Report
Transit Strategic Business Plan and Ridership Growth Strategy: Five-Year Update
Transit Service Plan
Prepared for the City of Niagara Falls by IBI Group November 20, 2020
IBI GROUP REPORT TRANSIT STRATEGIC BUSINESS PLAN AND RIDERSHIP GROWTH STRATEGY: FIVE-YEAR UPDATE Prepared for the City of Niagara Falls
Table of Contents
1 Introduction ...... 1 1.1 Background ...... 2 1.2 Study Approach and Objectives ...... 3 1.3 Report Structure ...... 4
2 Key Conclusions from Needs Assessment ...... 5
3 Service Plan Foundation ...... 10 3.1 Service Standards ...... 10 3.2 Target Service Hours ...... 12 3.3 WEGO Policy Changes ...... 12 3.4 Transfer Policy Changes ...... 13 3.5 High School Student Recommendations ...... 13 3.6 Bus Operator Scheduling Recommendations ...... 14
4 Five Year Plan – Years 1 to 5 ...... 16 4.1 Annual Network Changes ...... 16 4.2 Ridership Projections ...... 31
5 Ten-Year Plan – Years 6 to 10 ...... 32 5.1 Fixed-Route Changes ...... 32 5.2 Demand-Responsive Service Changes ...... 34
6 Infrastructure Plan ...... 35 6.1 Buses ...... 35 6.2 Transit Services Facility ...... 37 6.3 Transit Terminals/Hubs ...... 38 6.4 Stops and Shelters ...... 40
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Table of Contents (continued)
7 Transit Technology Plan ...... 42 7.1 Data Dashboards ...... 42 7.2 Automated Data Reports from CleverReports ...... 44 7.3 Conclusions ...... 45
8 Financial and Staffing Plan ...... 46 8.1 Financial Plan ...... 46 8.2 Staffing Plan ...... 49
9 Conclusions and Recommendations ...... 51 9.1 Key Conclusions ...... 51 9.2 Recommendations ...... 52
List of Appendices
Appendix A – Organization and Staffing Review Memorandum ...... A-1
Appendix B – Data Systems Review Memorandum ...... B-1
Appendix C – Service and Route Review Needs Assessment Report ...... C-1
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Table of Contents (continued)
Table of Exhibits
Exhibit 3.1: Current Niagara Falls Transit Service Standards ...... 10 Exhibit 4.1: Niagara Falls Transit Daytime Network (100-series routes) ...... 17 Exhibit 4.2: Niagara Falls Transit Evening, Sunday, and Holiday Network (200-series routes) ...... 18 Exhibit 4.3: Year 1 Service and Revenue Vehicle Hour Changes ...... 20 Exhibit 4.4: Proposed Monday to Saturday Daytime Service with Year 1 Improvements ...... 21 Exhibit 4.5: Year 2 Service and Revenue Vehicle Hour Changes ...... 23 Exhibit 4.6: Proposed Sunday & Holiday Service with Year 2 Improvements .... 24 Exhibit 4.7: Year 3 Service and Revenue Vehicle Hour Changes ...... 26 Exhibit 4.8: Year 4 Service and Revenue Vehicle Hour Changes ...... 27 Exhibit 4.9: Year 5 Service and Revenue Vehicle Hour Changes ...... 28 Exhibit 4.10: Proposed Year 5 Niagara Falls Transit Network ...... 29 Exhibit 4.11: Summary of Revenue Vehicle Hour Changes in Years 1–5 ...... 30 Exhibit 4.12: Service Plan Ridership Estimate in Years 1–5 ...... 31 Exhibit 5.1: Future Niagara Falls Transit Service Expansion Direction ...... 33 Exhibit 5.2: Potential Fixed-Route Service Additions in Years 6–10 ...... 34 Exhibit 6.1: Transit Fleet Summary – October 2020 ...... 35 Exhibit 6.2: Summary of Five-Year Bus Requirements ...... 37 Exhibit 7.1: Sample Custom NFT Data Dashboard ...... 43 Exhibit 7.2: On-Time Performance Report from CleverReports ...... 44 Exhibit 8.1: Five-Year Service Plan Budget Forecast ...... 47 Exhibit 8.2: Bus Operator Requirements – Years 1 to 5 ...... 50
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1 Introduction
The City of Niagara Falls has initiated a study to identify its future public transit needs over the next five years as an update to the Transit Strategic Business Plan and Ridership Growth Strategy completed for the City in 2009. That report has served as the basis for transit service planning and investment since 2014. The timing of this study is important as the Region considers its path forward with regard to regionalizing public transit services. The scope of this review focuses on the city (urban) transit services delivered by the City. The key steps in this update include a critical review of the transit services provided, identification of challenges and opportunities related to individual transit routes and the Niagara Falls Transit system as a whole, and a new service plan for the next five years.
November 20, 2020 1 IBI GROUP REPORT TRANSIT STRATEGIC BUSINESS PLAN AND RIDERSHIP GROWTH STRATEGY: FIVE-YEAR UPDATE Prepared for the City of Niagara Falls 1.1 Background The City’s Transit Services Division is responsible for the planning, management and operation of the conventional and specialized transit services within the city. The conventional transit service, Niagara Falls Transit (NFT), consists of 25 fixed routes and demand-response services operated in the City. The specialized transit service, Chair-A-Van, is delivered under contract by a not-for-profit organization. As part of the conventional service, two routes that are part of the Visitor Transportation Service (VTS), or WEGO, the Red and Blue Lines, are included. These provide transit service for visitors and tourists in addition to residents. Transit Services also operates four inter-municipal transit routes on behalf of the Regional Municipality of Niagara providing connections to St. Catharines, Niagara-on-the-Lake, Welland, and Fort Erie. To enhance coverage for city travellers, TransCab service is offered in several areas of the city that do not have conventional transit service. The transit service plan focuses on the city’s conventional transit service (NFT), including the WEGO Red and Blue Lines, and TransCab services available to NFT riders. The plan does not review other WEGO services, inter-municipal (Niagara Region) transit services, or Chair-A-Van. In 2018, NFT carried nearly 1.8 million riders, representing a large increase over the past five years. This ridership growth is due to a combination of factors including an increase in international student enrollment at local post-secondary institutions and on-going development throughout the city and Niagara Region. This ridership growth has also been achieved as a result of the implementation of the 2009 Transit Strategic Business Plan and Ridership Growth Strategy commencing in 2014. Since that time, a number of changes to NFT services have occurred, some of which are based on the Transit Plan: The former Falls Shuttle Services were re-branded and integrated with the Niagara Parks Commission service as WEGO; Inter-municipal transit services were introduced by the Regional Municipality of Niagara operating as Niagara Region Transit. The City operates some of these services under contract to the Region. Transit services for the post-secondary institutions in the region are now fully public; NFT routes have been updated to operate a more grid-like network;
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NFT service now operates routes with a mix of 30-minute and 60- minute frequencies, and service spans have been increased to provide more late-night coverage; and New vehicles have been added to the NFT fleet, specifically some 60-foot (articulated) buses. Given these changes, it is important to review the current state of the NFT system, identify progress made since the implementation of the Transit Plan in 2014, and determine appropriate next steps to ensure future success.
1.2 Study Approach and Objectives The primary objective of this study is to update the 2009 Transit Strategic Business Plan and Ridership Growth Strategy by responding to changes in the city since the introduction of that plan. Further, this study will help Transit Services meet goals established in the 2009 Transit Plan and identify opportunities to increase ridership through the next five years. In order to achieve these objectives, this study consists of the following six tasks: Review current staffing and organizational challenges and needs (Task 1); Identify opportunities to utilize transit data collected through existing technology systems to better monitor and manage the system (Task 2); Assess current and future route, route network, and service level needs (Task 3), including those related to: New service areas; The location of transit hubs; The potential for increased use of transit by students; WEGO; Transfer points and policies; Develop a five-year transit service action plan with resource and budget estimates, including future staffing and transit fleet requirements (Tasks 4 and 5); and Suggest improvements to bus operator work schedules (Task 6).
