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Who Watches the Watchmen? Local News and Police Behavior in the United States∗

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Who Watches the Watchmen? Local News and Police Behavior in the United States∗ Who Watches the Watchmen? Local News and Police Behavior in the United States∗ Nicola Mastrorocco Arianna Ornaghi Trinity College Dublin University of Warwick November 13, 2020 [Please click here for latest version.] Abstract Do the police respond to media coverage of crime? In this paper, we study how a decline in news coverage of local crime affects municipal police departments in the United States. Exogenous variation in local news is from acquisitions of local TV stations by a large broadcast group, Sinclair. To control for other content changes that might be induced by Sinclair but are not municipality-specific, we implement a triple differences-in-differences design that interacts the timing of the acquisitions with an indicator for whether the municipality is covered by the news at baseline, a proxy for exposure to the local news shock. Using a unique dataset of almost 300,000 newscasts, we show that stations that are acquired by Sinclair decrease their coverage of local crime. This matters for policing: after Sinclair enters a media market, covered municipalities experience 10% lower violent crime clearance rates relative to non- covered municipalities. Finally, we provide evidence to suggest that the effect is consistent with a decrease in the salience of crime in the public opinion. ∗Nicola Mastrorocco: [email protected]; Arianna Ornaghi: [email protected]. We thank Daron Ace- moglu, Charles Angelucci, Elliott Ash, Jack Blumenau, Livio Di Lonardo, Mirko Draca, Ruben Durante, James Fenske, Selim Gulesci, Massimo Morelli, Ben Olken, Aurelie Ouss, Cyrus Samii, James Snyder, Jessica Stahl, Stephane Wolton, and seminar and conference participants at Bologna, Bocconi, the Economics of Crime Online Seminar, Glasgow, the Galatina Summer Meetings, LSE, NEWEPS, the OPESS Online Seminar, Petralia, TDC, and Warwick for their comments and suggestions. Matilde Casamonti, Yaoyun Cui, Federico Frattini, and Doireann O’Brien provided excellent research assistance. We received funding for the project from the British Academy and the Political Economic and Public Economics Research Group at the University of Warwick. 1 1 Introduction Law enforcement is one of the most important functions of U.S. local governments, yet we have a limited understanding of what factors shape the incentive structure of police departments (Owens (2020)). Recent years have seen an increased debate on the extent to which civil society is able to influence the behavior of police officers. In this paper, we investigate a force that might have a role to play in this respect: local media. Local media, and local news in particular, influence the behavior of public officials through two main channels. First, by providing information to the public, the news facilitates monitoring (Ferraz and Finan (2011), Lim et al. (2015), Snyder Jr and Strömberg (2010)). This is especially true at the local level, where the news garners high levels of trust (Knight Foundation (2018)) and serves as one of the few democratic watchdogs (Rolnik et al. (2019)). Second, what news the media cover influences perceptions of topics that are salient in the political debate (DellaVigna and Kaplan (2007), Martin and Yurukoglu (2017), Mastrorocco and Minale (2018)), potentially affecting the demand for specific policies (Galletta and Ash (2019)). What makes local news uniquely positioned to influence police behavior, perhaps even above and beyond that of other public officials, is the fact that it focuses on a topic closely intertwined with policing: crime. In local TV news – the focus of our study – crime is the most popular topic, appearing in more than 20% of all local stories. Considering the highly decentralized nature of law enforcement in the United States, we argue that this makes studying the relationship between local news and the police first order. We study how changes in TV news coverage of local crime impact the behavior of police officers. Our proxy for police behavior are clearance rates, i.e. crimes cleared over total crimes.1 To get exogenous variation in news content, we exploit the fact that in the last ten years the local TV mar- ket has seen a large increase in concentration driven by broadcast groups acquiring high numbers of local TV stations, and that acquisitions are likely to affect content (Stahl (2016)). We focus in particular on the most active group in this sense: Sinclair. Sinclair acquisitions affect content in two ways. First, Sinclair reduces local news in favor of a national focus (Martin and McCrain (2019)). This gives us variation in news coverage of local crime, which is the change in content we are interested in studying. In addition to this, Sinclair – a right-leaning media group – also makes content more conservative. To control for this, we 1More precisely, clearance rates are defined as total number of crimes cleared by arrest or exceptional means over total number of crimes. A crime is considered cleared if at least one person has been arrested, charged, and turned over for prosecution or if the offender has been identified, but external circumstances prevent an arrest. Clearance rates are highly sensitive to what resources are allocated to investigations and have often been used by economists to study police behavior (see, among others, Mas (2006), Shi (2009), and Premkumar (2020)). 