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Moral Character Or Character of War? American Public Opinion on the Targeting of Civilians in Times of War

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Moral Character Or Character of War? American Public Opinion on the Targeting of Civilians in Times of War Moral Character or Character of War? American Public Opinion on the Targeting of Civilians in Times of War Benjamin Valentino Downloaded from http://direct.mit.edu/daed/article-pdf/145/4/127/1830773/daed_a_00417.pdf by guest on 26 September 2021 Abstract: Since the end of the Vietnam War, the United States has refrained from the widespread, inten- tional targeting of civilian populations in times of war. Public opinion polls seem to reflect a marked de- cline in American support for targeting foreign civilians since that time. Drawing on original public opin- ion surveys, as well as other historical material, this essay explores several explanations for these changes. Although there is some evidence that the public’s views about the morality of civilian targeting have shift- ed, I argue that two other explanations also play an important role in the changes in the conduct of Amer- ican wars. First, a mounting skepticism, especially within the U.S. military, about the efficacy of killing civilians, has undercut the primary motivation to even consider such tactics. Indeed, many U.S. military leaders now perceive that killing adversary civilians in large numbers–intentionally or unintentionally – usually backfires, making the adversary fight harder or driving more civilians to join or support the ad- versary’s forces. Second, due to the lower stakes, and especially the dramatically lower fatality rates suf- fered by American troops in recent wars, the temptation to attempt to end wars quickly with a “death blow” against adversary cities has become less potent. Under certain conditions, however, a majority of Americans would still support today the kind of population bombing last practiced during World War II. Nineteen forty-five was the dawn of not only the nuclear era, but also the era of scientific public opin- ion polling. In September of that year, Roper Opin- ion Research conducted a nationwide public opin- BENJAMIN VALENTINO is Asso- ion poll for Fortune magazine on the use of nuclear ciate Professor of Government at weapons against Japan one month earlier. The results Dartmouth College. He is the au- showed that the majority of the nation (54 percent) thor of Final Solutions: Mass Killing agreed that the United States “should have used the and Genocide in the Twentieth Centu- two bombs on cities, just as we did.”1 But 14 percent ry (2004) and has contributed ar- believed that “we should have dropped one first on ticles to such publications as The New York Times, The Wall Street Jour- some unpopulated region, to show the Japanese [the nal, Foreign Affairs, The American Po- bomb’s] power, and only dropped the second one on litical Science Review, Security Studies, a city if they hadn’t surrendered after the first one.” and The Journal of Politics. Only 5 percent of the public felt that “we should not © 2016 by the American Academy of Arts & Sciences doi:10.1162/DAED_ a_00417 127 Moral have used any atomic bombs at all,” while more) civilian casualties on its adversaries. Character 23 percent, however, preferred instead that A large proportion of these deaths resulted or Character of War? “we should have quickly used many more from the intentional targeting of civilian of them before Japan had a chance to sur- populations. In contrast, in the 1991 Persian render.”2 This echoed a 1944 poll that asked, Gulf War, the United States killed less than “What do you think we should do with Ja- four thousand civilians in military attacks. pan as a country?” to which 13 percent of Approximately five hundred civilians were American respondents chose “kill all Jap- killed by nato airstrikes in Kosovo in 1999.6 anese.”3 Although racism and the resent- In the Iraq War, the human rights organiza- ment provoked by Pearl Harbor undoubted- tion Iraq Body Count estimates that U.S. and ly hardened attitudes against the Japanese, coalition forces killed approximately four- Downloaded from http://direct.mit.edu/daed/article-pdf/145/4/127/1830773/daed_a_00417.pdf by guest on 26 September 2021 there was also virtually no public opposi- teen thousand civilians from 2003 to 2011.7 tion to the U.S. and British bombing of ci- Although the estimated thirty thousand to- vilian populations in Germany, which killed tal civilian deaths in Afghanistan have not nearly as many civilians as were killed by the been systematically attributed to the vari- U.S. bombing of Japan. ous parties to the war, a very rough estimate Many Americans contemplating these re- based on un data suggests that U.S., coali- sults today will be shaken by the willingness tion, and “pro-government” Afghan forces of their fellow citizens to support the inten- probably killed less than six thousand civil- tional killing of