CASE STUDY streamflow forecasts toaidwatermanagement. Waterworking withMelbourne toimprove seasonal resource management.Soin2010,theBureau started development—posed challengestoMelbourne’s water and variableclimate,populationgrowth andurban combined withprojected impactsduetoachanging Severity ofthe1997–2009MillenniumDrought— resource management Forecasting toimprove Melbourne’swater communication onforecast performance. making withinthewaterindustry, andenabledbetter Bureau onhowtheforecasts cansupportdecision- forecasts Water, forMelbourne offered insightforthe to thecontinueddevelopmentofseasonalstreamflow Collaboration betweenthetwoorganisationshasled the nextthree months. indicate thelikelyvolumeofcatchmentinflowsintocity’s majorwatersupply reservoirs for improved informationtoaidwaterresource Theseforecasts managementforMelbourne. The Bureau ofMeteorology’s seasonalstreamflow forecasts provide Melbourne Water with forecasts for Melbourne Better water resources Top image:Maroondah reservoir catchmentsÿandÿreservoirs Melbournesÿwaterÿsupply Geelong GreenvaleÿReservoir YanÿYeanÿReservoir 0 Sÿtÿrÿaÿiÿt kilometres Bÿaÿsÿs # 20 Werribee Portsea MELBOURNE Pÿhÿiÿlÿlÿiÿp 40 Pÿoÿrÿt Bÿaÿy Craigieburn MapÿRef:ÿÿ20160278ÿÿÿÿÿ11/05/2016 Wallan Flinders Whittlesea
YarraÿRiver Frankston Hastings Hurstbridge Dandenong Reservoir Sugarloaf Kinglake Belgrave Lilydale Cranbourne Western Healesville Yea Port Pakenham River Gembrook n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n Reservoir Maroondah LangÿLang Warburton Maroondah, O’Shannassy, UpperYarra and Thomson— locations forMelbourne’s fourmajor reservoirs— the accuracyofmonthlyforecasts atfivemajorinflow Together, theBureauWater andMelbourne evaluated Testing theforecast accuracy using historicalstreamflow records. substantially higherusingtheBureau’s model,than was observed(alsocalledthe‘tercile hitrate’)was the numberoftimesforecast matchedwhat the informationpreviously available.Foreachoutlook, The Bureau’s modelproduced betterforecasts than for forecasting inflowsforeachlocationandseason. the useofhistoricalstreamflow records (orclimatology) comparing theBureau’s forecasting modeloutputto n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n Reservoir O'Shannassy n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n CardiniaÿReservoir TaragoÿReservoir SilvanÿReservoir Reservoir UpperÿYarra n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n Reservoir Thomson planning WaterMelbourne Forecasts support
1.0 Bureau’s models show About Melbourne Water 0. improved forecast As the wholesale supplier of Melbourne’s drinking