CBOS NOVEMBER '99 ISSN 1233 - 7250 WAS IT WORTHWHILE? IN THIS ISSUE: - THE POLES, CZECHS AND HUNGARIANS ON THE CHANGES OF THE LAST DECADE Ø WAS IT WORTHWHILE? We recently celebrated the tenth anniversary of the collapse of the Berlin Wall, which THE POLES, is regarded as the symbolic beginning of geopolitical changes in our part of Europe. From a CZECHS historical perspective, how do Poles evaluate the sense of the change that started then? How AND HUNGARIANS do our opinions compare with those of our neighbours who have gone through the same ON THE CHANGES transition from real socialism to a market economy? A recent survey conducted by CBOS OF THE LAST and surveys conducted in Hungary (TARKI) and the Czech Republic (IVVM) try to answer DECADE these questions. The opinions of Poles analysed over a longer period show that respondents do not agree as to the balance of the changes that have taken place since 1989. Almost two-fifths of respondents believe that the changes that began after 1989 generally brought the Polish Ø SUPPORT FOR people more losses than gains. However, a majority believe that gains and losses associated POLAND'S with the changes are at least equal. One-fifth believe that there are more gains than losses. As INTEGRATION WITH compared with the opinions of the citizens of other “VysegradTriangle" countries (the Czech THE EUROPEAN Republic and Hungary), the opinions of Poles are not the worst. Hungarians evaluate the UNION changes taking place in their country the HAVE THE CHANGES TAKING PLACE IN THE least favourably, while among the Poles CZECH REPUBLIC/ HUNGARY/ POLAND SINCE 1989 and Czechs the level of optimistic BROUGHT PEOPLE MORE LOSSES OR GAINS? opinions is the same. However, the general balance is rather negative in these Ø ATTITUDES TO 45% countries as well. A larger part of OTHER NATIONS 42% respondents believe that the changes 37% taking place since 1989 have brought 31% 30% people more losses than gains. 28% 23% 24% However, the vast majority of Ø IN THE FAMILY Poles (over two-thirds), asked to evaluate CIRCLE 15% the changes from a historical perspective, 12% say that it was worthwhile to start political 8% 4% and economic transformation ten years The Czech Republic Hungary Poland ago. Only a quarter of respondents PUBLIC OPINION question the sense of the efforts of the last More gains than losses The same More losses than gains Difficult to say RESEARCH CENTER decade. Although the present opinions of - CBOS - Poles on this matter are a little less optimistic than four years ago, they are still exceptionally positive as compared with the 4a ¯urawia opinions of the citizens of the other VysegradGroup countries. 00-503 Warszawa Among the three nations POLAND discussed here, the Hungarians seem FROM A TEMPORAL PERSPECTIVE, DO YOU THINK to suffer the most as a result of the THAT IT WAS WORTHWHILE TO CHANGE THE POLITICAL changes of the last decade. Their AND ECONOMIC SYSTEM IN THE CZECH REPUBLIC/ HUNGARY / POLAND Ph: (48 22) 629 35 69 evaluation of the economic changes (48 22) 628 37 04 is much worse that the opinions of Yes Yes (48 22) 693 58 94 the residents of the other two countries, and a vast majority of 55% 46% Fax:(48 22) 629 40 89 Hungarians believe that their The Czech material conditions of living have Republic Hungary 13% Difficult 14% Difficult E-mail: [email protected] deteriorated. They are also the most to say to say 32% 40% pessimistic about the situation on the Not Not http://www.cbos.pl job market. Their evaluations of the Yes changes in their personal situation 67% © COPYRIGHT BY CBOS 1999 and personal life are also the most negative. They question their Poland ALL SOURCES MUST BE CREDITED present prosperity as compared with 12% Difficult WHEN ANY PART OF THIS that of ten years ago the most to say PUBLICATION IS REPRODUCED frequently; also, they observe that 24% the situation has changed for the worse, as far as safety is concerned, Not 2 11.99 more often than the residents of the other two countries. The opinions of Poles are more divided than those At the same time, they evaluate the previous economic of the Czechs and Hungarians. Despite a rather negative system, i.e. socialism, more positively than the Poles and balance of change, more Poles believe that it was Czechs. Interestingly enough, in spite of their pessimism, worthwhile to undertake the effort of political and the Hungarians appreciate the political changes the most. economic transformation than the residents of the other They notice that citizens have more opportunities to two countries. At the same time, the Poles appreciate the participate in public life (politics and local affairs) now changes in civil rights the most, particularly the possibility than before 1989 relatively more frequently than of expressing one's opinions in an open way. However, respondents