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Deterioration and Optimal Rehabilitation Modelling for Urban Water Distribution Systems

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Deterioration and Optimal Rehabilitation Modelling for Urban Water Distribution Systems Deterioration and Optimal Rehabilitation Modelling for Urban Water Distribution Systems Yi Zhou DETERIORATION AND OPTIMAL REHABILITATION MODELLING FOR URBAN WATER DISTRIBUTION SYSTEMS Yi ZHOU DETERIORATION AND OPTIMAL REHABILITATION MODELLING FOR URBAN WATER DISTRIBUTION SYSTEMS DISSERTATION Submitted in fulfillment of the requirements of the Board for Doctorates of Delft University of Technology and of the Academic Board of the IHE Delft Institute for Water Education for the Degree of DOCTOR to be defended in public on Monday, 7 May 2018, at 12.30 hours in Delft, the Netherlands by Yi ZHOU Master of Science in Environment Engineering, Wuhan University born in Hubei, China This dissertation has been approved by the promotor: Prof. dr. K. Vairavamoorthy Composition of the doctoral committee: Chairman Rector Magnificus TU Delft Vice-Chairman Rector IHE Delft Prof. dr. K. Vairavamoorthy IHE Delft / TU Delft, promotor Independent members: Prof.dr.ir. L.C. Rietveld TU Delft Prof.dr.ir. C. Zevenbergen IHE Delft / TU Delft Prof.dr. S. Mohan Indian Institute of Technology, Madras, India Prof.dr. J. Xia Wuhan University, China Prof.dr. ir. A. E. Mynett TU Delft/ IHE Delft, reserve member CRC Press/Balkema is an imprint of the Taylor & Francis Group, an informal business © 2018, Yi Zhou Although all care is taken to ensure integrity and the quality of this publication and the information herein, no responsibility is assumed by the publishers, the author nor IHE Delft for any damage to the property or persons as a result of operation or use of this publication and/or the information contained herein. A pdf version of this work will be made available as Open Access via http://repository.tudelft.nl/ihe This version is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-Non Commercial4.0 International License, http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/ Published by: CRC Press/Balkema PO Box 11320, 2301 EH Leiden, The Netherlands [email protected] www.crcpress.com – www.taylorandfrancis.com ISBN 978-1-138-32281-3 v Abstract Water distribution systems are a major component of a water utility’s asset and may constitute over half of the overall cost of a water supply system. They are critical in delivering water to consumers from a variety of sources. Pipe failures within the distribution system can have a serious impact to both people’s daily life and to the wastage of limited, high quality water that has undergone extensive treatment. Hence it is important to maintain the condition and integrity of distribution systems. This thesis presents a whole-life cost optimisation model for the rehabilitation of water distribution systems. This model allows decision makers to prioritize their rehabilitation strategy in a proactive and cost-effective manner. The optimisation model presented in this thesis, combines a pipe breakage number prediction model with a pipe criticality assessment model, that enables the creation of a well-constructed and more tightly constrained optimisation model. This results in improved convergence and reduced computational time and effort. The resulting optimisation model is a multiple-objective one that is solved using an improved genetic algorithm technique. The first model developed is a pipe breakage number prediction model. This model combines information on the physical characteristics of the pipes (i.e., pipe age, diameter, length, material etc.) with historical information on breakage and failure rates. It uses this information to group pipes based on their condition and general deterioration tendency. A weighted multiple nonlinear regression analysis is applied to develop a model describing the condition of different the pipe groups. The second model is a criticality assessment model. This model combines a pipe’s condition with its hydraulic significance (i.e. how important a pipe is to hydraulic performance of the network), to establish its criticality to the network. The criticality index is calculated using a multi-criteria decision making method, the Technique for Order of Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS). The thesis applies a modified TOPSIS approach that avoids the problem that the rank calculation method is inconsistent with the TOPSIS principle, common in traditional TOPSIS. The application of a pipe criticality assessment model enables the vi preliminarily screening of pipes in a water distribution system and allows the optimisation model to focus its efforts on those pipes that are most important for a rehabilitation strategy, improving convergence and computational performance. The third model developed, is a whole life cost optimal rehabilitation