Virtual volcanology GLOBALMODEL VOLCANO Professor Steve Sparks and Dr Sue Loughlin are preparing to embark on the first comprehensive global volcanic hazard and risk assessment. Here, they discuss the critical processes supporting this effort

Quaternary Large Magnitude Explosive Volcanic Eruptions (LaMEVE) database has been completed and made accessible online. GVM is developing its own initiatives through the partnership by forming three task forces to address knowledge gaps. One is developing volcanic hazard and risk indices, one is managing the global assessment of volcanic risk for the UN’s GAR15 report and another is preparing a database on volcano deformation recorded by satellite data (principally radar). GVM is also supporting the second Volcano Observatory Best Practices workshop on communication which is in the planning stage. The governance structure of GVM has been agreed with the Board and Steering Committee, the latter including representatives from all partners.

Can you briefly introduce the Global which demonstrate the successful transfer Who will be the key users of GVM? Volcano Model (GVM) project and its key of volcano science to decision making, goals? either during a crisis or for planning and SL: There are many potential users spread preparedness between eruptions. across the world. These include citizens living SS: GVM is a new international collaborative on or near volcanoes; governments; the platform to integrate information on Why is a collaborative approach so vital humanitarian aid sector and development volcanoes from the perspective of to the development of GVM? organisations interested in disaster risk forecasting, hazard assessment and risk reduction; the insurance sector; aviation; mapping. The platform includes databases, SL: The GVM network is an international national, regional and local authorities; civil such as the Global Volcanism Program, collaboration with partners and sponsors protection; international agencies such the Smithsonian Institution, WOVOdat (a across the globe, including Australia, France, UN and World Bank; businesses and critical database on precursors to volcanic eruptions Germany, Iceland, Italy, Japan, Mexico, New facilities affected or threatened by volcanic by the World Organization of Volcano Zealand, Singapore, Spain, the UK and the hazards; as well as a number of research Observatories), VHub (a US-led effort to US. Each partner offers different expertise in institutions around the world. develop an online collaborative environment developing models, methods, information and for volcanology research and risk mitigation) tools to analyse and monitor hazard risk and Looking ahead, what are the next steps in and the Volcanic Global Risk Identification impacts. GVM has been commissioned by the building the network? and Analysis Project (VOGRIPA). UN Office for Disaster Risk Reduction to carry out an assessment of global volcanic hazard SS: Looking beyond the current work, the In addition, the platform aims to provide and risk for its 2015 report (GAR15) and will next stages are to give GVM much more tools for forecasting, assessment deliver the first comprehensive assessment visibility in the community and create a sense of hazard and risk, and dealing with of global volcanism from such a perspective. of community ownership, which are both complications associated with volcano This has never been done before and will very challenging goals. GVM is not yet widely information at global, regional and provide a benchmark assessment of the state known in the community, except in a rather local scales. A major goal of GVM is of knowledge on volcanoes in relation to their vague way, and we will work hard to engage the translation of volcano science into hazards and risks. interested parties worldwide in the coming forms that are useful and accessible to months and years and hopefully develop a wide the public, researchers, decision makers, To date, what progress has been made sense of ownership. A science goal is to develop governments, international agencies, towards these goals? ensemble numerical global volcano models, NGOs and commerce. To achieve this, which can be used to characterise global GVM will build upon and take advantage SS: We now have 19 partners, including volcanism in a framework to look at past and of the volcanology community’s growing many major volcanological research centres, future volcanism based on available evidence online collaborative infrastructure at www. three insurance sector partners and other and understanding. This goal is achievable but vhub.org. This presents an opportunity for international organisations, notably WOVO, will likely involve several years of work, major interested parties to provide contributions which has 80 Observatory members. The resources and coordination within GVM.