November 20, 2020 3 IBI GROUP REPORT TRANSIT STRATEGIC BUSINESS PLAN AND RIDERSHIP GROWTH STRATEGY: FIVE-YEAR UPDATE Prepared for the City of Niagara Falls 1.3 Report Structure This report presents the five-year transit service plan for Niagara Falls Transit (Tasks 4 and 5). The plan is described in the following eight chapters: Key Conclusions from Needs Assessment summarizes the major themes and next steps identified in the review of NFT’s current system and service, providing an overall direction for the new service plan; Service Plan Foundation outlines the overarching service and policy changes that support the new service plan, including changes to service levels, WEGO transfers, and transit operator work schedules; Five-Year Plan presents a year-by-year set of changes for the NFT network centred around four key themes; Ten-Year Plan identifies future areas for transit service, recommends longer-term transit corridors, and identifies future implementations of demand-responsive transit; Infrastructure Plan describes the infrastructure needs associated with the service changes in this plan, including bus needs, transit terminal and facility needs, and stop and shelter needs; Transit Technology Plan summarizes opportunities for Transit Services to leverage the transit data collected by automated systems and use it to identify and monitor key service trends; Financial and Staffing Plan describes the budgetary and staffing needs associated with the recommended five-year service changes; and Conclusions and Recommendations presents the main findings from this service plan and recommends the adoption of the plan by City Council. In addition to the above chapters, the following three appendices are provided to support the service plan: Appendix A – Organization and Staffing Review Report; Appendix B – Data Systems Review Memorandum; and Appendix C – Service and Route Review Needs Assessment Report.
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2 Key Conclusions from Needs Assessment
The study of the current NFT network completed as part of the Task 3 Needs Assessment (Appendix C) yielded the following conclusions, which have guided the development of the five- and ten-year service plans (see Chapters 4 and 5). In general, the issues raised from these conclusions indicated a requirement to increase transit service levels, and accordingly funding, in order to address the identified needs. The main conclusions identified in the Needs Assessment relate to six key themes, namely, demographics and land use, travel patterns, operating costs, operating efficiency, passenger transfers, and staffing.
Demographics & Land Use The city’s population has grown at a reasonable pace over the past 20 years, but it is expected that the rate of growth will increase in the near future. Demographics are also changing, with a high proportion of seniors living in the city, but also a large number of students attending local post-secondary institutions. Transit service will need to cater to these groups as well as the growing population. System ridership has grown rapidly between 2014 and 2018, primarily due to post-secondary student ridership through the U-Pass program, although this level of growth is expected to level off in the near future. To attract more high school riders on NFT, Transit Services may wish to consider a high school student-focused transit promotional program, and should meet with the school boards to explore opportunities for these students to use NFT.
Travel Patterns City ridership on the WEGO Red Line has grown to represent more than half of all ridership on this route. Transit Services may wish to operate a parallel, local service on Lundy’s Lane and terminate the transfer agreement with WEGO. Recent transit changes include the introduction of weekday GO Rail service to and from Toronto, which is expected to become more frequent in the coming years. At the same time, there is potential for transit regionalization which could impact NFT’s operations. Even
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with these changes, a solid foundational plan is still required to provide transit service to individuals in the city. Travel patterns within the city are generally unchanged from five years ago. Still, there are a large number of relatively short internal trips that do not use public transit, suggesting more can be done to capture these trips. However, these travel patterns will be influenced by future growth and development to the south and southeast areas of the city.
Operating Costs In general, a number of NFT routes do not meet service standards for frequency or span. Revenue vehicle hours and kilometres have grown for both 100- and 200-series and WEGO city services, but not as quickly as ridership on these services. This growth has raised productivity (boardings per service hour) for the combined services, but productivity is still relatively low for 100- and 200-series services on their own. Operating costs for NFT service have grown along with revenue vehicle hours, but revenues have declined over the past five years. Together, these changes led to a lower revenue/cost ratio of 43%, below the 50% target. Revenue/cost ratios for individual NFT routes are generally below standards, averaging only 13% across the system. No Base or Local routes meet the service standard targets of 55% and 40%, respectively. Only one evening/Sunday route (204) meets the evening/Sunday service standard target of 20% R/C.
Operating Efficiency No routes operate with a headway less than 30 minutes, and no routes operate past 9 p.m. on Sundays. The separate weekday/Saturday evening and Sunday route network is not as comprehensive as the weekday/Saturday daytime route network, leaving a number of geographic gaps in service. Some route frequencies are also lower during the evenings and on Sundays. Two weekday and Saturday daytime routes (104 and 110) perform above standards in terms of net boardings and boardings per hour. Both routes achieve more than 35 boardings/hour, exceeding the service standard of 25 boardings/hour. Three evening/Sunday routes (203, 204, and 210) also perform above standards, achieving more
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than 30 boardings/hour, well above the service standard of 10 boardings/hour. Seven NFT routes perform below standards in terms of boardings per hour; routes 106, 107, 108, 112, 209, 211, and 213. All achieve fewer than 10 boardings/hour, not meeting the service standards for daytime local routes (15 boardings/hour) and evening routes (10 boardings/hour). Many NFT routes are circuitous and indirect, providing good coverage in neighbourhoods as opposed to more direct (shorter and faster) trips between start and end points. A number of NFT routes also overlap one another and provide duplicate service. Some routes include one-way loops to turn around and further increase coverage at the expense of running time.
Transfers NFT’s transfer policies are relatively consistent with neighbouring transit systems although less flexible than some peer agencies. Consideration could be given to reviewing and revising the transfer policies, especially as the NFT route network expands and trip lengths grow.
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Staffing Work schedules, day off opportunities, and vacation scheduling options as a result of the progressive service increases have improved the bus operator work environment resulting in greater retention of employees. Transit Services may wish to consider pre-hiring transit operators prior to the busy summer season to provide more time off during the summer season as an incentive to attract and retain bus operators.
Needs and Opportunities In addition to the main themes of the Needs Assessment, the study identified eight actionable needs and opportunities for the five-year service plan. They are: 1. Balancing accessibility and mobility – As a public service, transit must provide a basic level of access for those that do not have alternative means of transportation. Potential changes to the route network will need to make the service attractive to new riders, but not at the expense of meeting the basic transportation needs of residents. 2. Meeting the needs of distinct travel markets – NFT serves multiple travel markets, including a large number of post-secondary students. Short-term changes to the route network should identify and support the needs of all travellers. 3. Improving the convenience of transit – Changes to NFT should focus on improving convenience through longer service spans, more frequent service, and less circuitous routings, enabling the system to attract more riders. 4. Minimizing service segmentation – Service segmentation along major corridors can come at the expense of providing attractive service for riders elsewhere in the city. Routes should be optimized to avoid dividing or duplicating service. 5. Providing service to developing areas – As the city’s peripheries develop and expand, and as new destinations such as the South Niagara Hospital emerge, demand-responsive or fixed-route service should be extended to these locations. 6. Separating WEGO and NFT – With local users making up a large share of WEGO ridership, NFT may wish to end the transfer agreement with WEGO and provide a parallel service on Lundy’s Lane.
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7. Improving integration with regional and inter-regional transit – Niagara Falls is serviced by local, regional, and inter-regional transit. With many trips transferring between systems, Niagara Falls should enhance service in a way that better integrates with these other transit networks. 8. Expanding transit infrastructure – To make the transit system more attractive, additional infrastructure should be provided. This includes installing more bus shelters, improving bus terminals and hubs, and expanding the operations and maintenance facility.
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3 Service Plan Foundation
The framework of this Service Plan was developed using NFT’s existing service standards as updated in this study, and through an analysis of the current operations. To satisfy the current service standards, changes to target service hours, WEGO transfer policies, and other NFT policies and practices may be needed and are described in the following sections.
3.1 Service Standards NFT developed a set of service standards to measure their performance as part of the 2009 Service Plan. An analysis of the current operations found that many routes do not meet current standards, with most routes failing to meet standards for route coverage, route structure, and ridership levels. The current service standards are listed in Exhibit 3.1.
Exhibit 3.1: Current Niagara Falls Transit Service Standards Route Coverage – 95% of all residences, places of work, secondary and post-secondary schools, shopping centers, public facilities and tourist attractions in the urban area of Niagara Falls should be within a 400 metre walking distance of a bus stop during the daytime on weekdays and Saturdays, and no more than 800 metres of a bus stop during the late evenings and on Sundays and Holidays. Route Structure – the route coverage standard should be achieved by a grid system of base and local routes: Base Routes should operate in a straight-line structure on the main arterial roads. They will be oriented to the main activity centres and transit hubs, and will form a 2-km grid network accessible to 75% of the population. Local Routes should circulate the various neighbourhoods, industrial and tourist areas connecting the areas to transit hubs with the base routes. The main transit hub would be in the central area of the city (Main and Ferry), supplemented by hubs in the downtown, Niagara Square, Wal-Mart Plaza, Town and Country Plaza. Bus Stop Spacing – bus stop spacing should not exceed 400 metres or be less than 200 metres apart, unless required for pedestrian safety or as a result of geographic barriers or significant ridership generators.
