Maywood Retail Market Analysis DRAFT

Introduction The Village of Maywood reached out to the Chicago Metropolitan Agency for Planning (CMAP) for assistance in analyzing retail market potential. This report identifies Maywood’s trade area and estimates the trade area’s retail demand, supply, and leakage. Additionally, it presents conceptual, preliminary land use recommendations for the type and location of future retail and multi-family developments within Maywood. Market analysis numbers presented in this analysis should not be interpreted as absolute numbers but rather viewed as estimates that reveal market conditions, trends, and dynamics.

This document is intended to be used as background material for the preparation of the Maywood comprehensive plan. It is not intended to be used as a stand-alone document.

The Trade Area Traditionally defined, the trade area is a geography from which approximately 70 to 80% of the area businesses’ sales originate. This analysis identifies the trade area as a fifteen-minute drive time delineation from a major intersection within the community. The trade area, which is illustrated in Map 1, extends a little less than 125 square miles. It encompasses some municipalities in their entirety such as Melrose Park, River Grove, and Westchester, and partially covers other municipalities such as Hinsdsale, Elmhurst, and Oak Brook.

Commercial use accounts for roughly 10% of the trade area’s total land use. As shown on Map 2, much of the commercial uses are dispersed throughout the trade area with a concentration of commercial along Interstate 88 near Oak Brook, Downers Grove and along Interstate 290 near Elmhurst.

The trade area has between 4,600 - 6,000 individual retail establishments as illustrated on Map 3. Over 40% of these retail establishments are eating and drinking establishments, which is not surprising given the significant presence of such establishments within the retail markets nationwide. The remaining establishments are a diverse spread of traditional retail stores including electronic stores, health and personal care stores, food and beverage stores, and other retailers.

Some of the trade area’s retail establishments are clustered together and form major shopping centers. As defined by ESRI, a major shopping center has a gross leasable area (GLA) greater than 225,000 square feet and can include larger community retail centers, regional centers, or super regional centers and lifestyle centers. 1 The trade area has approximately 19 shopping centers, most of which have GLA between 325,000 and 650,000 square feet and the median GLA is 450,000 square feet. The table below shows the five largest shopping centers within the trade area, including the top three centers that have GLA’s of over one million square feet. All major shopping centers in the trade area are listed along in Appendix A.

Table 1. Top Five Major Shopping Centers in Trade Area

Name Location Gross Number of Anchors Leasable Stores Area (GLA) Oakbrook Shopping Route 83 and Cermak 2,018,000 160 Macy's, Sears, Nordstrom, Neiman Center Road, Oak Brook Marcus Yorktown Shopping Butterfield Road and 1,650,000 180 JCPenney, Von Maur, Carson Pirie Center Highland Avenue, Lombard Scott, Target North Riverside Park Cermak Road and Harlem 1,111,322 150 JCPenney, Sears, Carson Pirie Scott, Mall Avenue, North Riverside Conway Stores Broadview Square NEC 17th Avenue and 720,970 36 SuperTarget, Home Depot, LA Fitness, Cermak Road, Broadview The Sports Authority Harlem Irving Plaza Harlem Avenue and Irving 700,000 140 Carson Pirie Scott, Target, Kohl's, Best Park Road, Chicago Buy Source: ESRI Business Analyst and CMAP.

Maywood Maywood has approximately 90 to 120 retail establishments, none of which are part of a major shopping center. Retail within this community is approximately half retail stores while the other half is food service establishments. Most of the retail businesses occupy smaller retail spaces, as approximately 95% of the establishments occupy less than 10,000 square feet and around 50% occupy spaces less than 2,500 square feet. As shown on Map 4, most of the retail spaces are along Lake Street, St. Charles Road, Madison Street, Roosevelt Road, First Avenue, and 5th Avenue.

