Projected Playoff Rotation Has Enough Talent to Make Noise in Postseason

THE ATHLETIC DATE: 05/04/2021 Hawks’ projected playoff rotation has enough talent to make noise in postseason By: Chris Kirschner https://theathletic.com/2566608/2021/05/05/hawks-projected-playoff-rotation-has-enough-talent-to- make-noise-in-postseason/ For what seems like the first time all season, the Hawks are mostly healthy outside of Cam Reddish’s Achilles soreness that will sideline him through the end of the regular season, at minimum, and De’Andre Hunter’s knee soreness, which who knows when and if he’ll be able to return this season. Because of the amount of injuries this team has battled, it has made rotation decisions much easier for Nate McMillan on a nightly basis, as some nights it has just been as simple as answering the question of: Who’s available? Now that there are only two names on the injury report (this is the time you can knock on wood), the decision of who plays how many minutes is given serious thought. For instance, Kris Dunn has missed the past two games not because he has sustained any setbacks after coming back from ankle surgery but because McMillan felt Solomon Hill should be playing over him. “It’s just a numbers game,” McMillan said Monday night. “We have guys who are now healthy. Our guards are healthy now, and it’s just a numbers game. I’m gonna go with Lou (Williams) and Kevin (Huerter) in the backcourt, Solo and Tony (Snell) are the guys playing the wing position with (Danilo Gallinari). He’s fine.” This team’s depth was one of the major talking points entering the season. Thankfully for the Hawks, it’s also what has helped them stay afloat throughout this condensed season. Now that the roster is mostly intact ahead of the playoffs, players who we’ve seen become fixtures in the rotation might have to play less. McMillan said Monday how he’s comfortable with rotations that are nine to “nine and a half” deep — he doesn’t quite literally mean having half a body available but a flex option who can play in certain matchups or in certain moments of the game. That means players are going to have to put their egos to the side and possibly accept smaller roles as the season progresses and the stakes rise. “Everyone wants to play, especially in a situation like this where we have had so many injuries that a lot of guys have basically become our rotation,” McMillan said. “A guy like Solomon Hill came to this team at the start of the season not expecting to play the minutes and the role he has had to play the last couple of months. Solomon has been a starter, he’s come off the bench, he’s played the three, he’s played the four — he’s done a number of things for us. Tony Snell wasn’t even playing at the beginning of the season and has came in and given us some good minutes and has become a starter. He’s played the three, he’s guarded some of the best players on opposing teams. (On Monday), he started on (Damian) Lillard. He has had to play that role. Brandon (Goodwin) has been a starter for us and has had some success. Once we get everyone healthy, it’s just impossible to (play everyone). It shows the depth we have. If we take advantage of that and understand that we all are going to have to sacrifice a little for the sake of the team, again, we should be a stronger, tougher team.” Sacrificing was the message during Tuesday’s practice, McMillan said. It’s a good problem to have though if you’re the Hawks. They’re getting healthier at the right time of the season, and figuring out who your top eight, nine, ten guys are is a luxury and not a laborious issue. “I feel like a lot of teams when we’re healthy do not want to see us,” John Collins said. “We have a lot of versatility, a lot of pace, a lot of skilled guys who can do a lot of things, we obviously added Coach McMillan. I’m very excited about this squad and hopefully the chemistry can continue to build and we can get some things shaking.” The Hawks have already clinched a spot in at least the play-in tournament, so they will be playing in some form of postseason basketball. What we don’t know yet is where they’ll be seeded. Atlanta still has a good chance of being the four seed in the Eastern Conference because of its favorable schedule and the Knicks’ challenging schedule. No matter where they end up in the playoffs, this is the group I expect to be in the rotation: Hawks' playoff minutes breakdown PLAYER MINUTES Trae Young 36 Bogdan Bogdanovic 32 Tony Snell 20 John Collins 28 Clint Capela 30 Danilo Gallinari 27 Kevin Huerter 25 PLAYER MINUTES Lou Williams 18 Solomon Hill 20 De'Andre Hunter 30* Hunter has an asterisk next to his minutes total because we still don’t know if he’ll be available. If he is, it would give the Hawks a boost because Hill could be removed completely and minutes to Snell could be cut. But Hunter’s availability is a mystery. He has missed 46 total games, had meniscus surgery, came back for two games and hasn’t played since due to his knee swelling. If Hunter is available with no restrictions, it gives the Hawks a starting five and closing group that all have a positive Estimated Plus- Minus, arguably the best catch-all advanced metric publicly available. If Hunter isn’t cleared, the last spot in the rotation will likely go to Hill or Dunn. It was surprising to not see Dunn play against the Trail Blazers because of their backcourt scoring prowess in Lillard and CJ McCollum. Dunn could play any spot on the floor one through three, if the team wanted to go small, but either way, he’d have to be surrounded by as many shooters as possible due to the lack of offense he brings. When the team has Gallinari or Collins at the five, Dunn could work well as a stopper in the backcourt. It’s clear, though, that McMillan trusts Hill and Snell over Dunn at this point though, and that’s likely what’s going to cause him to not play much in the playoffs. I do not think we will see Onyeka Okongwu, Nathan Knight, Skylar Mays, Brandon Goodwin or Bruno Fernando at any point in the playoffs other than garbage time. Okongwu is getting consistent playing time now, but the Hawks likely better off rolling with Clint Capela, Gallinari and Collins in the front court. Okongwu is just too raw right now to trust in a playoff atmosphere. While Reddish hasn’t been fully ruled out of the playoffs yet, it’s hard seeing him get any playing time over Hill and Snell. The clear strength of this team is the amount of shooting it can have on the floor, outside of Capela. As we saw on Monday night against Portland, it’s going to be difficult to stop this team if it’s shooting the way it did against the Blazers. Bogdan Bogdanovic is currently one of the best and hottest shooters in the NBA, and having someone who shoots over 40 percent from 3 coming off the bench in Gallinari is deadly. What I am most interested in is how this team will hold up defensively in a seven-game series and how opposing teams will force the ball out of Trae Young’s hands. We haven’t seen a team scheme against Young in his career outside of a game-to-game basis before. Young’s playmaking ability is such a weapon though that with the amount of shooters that surround him, even if teams double him, it’s likely going to lead to a high-quality shot from one of Bogdanovic, Gallinari, Collins or Huerter. Defensively, I am curious if a backcourt of Young and Bogdanovic can hold up — and if the Gallinari/Collins frontcourt isn’t a disaster. Capela getting into early foul trouble will likely give this team issues on that end of the floor. If this team can continue to stay mostly healthy, the Hawks have enough talent to advance past the first round — and what an accomplishment that would be considering all of the adversity they’ve faced all season. Back to Top .

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