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Exhibit 3.1: Current Niagara Falls Transit Service Standards continued Span of Service – the transit routes should have the following minimum hours of service: Monday – Saturday Base Routes 6:00am – 12:00am Local Routes 6:00am – 10:00pm Sundays/Holidays Base Routes 7:00am – 9:00pm , 7:00am-12:00am tourist areas Local Routes span based on the demand Headways – the transit routes should have the following maximum headways: Peak Periods Weekdays 15 minutes core base routes, 30 minutes all others Off-Peak Periods 30 minutes to 10:00pm Monday to Saturday Late Evening Periods 60 minutes after 10:00pm Monday to Saturday Sundays/Holidays 60 minutes Routes operating between the Main/Ferry hub and the casinos, hotels and tourist areas in the east end should have blended headways to give 15-min. service to 10:00pm and 30- min. service to 1:00am seven days a week. Vehicle Loadings – the maximum passenger loads per bus on average over 30 minutes should not exceed 150% of the seating capacity of large buses and 125% of the seating capacity of small buses. Ridership Levels – each route should achieve the following minimum utilization levels: Monday – Saturday Daytime Base Routes – 25 passengers per revenue hour Local Routes – 15 passengers per revenue hour Evenings and Sundays All Routes – 10 passengers per revenue hour Cost Recovery (Revenue/Cost Ratio) – the goal is to have the municipal transit system achieve an overall cost recovery or revenue/cost ratio of 50%. To achieve the 50% financial target, each transit route will need to recover the following percentages of operating costs from operating revenues attributed to the route: Monday – Saturday Daytime Base Routes 55% R/C, Local Routes 40% R/C Evenings and Sundays All Routes 20% R/C Local routes, which fall below a 20% R/C (10 passengers per hour) on weekdays should be discontinued. Local routes, which are between 20%R/C and 30% R/C (15 passengers per hour) should be modified or restructured. Base routes below a 50%R/C on weekdays should not be touched other than to find ways to encourage more people to use the route by providing better feeder services and/or marketing. Source: Niagara Transit Service Plans, 2009-2018.
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The initial goal of NFT should be to meet these criteria before changing them. The most effective way to achieve the desired ridership levels and cost recovery ratios is to make transit service more attractive for potential riders. By expanding service spans and improving route consistency, NFT will become more appealing to potential riders, representing a meaningful step towards achieving the above criteria.
3.2 Target Service Hours To accommodate better service and meet the service standards shown in Exhibit 3.1, NFT needs to provide more annual service hours on the days and during the time periods where they are needed. As it currently stands, NFT provides 84,121 annual service hours across the 100- and 200-series routes, as well as through WEGO service used by city passengers. By the end of Year 5 of this plan, a total of 31,307 additional service hours will be provided each year for a total of 115,428 annual service hours. This 37.1% increase is not distributed evenly, as most of the added service hours will be added during the first two years. A year-by-year breakdown of the recommended service hour changes can be found in Section 4.1.
3.3 WEGO Policy Changes The City has an agreement with the Niagara Parks Commission, as the joint operator of the WEGO VTS service, to fund and operate the WEGO Red Line and Blue Line routes. Under this agreement, city passengers may ride these routes by paying the same fare as they would on a 100- or 200-series route. The costs associated with operating the Red Line are accordingly divided based on the proportion of “city” versus “tourist” riders using the service. Between 2014 and 2018, the percentage of local users has risen yearly, most notably on the Red Line where local riders account for over 60% of the total ridership. Due to the upward trend in local ridership on WEGO buses, it is recommended that NFT ends the existing transfer agreement with WEGO. Since only 4% of the WEGO Blue Line users are local riders and the route parallels many 100-series routes, ending the agreement should have little impact on ridership. In contrast, removing the Red Line from the city transit network will require the addition of a new bus route along Lundy’s Lane to support local users. Transitioning away from this transfer agreement is expected to be more cost-effective for Transit Services, and this change is recommended in the first year of the service plan.
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3.5 High School Student Recommendations Another opportunity for NFT to increase ridership comes from the provision of targeted transit programs or services for high school students. Eligibility for school board-funded transportation has been restricted significantly in recent years, although rationalization of public and Catholic school boards sharing yellow bus (“school bus”) services would cause limitations toward the types of strategies used to increase student ridership. However, strategies that are still effective include: 1. Promotional programs; 2. Greater subsidies for high school student fares; 3. Agreements/arrangements with school boards to have students use public transit, through replacing yellow bus services and/or providing financial arrangements for monthly or annual (school year) passes for students eligible for board-funded transportation; and 4. Provision of supplementary routes/extra buses designed to directly serve the student catchment areas with the respective schools. These could be provided together with strategies 1, 2, and 3. Before these strategies are pursued, Transit Services should consider how to accommodate the increase in high school students during peak hours on existing services and how that would impact capital and operating costs. In municipalities such as Mississauga, Brantford, and Sarnia, extra buses are required during peak hours to accommodate high school students.
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3.6 Bus Operator Scheduling Recommendations In recent years, attracting and retaining bus operators has been an issue due to varying service levels throughout the day and week. These require many shifts to stray from the typical 8 hour-a-day, 5 day-a-week package that most institutions offer. Additionally, because of Niagara Falls’ tourism industry, there is a higher demand for bus operators during the summer, which has commonly been a popular time for employees to take vacations. Alternative and innovative ways to reduce these issues and make working conditions more attractive include: Reducing split shifts by adding non-productive time largely funded by a trade-off between the cost of hiring and training new employees and the cost of the non-productive time;
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Pre-hiring replacement operators for those retiring later in the year to help cover for the summer service levels and provide regular bus operators with increased opportunity for vacation time; and Adding additional transit service throughout all service hours to reduce service imbalances, thereby reducing the need for split shifts and increasing the ability to provide two consecutive days off. Because transit service levels have increased over the last six years, it is easier to offer a typical work schedule to employees which in turn has reduced employee complaints and turn-over. To make the system more attractive for bus operators and users, NFT should continue to increase service levels, especially during off-peak hours. Also, pre-hiring bus operators before the summer or employee retirement would increase the pool of trained drivers during peak season and provide more flexibility for vacations.
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4 Five Year Plan – Years 1 to 5
The Transit Service Plan prepared in this study consists of a detailed five-year plan and a high-level longer term 10-year vision of future service needs. The first five years of the Transit Service Plan are intended to address the needs and opportunities from Chapter 2. In particular, changes proposed as part of the five- year plan focus on the following six opportunities for the conventional transit system: 1. Balancing accessibility and mobility; 2. Meeting the needs of distinct travel markets; 3. Improving the convenience of transit; 4. Minimizing service segmentation; 5. Providing service to developing areas; and 6. Separating WEGO and NFT services.
4.1 Annual Network Changes
Base (Year 0) Changes recommended for the route network build on the base network operated in early 2020, prior to the reduction of service due to COVID-19. There are two parts to this network: A “100-series” network that operates Monday through Saturday, roughly between 6 a.m. and 6:30 p.m.; and A “200-series” network that operates Monday through Saturday, roughly between 6:30 p.m. and 11 p.m., and on Sundays and Holidays, roughly between 7 a.m. and 8:30 p.m. In addition to containing either 100- or 200-series routes, each network also includes the WEGO Red Line, which NFT passengers may ride using a city fare. The 100-series network is shown in Exhibit 4.1, and the 200-series network is shown in Exhibit 4.2. With these two networks, NFT provides 84,121 annual revenue vehicle hours (RVH), including all 100-series routes, 200-series routes, and the “city” portion of WEGO Red Line service.
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Exhibit 4.1: Niagara Falls Transit Daytime Network (100-series routes)
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Exhibit 4.2: Niagara Falls Transit Evening, Sunday, and Holiday Network (200-series routes)
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Year 1 Changes made to the network in the first year focus on separating NFT and WEGO services (opportunity #6) and transitioning NFT to a more consistent route network in the evenings (opportunities #3 and 4). Separating NFT and WEGO services, which also includes the extension of route 104 along Lundy’s Lane, will help reduce confusion for riders and will also reduce transfers for trips between the Downtown Bus Terminal and Lundy’s Lane. Transitioning to an evening route network that is consistent with the daytime route network will also help reduce confusion for riders, improve the convenience of transit, and minimize service segmentation. This change will also fill gaps within the current evening service and replace some demand- responsive transit areas with fixed-route service. The individual service changes in Year 1 are as follows and are summarized in Exhibit 4.3. Overall, these changes result in an increase of 8,009 annual revenue vehicle hours, reflecting a year-over-year growth of 9.5%. Extend route 104, replacing Red Line city service: Route 104 will operate through Main and Ferry, continuing west along Lundy’s Lane to Campark; This service will operate 16 hours per day, Monday through Saturday, and 13.5 hours per day, Sundays and holidays; Buses will run every 30 minutes with a 90-minute cycle time from mid-June through September (peak season) and a 60- minute cycle time at other times of the year; Route 204 (evenings/Sundays/holidays) will be replaced by this extended route 104; and City transfers to/from the WEGO Red Line will be discontinued. Discontinue city transfers to/from the WEGO Blue Line: Create a clear distinction between NFT and WEGO services in Niagara Falls. Increase service frequencies on route 103: Increase frequency to 30 minutes all-day (Monday through Saturday); and Enable interlining with route 110 at Main and Ferry (replacing former interlining between routes 104 and 110).