from other countries. taking into consideration one's personal situation and leaving the historical perspective aside, a larger part of Poles are more dissatisfied than satisfied with the changes. PLEASE COMPARE YOUR PRESENT SITUATION WITH They believe that their material situation has deteriorated THE SITUATION BEFORE 1989 AND SAY WHETHER: and the chances of finding a job have fallen dramatically as compared with the situation before 1989. The opportunities of having an impact on the political life in the country are now: More information on this subject can be found in the CBOS report “The Czechs, Hungarians and Poles on the changes after 1989", December The Czech 20% 37% Republic 20% 23% 1999. SUPPORT FOR POLAND'S Hungary 41% 29% 14% 16% INTEGRATION WITH THE EUROPEAN UNION Poland 30% 44% 14% 12% In recent years we have noted a decrease in the support of Poles for our integration with the European Material conditions of living are now: Union. The November opinion poll shows that this tendency has weakened a little, at least temporarily. The Czech 30% 29% Republic 33% 8% During the last six months social support for Poland's membership in the EU has increased a little, but it still is lower than in previous years. Presently almost three-fifths Hungary 12% 16% 66% 6% of respondents opt for integration with the EU and a quarter are against it. Poland 25% 19% 46% 10% IF A REFERENDUM ON POLAND'S ENTRY INTO THE EU WERE HELD NOW, WOULD YOU VOTE: for Poland’s entry into the EU Your life is now generally: against Poland’s entry into the EU Difficult to say (%) 100 The Czech 35% 30% Republic 29% 6% 80 60 Hungary 18% 27% 49% 6% 40 Poland 28% 23% 40% 9% 20 0 A little bigger Neither bigger nor smaller VI’94 V’95 V’96 III’97 IV’97 VIII’97 V’98 VIII’98 XII’98 V’99 XI’99 A little smaller Difficult to say In spite of the fact that support for the idea of In contrast, the Czechs are the least frustrated by integration is still high, it seems that doubts associated their economic situation. Their opinions on the changes with it are on the increase. The ups and downs of the in the material conditions of living are more positive than negotiation process, during which we are confronted with the opinions of Hungarians and Poles. They also evaluate the expectations and requirements of the Union, the chances of finding a job relatively better (although encourage doubts and fears as to whether we will be able still not very well). They appreciate the possibility of free to satisfy them. At the same time, we are more and more travel the most, and are the most optimistic in their concerned about the competitiveness of the Polish evaluations of personal prosperity. They are the only economy and the trade balance. The growing fears in this nation to express satisfaction with the changes that have respect seem to be associated with the foreign trade taken place in their lives after 1989 slightly more deficit, which has been growing in recent years. This frequently than dissatisfaction. deficit is also present in our trade with the EU countries. PUBLIC OPINION RESEARCH CENTER - CBOS - 11.99 3 As a result, the Poles are more and more convinced that our are characterised by dislike towards the East (at least country is not yet ready for integration, and that our access partly associated with our history) and sympathy for the to the EU should be preceded by further major West (probably associated with our aspirations). Poles modernisation of the national economy. Moreover, future like the Americans, French and Italians the most - over benefits connected with the integration are less and less half of respondents declare that they like these clear. nationalities. Sympathy also prevails in our feelings towards the English, Hungarians, Czechs, Swedes, IN YOUR OPINION: Austrians, Slovaks and Japanese, but it is declared by less than half of respondents. The Gypsies (Romanies) and - Poland should repair, modernise its economy first and only then attempt EU membership Romanians are disliked the most by Poles. At least half of - Poland should try to become a EU member as soon as possible, because Union membership will accelerate the repair, modernisation of the Polish economy respondents declare their dislike towards our Eastern Difficult to say neighbours: Russians, Ukrainians and Belorussians. IV’97 48% 40% 12% THE ATTITUDE OF POLES TOWARDS DIFFERENT NATIONS. (average evaluations on the -3 (dislike) to +3 (sympathy) scale) VIII’97 43% 39% 19% Americans 0,9 XII’98 50% 34% 16% Italians 0,85 French 0,82 V’99 58% 26% 16% English 0,64 Hungarians 0,59 XI’99 62% 27% 11% Swedes 0,57 Czechs 0,5 As compared with December 1998, the Austrians 0,5 expectations that Poland should adopt a firm and rigid Slovaks 0,33 approach to negotiating the conditions of our entry into the Lithuanians 0,3 EU have become stronger.