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Chiltern and South Bucks Local Plan

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Chiltern and South Bucks Local Plan Chiltern and South Bucks Local Plan Buckinghamshire County Council Phase 3B Modelling Report BRJ10103\FMRP3B | 3 8 June 2018 Phas e 3B Modelling R eport Bucki nghamshire C ounty C ouncil Phase 3B Modelling Report Chiltern and South Bucks Local Plan Project No: BRJ10103 Document Title: Phase 3B Modelling Report Document No.: BRJ10103\FMRP3B Revision: Final Date: 8 June 2018 Client Name: Buckinghamshire County Council Client No: C&SBLP\FMRP3B Project Manager: Tom Withey Author: Catherine Hill File Name: M:\Transport Modelling\B12798E1 Bucks Local Plans\Technical Work\3. Transport Planning\Phase 3\Report\Chiltern and South Bucks Local Plan Modelling Support Phase_3b_Final_080618.docx Jacobs U.K. Limited 1180 Eskdale Road Winnersh, Wokingham Reading RG41 5TU United Kingdom T +44 (0)118 946 7000 F +44 (0)118 946 7001 www.jacobs.com © Copyright 2018 Jacobs U.K. Limited. The concepts and information contained in this document are the property of Jacobs. Use or copying of this document in whole or in part without the written permission of Jacobs constitutes an infringement of copyright. Limitation: This document has been prepared on behalf of, and for the exclusive use of Jacobs’ client, and is subject to, and issued in accordance with, the provisions of the contract between Jacobs and the client. Jacobs accepts no liability or responsibility whatsoever for, or in respect of, any use of, or reliance upon, this document by any third party. Document history and status Revision Date Description By Review Approved 0 21/03/18 First Draft CH TW TW 1 01/05/18 Second draft following client comment CH TW TW 2 03/05/18 Third draft following client comment CH TW TW 3 08/06/18 Fourth draft following client comment CH TW TW BRJ10103\FMRP3B i Phase 3B Modelling Report Contents 1. Introduction ....................................................................................................................................... 1 1.1 Background ........................................................................................................................................ 1 1.2 Scope of study .................................................................................................................................... 1 1.3 Development scenarios ...................................................................................................................... 2 1.4 Mitigation options ................................................................................................................................ 2 1.5 Structure of report ............................................................................................................................... 2 2. Modelling methodology ................................................................................................................... 4 2.1 Overview ............................................................................................................................................. 4 2.2 Forecast model updates ..................................................................................................................... 4 2.2.1 M25 smart motorway scheme (Junction 10 to 16) ............................................................................. 4 2.2.2 Site access points ............................................................................................................................... 4 2.2.3 Development of the DM forecast scenario ......................................................................................... 4 2.2.4 Development of the DS forecast scenario .......................................................................................... 4 2.2.5 Adjustment for Crossrail ..................................................................................................................... 5 2.3 Modelling the mitigation options ......................................................................................................... 5 2.3.1 Highway schemes .............................................................................................................................. 5 3. Development scenarios ................................................................................................................... 6 3.1 Overview ............................................................................................................................................. 6 3.2 Development summary....................................................................................................................... 6 3.2.1 Do Minimum ..................................................................................................................................... 10 3.2.2 Do Something ................................................................................................................................... 10 3.2.3 Comparison with National Trip End Model (NTEM) ......................................................................... 10 4. Mitigation options ........................................................................................................................... 12 4.1 Overview ........................................................................................................................................... 12 4.2 Option generation ............................................................................................................................. 12 4.3 Option sifting ..................................................................................................................................... 12 4.4 Options for appraisal ........................................................................................................................ 12 5. Results ............................................................................................................................................. 16 5.1 Overview ........................................................................................................................................... 16 5.1.1 Congestion ratio ............................................................................................................................... 16 5.1.2 Change in travel time ........................................................................................................................ 16 5.1.3 Development select link plots ........................................................................................................... 17 5.2 Summary of Impacts ......................................................................................................................... 17 5.2.1 Great Missenden .............................................................................................................................. 17 5.2.2 Prestwood ......................................................................................................................................... 17 5.2.3 Chesham .......................................................................................................................................... 17 5.2.4 Amersham ........................................................................................................................................ 21 5.2.5 Little Chalfont .................................................................................................................................... 25 5.2.6 Holmer Green (and the Hazelmere Crossroads) ............................................................................. 27 5.2.7 Chalfont St Giles ............................................................................................................................... 29 5.2.8 Chalfont St Peter .............................................................................................................................. 29 BRJ10103\FMRP3B ii Phase 3B Modelling Report 5.2.9 Beaconsfield ..................................................................................................................................... 31 5.2.10 Gerrards Cross ................................................................................................................................. 34 5.2.11 Denham area (including the Denham Roundabout) ......................................................................... 34 5.2.12 Iver and Iver Heath ........................................................................................................................... 37 5.2.13 Middle Green .................................................................................................................................... 41 5.2.14 Stoke Poges ..................................................................................................................................... 41 5.2.15 Farnham Common and Farnham Royal ........................................................................................... 41 5.2.16 Burnham ........................................................................................................................................... 42 5.2.17 Taplow .............................................................................................................................................. 45 6. Summary and conclusion .............................................................................................................. 46 6.1 Summary of results ..........................................................................................................................
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