Lake Street and Roosevelt Road are fairly well-traveled arterials and key commercial corridors for the trade area. General retail such as fast-food and casual dining establishments, auto- oriented stores, food stores, furniture stores, pharmacies, and other retailers align these two corridors and cater to the trade area market. The median sales volume is approximately 80% higher than other corridors within the community’s boundary.

Most retail along Madison Street, First Avenue, 5th Avenue, and St. Charles within Maywood’s boundaries are considered neighborhood retail. Many of the businesses include local casual eateries and convenient stores which serve the residents within the immediate area.

The commercial development within Maywood is in fair to poor condition. Much of the commercial development displays prominent signs of disinvestment including buildings in disrepair, little landscaping, and deteriorating facades. Estimates show that the equalized

1 http://www.esri.com/data/esri_data/business-overview/shopping assessed value of the commercial properties has decreased by approximately 37% between 2000 and 2009.

Trade Area Demand, Supply, and Leakage

Demand Demand, or total potential retail expenditure, is the amount of dollars a household or a group of households will typically spend on retail goods and services annually. This calculation is derived from a trade area’s population, number of households, household income, and retail expenditures and is shown in the tables below.

Tables 2 and 3 also provide demographic information for Maywood to illustrate the community’s position within the trade area. As shown below, Maywood’s purchasing power is comparatively less than the rest of the trade area. The community’s household incomes are slightly lower than the trade area as illustrated by contrasting the median household income and distribution of household incomes of both geographies. More significant however, is Maywood’s average household size of 3.24 persons per household which is 12% higher than the trade area’s household size of 2.90.

Maywood’s slightly lower household income and higher average household size play an important factor in residents’ disposable income. Compared to trade area households, Maywood’s disposable income base is smaller and spread more thinly across more people. The income per capita metric shown on Table 3, quantitatively illustrates this dynamic. Compared to the trade area, which has an income per capita of $24,140, Maywood’s income per capita is 37% less at $17,657. As shown on Map 5, Maywood’s income per capita is one of the lowest within the trade area.

Table 2. Population and Households, 2010

Maywood Trade Area Chicago Region Population 24,090 867,609 8,431,386 Households 7,407 298,822 3,088,156 Avg. Household Size 3.24 2.90 2.73 Source: 2010 Census and ESRI Business Analyst.

Table 3. Household Income, 2011

Maywood Trade Area Count Percent Count Percent Less than $25,000 2,099 29% 79,209 27% $25,000 to $49,999 1,931 27% 73,034 25% $50,000 to $74,999 1,287 18% 53,809 18% $75,000 to $99,999 942 13% 35,189 12% $100,000 to $149,000 645 9% 32,860 11% 150,000 and over 345 5% 23,302 8% Total Households 7,249 100% 297,403 100% Median Household Income $43,171 $48,322 Income Per Capita $17,657 $24,140 Sources: 2010 Census, ESRI Business Analyst.

Retail Expenditures. The trade area’s expenditures were estimated using consumer spending patterns reported by ESRI Business Analyst and the Consumer Expenditure Survey which is developed annually by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Household income has a great impact on the amount and type of retail expenditure. For example, lower-income households typically spend less on retail goods and services than higher-income households, but may spend a greater proportion of their retail dollars on food and beverages than higher-income households.

Given the trade area’s population, number of households, household income, and retail expenditure estimates, the total retail demand of the trade area is estimated to be approximately $6.6 billion dollars as shown on Table 4. In other words, households in the trade area cumulatively spend $6.6 billion dollars on retail goods in a given year. Significant dollars are spent on lower-priced, commonly consumed goods such as food and beverage at stores, as well as at eating and drinking establishments. Other significant dollars are spent on higher-priced, less frequently consumed goods such as motor vehicle and parts.