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Under the flagship of the Global Volcano Model, a truly international effort has been mobilised to improve the capacity of communities to understand volcanoes, anticipate eruptions and better manage their threats

VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS CAN have far-reaching was a sense that volcanology would be more by the Smithsonian’s Global Volcanism and devastating impacts on people, economies effective in applying its science to the benefit of Program and over 1,800 explosive eruption and the climate. In the short term, effects include society if it presented a united front”. As such, records spanning the last 1.8 million years. The loss of lives, and the destruction of livelihoods there is a strong international consensus that database – accessible online at www.bgs.ac.uk/ and lifeline infrastructure. Over the longer term, GVM is an essential and timely undertaking. vogripa – primarily consists of data on eruption disease, famine, displacement of populations, magnitude, age and source volcano location. disruption of clean water supplies and physical The datasets were collected from published ACCESSIBLE GLOBAL destruction of key economic facilities can all literature; principally Volcanoes of the World INFORMATION PLATFORM have lasting impacts on communities. by Siebert et al. (2010) and journal articles, Formed in 2011, GVM works principally but also other online databases, books, public Global efforts are underway to identify and through holding workshops and secondments reports and conference proceedings. LaMEVE better manage the risks resulting from the of staff and students, supplemented by virtual represents a major resource for identifying and complex interactions of volcanic eruptions with meetings and online collaboration via vhub.org. evaluating past explosive eruptions on local, the environment and society. In order to draw Task forces on key topics with clearly defined national and regional scales. together and assimilate much of this work, a deliverables are an important component of global partnership and network of institutions GVM. These activities allow partners to work INTERFACING WITH known as the Global Volcano Model (GVM) is closely together to develop the data and INTERNATIONAL INITIATIVES generating key information about volcanoes, methodologies of analysis, write papers where their hazards and their impacts. The driving goal novel research results emerge, and develop the GVM is closely linked with the International of the work is to improve understanding of past outreach side of the project. The network has Association of Volcanology and Chemistry of volcanic activity and anticipate future risk. now expanded to comprise 19 institutions and the Earth’s Interior (IAVCEI, see p80) – the only organisations representing many of the world’s international organisation of volcanologists. Professor Steve Sparks from the Department centres of research excellence in volcanology as IAVCEI Commissions include the World of Earth Sciences at the University of Bristol well as organisations from the insurance sector. Organization of Volcano Observatories (WOVO) explains that the project arose from the and Cities on Volcanoes, which holds a major recognition that, although the international The LaMEVE database is a good illustration meeting every two years to bring scientists volcanological community is very active, key of the data-gathering efforts that have been and public officials responsible for emergency knowledge gaps exist and efforts in the field developed to feed into GVM. This contains the management together. need better coordination and integration: “There nearly 3,000 Quaternary volcanoes catalogued GVM activities are aimed at complementing rather than duplicating the activities of these key organisations. It supports and interfaces with major international initiatives:

• Global Volcanism Program (GVP) – housed in the Department of Mineral Sciences – part of the National Museum of Natural History – in Washington DC, GVP is a visionary geoinformatics endeavour coordinated by the Smithsonian Institution. In operation since 1968, it uniquely and comprehensively documents the eruptive histories of Holocene volcanoes (over the last 10,000 years). The overall mission of GVP is to