2 make use of the fact that all households in a media market receive the same television offerings.2 This means that once Sinclair enters a media market, all municipalities experience its conservative messaging. However, only some municipalities are exposed to the shock in news coverage of local crime. Our proxy for exposure is the baseline probability that a municipality appears in the news. The intuition is that the decline in local coverage driven by acquisitions should only matter for munici- palities that are likely to appear in the news in the first place (i.e. covered municipalities). Instead, municipalities that are never in the news (i.e. non-covered municipalities) should not experience any change and, as a result, function as our control group. More precisely, we define covered mu- nicipalities as municipalities mentioned in the news more than the median municipality in 2010. Our empirical strategy is a triple differences-in-differences design that combines variation from the staggered timing of Sinclair acquisitions with cross-sectional variation across municipalities in whether they are covered by the news at baseline. For this to identify a causal effect, it must be the case that covered and non-covered municipalities are on parallel trends. We provide evidence supporting this assumption using an event study specification that allows the relative effect of Sinclair in covered and non-covered municipalities to vary over time. We begin by characterizing in detail how Sinclair acquisitions affect coverage of local crime. We do so using a novel dataset of transcripts of almost 9.5 millions stories in 300,000 newscasts. These data allow us track news coverage of 323 stations weekly from 2010 to 2017, which represents a significantly larger time and geographic coverage with respect to previous studies of local TV news content (see, for example, Moskowitz (Forthcoming)). We use these data to quantify the change in coverage of local crime induced by Sinclair acqui- sitions. To do so, we identify crime stories using a pattern-based sequence-classification method that labels a story as being about crime if it contains a "crime bigram." That is, if it contains two word combinations (i.e. bigrams) that are much more likely to appear in crime-related stories of the Metropolitan Desk Section of the New York Times than in non-crime related ones. In addition, we assign stories to municipalities based on mentions of the municipality’s name. We find that ownership matters for content: once acquired by Sinclair, local TV stations decrease news coverage of local crime. In particular, covered municipalities are 2.2 percentage points less likely to be mentioned in a crime story after a station gets acquired by Sinclair compared to non- covered municipalities. The effect is significant at the 1% level and economically important, corre- sponding to almost 25% of the outcome mean in 2010. Examining the timing of content changes, 2A media market is a region where the population receives the same television and radio station offerings. By definition, each municipality belongs to a specific media market. There are 210 media markets in the United States. Section 2.1 provides further details. 3 we find a reduction in local crime coverage in the year that immediately follows the acquisition, with the effect increasing over time. Other stations in the same media market do not change their crime coverage after Sinclair entry: the main result is explained by an editorial decision of Sinclair. How does the change in news coverage of local crime impact policing? We estimate that after Sin- clair enters a media market, covered municipalities experience 4.5 percentage points lower violent crime clearance rates relative to non-covered municipalities. The effect is precisely estimated, and corresponds to 10% of the baseline mean. This shows that there is scope for external forces to exert an influence on police behavior, despite the fact that police officers are protected by strong union contracts and civil service laws. Using an event study specification, we find no difference between covered and non-covered mu- nicipalities in the four years before Sinclair enters the media market. The effect appears within the first year after treatment and becomes smaller over time, which is potentially consistent with view- ers learning that the signal on local crime that they receive from Sinclair is biased, and adjusting for it based on their own observation or other media sources.3 In contrast, property crime clearance rates do not experience a similar decline. This heterogeneity can be explained by the fact that local TV news has a clear violent crime focus.
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