Table 4. Consumer Retail Goods and Services Expenditures in Trade Area

Demand Category (Total Supply Expenditure) (Total Sales) Leakage

Goods Motor Vehicle and Parts Dealers $1,327,000,000 $1,080,960,000 $246,040,000 Furniture and Home Furnishings Stores $189,750,000 $222,010,000 ($32,260,000) Electronics and Appliance Stores $174,580,000 $223,420,000 ($48,840,000) Building Materials, Garden Equipment and Supply Stores $233,920,000 $236,380,000 ($2,460,000) Food and Beverage Stores $1,236,340,000 $1,294,730,000 ($58,390,000) Health and Personal Care Stores* $221,740,000 $255,390,000 ($33,650,000) Gasoline Stations $892,840,000 $743,120,000 $149,720,000 Clothing and Clothing Accessories Stores $310,410,000 $425,290,000 ($114,880,000) Sporting Goods, Hobby, Book and Music Stores $73,220,000 $81,990,000 ($8,770,000) General Merchandise Stores** $770,760,000 $818,250,000 ($47,490,000) Miscellaneous Store Retailers*** $103,750,000 $124,930,000 ($21,180,000)

Dining Food Services and Drinking Places $1,071,790,000 $1,569,580,000 ($497,790,000)

Total**** $6,606,100,000 $7,076,050,000 ($469,950,000) *Health and Personal Care stores include drugstores, pharmacies, and beauty supply stores. **General Merchandise Stores include department stores and discount department stores. ***Miscellaneous Retailers includes florists, pet stores, and office supply stores. ****Non-traditional retail such as e-commerce was omitted from this analysis.

Source: 2010 Census and ESRI Business Analyst, Consumer Expenditure Survey 2010, 2006-2010 ACS, Dollars and Cents of Shopping Centers, Emerging Trends in Real Estate 2012, RetailSails 2011 Chain Store Productivity Report, and CMAP.

Supply The volume of retail sales within the trade area is considered the supply. Sales or supply for the trade area’s retail businesses was estimated through an analysis of various retail data sources such as ESRI Business Analyst, Urban Land Institute’s Dollars and Cents of Shopping Centers, RetailSails data, and other retail and data reports.

The total supply or sales volume of retail goods is approximately $7.1 billion. Food services and drinking places have the largest sales volume of $1.6 billion, followed by food and beverage stores with $1.3 billion, motor vehicle parts dealers with $1.1 billion.

Leakage A trade area’s leakage is determined by calculating the difference between the demand (total expenditure potential) and supply (trade area sales volume). A positive leakage number indicates that demand is not being met by the local supply, and is commonly referred to as sales leakage. In this scenario, the leakage number represents the amount of retail dollars that are leaving the trade area and being spent elsewhere.

A negative leakage number, often termed a sales surplus indicates that the trade area is capturing dollars from outside the trade area and/or that the supply is exceeding demand and the market is oversaturated. The subject trade area is currently experiencing a sales surplus of $470 million. Given the high number of major shopping centers, it is likely that the sales surplus is a result of major shopping centers capturing non-trade area shoppers. It should be noted that a sales surplus doesn’t necessarily imply that the additional businesses can’t be supported, but does indicate that any additional businesses established should have a full understanding of market dynamics and competition within the trade area and the larger sub-region.

Analysis, Implications and Recommendations for Future Land Use and Development The trade area’s sales surplus has important implications for Maywood’s retail development plans and strategies. The trade area’s surplus and the numerous shopping centers constrain any recommendations for large retail shopping centers within the Village. However retail options do exist for Maywood and should be implemented. The retail and land use recommendations below recognize the market’s constraints and aim to strategically develop retail within the Village. They are also illustrated on Map 6.

The recommendations include:

Redevelop general retail along major commercial corridors. As described above, Lake Street and Roosevelt Road are major commercial corridors that serve larger markets. As these are important and well-travelled corridors they should continue to serve larger markets. Currently many of these retail establishments are in poor condition. However anticipated public and private projects along these corridors will continue to enhance the corridors’ value as major gateways to medical facilities and shopping centers and will ultimately spur redevelopment over time.

