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4524 Wanyeki.Pdf R Wanyeki, L. Muthoni (2018) 'African solutions for African problems' or a 'liberal peace' : the African Union (AU) and Kenya. PhD thesis. SOAS University of London. http://eprints.soas.ac.uk/26184 Copyright © and Moral Rights for this thesis are retained by the author and/or other copyright owners. A copy can be downloaded for personal non‐commercial research or study, without prior permission or charge. This thesis cannot be reproduced or quoted extensively from without first obtaining permission in writing from the copyright holder/s. The content must not be changed in any way or sold commercially in any format or medium without the formal permission of the copyright holders. When referring to this thesis, full bibliographic details including the author, title, awarding institution and date of the thesis must be given e.g. AUTHOR (year of submission) "Full thesis title", name of the School or Department, PhD Thesis, pagination. ‘African solutions for African problems’ or a ‘liberal peace’: the African Union (AU) and Kenya L. MUTHONI WANYEKI Thesis submitted for the degree of PhD 2017 Department of Politics and International Studies SOAS, University of London 1 Table of contents List of acronyms………………………………………………………………………………….5 1. Introduction………………………………………………………………………………8 1.1 The research questions…………………………………………………………………….8 1.2 The significance of the research questions………………………………………………13 1.3 The structure of the thesis………………………………………………………………..14 2. Methodology…………………………………………………………………………….17 2.1 Introduction………………………………………………………………………………17 2.2 The case study……………………………………………………………………………17 2.3 The literature review……………………………………………………………………..18 2.4 Semi-structured elite interviews…………………………………………………………20 2.5 Archival materials and research………………………………………………………….21 2.6 Methodological limitations………………………………………………………………21 3. Kenya’s political transition of 2002: background to the General Elections of 2007.23 3.1 Concepts and theory……………………………………………………………………...23 3.2 Background to and context for the political transition of 2002………………………….24 3.3 Factors enabling the political transition of 2002…………………………………………28 3.3.1 Agency………………………………………………………………………………………………28 The handling of succession within KANU…………………………………………….29 The achievement of opposition unity…………………………………………………..31 KANU’s diminished ability to instigate political violence………………………….32 3.3.2 Structure and institutions………………………………………………………………………...33 3.4 From the political transition to the lack of democratic consolidation…………………...33 3.5 Factors behind the NARC’s failure to realise its transformative potential………………37 3.5.1 Agency………………………………………………………………………………………………37 The composition of the actors, their alliances and coalitions……………………...37 The immediate: the nature of NARC itself…17………………………………………….37 The long-view: civil society and political interaction and interpenetration from the colonial period on……………………………………………………………………39 The actors’ strategic choices…………………………………………………………...42 3.5.2 Structure and institutions………………………………………………………………………...45 The players determining the playing field and rules of the game………………….45 Competing notions of citizenship, political participation and land rights………..47 3.6 The quest for accountability continued…………………………………………………..51 4. The AU mediation of the 2008 KNDR…………………………………………………53 4.1 Concepts and theory……………………………………………………………………...53 4.1.1 Electoral conflict………………………………………………………………………………….53 4.1.2 Mediation as a form of electoral conflict resolution…………………………………………56 2 4.2 International and regional norms enabling and concerning intervention through mediation as a form of electoral-conflict resolution………………………………………………...57 4.3 Kenya’s 2007-8 electoral conflict………………………………………………………..59 4.3.1 The trigger: the announcement of the supposed presidential results and swearing-in…..59 4.3.2 The proximate and structural causes: the failed political transition of 2002……………..69 4.4 Intervention through mediation in Kenya’s 2007-8 electoral conflict…………………...72 4.4.1 Achieving agreement to the mediation of Kenya’s 2007-8 electoral conflict……………..77 4.4.2 The content of the mediation of Kenya’s 2007-8 electoral conflict………………………...94 4.5 The roles played by domestic, regional and international actors in the mediation of Kenya’s 2007-8 electoral conflict………………………………………………………102 4.5.1 Domestic civil society, including the women’s movement and the private sector………103 4.5.2 The AU’s RECs under its peace and security architecture………………………………...122 4.5.3 The rest of the international community……………………………………………………...124 4.6 The outcomes and impact of the mediation of Ken131ya’s 2007-8 electoral conflict…131 4.6.1 What outcomes, what impact?.........................................................................................131 