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DEBT STATISTICS – DECEMBER 2018 Republic of Serbia – Public Debt Administration Contents

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DEBT STATISTICS – DECEMBER 2018 Republic of Serbia – Public Debt Administration Contents Republic of Serbia – Public Debt Administration DEBT STATISTICS – DECEMBER 2018 Republic of Serbia – Public Debt Administration Contents Page 3 Debt Stock of the Republic of Serbia on December 31, 2018, Analysis of Debt Stock of the Republic of Serbia from the end of year 2000 till Page 4 December 2018 Page 5 Public Debt to GDP ratio Page 6 Currency Structure Page 7 Interest Rate Structure Page 8 Local Government Debt Structure Page 9 Local Government Debt – FX and Interest Rate Structure Page 10 Local Government Debt – Creditors Structure Page 11 Local Government Debt – Risk Indicators 2 Republic of Serbia – Public Debt Administration Debt stock of the Republic of Serbia PUBLIC DEBT OF THE REPUBLIC OF SERBIA DEBT STOCK OF THE REPUBLIC OF SERBIA ON DECEMBER 31, 2018 In Thousands In Million A. Direct Liabilities EUR USD RSD I - Total Domestic Debt (direct liabilities) 9,413,530 10,761,543 1,112,628 II - Total External Debt (direct liabilities) 12,077,010 13,806,432 1,427,437 IBRD 2,165,247 2,475,309 255,920 IDA 268,950 307,464 31,788 EIB 1,168,136 1,335,412 138,067 EBRD 77,049 88,083 9,107 CEB 106,894 122,202 12,634 Foreign Government loans 2,659,640 3,040,499 314,355 Export - Import Bank of China 894,928 1,023,081 105,776 Eurobonds 3,061,583 3,500,000 361,863 KfW Development Bank 69,976 79,996 8,271 Paris and London Club of Creditors 1,093,390 1,249,963 129,233 European Union 38,734 44,281 4,578 IMF 472,483 540,142 55,845 Commercial Bank loans 0 0 0 Total Direct Liabilities (I + II) 21,490,539 24,567,975 2,540,066 B. Contingent Liabilities EUR USD RSD III - Total Domestic Debt (contingent liabilities) 154,581 176,717 18,271 IV - Total External Debt (contingent liabilities) 1,369,482 1,565,591 161,865 EBRD 448,462 512,681 53,006 EIB 693,592 792,914 81,979 KfW 99,203 113,408 11,725 European Union 0 0 0 EUROFIMA 38,192 43,661 4,514 IDA 10,498 12,001 1,241 Japan International Cooperation Agency - JICA 31,859 36,421 3,766 Foreign Government loans 21,581 24,672 2,551 Commercial Bank loans 26,097 29,834 3,084 Total Contingent Liabilities (III + IV) 1,524,063 1,742,308 180,136 C. Non-Guaranteed Local Government Debt EUR USD RSD V - Total Domestic Non-Guaranteed Local Government Debt 215,912 246,830 25,520 VI - Total External Non-Guaranteed Local Government Debt 97,924 111,947 11,574 Total Non-Guaranteed Debt (V + VI) 313,836 358,777 37,094 Central Government Debt (A + B) 23,014,603 26,310,283 2,720,202 General Government Debt (A + B + C) 23,328,438 26,669,060 2,757,295 3 Republic of Serbia – Public Debt Administration Analysis of debt stock of the Republic of Serbia: Central Government Millions EUR PUBLIC DEBT OF THE REPUBLIC OF SERBIA ANALYSIS OF THE CENTRAL GOVERNMENT DEBT STOCK OF THE REPUBLIC OF SERBIA FROM THE END OF YEAR 2000 TILL DECEMBER 2018 А. DIRECT LIABILITIES 31/12/00 31/12/01 31/12/02 31/12/03 31/12/04 31/12/05 31/12/06 31/12/07 31/12/08 31/12/09 31/12/10 31/12/11 31/12/12 31/12/13 31/12/14 31/12/15 31/12/16 31/12/17 31/12/18 Domestic Debt 4,108 3,871 4,152 4,240 4,064 4,255 