Cluster neighborhood retail around commercial nodes. Maywood’s retail space along Madison, First Avenue, 5th Avenue, and St. Charles should be relocated and consolidated to key commercial nodes for optimal accessibility and visibility. These nodes, which include the station area node, and First Avenue and Madison Street, and Madison Street and 5th Avenue, are illustrated on Map 6.

The proposed commercial nodes should offer neighborhood retail targeted towards Maywood’s residents and workers. Much of the retail in Maywood should continue to target its local market by offering neighborhood retail goods and services at lower-cost retail establishments. Such retail includes quality convenient food stores, pharmacies, as well as coffee and sandwich stores. Resale stores offering apparel, children-oriented-apparel and toys, and/or sporting goods would also likely be a good fit for the area.

The station area and First Avenue and Madison Street commercial nodes are identified as high priorities. The station area node extends along 5th Avenue from Lake Street to St Charles Road. The Maywood Train Station, Maywood Park, and other civic and cultural facilities such as the public library and the West Town Museum of Cultural History, and recreation center within and nearby the station area node create a good nexus of destinations that can benefit retail establishments. The neighborhood retail in this area should be incorporated into two-story mixed-used and commercial developments along 5th Avenue as proposed by the 2013 West Cook County Housing Collaborative Transit-Oriented-Development (TOD) Recommendations, the 2008 Village of Maywood Comprehensive Plan, and the 2004 Maywood Station Area Plan.

The other high priority commercial node is First Avenue and Madison Street. This commercial node is strategically located to draw upon the heavy traffic along Madison Street as well as residents in central and southern areas of the Village. This node should also attract traffic from nearby destinations such as Proviso East High School, Village Hall, Cook County facilities, as well as the Illinois Prairie Path bike trail which is the beginning of the Grand Illinois Trail, a popular bicycle tour of almost 300 miles. Eating and drinking establishments and convenient stores catering to students, bicyclists, and Village Hall workers and visitors should be an integral part of the neighborhood retail in this area. These establishments with other neighborhood retail should be should be located in pedestrian-orientated one-story commercial development.

Madison Street and 5th Avenue is a lower-priority commercial node. Once retail is consolidated at the other two proposed commercial nodes, focus can then be centered on developing this commercial node. Currently, the retail development within this area is older and in need of façade improvements or redevelopment. Retail within this node should be established within mixed-use and one-story retail establishments as recommended in the 2008 Comprehensive Plan. Neighborhood retail establishments located in this area can draw on traffic along Madison Street and 5th Avenue as well as nearby destinations such as the Proviso Leyden Council for Community Action (PLCCA), Inc. headquarters. The PLCCA, Inc. is a nonprofit that provides low-income services to over 35 communities.

Develop Multi-Family Residential in Vacated Retail Uses Consolidating retail within these three main nodes may vacate the retail uses near St. Charles Road and Broadway/19th Avenue as well as along Madison Street between 9th Avenue and 17th Avenue. These sites can be redeveloped into multi-family developments. The Homes for a Changing region report which utilizes growth, population, and demographic patterns and projections to estimate future housing demands, projected that by 2040 there will be demand for 1,700 new multi-family units in Maywood. The accessibility of these sites, especially the St. Charles Road and Broadway/19th Avenue site near the Melrose Park Metra Station, are ideal for the multi-family infill development.

