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MWE Multi-Species Conservation Plan

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MWE Multi-Species Conservation Plan Affected Environment and Biological Resources Chapter 3 CHAPTER 3. AFFECTED ENVIRONMENT AND BIOLOGICAL RESOURCES 3.1 INTRODUCTION This section presents the available life history, spatial distribution, habitat requirements, reproductive ecology, food habits, and behavioral characteristics information for each of the Covered Species. The ecological baseline condition for each Covered Species is summarized. This information represents the best scientific and commercial information available at the time of the Midwest Wind Energy Multi-Species Habitat Conservation Plan (MWE) development. The information presented in this chapter serves the following purposes. 1. Defines and describes the current ecological baseline for each of the Covered Species used to conduct the take assessment (Chapter 4); 2. Defines the current status and ongoing threats for each species as they relate to the development of the MWE biological goals and objectives (Chapter 5); 3. Provides the ecological justification and scientific foundation for the development of MWE avoidance, minimization, and mitigation measures (Chapter 5); and 4. Defines the existing knowledge base for each of the Covered Species used to develop the MWE monitoring and adaptive management programs (Chapter 7). Available range-wide and Plan Area–specific information is provided in the following chapter sections for each Covered Species. Climate change is an ongoing threat to all Covered Species. In addition to climate change, increasing exposure to the disease white-nose syndrome (WNS) is a growing threat to the covered bat species. The mechanisms for and the population-level threats of climate change and WNS to Covered Species are similar and are described in this introductory section. Each of the covered bat species accounts also contains a species-specific discussion of the species response to WNS. 3.1.1 Climate Change The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration defines climate change as “a non-random change in climate that is measured over several decades or longer. The change may be due to natural or human-induced causes”.1 The following summarizes observed and predicted temperature and precipitation trends for the Plan Area, as presented in Climate Change Impacts in the United States (U.S. Global Change Research Program 2014). 1 http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/outreach/glossary.shtml#C Midwest Wind Energy Multi-Species Conservation Plan April 2016 Public Review Draft Page 3-1 Affected Environment and Biological Resources Chapter 3 The average temperature in the United States (U.S.) has increased by 1.3 to 1.9 degrees Fahrenheit (°F) since 1895. In the Plan Area, annual average temperatures for 1991-2012 compared to 1901-1960 have increased from 0.0 to 0.5 °F across the south central portion of the region to greater than 1.5°F across the northern Midwest. The amount of future warming will depend on changes in atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases. Model projections (CMIP5) for the later part of this century (2071-2099) relative to a 1970-1999 base period show that annual average temperature increases in the Midwest will range from a low of 3oF for a scenario that assumes substantial emission reductions by 2050 and continuing to 2100 (Representative Concentration Pathways [RCP] 2.6) to a high of 9 to 10oF for a scenario that assumes continued increases in emissions (RCP 8.5). Similar to recent temperature trends, the amount of future warming will increase in the Midwest when moving from south to north. Recent trends in precipitation for the Midwest show that for the 1991-2012 period, annual average totals ranged from a low of -5 to 0 percent for the upper Wisconsin/Michigan region to a high of greater that 15 percent for parts of Iowa and Minnesota compared to the 1970-1999 base period. Predictions of seasonal precipitation changes for the 2071-2099 period compared to the 1970-1999 base period include the following for the low and high RCP scenarios: 1. For scenario RCP 2.6, (a) 0 to 8 percent for winter, (b) 0 to 10 percent for spring, (c) no change for summer, and (d) 0 to 3 percent for fall. 2. For scenario RCP 8.5, (a) 10 to 28 percent for winter, (b) 10 to 22 percent for spring, (c) - 9 to 0 percent for summer, and (d) 0 to 10 percent for fall. Climate change will result in effects on the ecological conditions that support Covered Species and that are expected to have population-level effects on the Covered Species. 3.1.1.1 Effects of Climate Change on Covered Bat Species The effects of climate change on covered bat species populations are unknown. However, several aspects of bat life history may be affected by changes in climate, including access to food and water, rate of energy expenditure, reproduction and development, timing and location of hibernation, and duration of torpor2 (Sherwin et al. 2012). A high degree of uncertainty is inherent in predictions of species responses based on complex ecosystem processes (Bertreaux et al. 2006). On a broad scale, it is expected that climate change will affect temperate insectivorous bats, primarily by potentially shifting geographic range and by altering the phenology of plant and insect cycles, leading to shifts in reproductive timing and success (Rodenhouse et al. 2009). For example, warmer winters are predicted to shift the range of hibernating bat species northward, assuming appropriate cave structures are present, as the thermal effects on hibernation energetics become relaxed (Humphries et al. 2002). 