3,837 3,413 3,162 4,050 4,572 5,441 6,496 7,055 8,225 9,051 8,768 9,089 9,414 External Debt 10,059 9,561 7,230 6,564 5,267 5,364 4,746 4,616 4,691 4,406 5,873 7,239 8,621 10,245 11,992 13,370 13,908 12,370 12,077 Total Direct Liabilities 14,167 13,432 11,382 10,803 9,331 9,620 8,583 8,029 7,853 8,457 10,444 12,679 15,117 17,299 20,217 22,421 22,676 21,459 21,491 B. CONTINGENT LIABILITIES Domestic Debt 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 135 340 536 723 857 687 608 382 209 155 External Debt 0 2 147 220 344 663 769 846 929 1,257 1,372 1,574 1,878 1,985 1,858 1,790 1,763 1,554 1,369 Total Contingent Liabilities 0 2 147 220 344 663 769 846 929 1,392 1,712 2,110 2,600 2,842 2,545 2,397 2,144 1,763 1,524 Total Central Government Debt 14,167 13,434 11,529 11,023 9,676 10,283 9,352 8,875 8,781 9,849 12,157 14,789 17,717 20,141 22,762 24,819 24,820 23,222 23,015 4 Republic of Serbia – Public Debt Administration Public Debt to GDP ratio: Central Government Central Government 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 December 2018 Debt/GDP (%) 47.6 33.9 27.9 26.8 30.9 39.5 42.8 52.9 56.0 66.2 70.0 67.8 57.9 53.8 75 70,0 66,2 67,8 56,0 57,9 52,9 53.8 50 47,6 42,8 39,5 33,9 30,9 27,9 26,8 In percentageIn 25 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 December 2018 * In accordance with the revised GDP data for the period 2005-2017. published by RZS 5 Republic of Serbia – Public Debt Administration Currency structure Central Government Level General Government Level Share of outstanding Share of outstanding Currency Amount in RSD Currency Amount in RSD debt % debt % RSD 708,389,149,890 26.04% RSD 713.875.172.367 25,89% EUR 1,089,364,945,581 40.05% EUR 1.120.608.859.830 40,64% USD 719,991,031,898 26.47% USD 720.309.019.300 26,12% CHF 12,671,967,852 0.47% CHF 12.717.732.259 0,46% SDR 88,874,204,831 3.27% SDR 88.874.204.831 3,22% Other * 100,910,445,062 3.71% Other * 100.910.445.062 3,66% Total 2,720,201,745,114 100% Total 2.757.295.433.650 100% * GBP, JPY, DKK, SEK, NOK EUR EUR 40,0% 40,6% RSD RSD 26,0% 25,9% USD USD 26,5% 26,1% Other * Other * SDR CHF SDR CHF 3,7% 3,7% 3,3% 0,5% 3,2% 0,5% 6 Republic of Serbia – Public Debt Administration Interest rate structure: Interest Rate Structure on the 31 of Central Government December 2018 Total Central Government Debt 2.720.201.745.114 19% Fixed Interest Rates 2.209.101.017.394 Variable Interest Rates 511.100.727.720 EURIBOR and LIBOR EUR 400.822.539.307 LIBOR USD 26.601.663.895 LIBOR CHF 8.157.918.152 LIBOR GBP 480.462.181 LIBOR JPY 710.233.139 STIBOR 293.769.199 NIBOR 485.207.881 CIBOR 639.543.077 81% BELIBOR Key Policy Rate 2.612.745.000 SDR Interest Rate 55.844.946.627 Аustrian market interest rate and other KFW rates* 14.451.699.261 Fixed Interest Rates Variable Interest Rates Total Central Government Debt 100,00% Variable Interest Rate Structure Fixed Interest Rates 81,21% on the 31 of December 2018 Variable Interest Rates 18,79% EURIBOR and LIBOR EUR 14,74% LIBOR USD 0,98% LIBOR CHF 0,30% 15% LIBOR GBP 0,02% LIBOR JPY 0,03% 2% STIBOR 0,01% NIBOR 0,02% 5% CIBOR 0,02% BELIBOR Key Policy Rate 0,10% SDR Interest Rate 2,05% Аustrian market interest rate and other KFW rates* 0,53% EURIBOR and LIBOR EUR 78,42% LIBOR USD 5,20% LIBOR CHF 1,60% 78% Other variable interest rates 14,78% Total 