Appendix A

Major Shopping Centers in the Trade Area

Gross Leasable Number Name Location Anchors Area (GLA) of Stores

Oakbrook Shopping Illinois Route 83 and Cermak Macy's, Sears, Nordstrom, Neiman 2,018,000 160 Center Road (22nd), Oak Brook Marcus Yorktown Shopping Butterfield Road and Highland JCPenney, Von Maur, Carson Pirie 1,650,000 180 Center Avenue, Lombard Scott, Target North Riverside Park Cermak Road and Harlem JCPenney, Sears, Carson Pirie Scott, 1,111,322 150 Mall Avenue, North Riverside Conway NEC 17th Avenue and Cermak SuperTarget, Home Depot, LA Broadview Square 720,970 36 Road (22nd), Broadview Fitness, The Sports Authority Harlem Avenue and Irving Park Carson Pirie Scott, Target, Kohl's, Harlem Irving Plaza 700,000 140 Road, Chicago Best Buy Rosemont Bryn Mawr, River Road and I- Entertainment 600,000 5 Muvico Rosemont Walk 22 294, Rosemont Center Fashion Outlets of I-294 at Balmoral Avenue, 560,900 120 opening 8/2013 Chicago Rosemont N. Narragansett and W. Target, Lowe's, Jewel-Osco, The Brickyard 520,369 49 Diversey Avenue, Chicago Marshalls NWQ I-290 and 25th Avenue Bellwood Station 457,080 15 SuperTarget, Michaels, Staples (Exit 18-B), Bellwood Lake Street and Harlem Downtown Oak Park 450,000 125 Pier 1 Imports, Trader Joe's Avenue, Oak Park Forest Park Village Roosevelt Road at Des Plaines 406,928 10 Kmart Center Avenue, Forest Park SWC North Avenue and 9th Meijer, LA Fitness, Best Buy, Winston Plaza 397,138 40 Avenue, Melrose Park Marshall's Eisenhower Expressway (I-290 West Point Center 350,000 15 Menards and Wolf Road), Hillside Harlem Avenue, Irving Park Norridge Commons Road and Forest Preserve 331,914 28 Kmart, Michaels, hhgregg Drive, Norridge NEC Mannheim Road and Planet Fitness, Burlington Coat Melrose Crossing 317,573 31 North Avenue, Melrose Park Factory, Continental Furniture Cermak and Harlem Roads, Marshall's, K&G Fashion Superstore, Cermak Plaza 300,000 27 Berwyn Office Depot, Walgreens Hawthorne Works SEC Cermack Road and Cicero AMC Theatres, Cermak Produce, 289,333 39 Shopping Center Avenue, Cicero Famsa, Conway Villa Oaks Shopping NWC Roosevelt Road and 288,682 30 Burlington Coat Factory, LA Fitness Center Ardmore Avenue, Villa Park Bricktown Square NWC Fullerton and Babies R Us, The Sports Authority, 277,489 25 Shopping Center Narragansett Avenues, Chicago Xsport Fitness Source: ESRI Business Analyst.

Palatine South Barrington Wilmette Arlington Glenview Heights Village of Maywood Mount Hoffman Rolling Golf Meadows Prospect TraEdes tAatresa

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Wood Dale Schiller Norridge Cook County Park Bloomingdale ¨¦§290 Bensenville

Franklin ¨¦§94 Park Addison River ¨¦§90 Carol Glendale Grove Stream Heights Elmwood Northlake Park Melrose 294 Chicago Elmhurst ¨¦§ Park River Forest DuPage County Berkeley Oak Park Bellwood Winfield Villa Maywood Hillside Park 290 Glen Lombard ¨¦§ Wheaton Forest Ellyn Park Broadview Westchester 355 ¨¦§ Oak North Riverside Cicero Brook Berwyn ¨¦§94 Brookfield Riverside La Grange ¨¦§90 Park ¨¦§88 Stickney Western Lyons Forest Springs 55 Downers La Grange View ¨¦§ Warrenville Grove Clarendon Hinsdale McCook Lisle Hills Summit Westmont Indian Hodgkins Naperville Head Willowbrook Park Woodridge Burr Countryside Bedford ¨¦§90 Ridge Park ¨¦§94