2 Torpor is a state of decreased physiological activity in an animal, usually by a reduced body temperature and metabolic rate. Torpor enables animals to survive periods of reduced food availability. Midwest Wind Energy Multi-Species Conservation Plan April 2016 Public Review Draft Page 3-2 Affected Environment and Biological Resources Chapter 3 At the population level, temperature changes have the potential to affect covered bat species in various ways. Temperature directly affects energy consumption in bats during hibernation (Speakman and Thomas 2003). For example, little brown bats (Myotis lucifugus) require low stable temperatures that allow them to use minimal fat reserves and survive a hibernation of 6 months or more (Humphries et al. 2002), during which time prey is unavailable to replenish energy supplies. Although caves are buffered against changes in ambient temperatures, large, permanent changes in climate will change cave climates and render existing cave roosts less suitable or unsuitable for bats and could render currently unsuitable caves suitable for roosting. During the summer, bats depend on warm temperatures to promote rapid growth in young which must be able to survive on their own just a few months after being born (Davis and Hitchcock 1965; Fenton 1970; Humphrey and Cope 1977). Loeb and Winters (2013) modeled the effects of climate change on the Indiana bat and predicted that due to warming temperatures that the Indiana bat’s main maternity areas would shift from the Midwest into the northeast and Appalachian mountains and potentially even into areas that currently have no maternity records. The other Myotis species could potentially be impacted in a similar manor and have shifting maternity use patterns. Climate change will affect the timing and abundance of insect prey, which may affect bat foraging rates, energy balances and survival (Parmesan 2006). Results from a 16-year mark- recapture study in New Hampshire indicated that the survival of adult female little brown bats was highest in years with high cumulative summer precipitation and high insect availability from April to October (Frick et al. 2010a). Additionally, young born earlier in the season had a higher chance of surviving than later-born young. Temperature changes may indirectly change reproductive activity at maternity roosts by decreasing the availability of water. For example, Adams (2010) conducted a post hoc comparison of bat capture rates from 1996 to 2008 to ambient weather variables in northern Colorado foothills habitat for six bat species. A higher proportion of females captured were non- reproductive during hotter and drier conditions. Adams and Hayes (2008) attached passive integrative transponder (PIT) tags to 24 female fringed myotis (Myotis thysanodes) and recorded their visits to an artificial water source. Lactating females visited water 13 times more than nonlactating females. 3.1.1.2 Effects of Climate Change on Covered Bird Species The magnitude of threats posed to covered bird species by climate change is unknown. However, potential impacts include shifting distribution patterns of bird species, timing of biological activities and processes, and health of populations. Climate change may affect both the nesting and wintering habitats of Kirtland’s warbler. Continued increases in temperature and evaporation will likely reduce the acreage of the jack pine forest on which Kirtland’s warbler depend (NAST 2000), as well as increase the susceptibility of forests to pests and disease (Bentz et al. 2010; Cudmore et al. 2010; Man 2010; Midwest Wind Energy Multi-Species Conservation Plan April 2016 Public Review Draft Page 3-3 Affected Environment and Biological Resources Chapter 3 Safranyik et al. 2010). However, warmer weather and increased levels of carbon dioxide may lead to greater tree growth on marginal forestlands that are currently temperature limited and result in conditions conducive to forest fires, which favor jack pine propagation and potentially Kirtland’s warbler habitat (NAST 2000). Different greenhouse gas emissions scenarios suggest a range of possible Kirtland’s warbler distribution changes, including a reduction of suitable habitat in Michigan and an expansion of suitable habitat in Wisconsin and Minnesota (Prasad et al. 2007). Kirtland’s warbler wintering habitat in the Bahamas may be threatened by sea level rise caused by climate change, as 80 percent of that country’s land surface is less than 1 meter above sea level and rising seas caused by melting glaciers have been implicated in past declines of Kirtland’s warbler (Amadon 1953; Mayfield 1992).
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