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Realign the terminal loop of route 106 in Chippawa: Change routing to match current route 112 loop on Willoughby Drive, Weinbrenner Road, Sodom Road, Welland Street, Oliver Street, and Gunning Drive; and Provide riders with an effective 15-minute peak service frequency and 30-minute off-peak frequency on this loop. Replace 200-series evening routes with 100-series routes: Remove all 200-series routes from evening service and extend the span of most 100-series routes to 11:30 p.m. (excluding routes 102 and 112); and Provide service using off-peak frequencies (30 minutes on routes 104, 110, and 111, and 60 minutes on all other routes). Remove evening TransCab zone north of Downtown: TransCab service in this area will be replaced with fixed-route service from route 108 in the evenings.
Exhibit 4.3: Year 1 Service and Revenue Vehicle Hour Changes Service Change RVH Change Total RVH Starting RVH - 84,121 Replace Red Line City and 204 with new, -1,461 82,660 extended 104 Remove Blue Line City transfers - 82,660 Upgrade 103 to 30-min, all-day service +1,818 84,478 Realign 106 Chippawa loop - 84,478 Replace 200-series evening routes with +7,651 92,129 most 100-series routes Remove TransCab zone north of - 92,129 Downtown (evenings) Total Year 1 Change +8,009 92,129
Following the implementation of all Year 1 service changes, the Monday through Saturday daytime NFT network will be as shown in Exhibit 4.4. The Monday through Saturday evening network will be similar to the daytime network, but without routes 102 and 112. The Sunday and Holiday network will be mostly unchanged, except for the replacement of route 204 with the extended route 104.
November 20, 2020 20 IBI GROUP REPORT TRANSIT STRATEGIC BUSINESS PLAN AND RIDERSHIP GROWTH STRATEGY: FIVE-YEAR UPDATE Prepared for the City of Niagara Falls
Exhibit 4.4: Proposed Monday to Saturday Daytime Service with Year 1 Improvements
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Year 2 Changes in year 2 build on the changes introduced in year 1 with a focus on completing the evening transit network (opportunities #3 and 4), introducing fixed-route service to new areas of the city on Sundays (opportunities #1 and 2), and providing demand-responsive transit for other emerging areas (opportunity #5). Completing the evening transit network will further contribute towards minimizing service segmentation and improving the convenience of transit while also reducing confusion for riders. Introducing fixed-route service to new areas of the city on Sundays – in particular the area north of Downtown and the Stanley Avenue/Thorold Stone Road corridor – will provide greater access to transit and serve as an important link to community services. The addition of demand- responsive transit in growing areas of Niagara Falls will act to further expand the catchment area of transit and serves as a precursor to fixed-route service in later years. The individual service changes in Year 2 are as follows, and are summarized in Exhibit 4.5. Overall, these changes result in an increase of 6,094 annual revenue vehicle hours, reflecting a year-over-year growth of 6.6%. Introduce evening service on routes 102 and 112: Extend the service span of routes 102 and 112 to 11:30 p.m. Monday through Saturday; and This change will provide a consistent NFT route network at all times of day on weekdays and Saturdays. Add route 208 to Sundays and Holidays: Introduce a new route to Sunday and Holiday service, following the alignment and schedule of route 108 Service on route 208 will be provided between 7:00 a.m. and 8:30 p.m., with buses running every 60 minutes Allocate demand-responsive service to new development areas: Revenue vehicle hours will be reserved for providing service to newly developed areas of the city (e.g. Stanley South, Chippawa); This may be through TransCab, or through other demand- responsive service delivery models; and Initially allocate 6 hours of service per day, 6 days per week.
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Exhibit 4.5: Year 2 Service and Revenue Vehicle Hour Changes Service Change RVH Change Total RVH Starting RVH - 92,129 Add 102 and 112 to Monday-Saturday +3,030 95,159 evening service Add 208 to Sundays and Holidays +1,240 96,399 Add demand-response service to new +1,824 98,223 areas Total Year 2 Change +6,094 98,223
Following the implementation of all Year 2 service changes, the Monday through Saturday daytime and evening NFT networks will be identical and as shown in Exhibit 4.4. The Sunday and Holiday network will be as shown in Exhibit 4.6. Demand-responsive service will be allocated on an as-needed basis and is not shown on these maps.
November 20, 2020 23 IBI GROUP REPORT TRANSIT STRATEGIC BUSINESS PLAN AND RIDERSHIP GROWTH STRATEGY: FIVE-YEAR UPDATE Prepared for the City of Niagara Falls
Exhibit 4.6: Proposed Sunday & Holiday Service with Year 2 Improvements
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Year 3 With a consistent transit service operated from the morning to the evening on weekdays and Saturdays, changes in year 3 focus on improving the frequency of certain routes during peak periods (opportunities #1, 2, and 3) while introducing more demand-responsive service into the city (opportunity #5). Improving service frequencies during peak periods will help provide a more consistent transit service and improve the mobility provided by the transit network, better meet the needs of Niagara Falls’ travel markets, and improve the convenience of transit. In particular, these frequency improvements will significantly reduce transfer times for some passengers. The addition of demand-responsive transit in growing areas of Niagara Falls will act to further expand the catchment area of transit and serves as a precursor to fixed-route service in later years. The individual service changes in Year 3 are as follows, and are summarized in Exhibit 4.7. Overall, these changes result in an increase of 6,370 annual revenue vehicle hours, reflecting a year-over-year growth of 6.5%. Improve service frequencies during peak hours: Improve service frequencies on routes 109, 112, 113, and 114 from 60-minutes to 30-minutes during morning and evening peak periods; and This change will lead to all NFT routes operating with 30-minute service frequencies during peak periods. Allocate more demand-responsive service to new development areas: Revenue vehicle hours will be reserved for providing service to newly developed areas of the city (e.g. Stanley South, Chippawa); This may be through TransCab, or through other demand- responsive service delivery models; and Allocate another 6 hours of service per day, 6 days per week, for a total of 12 hours of service per day.
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Exhibit 4.7: Year 3 Service and Revenue Vehicle Hour Changes Service Change RVH Change Total RVH Starting RVH - 98,223 Improve service frequencies on 109, 112, +4,546 102,769 113, 114 Add demand-response service to new +1,824 104,593 areas Total Year 3 Change +6,370 104,593
Following the implementation of all Year 3 service changes, the routings for the Monday through Saturday NFT network, as well as the Sunday and Holiday network, will not change from Year 2. Demand-responsive service will be allocated on an as-needed basis and is not shown on these maps.
Year 4 Changes in year 4 are intended to make Sunday and holiday transit service more consistent with weekday and Saturday service while maintaining the existing span of service on these days (objectives #3 and 4). Transitioning the Sunday and holiday transit network towards using 100-series routes will further contribute towards minimizing service segmentation and improving the convenience of transit while also reducing confusion for riders. The individual service changes in Year 4 are as follows, and are summarized in Exhibit 4.8. Overall, these changes result in an increase of 5,921 annual revenue vehicle hours, reflecting a year-over-year growth of 5.7%. Replace 200-series Sunday and Holiday routes with 100-series routes: Remove all 200-series routes from Sunday and holiday service and introduce most 100-series routes between 7:00 a.m. and 8:30 p.m. (excluding routes 102 and 112); Provide service using on-peak frequencies (30 minutes on all routes) during morning and evening peak periods; and Provide service using off-peak frequencies (30 minutes on routes 104, 110, and 111, and 60 minutes on all other routes) during all other times.
November 20, 2020 26 IBI GROUP REPORT TRANSIT STRATEGIC BUSINESS PLAN AND RIDERSHIP GROWTH STRATEGY: FIVE-YEAR UPDATE Prepared for the City of Niagara Falls
Exhibit 4.8: Year 4 Service and Revenue Vehicle Hour Changes Service Change RVH Change Total RVH Starting RVH - 104,593 Replace 200-series Sunday and Holiday +5,921 110,514 routes with most 100-series routes Total Year 4 Change +5,921 110,514
Following the implementation of all Year 4 service changes, the Monday through Saturday NFT network will not change from Year 3. The Sunday and Holiday network will be similar to the Monday through Saturday network, but without routes 102 and 112.
