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CAN EUROPE BE THE MOST ENTREPRENEURIAL CONTINENT? 29 October 2020 1 Journey so far: Europe ditching its old image 2 Present: Entrepreneurship, jobs, skills, innovation 3 Future: What’s needed most in the next five years 3 Journey so far: Ditching an old image Why do we need entrepreneurialism? NASDAQ $10 trillion Personal The Mobile Cloud AI computing web computing computing Apple $2.1T Covid-19 Microsoft $1.7T Amazon $1.7T Google $1.1T Dotcom Facebook $0.8T Crash Banking Alibaba $0.8T crisis Tencent $0.7T K-shaped recovery 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s 2010s 2020s Page / 4 EuropeanStartups.co Source: Dealroom.co and Google Finance data as of October 14, 2020 A huge part of the US economy is now venture-backed. $1.2 trillion VC invested since 1995 $10 trillion value of VC-backed companies Almost 50% of R&D spending >10% of jobs Page / 5 EuropeanStartups.co - slide inspired by Klaus Hommels How does Europe compare? $1.2 trillion $200 billion VC invested since 1995 6x less $10 trillion $700 billion value of VC-backed companies 14x less Almost 50% of R&D spending Not meaningful >10% of jobs <1% of jobs Page / 6 EuropeanStartups.co - slide inspired by Klaus Hommels Since 2005, European venture capital started to ramp up. Salesforce ($160B) Netflix Tesla ($180B) ($160B) Facebook € 230B Amazon Google ($650B) ($1.2T) ($1.0T) European VC ramps up » United States » Asia 5% 16% 10% 15% 13% 12% 4% » Europe 2020E Global venture capital invested Page / 7 EuropeanStartups.co Source: Dealroom.co. Note: 2020 is annualized based on Jan - Oct. Europe has created 205 unicorns, mostly venture backed. Cumulative number of European unicorns created by year $1 billion valuation was reached 20% VC backed 87% VC backed €136M average funding (1) ~€355M average funding (1) Page / 8 EuropeanStartups.co Source: Dealroom.co. 1. Mean funding when reaching unicorn status. Top 5 most valuable VC-backed companies since 2005. 2.5x $419B $170B Page / 9 EuropeanStartups.co Source: Dealroom.co and Google Finance data as of October 14, 2020 Remarkably, 38% of all global seed stage capital is raised by European startups. % investment in 2019-2020 per round size and per region Row Asia North America Europe Page / 10 EuropeanStartups.co Source: Dealroom.co Note: the labels “Seed”, “Series A” are standardised labels per Dealroom.co method, not the reported labels as they are not consistently applied. Three generations of European startups 38% of all seed capital is invested in Europe Adyen vs. Stripe Spotify vs. Netflix Just Eat Takeaway vs. Uber Eats Amazon, Google, Facebook, Microsoft etc. Unchallenged in Europe Up to 2005 2005-2015 Today PagePage / 11 / 11 EuropeanStartups.co Page / 11 Present: Entrepreneurship, jobs, skills, innovation Snowball effect in is in full force in Europe. Criteo Alando Spotify Skype LoveFilm Bibit Zalando Daniel Ek Zoopla Adyen Daphni Transferwise LocalGlobe Framer GoCardless Auto1 Atomico Seedcamp Cherry Nested Northvolt Ventures Passion Capital Cazoo Monzo Starship Starling Technologies Duffel Page / 13 EuropeanStartups.co Source: Dealroom.co Does everyone now work at a startup? 10x 20M+ ~ 3.2M 10% annual growth 2M jobs Close to 10% of employment 1.5M jobs 2M jobs 1.4M jobs 2016 2020 2025 2016 2020 2025 Page / 14 EuropeanStartups.co Source: Dealroom.co Startups have become a significant … and are by far the fastest and contributor of new jobs …. most resilient growing job engine Page / 15 EuropeanStartups.co Source: based on Dealroom.co analysis of data for Netherlands and Germany. https://www.bain.com/insights/how-chinas-cloud-market-differs-from-others https://www.bain.com/insights/eight-great-trillion-dollar-growth-trends-to-2020/ Talking points USA spends more on IT More money going into tech Spending on IT as % of GDP (2018) Whole environment into tech 4.0% 3.7% Faster adoption 2.2% 2.2% 2.1% Getting corporates to innovate more 1.1% 0.8% 0.7% Darpa US UK Germany France Japan South Korea India China IT spending ($B) $830B $105B $89B $61B $104B $18B $22B $88B GDP ($B) $20T $2.8T $4T $2.7T $5.0T 1,620 2,667 13,424 Page / 16 EuropeanStartups.co Source: Bain analysis of Gartner, IDC, Economist and other data. Corporate R&D spending is dominated by Big Tech. $199B Amazon Alphabet Intel Microsoft Apple Oracle Cisco IBM Qualcomm $98B Broadcom Western Digital Medtronic Abbott Laboratories Johnson & Johnson Micron Technology Merck NVIDIA Ford VMWare Pfizer $40B $40B Salesforce General Motors Volkswagen Siemens Snap Eli Lilly and Company Roche Nokia Bristol-Myers Squibb Novartis Ericsson General Electric Daimler SAP Sanofi Philips GSK HP BMW U.S. Tech U.S. Industrial European Industrial European Tech Page / 17 EuropeanStartups.co Source: PwC, The 2018 Global Innovation 1000 study. Introduction | Research | Talent | Industry | Politics | Predictions #stateofai Google, DeepMind, Amazon, Microsoft have hired 52 tenured and tenure-track professors from Brain drain: AI professors leaving universities for Big Tech. US Universities between 2004 and 2018. Carnegie Mellon, U. Washington and Berkeley have