hundreds of thousands of ians from 2001 to 2014, with approximate- civilians. Indeed, when I replicated the 1945 ly half of those deaths caused by coalition atomic bombing poll in 2012, using nearly airstrikes.8 identical wording, the results were mark- Deterrence cannot explain America’s edly different.4 Sixty-seven years later, only more humane conduct in recent wars. The 30.2 percent of the public agreed that drop- United States has maintained this policy of ping the bombs on Hiroshima and Naga- comparative restraint despite the fact that saki had been the right choice. More than none of the adversaries the United States twice as many (29.9 percent) indicated has engaged with militarily since World that they would have preferred a demon- War II has possessed the capacity to retal- stration first on an unpopulated region, iate in kind. In fact, the U.S. military has while more than four times as many people gone to considerable lengths in recent de- in 2012 (19.8 percent) said that the Unit- cades to minimize the killing of civilians ed States should not have dropped any during war, including adopting rules of en- bombs on Japan. Just 2.5 percent regretted gagement that increase risks to U.S. troops that the United States had not used many or choosing weapons that reduce collater- more bombs before Japan had the chance al damage but diminish the chances of suc- to surrender–about one-tenth the propor- cessfully destroying military targets. In a tion who preferred that option in 1945.5 review of the U.S. military’s conduct in the Although the United States’ military capa- Iraq War, security scholar Colin Kahl has bility to lay waste to its adversaries’ cities has argued that although U.S. military forces grown exponentially since the end of World killed thousands of Iraqi civilians as collat- War II, the United States has, at least since eral damage, the United States had “dra- the end of the Vietnam War, refrained from matically reduced the number of civil- the widespread, intentional targeting of ci- ian casualties relative to what they might vilian populations in times of war. In World otherwise have been in the age of carpet War II, Korea, and Vietnam, the United bombing.”9 By Kahl’s calculation, even States inflicted hundreds of thousands (or putting aside the important distinction 128 Dædalus, the Journal of the American Academy of Arts & Sciences between intentional targeting and collat- These three explanations for the shift Benjamin eral deaths, the rate of “Iraqi civilian fatal- in American attitudes toward war are not Valentino ities attributable to direct U.S. action and mutually exclusive. Under certain circum- crossfire through the end of 2006 were 17 stances, however, the different underlying to 30 times lower than those from bomb- mechanisms identified by each of these ex- ing and shelling alone in Vietnam.”10 planations may push Americans in diver- What can explain this apparent transfor- gent directions. Whether the relatively re- mation in U.S. conduct of war and public strained pattern of warfare that the United attitudes toward the use of force? Drawing States has observed for the past forty years on public opinion surveys, as well as other will be sustained in the next forty will de- historical material, this essay will explore pend upon the relative strength of these Downloaded from http://direct.mit.edu/daed/article-pdf/145/4/127/1830773/daed_a_00417.pdf by guest on 26 September 2021 three broad explanations for the change. mechanisms. The first explanation–the one most com- monly cited by scholars of the conduct of The most commonly articulated argu- war–claims that there has been a decisive ment for the decline in the intentional tar- shift in the norms surrounding the target- geting of civilian populations by the Unit- ing of civilians. By this account, Americans’ ed States since 1945 focuses on the increas- ideas about what constitutes appropriate ing internalization by Americans of the and ethical conduct in war have changed for international norm of noncombatant im- the better. The second explanation points munity. Although the principle that civil- to changing ideas about how to win wars, ians deserve at least some protection from rather than focusing on changing under- the horrors of combat is one of the oldest standings of the ethics of war. Whereas rules of warfare, many scholars assert that in World War II, attacking civilian morale the norm began to spread faster and gen- or productive capacity through strategic erate a much higher degree of compliance bombing was seen as an effective strategy after World War II and the entry into force for coercing surrender, by the end of the of the Fourth Geneva Convention in 1949.11 Vietnam War, military and civilian elites, Airpower expert Ward Thomas, for exam- and perhaps the public as well, had be- ple, contends that “the bombing norm has gun to question the efficacy of intention- slowly recovered from the catastrophe of ally killing civilians.
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