4.6.2 What enabled those outcomes, that impact?....................................................................146 4.7 A cautionary note……………………………………………………………………….150 5. From the OAU to the AU……………………………………………………………..182 5.1 Origins of and visions for regional integration…………………………………………182 5.1.1 The ideology of Pan-Africanism……………………………………………………………….182 5.1.2 The early Pan-Africanist political and economic project…………………………………..184 5.2 The OAU: 1963-2002…………………………………………………………………..189 5.2.1 Achievements……………………………………………………………………………………..189 5.2.2 Challenges………………………………………………………………………………………..190 Realist interpretations………………………………………………………………….190 Institutionalist interpretations………………………………………………………...191 Structuralist interpretations…………………………………………………………..192 5.3 Reform and transition…………………………………………………………………..194 5.3.1 The rationale for reform and transition………………………………………………………194 Political rationale………………………………………………………………………194 Institutional rationale………………………………………………………………….194 5.4 The AU: 2002-present…………………………………………………………………..195 5.5 Differences between the OAU and the AU……………………………………………..195 5.5.1 Normative provisions……………………………………………………………………………195 5.5.2 Institutional arrangements……………………………………………………………………..198 The human rights architecture………………………………………………………..199 The peace and security architecture…………………………………………………200 5.6 The potential effectiveness of the AU relative to the OAU…………………………….204 5.6.1 Addressing the political rationale……………………………………………………………..204 5.6.2 Addressing the institutional rationale………………………………………………………...206 5.7 Implications for electoral conflict resolution from the AU’s intervention in Kenya…...207 6. ‘African solutions for African problems’……………………………………………216 6.1 An African solution (or not)?...........................................................................................216 6.2 What informs the AU decision to intervene?...................................................................219 3 6.3 What makes a member state accept an AU intervention?................................................225 6.4 Objective/model of an intervention?................................................................................228 6.5 What determines success?................................................................................................233 6.6 How is success measured?...............................................................................................236 6.7 The evolving relationship with the UN and subsidiarity……………………………….239 6.8 Advantages and distinguishing characteristics of the model…………………………...243 6.9 Challenges to and critiques of the model……………………………………………….246 6.10 African solutions?............................................................................................................258 6.11 A new regression?............................................................................................................266 7. Conclusion……………………………………………………………………………..274 7.1 Conditions under which supranational institutions intervene in member states………..275 7.2 What leverage for such interventions?.............................................................................276 7.2.1 Atypical and unusual leverage: the still insufficiently acknowledged role of domestic constituencies…………………………………………………………………………………….279 7.3 A critical examination of the nature and consequences of such interventions…………282 7.4 Implications for ‘African solutions for African problems’……………………………..285 7.5 (Re-)conceptualising ‘African solutions for African problems’………………………..286 7.5.1 What informs an AU decision to intervene and how does it intervene?..........................287 7.5.2 What makes a member state accept an AU intervention?................................................288 7.5.3 Objectives of an AU intervention and measures and determinants of its ‘success’…….289 7.5.4 Advantages of and challenges to realising ‘African solutions for African problems’….292 7.5.5 Final thoughts on ‘African solutions for African problems’……………………………….294 Bibliography…………………………………………………………………………………...297 List of interviews………………………………………………………………………………305 4 List of acronyms AACC All Africa Conference of Churches ACHPR African Charter on Human and Peoples’ Rights AfDB African Development Bank AfriCOG African Centre for Open Governance ALC African Leadership Centre AMISOM African Union Mission in Somalia AP Administration Police APRM African Peer Review Mechanism APSA African Peace and Security Architecture ASBF African Stand-By Force AU African Union AUC African Union Commission AUCISS African Union Commission of Inquiry on South Sudan AUHIP African Union High Level Implementation Panel BBC British Broadcasting Corporation CAR Central African
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