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Source: Chicago Metropolitan Agency for Planning, 2013. Evanston Skokie Schaumburg Des Niles Plaines Park Elk Grove Ridge Lincolnwood Village ¨¦§94 ¨¦§90 Roselle Rosemont O'Hare §190 Itasca International ¨¦ Airport Wood Cook County Dale Schiller Norridge Chicago Bloomingdale Park Bensenville ¨¦§290 Franklin Park Addison River Elmwood ¨¦§90 Grove Park Glendale Heights ¨¦§94 Northlake DuPage County Melrose Park River Elmhurst Forest Berkeley Oak Park Bellwood Villa Park Maywood 294 290 Glen Lombard ¨¦§ Hillside Forest ¨¦§ Ellyn Park Wheaton Broadview Westchester Oak North Riverside 355 Cicero ¨¦§ Brook Berwyn ¨¦§88 ¨¦§94 La Grange Riverside ¨¦§90 Park Brookfield Western Stickney Springs Lyons La Grange Forest Land Use Patterns View Single Family Residential Clarendon Downers Hinsdale McCook Hills ¨¦§55 Multi Family Residential Lisle Grove Commercial Summit Institutional Westmont Industrial Indian Hodgkins Transportation/Communication/Utilities Head Village of Maywood Willowbrook Park Agriculture Countryside Trade Area Bedford Open Space ¨¦§90 County Boundary Darien Park Vacant I ¨¦§94 Woodridge Burr Water Justice Bridgeview Miles Ridge 0 1.25 2.5 5 Burbank Willow Springs

Source: Chicago Metropolitan Agency for Planning, 2013. Des Niles Lincolnwood Elk Grove Plaines Park Village Ridge O'Hare Rosemont International Fashion Rosemont 90 Airport ¨¦§ ¨¦§94 ¨¦§190 Outlets Entertainment Itasca of Chicago Center

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Source: Chicago Metropolitan Agency for Planning, 2013. Palatine South Barrington Wilmette Arlington Glenview Heights Household Income Per Capita Mount Hoffman Rolling Golf Meadows Prospect 2011 by MEusntaitceispality $ 13,539 - 20,000 Morton Evanston Grove Streamwood$ 20,001 - 30,000 Des Skokie Plaines $ 30,001 - 40,000 Niles 90 ¨¦§ 94 $ 40,001 - 5S0c,0h0a0umburg ¨¦§ Park $ 50,001 - 60,000 Ridge Lincolnwood Village of Maywood Elk Grove Hanover Village Park Trade Area O'Hare Unincorporated Areas Rosemont Bartlett Roselle International Forest Preserve Airport 190 Itasca ¨¦§

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! BATA R AN D BATAAN DR !

R s

TRUE VINE LEXINGTON ! e

! ! n

i CHRISTIAN ELEM SCHOOL !

! la E !

! ACADEMY

! !

LEXINGTON ST n A n s

! e ! H !

T D

Fo! rest

! "

E E

! n

! Park

E E

A 6

E E

V E

V V

A V S

A A

H H

N H

A R

7 !

T T

3 T

4 5

2 9

1 1

T 1

S S

MORE ST S

FILL S

S 2

! S

! !

Broadview ! !

! !

! ! ÆP !

! Roosevelt Rd

E E E !

V V V

A A

H H

! H

T T

T ! T

1 3

2 ! 0

1 1

1 !

S S

! ! S

! ! ! ! !

! !

! ! ! ! Development & Retail Recommendations Regional Greenways and Trails

! ! ! ! General Retail !

! Village Hall Major Commercial Corridor Existing ñ !

! !

! ! Local Commercial Node - Neighborhood Retail (High Priority) ! ! ! ! Planned School ! I ! a Police Station n

c ! !

Local Commercial Node - Neighborhood Retail (Low Priority) ! ! Miles ! ! I2 Metra Station Æc Library 0 0.125 0.25 0.5 ! ! Multi-Family Residential Infill

! !

Source: Chicago Metropolitan Agency for Planning, 2013. ! !

! !

! ! ! !