100,00% •other interest rates that forms depending on interest rates of Securities (T-bills) of most developed countries, EURIBOR and LIBOR EUR LIBOR USD LIBOR CHF Other variable interest rates 7 Ministry of Finance of the Republic of Serbia – Public Debt Administration Local Government Debt Stock and Structure Local Government Debt trends Guaranteed Vs Non-Guaranteed Debt 160 60 54,2 54,4 131,1 132,6 134,5 52,7 52,3 140 124,4 109,9 50 45,4 120 99,7 123,7 127,6 94,3 39,0 100 118,1 40 36,8 In RSD bn RSD In 107,8 In RSD bn RSD In 30,4 80 93,1 93,3 89,6 29,5 29,6 28,0 30 26,9 26,3 81,2 82,2 81,9 75,7 60 76,0 41,9 21,7 35,9 67,0 63,1 40 26,6 51,9 26,6 20 17,2 26,3 20 10 0 0 Contracted Amount Withdrawed Amount Repaid Amount Debt Stock Guaranteed Debt Non-Guaranteed Debt Domestic Vs, External Debt In Percentage of GDP 50 45,5 2,50% 42,6 43,7 45 41,6 2,12% 2,10% 2,12% 39,6 40,7 38,6 39,6 1,90% 40 37,3 36,4 37,9 2,00% 1,68% 35 32,1 1,51% 1,40% 1,41% 30 26,3 1,50% 1,36% 25,2 1,21% 1,25% In RSD bn RSD In 25 1,00% 1,00% 0,82% 20 0,73% 15 10 0,50% 5 0 0,00% Total Domestic Debt Total Foreign Debt Total Local Government Debt O/W Non-Guaranteed Debt 8 Ministry of Finance of the Republic of Serbia – Public Debt Administration Local Government Debt – FX and Interest Rate Structure Currency compositon – in RSD bn Interest Rate structure 100% 0,4 0,3 0,3 0,2 0,2 0,1 0,0 70 6,6 5,5 90% 15,3 11,5 58,6 18,0 16,8 17,4 60 80% 70% 50 45,5 45,1 43,8 38,1 39,1 60% 40 35,7 37,1 36,6 In RSD bn RSD In 33,433,7 31,3 50% 31,8 64,1 60,3 57,5 30 40% 57,5 64,1 64,5 66,4 17,3 30% 20 20% 10 10% 0% 0 CHF RSD EUR Fixed Rate Variable Rates EUR/RSD and CHF/RSD Exchange Rate Compositon of Variable Interest Rates 130,0 45 125,0 40 120,0 35 115,0 30 InRSDbn 110,0 25 105,0 20 100,0 15 10 95,0 5 90,0 0 85,0 Euribor Libor Belibor NBS Key Policy Rate Reference Consumer Price Index Others EURRSD NBSA Curncy CHFRSD NBSA Curncy 9 Ministry of Finance of the Republic of Serbia – Public Debt Administration Local Government Debt – Creditors Structure Debt Stock as of 31 Creditors Withdrawn Amount December, 2018 EIB 31,050,867,682 25,568,489,806 EBRD 15,645,850,110 12,303,863,920 Domestic Intesa Bank 11,107,625,134 6,943,754,509 Creditors Commercial Bank 7,582,999,385 6,273,576,656 40,0% UniCredit Bank 6,801,745,196 2,721,475,838 ERSTE Bank 2,583,799,125 1,448,603,931 Postanska Stedionica Bank 1,722,347,523 958,891,897 Foreign AIK Bank 1,255,114,673 956,512,826 Creditors Societe Generale Bank 1,174,744,874 895,059,236 60,0% Addiko Bank 827,719,800 410,523,757 Others 9,883,082,678 4,593,198,096 Total 89,635,896,179 63,073,950,471 35 31,1 Withdrawn Amount Debt Stock as of 31 December, 2018 30 25,6 25 20 In RSD bn RSD In 15,6 15 12,3 11,1 9,9 10 6,9 7,6 6,8 6,3 4,6 1,2 5 2,7 2,6 1,7 0,8 1,4 1,0 1,3 1,0 0,9 0,4 0 10 Ministry of Finance of the Republic of Serbia – Public Debt Administration Local Government Debt – Risk Indicators Analysis of Local Government’s Credit Potential Highly Indebted Local Governments The Lowest Credit Potential The Highest Credit Potential Debt Stock as of 31 Local Government December, 2018 Available Long Term Credit Available Long Term Credit Local Government Local Government Beograd 35,769,682,669 Potential Potential AP Vojvodina 5,854,308,368
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