Year 5 Finally, changes in year 5 will add routes to Sunday and holiday transit service (objectives #3 and 4) and increase the service span to make it fully consistent with weekday and Saturday service (objectives #1, 2, and 3). By the end of year 5, NFT will operate the same set of routes on the same schedules every day of the week. Enhancing Sunday and holiday transit service will involve adding routes 102 and 112, completing the transition to a consistent set of routes on all days of the week and further reducing service segmentation. Finally, improving the span of transit service on Sundays and holidays will improve transit access and better meet the needs of off-peak travellers, further improving the convenience of taking transit. The individual service changes in Year 5 are as follows, and are summarized in Exhibit 4.9. Overall, these changes result in an increase of 4,914 annual revenue vehicle hours, reflecting a year-over-year growth of 4.4%. Introduce Sunday and Holiday service on routes 102 and 112: Add routes 102 and 112 to the Sunday and holiday route network, operating between 7:00 a.m. and 8:30 p.m.; and This change will provide a consistent NFT route network on all days of the week.
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Extend the span of service on Sundays and Holidays: Extend the service span of all routes on Sundays and holidays to match the service span on weekdays and Saturdays (6:00 a.m. through 11:30 p.m.); and This change will provide consistent NFT service on all days of the week and on holidays.
Exhibit 4.9: Year 5 Service and Revenue Vehicle Hour Changes Service Change RVH Change Total RVH Starting RVH - 110,514 Add 102 and 112 to Sunday and Holiday +2,232 112,746 service Extend Sunday and Holiday service spans +2,682 115,428 to match weekday spans Total Year 5 Change +4,914 115,428
Following the implementation of all Year 5 service changes, the NFT route network will be consistent on all days of the week (Monday through Sunday and holidays) and at all times of the day. This network is shown in Exhibit 4.10. As noted, demand-responsive service will be allocated on an as-needed basis and is not shown on these maps. Exhibit 4.11 lists the service changes in each year of the five-year plan. Together, these changes result in an increase of 31,307 revenue vehicle hours per year, representing a 37.2% increase in transit service.
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Exhibit 4.10: Proposed Year 5 Niagara Falls Transit Network
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Exhibit 4.11: Summary of Revenue Vehicle Hour Changes in Years 1–5 Change Y1 Y2 Y3 Y4 Y5 Net RVH Base 84,121 Year 1 Replace Red Line City and -1,461 82,660 204 with new, extended 104 Remove Blue Line City (0) 82,660 transfers Upgrade 103 to 30-min, all- +1,818 84,478 day service Realign 106 Chippawa loop (0) 84,478 Replace 200-series evening +7,651 92,129 routes with most 100-series Remove TransCab zone (0) 92,129 north of Downtown (eve) Total Year 1 Change +8,009 +9.5% Year 2 Add 102 and 112 to Monday- +3,030 95,159 Saturday evening service Add 208 to Sun/Hol +1,240 96,399 Add demand-response +1,824 98,223 service to new areas Total Year 2 Change +6,094 +6.6% Year 3 Improve service frequencies +4,546 102,769 on 109, 112, 113, 114 Add demand-response +1,824 104,593 service to new areas Total Year 3 Change +6,370 +6.5% Year 4 Replace 200-series Sun/Hol +5,921 110,514 routes with most 100-series Total Year 4 Change +5,921 +5.7% Year 5 Add 102 and 112 to Sunday +2,232 112,746 and Holiday service Extend Sun/Hol service +2,682 115,428 spans to match weekdays Total Year 5 Change +4,914 +4.4%
November 20, 2020 30 IBI GROUP REPORT TRANSIT STRATEGIC BUSINESS PLAN AND RIDERSHIP GROWTH STRATEGY: FIVE-YEAR UPDATE Prepared for the City of Niagara Falls 4.2 Ridership Projections The five-year service plan will provide significant improvements for residents and employees through increased service levels, particularly in the evenings and on weekends, elimination of the duplicate weekday/evening/ Sunday route networks, and extension of services into new areas. While the impact of the COVID-19 virus and associated changes in societal behaviour, travel patterns, and frequency of travel are having an immediate negative impact on transit services and ridership, this condition is not expected to be permanent. A return to pre-COVID ridership levels is anticipated within two years. As such, an increase in transit ridership generally consistent with the percentage improvement in service levels and population growth can be expected over the term of the plan. However, it is to be noted that ridership response to service improvements takes time to materialize as people adjust or modify their travel habits, particularly for those who will be reducing or eliminating car use which is a key market target for future transit ridership growth. Typically, it may take up to 12 months or longer to see the results of the service changes. The service plan will increase transit service hours by 37.2% over 5 years, an average of 7.4% per year. Over the same period, the city’s population is projected to grow by approximately 8%, from an estimated 2020 population of 96,000 to a 2026 population of 104,2001, approximately 1.6% per year. Together, this represents a growth potential of 45% over 5 years, 9% per year which is a significant increase. A more prudent expectation would be half this growth rate, or 4.5% per year, with a lower rate for the first year of 2.25% rising to 3.5% in year 2 and 4.5% for the remaining three years. Exhibit 4.12 summarizes the ridership projections based on the foregoing conditions. Ridership is projected to increase to 2,166,000 by Year 5, a total increase of 20.7%.
Exhibit 4.12: Service Plan Ridership Estimate in Years 1–5 Year Ridership Change (%) 2019 1,794,000 - Year 1 1,834,000 +2.25% Year 2 1,898,000 +3.5% Year 3 1,984,000 +4.5% Year 4 2,073,000 +4.5% Year 5 2,166,000 +4.5% Total Change +372,000 +20.7%
1 Source: Hemson Population and Employment Review for Niagara Region. November 20, 2020 31 IBI GROUP REPORT TRANSIT STRATEGIC BUSINESS PLAN AND RIDERSHIP GROWTH STRATEGY: FIVE-YEAR UPDATE Prepared for the City of Niagara Falls
5 Ten-Year Plan – Years 6 to 10
This chapter outlines projected changes to NFT services and route network for a further five years following the implementation of the five-year service plan. Unlike the five-year plan, this ten-year plan does not present specific route or service changes for implementation, but instead identifies key trip generators and corridors for service. Recommendations for the ten-year plan are presented as both fixed-route changes and demand-responsive service changes.
5.1 Fixed-Route Changes Based on planning information over the next five to ten years, development in the city is projected to expand and grow to the south and southeast. Exhibit 5.1 shows key points and existing transit connections within the city, along with areas where growth and development is expected over the coming five to ten years – many sites to the south and southeast of the existing urban area, but also a number of infill developments. A key development that will require service in years 6 through 10 is the new South Niagara Hospital, which is expected to open by 2027. This facility will be located near the intersection of Montrose Road and Biggar Road, south of the Welland River. Exhibit 5.1 shows how the transit route network should change to serve these developments by extending to the south and adding new connecting services, particularly from the Chippawa area, to link the growth areas. In particular, the following connections are recommended: New Hospital to Canadian Drive Hub; New Hospital to Chippawa; New Hospital to Main and Ferry; Coverage for developments south and west of Canadian Drive (to/from Canadian Drive Hub); Coverage for developments near Thundering Waters (to/from Main and Ferry); and Coverage for developments west of Chippawa (to/from Chippawa). A summary of the estimated future service frequencies, approximate route lengths, and associated bus needs for these fixed-route services is presented in Exhibit 5.2. Note that these are high-level estimates, and comprehensive service planning should be completed prior to implementing any routes described here.
November 20, 2020 32 IBI GROUP REPORT TRANSIT STRATEGIC BUSINESS PLAN AND RIDERSHIP GROWTH STRATEGY: FIVE-YEAR UPDATE Prepared for the City of Niagara Falls
Exhibit 5.1: Future Niagara Falls Transit Service Expansion Direction
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Exhibit 5.2: Potential Fixed-Route Service Additions in Years 6–10 Approx. Round- Approx. Buses Fixed-Route Service Peak Frequency Trip Length Needed Hospital – Canadian Drive 30 min 10 km 1 Hospital – Chippawa 30 min 15 km 2 Hospital – Main & Ferry 60 min 24 km 1 Canadian Drive – Southwest 60 min 12 km 1 Niagara Falls Neighbourhoods Main & Ferry – Thundering 60 min 12 km 1 Waters Development Chippawa – Neighbourhoods 60 min 14 km 1 west of Chippawa Total - - 7
5.2 Demand-Responsive Service Changes As described in years 2 and 3 of the service plan, it is recommended that NFT add demand-responsive service to improve transit access to newly developed parts of the city, such as Warren Woods, Thundering Waters, and western Chippawa. By the end of year 3, approximately 12 hours of service will be available per day, six days per week, and this is expected to continue through years 5 and beyond. Although NFT currently provides transit service to some parts of the city via TransCab, other forms of alternative service delivery may be explored and considered. These include demand-responsive services such as dial-a-bus, or micro-transit deployments with smaller vehicles. Transit Services may also wish to work with local taxi companies to provide TransCab services with larger vehicles, and potentially allow riders to share trips to or from common transit hubs. Over time, it may become challenging to serve neighbourhoods with TransCab or other demand-responsive transit services, especially as ridership grows. As ridership and demand begin to exceed the capacity provided by demand- responsive transit, it is recommended that Transit Services transitions these neighbourhoods to fixed-route services. This may be through extensions of existing routes or through the introduction of new routes. Such changes are will serve two purposes: Fixed-route service can prove more effective and cost-efficient where there is sufficient demand; and Demand-responsive service hours and vehicles will become available for deployment in other growing areas in the city.