model. It is a multiple-objective and multiple-stage model. The objectives of the model include whole-life cost minimization and benefit maximization. Benefit is articulated in terms of burst number minimization and hydraulic reliability maximisation. The objectives are optimized subject to financial and hydraulic performance constraints. The optimisation model is solved using genetic algorithms, namely a modified NSGA-II. The modifications applied to the NSGA-II, includes an induced mutation process that improves the search process. The application of the optimisation model, provides decision makers with a suite of rehabilitation decisions that minimise the whole life cost of the network while maximising its long-term performance. To demonstrate the efficacy of the developed models, the thesis includes their application to case-study networks. The results are described and discussed in detail in terms their utility from the perspective of a decision maker. It is envisaged that the developed modelling tools will be used by water utilities to improve their decision making process in relation to pipe rehabilitation and more generally asset management. vii Samenvatting Waterdistributiesystemen zijn een belangrijk onderdeel van het bezit van een drinkwaterbedrijf en kunnen meer dan de helft van de totale kosten van een watervoorzieningssysteem uitmaken. Ze zijn van cruciaal belang voor het leveren van water aan consumenten uit verschillende bronnen. Pijpstoringen in het distributiesysteem kunnen een ernstige impact hebben op het dagelijks leven van mensen en op de verspilling van een water van hoge kwaliteit dat een uitgebreide behandeling heeft ondergaan en slechts beperkt beschikbaar is. Daarom is het belangrijk om de staat en de volledigheid van distributiesystemen te behouden. Dit proefschrift presenteert een kosten-optimalisatiemodel voor het herstel van waterdistributiesystemen gedurende de hele levensduur (life-cycle costing). Met dit model kunnen besluitvormers hun strategie voor herstelwerkzaamheden op een proactieve en kosteneffectieve manier prioriteren. Het optimalisatiemodel dat in dit proefschrift wordt gepresenteerd, combineert een model dat de conditie van pijpleidingen beoordeeld met een kritisch beoordelingsmodel, waardoor een goed geconstrueerd en efficiënter optimalisatiemodel kan worden gecreëerd. Dit resulteert in verbeterde convergentie en verminderde computertijd en -vermogen. Het resulterende optimalisatiemodel is een multi-objectief model dat wordt opgelost met behulp van een verbeterde genetische algoritme-techniek. Het eerste ontwikkelde model is een voorspellingsmodel voor het aantal leidingbreuken. Dit model combineert informatie over de fysieke kenmerken van de buizen (d.w.z. de leeftijd van de pijp, diameter, lengte, materiaal, enz.) met historische informatie over de verhouding van het aantal falen en breuken. Het gebruikt deze informatie om leidingen te groeperen op basis van hun toestand en algemene neiging tot verslechtering. Een gewogen meervoudige niet-lineaire regressieanalyse wordt toegepast om een model te ontwikkelen dat de toestand van verschillende pijpgroepen beschrijft. Het tweede model is een kritikaliteitsbeoordelingsmodel. Dit model combineert de conditie van een pijpleiding met zijn hydraulische significantie (dat wil zeggen, hoe belangrijk een viii leiding is voor de hydraulische prestaties van het netwerk), om vast te stellen hoe krititiek deze is voor het netwerk. Een index die het kritisch karakter aangeeft wordt berekend met behulp van een beslissingsmethode gebaseerd op meerdere criteria, de Technique for Order of Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS). Het proefschrift past een aangepaste TOPSIS-benadering toe die het probleem vermijdt dat de rangberekeningsmethode niet strookt met het TOPSIS-principe, dat gebruikelijk is in traditionele TOPSIS. De toepassing van een kritikaliteitsbeoordelingsmodel voor pijpleidingen maakt de preliminaire screening van leidingen in een waterdistributiesysteem mogelijk en stelt het optimalisatiemodel in staat om inspanningen te concentreren op die buizen die het belangrijkst zijn voor een herstelstrategie, waardoor convergentie en computationele prestaties worden verbeterd. Het derde model dat is ontwikkeld, is een herstelkosten-optimalisatiemodel toegepast op de hele levensduur (life-cycle costing). Het is een model met meerdere doelen en meerdere fasen. De doelstellingen van het model omvatten de kostenminimalisatie voor de gehele levenscyclus en maximalisatie van de voordelen. Het voordeel wordt uitgedrukt in termen van het aantal minimale leidingbreuken en de maximale hydraulische betrouwbaarheid. De doelstellingen zijn geoptimaliseerd voor financiële en hydraulische prestatiebeperkingen. Het optimalisatiemodel wordt bepaald met behulp van genetische algoritmen, namelijk een gemodificeerde NSGA-II. De modificaties toegepast
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