78 INTERNATIONAL INNOVATION understand global patterns of volcanism in models and datasets to create an integrated INTELLIGENCE space and time family of dynamic and hazards models that can forecast risks on multiple spatial- and GLOBAL • WOVOdat – this is a collective record of timescales,” observes Sparks. “Impact models volcano monitoring worldwide presently require knowledge of vulnerabilities of VOLCANO MODEL hosted at the Earth Observatory of Singapore. people, infrastructures and assets along with OBJECTIVES It will have many uses for both crisis response uncertainties, as well as how these attributes and research. The principal goal of WOVOdat, of society might interact under the stress of To provide systematic evidence, data and as contrasted with databases at individual eruptions and the quantification of risks.” It is analysis of volcanic hazards and risk on global, observatories, is to enable swift comparisons hoped that all of this work will help to improve regional and local scales, and to develop the of unrest at various volcanoes, rapid searches the assessments of what kind of unrest is likely capability to anticipate future volcanism and for particular patterns of disturbance, and to lead to future high-risk eruptions. its consequences. other operations on data from many volcanoes PARTNERS and episodes of unrest A SUCCESSFUL START University of Bristol, UK • British • VHub – the online resource for collaboration The first GVM Steering Group and Management Geological Survey (BGS), NERC, UK • in volcanology research and risk mitigation Meeting took place on 30 April and 1 May The Earth Observatory of Singapore provides easy mechanisms for: sharing tools to 2012 at the British Geological Survey offices in • European Plate Observing System • model volcanic processes and analyse volcano Edinburgh. The meeting provided an excellent GeoScience Australia • Geophysical data; sharing resources such as teaching opportunity for networking, information sharing Institute University of Alaska at Fairbanks materials and workshops; and communicating and brain-storming. Moreover, the first project • GNS Science, New Zealand • International with other members of the volcanology meeting and subsequent workshop achieved Association of Volcanology and Chemistry community and members of the educational agreement on database content, database of the Earth’s Interior • INGV, Italy • and stakeholder communities architecture, standards, protocols, definitions, IVHHN, Durham University, UK • The methodologies and, crucially, division of labour Geological Survey of Japan • NGI, Norway • The Volcano Global Risk Identification and between the partners. • Risk Management Solutions • Seismic Analysis Project (VOGRIPA) – the project Research Centre, The University of the West aims to create a global database of volcanic Indies • The Smithsonian Institution, UK • activity, hazards and vulnerability information The State University of New York, USA • that can be analysed to identify locations The Global Volcano Model is The Universidad Nacional Autónoma de at high risk from volcanism and gaps in México • University of Iceland • University knowledge about hazards and risk generating key information about of South Florida, USA • U.S. Geological Survey • Willis and Munich • WOVO There are several current activities and volcanoes, their hazards and their FUNDING initiatives within GVM. Task forces include impacts. The driving goal of the efforts to develop standardised indices of Natural Environment Research Council, UK volcanic hazard and risk, activities to coordinate work is to improve understanding a synthesis for global volcanic risk for the United CONTACT Nations International Strategy for Disaster of past volcanic activity and Professor Steve Sparks Reduction within the GVM partnership, a task force to develop a database on deformation of anticipate future risk School of Earth Sciences volcanoes as recorded by satellites, and one Wills Memorial Building, University of Bristol to start developing stochastic models of ash The next major meeting is the IAVCEI General Queen’s Road, Bristol, BS8 1RJ, UK hazard. A Volcano Observatory Best Practices Assembly in Kagoshima July 2013. As well as T +44 117 954 5419 workshop is being planned on the topic of welcoming presentations on all aspects of the E [email protected] communication and will support observatory GVM initiatives, IAVCEI are also particularly scientists from around the world to gather keen to invite contributions demonstrating www.globalvolcanomodel.org together and share knowledge and experience successful transfer of volcano science to on this critical topic. The VOGRIPA project is decision making either during a crisis or for STEVE SPARKS is Professor of Geology currently developing new databases on debris planning and preparedness between eruptions. in the School of Earth Sciences at Bristol avalanches and lahars (volcanic mudflows). University and a senior researcher in one Ultimately, the efforts of this novel international of the world’s leading research groups in collaboration represent a significant leap in MODEL BEHAVIOUR volcanology. His research concerns volcanic development of information on volcanoes and and igneous processes. One of the eventual goals of GVM is a complex their hazards. It is hoped that new international system ensemble model. Parameters typically metadata standards can be developed to help SUE LOUGHLIN is Head of Volcanology at have wide ranges and their uncertainties can minimise the current uncertainty found in the use the British Geological Survey in Edinburgh, UK be large. The researchers envisage several of global volcanic datasets. Moreover, a plethora and leads a team with diverse skills dedicated linked and hierarchical models, each with of potential end-users will benefit from the to volcano research and monitoring who different objectives that explore a range of GVM research activities and utilise the scientific collaborate widely to help build resilience to behaviours and impacts, and how certain evidence as a basis for mitigation planning and volcanic eruptions. She worked for several systems might respond to an eruption: “There developing risk management strategies in a wide years at Montserrat Volcano Observatory and is a need for interoperability between different range of sectors and industries. was Director from 2004-06.

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