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6 Infrastructure Plan
This chapter summarizes the actions and investment required to maintain and enhance the City’s public transit infrastructure under the five-year service plan and 10-year forecast consisting of vehicles, the transit operations centre (garage), transit terminals, and bus stops and shelters.
6.1 Buses The transit vehicle fleet, as of October 2020, totals 62 buses for the conventional transit services including NFT, WEGO, and Regional routes (inter- municipal transit, or IMT) routes and services. The fleet distribution by transit service is summarized in Exhibit 6.1. As noted, 33 buses are available for NFT services.
Exhibit 6.1: Transit Fleet Summary – October 2020 Operation Manufacturer Model Length (m) Quantity Eldorado EZ RIDERII 10.7 4 Orion 07.501 12.2 10 Niagara Falls Orion VII 12.2 3 Transit (City) Nova LFS 12.2 14 Nova LFS – Artic 18.9 2 Subtotal - - 33 Nova LFX 12.2 5 WEGO VTS Nova LFX – Artic 18.9 11 Subtotal - - 16 Orion VII 12.2 3 Niagara Nova LFS 12.2 6 Region (IMT) Nova LFS – Artic 18.9 4 Subtotal - - 13 All Total - - 62 Source: City of Niagara Falls, 2020.
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Over the course of the five-year service plan, the peak number of buses required to provide NFT services will increase from 20 to 27 with weekday off- peak bus requirements increasing from 13 to 18 and Sunday/ Holiday requirements increasing from 7 to 18 as summarized in Exhibit 6.2. With a 25 per cent allowance for spares, the fleet requirement by Year 5 will be 34 buses. If NFT is able to reduce the spare ratio to 20%, the total fleet requirement could be reduced to 33 buses. Beyond five years, projected potential new services to the new South Niagara Hospital, as well as developments such as Thundering Waters and west Chippawa, would require seven (7) buses plus one (@20%) to two (@25%) spares, for a total fleet requirement of 41-43 buses. NFT’s bus capital program provides for the purchase of eight buses over the period between 2020 and 2022 as replacements for buses that have reached the end of their economic life (18 years). These eight buses consist of four 12- metre (40 foot) and four 18-metre (60 foot) buses. Two of the 18m buses are intended to increase passenger capacity by replacing 12 m buses on high volume routes. For service expansion, three buses are planned to be purchased in 2021-2022 to increase the fleet total to 36 buses. This fleet total is below the projected future fleet requirement of 43, so additional bus purchases are likely required beyond year five of the service plan. It is to be noted that NFTs current vehicle spare ratio is high at 65% (13 buses over the peak service requirement of 20 buses).
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Annual revenue hours are projected to increase from 84,121 (2019) to 115,428, a net increase of 31,307 revenue-hours (each value subject to detailed service planning at the time of implementation). The annual average bus utilization rate (revenue hours per bus) will increase from the 2019 level of 2,549 (noting the current high spare ratio) to 3,498, a 37% increase. Additional maintenance staff will be required to handle this increased vehicle workload.
Exhibit 6.2: Summary of Five-Year Bus Requirements Off-Peak Calendar (Weekday/ Peak Spares Total Fleet Year Sunday) (Weekday) (@ 25%) Needs 2020 13 / 7 20 5 25 Year 1 15 / 9 22 6 28 Year 2 17 / 12 23 6 29 Year 3 18 / 13 27 7 34 Year 4 18 / 16 27 7 34 Year 5 18 / 18 27 7 34 Change +5 / +11 +7 +2 +9 Future 21 / 21 34 9 43
6.2 Transit Services Facility The Transit Services facility on Heartland Forest Road accommodates all transit-related functions including administration, operations (dispatch and control centre), vehicle maintenance, vehicle servicing, and vehicle storage. The facility has sufficient space for administration, operations, and vehicle servicing needs. However, it is currently at capacity for vehicle maintenance and storage. The facility has indoor storage for 36 buses and 48 outdoors although considering that indoor storage is provided for 12 GO Transit buses, there is effectively indoor storage only for 24 NFT/WEGO/IMT buses. Outdoor storage is not desirable in Canadian climates for various reasons including weather impacts on vehicle mechanical, electrical and air systems as well as safety issues for employees. As a result, the City is planning to expand the indoor storage area by 24 buses for a total indoor capacity of 60 buses. This is below the future fleet (NFT, WEGO, IMT) vehicle capacity projection of 72 (43 + 16 + 13) buses in 10 years or 78 buses when storage for 12 GO Transit buses is included.
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With respect to the vehicle maintenance area, there are currently six maintenance bays for the non-GO Transit bus fleet (vehicle maintenance is not provided for these buses), two of which are suitable for articulated buses. In view of the future fleet growth projection as well as the replacement of 12 metre buses by 18 metre buses, two additional vehicle maintenance bays should be planned for. At the time of the planned expansion, consideration should be given to providing additional storage and maintenance space for up to a further 10 buses as it would be cost-effective from a construction standpoint.
6.3 Transit Terminals/Hubs Of the four primary terminal/hub locations within the city (Downtown Bus Terminal, Morrison/Dorchester Hub, Main & Ferry, and the new Canadian Drive Hub), plans are in place for upgrades to the VIA/GO station and adjacent Downtown Bus Terminal. In addition, a new terminal has been constructed at Canadian Drive to replace the previous Niagara Square facility. The Main & Ferry location has also benefitted from customer amenity enhancements in recent years. Terminals or “Hubs” serve as convenient off-street locations where multiple transit routes come together to facilitate transfers between routes for transit users who must use more than one route to complete their trip. These hubs often, and ideally, are located where there are trip generators, reasons for people to travel to the location thereby given added purpose and value to the function of the hub.
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Morrison/Dorchester Hub Of the four primary transfer point and hub locations within the NFT system, the site in the vicinity of the Dorchester Road-Morrison Street intersection and partially located within a commercial plaza, has emerged over the years as a key hub. Known as the “Mor/Dor Hub”, it serves as the terminus for several local routes as well as the connection and transfer point with the Niagara Region Transit routes. It also serves as the transit access point for people destined to and from the businesses in the immediate area. However, with the number of routes, particularly the addition of the regional routes over the past six years, the Mor/Dor Hub has reached its capacity. At the same time, the property owner has indicated a desire to limit transit access to the site or, to require the City to pay rent for the space used. While these issues have been addressed, they raise the question as to the suitability of the Mor/Dor Hub location over the longer term given growth of the city to the south and the increased ridership on the regional routes. As a result, two other locations have been identified by City staff as possible locations to replace or relocate the Mor/Dor Hub. These two were reviewed as to their potential suitability. They are: The Mt. Carmel property immediately north of Thorold Stone Road on the east side of Montrose Road; and The vacant land on the west side of Dorchester road, south of the CN Rail tracks and north of Highway 420. The key consideration in assessing the suitability of alternative locations for either the Mor/Dor Hub itself or its functionality, is its use by the regional routes. As these routes travel via the Queen Elizabeth Way (QEW), access to a NFT hub for transfer purposes between the regional routes and local routes should optimize access to and from the QEW. Additionally, the impact on the local route network and changes needed to reach the location needs to be considered. For either location, as well as the Mor/Dor Hub, each would require suitable operational and customer features such as a raised concrete platform, shelters, benches, waste receptacles, lighting and appropriate features and design elements to ensure accessibility for people who are differently abled. For an unimproved site, appropriate paving, curbing, drainage and lighting would need to be provided.
Mt. Carmel This location at the north end of the city consists of a small mall and other commercial developments. It is reasonably accessible from the QEW via Thorold Stone Road. An area within the mall or adjacent development property could be developed as a transit hub consisting of platforms, shelters, lighting, and other customer amenities. Repaving of the areas the buses would use would be required. The location provides a suitable “north” transfer hub with the regional routes complementing the other major transfer hub in the south end of the city at Canadian Drive. While daytime transit routes 109, 105 and 113
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(evening/Sunday 205, 209, 213) currently serve the Mt. Carmel development, some restructuring of the transit route network would be required to improve connectivity for areas of the city to the east and southeast in order to continue to provide convenient connections with the Regional routes.