lost 38 professors + 85 during the same period. Note that no AI professor left in 2004, whereas 41 AI professors left in 2018 alone. Google, DeepMind, Amazon, Microsoft, Uber, NVIDIA, Facebook, IBM, Apple, Intel, Netflix, Carnegie Mellon, University of Figure note: Graphs include AI professors who Washington, Berkeley, completely left academia or reported a dual Georgia, Toronto, Stanford, industry and academic affiliation Michigan, Harvard, Purdue - 97 Page / 18 EuropeanStartups.co Source: State of AI report. Wikipedia stateof.ai 2020 Future: What’s needed most in the next five years Helping the current generation of startups. Realised 80 unrealised exits unicorns 300 potential future unicorns 20-30% graduation 2,800 rate Series A+ startups Shortage of European growth capital 50K Pre-seed & Seed startups Page / 20 EuropeanStartups.co Source: Dealroom.co. European VCs have been raising record amounts of new funds. Seed Series A+ Growth stage €12.7B €12.8B €12.1B €190M $2B €463M Feb 2020 Apr 2020 Jun 2018 €9.4B €8.2B $200M $820M $477M Sep 2019 Feb 2020 Mar 2019 €6.6B €175M $735M $375M Jun 2019 Feb 2020 Mar 2018 $115M $500M €193M Jun 2019 Nov 2019 Nov 2019 €100M $400M Latitude: $180M 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 YTD Sep 2020 Nov 2019 Dec 2018 Page / 21 EuropeanStartups.co Source: Dealroom.co. But European startups need at least 3x more capital than that, already today. Additional investor groups █ New European VC funds █ Capital raised by European startups €38B USA & Asian VCs Growth & private equity €29B €28B €24B Sovereign Wealth Funds Corporates €17B €16B €12B €13B €13B €9.4B €8.2B €6.6B Family Offices / Private Wealth Crowdfunding 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 YTD Page / 22 EuropeanStartups.co Note: New funds raised are invested over different years and also some capital raised by European VC is also invested abroad. We will see much bigger companies built in the next 20 years Much bigger tech companies will be built in the coming years, needing more funding $88,000 Social Impact & Value Creation (Annual $ per capita) $36,000 Discretionary Non-Discretionary Internet Internet $6,00 0 $4,500 Higher $3,000 $36k $2,200 Private FE $7k Assets Family $1,000 Rental $900 $8k 2ndary LG5 $300 $7k Primary Early $3k Years Entertainment Apparel Energy Food Transport Health Education Housing Finance Page / 23 EuropeanStartups.co Source: LocalGlobe presentation. Europe already has institutions and programs to provide support. UK France Germany Sweden Netherlands EU Israel USA BPC/BBB Bpifrance KfW Capital Saminvest RVO (Seed Capital) EIF No No Fund of Funds £2.5B €6.5B €0.5B $0.5B €0.3B €12B BMWi Israel Innovation Small Business Bpifrance Vinnova Horizon Europe Innovate UK EXIST €78M (2019) No Authority (IIA) Administration $2.5B Grants €1.3B $0.3B (yearly) €100B ZIM €0.6B (2019) $0.5B (2019) (yearly) Bpifrance HTGF €325M Almi InvestNL EIC Accelerator SBIC (part of SBA) No No Equity co-investing €1.6B Coparion €225M $0.2B €1.7B €3.0B $5.5B yearly Bpifrance KfW Group Almi EIB SBA SBIC No No Debt co-investing €1.3B ERP Start-up Loans $0.3B €2.1B $0.7B $5.5B yearly Yes CIR Yes WBSO Yes No Yes Yes R&D tax credits £4.5B (2018) €6.2B (2019) €0.2B (2018) €1.3B (2020) $9.7B (2018) £2bn No No Yes No No No No Investor tax relief (EIS/SEIS 2019) Page / 24 EuropeanStartups.co Note: preliminary Dealroom analysis. Yeah, Deep tech is cool. But you know what’s really cool? European Deep Tech: $150B (1) Page / 25 EuropeanStartups.co Source: Dealroom.co 1. Sum of the valuations of all startups in the ecosystem founded after 2000. Yeah, Deep tech is cool. But you know what’s really cool? European Tiktok: $150B Deep Tech: $150B (1) Page / 26 EuropeanStartups.co Source: Dealroom.co 1. Sum of the valuations of all startups in the ecosystem founded after 2000. What do companies that dominate their market have in common? Search Google 90% Social Facebook 70% Online advertising Facebook + Google 70% B2B eCommerce Alibaba Rakuten 80% Video streaming Youtube + Netflix 80% Mobile operating systems Android + iOS Cloud hosting AWS + Google + Microsoft 60% Online payments Paypal, Stripe 60% Payment cards Visa, Mastercard Unionpay 80% Market share in core domains Page / 27 EuropeanStartups.co Inspired by Benedict Evans’ Jan 2020 presentation Standing on the Shoulders of Giants (data from companies and Zenith). Source for B2B: “In-depth: B2B e-Commerce 2019” by ecommercedb.com What should we really be building? Things that Deep Tech people love to use Page / 28 EuropeanStartups.co Supply first Demand first What should we really be building? Things that Deep Tech people love to use Solving our biggest challenges Page / 29 EuropeanStartups.co Yes No Attract & incentivise talent Government picking winners Late stage capital (fund-of-funds) Deep tech without commerce Penalize exits or employee ownership Page / 30 EuropeanStartups.co Appendix: additional data 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020E Main drivers behind record VC investment European venture capital seems unfazed by the pandemic.
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