , ofrece una concepción rigurosa y detallada de la predicción. Dentro de este marco, la presente Tesis Doctoral tiene dos objetivos fundamentales, que están interrelacionados. En primer lugar, el estudio se orienta a analizar los caracteres filosófico-metodológicos de la predicción científica en la concepción de Rescher. A tal efecto, la investigación se enfoca desde diversos ámbitos temáticos: semántico, lógico, epistemológico, metodológico, ontológico, axiológico y ético. Estos ámbitos temáticos se fundamentan en los diversos componentes de la Ciencia (lenguaje, estructura, conocimiento, procesos, actividad, fines y valores). En segundo término, la investigación se orienta a reconstruir críticamente la Filosofía de la Ciencia de Rescher. Su propuesta es un idealismo pragmático que está abierto a importantes elementos de realismo. Esta segunda línea se desarrolla de manera paralela a la primera, porque su sistema de idealismo pragmático modula los caracteres de la predicción científica. A PREDICIÓN CIENTÍFICA NA CONCEPCIÓN DE NICHOLAS RESCHER : ANÁLISE FILOSÓFICA -METODOLÓXICA RESUMO O problema da predición científica é un tema central para a Filosofía e Metodoloxía da Ciencia. Trátase dun tema especialmente relevante na Filosofía de Nicholas Rescher. Por un lado, a predición científica aparece como un concepto clave dentro da súa proposta filosófica, que é un sistema de idealismo pragmático. Por outro lado, ten traballos nos que analiza a predición científica desde diversos ángulos. De facto , ofrece unha concepción rigorosa da predicción, onde acada un gran nivel de detalle. Dentro deste marco, a presente Tese de Doutoramento ten dous obxectivos fundamentais, que están interrelacionados. En primeiro lugar, o estudo oriéntase a analizar os caracteres filosófico-metodolóxicos da predición científica na concepción de Rescher. A tal efecto, a investigación enfócase desde diversos ámbitos temáticos: semántico, lóxico, epistemolóxico, metodolóxico, ontolóxico, axiolóxico e ético. Estes ámbitos temáticos fundaméntanse nos diversos compoñentes da Ciencia (linguaxe, estrutura, coñecemento, procesos, actividade, fins e valores). En segundo termo, a investigación oriéntase a reconstruir críticamente a Filosofía da Ciencia de Rescher. A súa proposta é un idealismo pragmático que está aberto a importantes elementos de realismo. Esta segunda liña de análise desenvólvese en paralelo á primeira, porque o seu sistema de idealismo pragmático modula os caracteres da predición científica. i GENERAL INDEX INTRODUCTION .......................................................................................................... 1 I. Thematic Context of the Research ................................................................... 1 II. From the Problems to the Philosophico-Methodological Analysis ..................... 4 III. Acknowledgments .........................................................................................10 PART I General Coordinates, Semantic Features, and Logical Components of Scientific Prediction CHAPTER 1 Scientific Prediction in a System of Pragmatic Idealism ...................................14 1.1. Nicholas Rescher’s Philosophy: General Co ordinates .................................15 1.1.1. Academic Training and Career ..............................................................16 1.1.2. A Kantian Pragmatism: The Primacy of Practice ...................................22 1.2. A Systematic Conception of Science and Philosophy ..................................27 1.2.1. The Role of Concepts in the Development of Knowledge......................28 1.2.2. Scientific Progress ................................................................................33 1.3. The Main Philosophico-Methodological Elements of Prediction ....................44 1.3.1. Semantic and Logical Features of Prediction ........................................46 1.3.2. Prediction in the Epistemological and Methodological Realms ..............50 1.3.3. Ontological Features of Prediction and the Realm of Values ................54 1.4. Pragmatic Idealism in the Contemporary Context ........................................58 1.4.1. A System Open to Realism without Eclecticism ....................................58 1.4.2. An Idealism with Distinctive Features ....................................................63 CHAPTER 2 Analysis of Scientific Prediction from Language ...............................................69 2.1. Characteristic Features of Meaning in Rescher ...........................................70 2.1.1. Communication as Activity and Meaning with Cognitive Content ...........70 2.1.2. The Primacy of the Pragmatic Dimension .............................................74 2.2. Scientific Prediction in a Theory of Meaning ................................................81 2.2.1. Context of Use ......................................................................................82 2.2.2. Statement about Novel Facts ................................................................84 ii 2.3. The Language of “Prediction” ......................................................................86 2.3.1. The Concept of “Prediction” ..................................................................87 2.3.2. Quantitative Prediction and Qualitative Prediction .................................90 2.4. Characterization of the Predictive Statements .............................................96 2.4.1. Prediction and Retrodiction ...................................................................96 2.4.2. Foresight, Prediction, Forecasting, and Planning ..................................99 2.5. Scientific Prediction and the Problem of Demarcation ............................... 103 2.5.1. Accommodation and Scientific Prediction ........................................... 104 2.5.2. The Pragmatic Alternative ................................................................... 110 2.6. Limits of Language and Prediction: “Not Predictable” and “Unpredictable” .................................................. 116 CHAPTER 3 Logical Features of Scientific Prediction .......................................................... 125 3.1. From Logical Symmetry to Asymmetry between Explanation and Prediction.......................................................... 126 3.1.1. A Significant “Disanalogy”: Explanation of Past and Prediction of Future ...................................... 127 3.1.2. Rescher’s Proposal on the Nexus between Explanation and Prediction ................................................... 132 3.2. The Temporality Factor ............................................................................. 136 3.2.1. Is There Just and Anisotropy between Explanation and Prediction? .... 137 3.2.2. Are Retrodiction and Prediction Logically Equivalent? ........................ 143 3.3. The Role of Inductive Logic with Regard to Scientific Prediction ................. 149 3.3.1. The Problem of Induction as Scientific Procedure ............................... 150 3.3.2. Justification of Induction: The Pragmatic Preference ........................... 154 3.4. Importance of Induction for Scientific Prediction ........................................ 158 3.4.1. Role in the “Context of Discovery”
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