Land South of the CN Rail Tracks This site, on the west side of Dorchester Road immediately south of the CN Rail tracks and immediately north of Hwy 420, is undeveloped. As a result, the site would require redevelopment and construction of the hub infrastructure and related customer amenities. Access to/from Hwy 420 and the QEW is indirect requiring extensive distance on the 420/QEW access roadways although the distance involved would be comparable to the existing Mor/Dor Hub location and the Mt. Carmel site subject to the positioning of a hub on that site. To effectively serve this site, a re-structuring of the NFT route network would be required involving daytime routes 102, 108, 109, 110, 111 and 114 (evening/Sunday routes 209, 210, 211, 214). They would need to be extended south (111 truncated) and then one or two re-aligned to continue serving the Mor/Dor commercial area west of Dorchester Road. These changes have not been considered in detail and they may impact route lengths and scheduling. As a result, further detailed service planning would be required to confirm the feasibility and operating cost impact of the moving to this site.
Conclusions As the scope of this service plan up-date is to identify the city’s transit system needs over the next five years leading up to the regionalization of transit services, and in view of the potentially evolving nature of inter-municipal/regional routes, establishing a new transit hub to replace the Mor/Dor Hub, would be premature. Instead, and recognizing the need for customer and operations- related improvements at the Mor/Dor Hub, the City should not consider relocating from the Mor/Dor Hub at this time but proceed to upgrade the facility.
6.4 Stops and Shelters For the service changes and, particularly, service along streets where service is being introduced, new stops will be required while stops on streets where service is discontinued will need to be removed. As well, many of the remaining existing stops will be need to be re-signed to reflect new route numbers. Depending on the cost of signs, posts, and labour, the cost to install new signs may be approximately $150 each and removal of old stops approximately $75 per sign subject to final decisions regarding stop requirements and locations.
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Bus stops consist of a pole, a marker (sign) with route and customer contact information, and a pictograph of a bus or words “Bus Stop”, but not both. The City has upgraded it bus stop sign in recent years to incorporate these key features which has resulted in distinctive, recognizable bus stop locations. New transit stop placement criteria should be developed along with design criteria. In general, an average stop spacing target of 250 to 300 metres is a typical guideline with the overall objective of ensuring good access to transit service by minimizing the walk distance. While respecting the spacing guideline, stops should be installed at trip generators and at intersections as appropriate and as- needed. Close spacing of stops should be avoided except in unusual circumstances. NFT should undertake a review of stop locations to consolidate closely-spaced stops, where applicable. Stops need not be removed otherwise even if usage is low since the main objective is to minimize the walk distance to transit service as well as a secondary purpose, of “advertising,” or “demonstrating evidence” that transit service exists as represented by the bus stop sign. In addition to changes to bus stops, some shelters may need to be relocated subject to final route design and bus stop location changes. The cost to relocate these shelters will depend on the condition of each new location in terms of required upgrades. A relocation budget allowance of approximately $2,500 per shelter should be planned for. As noted in the Needs Assessment (Task 3) report, the percentage of stops with shelters is approximately 12.5% (97 shelters for 775 stops). This level is low in comparison to trends in other municipalities which are in the range of 30 to 35%. To create a more attractive environment for transit users and to encourage increased transit use, a higher shelter/bus stop ratio of 30% or more should be pursued. This represents 232 shelters, an increase of 135 from the current total. The approximate cost to purchase and install 135 shelters, subject to local site requirements, would be approximately $15,000 per shelter or $2 million distributed over the first 5 years of the service plan.
November 20, 2020 41 IBI GROUP REPORT TRANSIT STRATEGIC BUSINESS PLAN AND RIDERSHIP GROWTH STRATEGY: FIVE-YEAR UPDATE Prepared for the City of Niagara Falls
7 Transit Technology Plan
As NFT has increased their use of technology over time, the quantity and types of data being generated have grown significantly. However, limited resources and data expertise are constraining NFT’s ability to effectively utilize these new data. This chapter summarizes the findings of the Data Systems Review memorandum (Appendix B), identifying simple and straightforward opportunities to leverage existing data to monitor and manage NFT’s operations. NFT collects substantial data with its existing systems, and there exist many opportunities to extract useful insights from this data. Of heightened interest are opportunities to improve the measurement of key performance metrics to inform NFT in its day-to-day operations and long-term planning. Two complementary approaches have been identified in this regard: Data dashboards; and Automated data reports from CleverReports.
7.1 Data Dashboards A data dashboard would show NFT’s agency-wide performance at a glance, with the option to drill down for more detailed insights. The dashboard would update every time CleverReports updates (i.e. daily), so NFT could consult the dashboard to guide decisions and evaluate results.
Dashboards Created Within CleverReports CleverReports has a dashboard-building functionality. Its primary limitation is that only data available within CleverReports can be used. Nonetheless, a CleverReports dashboard could be set up with limited effort and at a low cost, making it the ideal way for NFT to “test the waters” on using a data dashboard.
Custom Data Dashboards NFT could also develop a custom data dashboard in the future. Custom dashboards are more expensive, but have the advantage of being able to be tailored precisely to NFT goals, and would allow data from multiple systems to be combined for more powerful insights. A sample custom data dashboard for NFT is shown in Exhibit 7.1.
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Exhibit 7.1: Sample Custom NFT Data Dashboard
By developing a data dashboard, NFT can begin to extract benefits from the data it collects without expending more resources to do it. Dashboards could be procured as a separate system, or they could be created using a generic dashboarding tool, like Power BI or Tableau. KPIs such as on-time performance and ridership are accessible through analysis of the data NFT collects, and other agencies have found them to be useful indicators.
Data Dashboard Best Practices Data dashboards can be a powerful tool for any agency, but they are only valuable insofar as they are used to improve planning and processes. Simply creating a dashboard that is checked from time to time will not change anything. If Transit Services develops a dashboard (whether through CleverReports or through a third party), the following best practices should be considered to ensure that the most value is extracted from the effort: Start with one or two metrics and add more over time; Think about how you will use every metric you include in your dashboard; Identify a lead for each metric within NFT; Discuss data trends regularly; and Observe, test, and repeat.
November 20, 2020 43 IBI GROUP REPORT TRANSIT STRATEGIC BUSINESS PLAN AND RIDERSHIP GROWTH STRATEGY: FIVE-YEAR UPDATE Prepared for the City of Niagara Falls 7.2 Automated Data Reports from CleverReports CleverReports is a powerful tool. The prime obstacle in the way of NFT realizing this potential is resourcing. A routine automated process could greatly simplify this task. The automated process would run a set of pre-selected reports at specified intervals, extract the data that is important to NFT, and produce a high-level “mega-report”. More detailed data underlying the mega-report would be included as an appendix for a deeper dive into the data. Data trends over specified timeframes could be automated to appear in this report as well. The following are some CleverReports that would provide valuable information to NFT:
On-Time Performance A more detailed look into “Trip Delay by Route”, with insights into time of day- specific performance as well as a breakdown of delayed, on-time, and early trips. The worst five routes could be automatically extracted and shown in the proposed mega-report. This metric is a good indicator of the overall quality of service riders are experiencing throughout the day. Prolonged poor on-time performance may indicate that schedules need to be reconfigured. An example of an on-time performance report is shown in Exhibit 7.2.
Exhibit 7.2: On-Time Performance Report from CleverReports
Missed Trip Summary A table of daily missed trips, for a quick comparison to understand if there is a negative trend. Regular missed trips on a given route may point to overly ambitious scheduling, or they may indicate a personnel-related issue. An automated process to compile insights from reports like these into daily and weekly mega-reports should be set up by personnel at NFT, or by a third party.
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This would be a one-time effort. To extract the most value from these reports, one personnel or a small team should review the mega-report upon each release and present important insights at broader strategy meetings (for example, once every board period). A process should also be put in place for cases where the results from a report indicate more urgent issues.
Resourcing Recognizing that NFT is resource constrained, the use of automated CleverReports reporting is a relatively low-effort data opportunity that can be focused on one or two KPIs. Not including the effort to set this up, these activities could begin with one to two hours of staff effort per week. The data tasks could become part of the portfolio of a technical staff member. Should NFT wish to increase their use of data over time (e.g. through more reports or KPIs), staffing needs and resourcing may increase, but it is not expected that NFT will require a staff member dedicated to data management.
7.3 Conclusions NFT is well-positioned to invest in data analytics and visualization tools in the short-term. With limited investments in data visualization and reporting processes, as well as some new processes to get value out of the new data, NFT can begin to appreciate the value of the advanced systems it has already invested in. Setting up these systems would be a one-time effort and could be contracted out to a third party with experience with data visualization and/or CleverReports automations. Taking advantage of the data you collect is an ongoing process that will yield ongoing benefits.
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8 Financial and Staffing Plan
8.1 Financial Plan This chapter summarizes the financial plan for the five-year service plan consisting of operating and capital budget estimates, subject to final implementation timing in future. Estimated operating costs associated with each year of the plan are listed and represent annualized, “full year” expenditures assuming a January 1st implementation of the service changes each year. All costs are in 2019 dollars with no allowance for inflation, changes in fare levels, or changes in non-fare revenues in view of the uncertainty surrounding the effects of COVID-19. However, added fare revenue attributable to a projected ridership increase is included. These increases are, of course, highly conjectural at this stage. On the capital side, the primary change in the budget projection is the addition of expansion bus purchases beyond the five-year plan and expansion of the Transit Services facility. Other changes include additional bus shelters. Costs associated with changes or upgrades to terminals, hubs, and transfer points at intersections and at other terminal locations have not been costed as these are included in the Department’s capital budget and Investing in Canada Infrastructure Program (ICIP) funding.
Operating Budget The operating budget in Exhibit 8.1 presents the projected expenditures for each of the five years of the plan with 2019 as the base. The total operating cost estimates for each year are calculated on NFT’s 2019 cost per service hour of $123.58 while the fare revenue estimate is based on the 2019 average fare of $1.36 and the projected increase in ridership but with no adjustment for potential fare increases in future. The “Other” revenues are held constant since the factors influencing these revenues has not been analyzed. Similarly, the funding received by the City from the provincial gas tax is also shown as a constant although it may vary in future. This budget indicates that the annual operating cost will increase to $14,264,639 by Year 5 (exclusive of inflation) based on the increased annual service hours. Fare revenues will increase to $2,940,288 based on the projected ridership increase of from 2.25% to 4.5% per year, compounded, with no adjustment in fare levels as discussed in Section 4.2. The Net Municipal Investment will increase to $8,748,552 by Year 5.
November 20, 2020 46 IBI GROUP REPORT TRANSIT STRATEGIC BUSINESS PLAN AND RIDERSHIP GROWTH STRATEGY: FIVE-YEAR UPDATE Prepared for the City of Niagara Falls Exhibit 8.1: Five-Year Service Plan Budget Forecast 2019 Change Category (Base) Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Base – Y5 Service Hours 84,121 92,129 98,223 104,593 110,514 115,428 31,307 Ridership Estimate 1,794,000 1,834,000 1,898,000 1,984,00 2,073,000 2,166,000 373,000 Employees (FTEs) 90 94 100 107 113 117 27 Buses* 33 27 28 33 33 33 0 Revenue Sources Passenger Revenues $2,434,654 $2,489,433 $2,576,563 $2,692,509 $2,813,427 $2,940,288 $505,634 (including U-Pass) Other (maintenance, $2,043,798 $2,043,798 $2,043,798 $2,043,798 $2,043,798 $2,043,798 - WEGO) Total Revenue $4,478,452 $4,533,231 $4,620,361 $4,736,307 $4,857,225 $4,984,086 $505,634 Operating Budget Transportation/ $6,553,451 Operations Fuel $1,254,191 Vehicle Maintenance $2,146,923 Plant & Premises $441,142 General/Administration - Total Operating $10,395,707 $11,385,339 $12,138,438 $12,925,645 $13,657,365 $14,264,639 $3,868,932 Expenses Provincial Gas Tax $532,000 $532,000 $532,000 $532,000 $532,000 $532,000 - Net Municipal $5,385,255 $6,320,108 $6,986,077 $7,657,338 $8,268,139 $8,748,552 $3,363,297 Investment Note: *2019 peak bus requirement is for 20 vehicles.
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The indicated additional staff costs (for bus operators and maintenance staff) are assumed to be included in the projected increased operating costs based on the service hours. Additional administration and operational costs for consultation, promotion, and marketing of the changes in each year of the service plan are anticipated to be required. These may be additional to NFTs base budget for these activities and will need to be reviewed and confirmed at the time of preparing the annual operating budget each year. Also, NFT should review its bus operator training capacity to accommodate the required additional bus operator complement each year. It is suggested that the City consider a higher investment in marketing, communications, and promotion activities to encourage people to return to transit as the community emerges from the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic.
Capital Budget As indicated in Section 6.1, the service plan requires no additional buses by Year 5 in view of the current high spare ratio of 65% and the expectation of a reduction in the ratio to 25%. The City’s capital budget provides for the purchase of 8 buses as replacements for life-expired units as well as 3 buses for growth purposes. Other capital expenditures as part of implementing the five-year service plan are: Additional shelters: 135 over the period of the service plan at an estimated cost of approximately $2.0 million, subject to shelter design and location preparation, or $400,000 per year. Annual maintenance costs would be additional. Expansion of the Transit Services facility: Funding for this project is part of the City’s ICIP application. For the service projections beyond 5 years, future bus requirements would be 8 to 9 buses for service expansion depending on the fleet spare ratio as well as detailed service planning.
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8.2 Staffing Plan To implement the recommended service plan, as well as position to department to better plan and manage the transit service and service improvements, additional bus operator, maintenance staff resources will be required as outlined below.
Bus Operators Based on the projected increase in transit service levels and revenue-hours of 30,950 over the term of the 5-year plan and the current bus operator productivity rate of 1,275 revenue service hours, 24 additional bus operators would be required, subject to detailed scheduling and final runcutting. On an annual basis, the number of bus operators would be as shown in Exhibit 8.2. Each of these positions will need to be brought on in advance of the intended implementation date of the service improvements, such as September of each year, and will require training. Training time would be an additional labour cost compared to the estimated operating costs.
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Exhibit 8.2: Bus Operator Requirements – Years 1 to 5 Bus Operators Required Year-Over- Year Total (FTE) Year Increase 2020 66 - Year 1 72 +6 Year 2 77 +5 Year 3 82 +5 Year 4 87 +5 Year 5 91 +4 Change - +24
Maintenance Staff With regard to maintenance staffing, while the fleet is not projected to increase in total from the present level (33 buses) within the first five years of the plan, subject to any change or reduction in the spare ratio, the increase in revenue- hours per bus will require additional maintenance staff. Any increase assumes the purchase of clean diesel buses. Should a different vehicle technology be adopted then there may be an impact on the maintenance staff requirements.
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9 Conclusions and Recommendations
The foregoing chapters outlined the recommended five- and ten-year service plan for Niagara Falls Transit, designed to improve and enhance this service consistent with the overall objective of increasing transit ridership. The plan provides direction and actions for enhancing the City’s investment in its transit system. The plan proposes some restructuring of the transit route network along with a transition to consistent service on all days of the week to better serve residents’ travel patterns, serve new areas of the city, and address challenges with service segmentation.
9.1 Key Conclusions The following are the key elements of the Transit Strategic Business Plan and Ridership Growth Strategy (the “Plan”): Modify the NFT route network with a particular focus on evening and Sunday/Holiday service improvements: Replace WEGO transfers with an extended route 104, providing coverage on Lundy’s Lane; Improve service frequencies on select routes during peak and off-peak periods; Extend 100-series route service through evenings, Sundays, and Holidays to provide a consistent network on all days of the week at all times of day; and Allocate new service hours for demand-responsive service in growing areas of the city. Increase transit service levels progressively over the five-year period of the plan from approximately 84,121 revenue hours in 2019 to 115,428 revenue hours in year 5 (2025). Retain the existing NFT transfer policy, but with consideration to an extended 90-minute transfer window with future service expansion. Encourage high school students to use local transit through policy changes. Ridership on NFT is projected to increase from approximately 1,794,000 in 2019 to approximately 2,166,000 in year 5 (2025).
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Total operating costs for NFT would change from $10,395,707 in 2019 to $14,264,639 in year 5 (2025). The City’s net annual investment in the operating cost of the transit system would increase from $5,385,255 in 2019 to $8,748,852 in year 5 (2025). Expand the Transit Services facility to store more buses indoors and provide additional maintenance space for 18 m (articulated) buses. Continue utilizing the existing Morrison/Dorchester location as the main local-regional transit Hub with planned upgrades until a suitable alternative site is identified.
9.2 Recommendations It is recommended that: The Transit Strategic Business Plan and Ridership Growth Strategy: Five-Year Update report with five- and ten-year service plans for the city’s conventional transit service be received and referred to staff and City Council for implementation; The Plan form the basis for the improvement of the city’s transit services over the period 2021 to 2030 and for the planning, management, and operation of transit services within the city; The goals, objectives, service standards, and policies set out in the Plan be adopted; City staff be authorized to proceed to implement the recommended NFT route network changes over the period 2021 to 2025; and Transit Services and other City staff proceed with implementing the service plan route network and service level changes, subject to annual implementation plans to include the associated human resource and infrastructure requirements and the service level and service hour increases within the 2021 and subsequent transit operating and capital budgets.
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Appendix A – Organization and Staffing Review Report
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Appendix B – Data Systems Review Memorandum
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Appendix C – Service and Route Review Needs Assessment Report
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