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Eurozone All Quarterly Global Charts Are Located Here All quarterly Global charts are located here: S:\PUBLICATIONS\Commentaries - Quarterly\Euro_Global_UK Charts\2016Q1\Graphics Support 3Q Investment Report 2017 Eurozone Interest Rate Trends Central Bank Watch Eurozone yields traded in a range of 25 bps over the course of the quarter, The ECB left monetary policy unchanged, despite revising its growth fore- before ending the period marginally lower. casts up and its inflation forecasts down. President Draghi signaled that the future direction of the Asset Purchase Program would be announced at the October meeting. 2.0 120 110 1.5 30-Year 100 BoJ 90 Forecast 1.0 80 70 0.5 10-Year 60 50 0.0 40 ECB German Bund Yield (%) Yield German Bund 5-Year Balance Sheet (% of GDP) 30 -0.5 20 10 Fed -1.0 0 Mar 16 Jun 16 Sep 16 Dec 16 Mar 17 Jun 17 Sep 17 200920082007 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg, Western Asset, OECD. As of 30 Sep 17 Peripheral European Government Spreads Eurozone Growth and Inflation Peripheral bond spreads were marginally wider over the quarter as political The eurozone economy continued to strengthen as both survey and real uncertainty in Spain increased ahead of the “illegal” referendum on Catalonian economy data surprised to the upside. Headline inflation softened as core independence. inflation remained around 1.1%. 2.5 4 3 Eurozone CPI 2.0 2 Italy 1 1.5 0 Year-over-Year (%) Year-over-Year -1 1.0 10-Yr Govt Spread Over Germany (%) Germany Over Spread Govt 10-Yr Spain -2 Eurozone Real GDP 0.5 -3 2014 2015 2016 2017 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg Credit Excess Returns Currency Corporate bond spreads tightened over the quarter with financial-related The euro strengthened in response to stronger economic data and general issuers outperforming. US dollar weakness. 1.6 105 1.5 Trade-Weighted Euro 1.2 100 0.9 0.8 95 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.4 90 0.0 0.0 85 3Q17 Duration-Adjusted Excess Returns (%) Excess 3Q17 Duration-Adjusted -0.2 -0.4 80 Quasi-Govt Pfandbrief Industrial Utility Corporate ABS/MBS Financial High-Yield 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Source: Merrill Lynch Source: Bloomberg Eurozone PERFORMANCE SCORECARD We thought that … Therefore, we … And the results … The ECB would maintain its accommodative Held an underweight duration position. – Yields fell marginally over the course of the monetary policy stance, although the low quarter. level of yields and the continuing momen- tum of the eurozone economy offered little risk premium. Negative yields at the front of the yield curve Adopted a bullet strategy favouring 7- to 10- +/– The yield curve steepened with the 7-10 offered little value, while very long-dated year maturity bonds. year outperforming longer maturities but yields offered little risk premium against underperforming shorter maturities. stronger growth. The ECB’s sovereign asset purchase program Held an overweight position in Italy and an + Italian bonds outperformed Spanish bonds. would provide a backstop for peripheral underweight position in Spain as spreads Swedish bonds outperformed German bond markets. Italian spreads had widened tightened and political risks increased. Con- bunds. too much relative to Spain which had rising tinued to hold overweight to Swedish bonds political risk. Swedish bonds offered attractive relative to long-dated German bunds. premiums to German bunds, particularly at the long end of the yield curve. Supranational and Pfandbriefe spreads of- Remained underweight supranationals and + Supranational and Pfandbriefe issues un- fered poor value. Pfandbriefe in favour of corporate bonds. derperformed relative to corporate bonds. The ECB’s corporate asset purchase program Maintained an overweight to eurozone cor- + Eurozone corporates, particularly financials, would continue to support eurozone corpo- porate bonds. Retained a bias for UK and US outperformed. rate bonds, particularly non-financial issues. banks that had already deleveraged sub- The move to utility-like banking should be stantially and for industrials that were better supportive of financials. positioned to withstand eurozone fragilities. Held an overweight to the Swedish krona as Overweight Swedish krona relative to the + The Swedish krona outperformed the Aus- the fundamentals of the economy are strong. euro, switching to an overweight relative to tralian dollar. the Australian dollar as that currency appreci- ated strongly. Western Asset 2 Third Quarter 2017 Eurozone INVESTMENT OUTLOOK The 26 October meeting of the European Central Bank’s (ECB’s) However, as President Mario Draghi never tires of reminding us, Governing Council is the key event over the coming months for the ECB has only one policy objective: to keep inflation below European fixed-income investors, as both the future of the Asset (but close to) 2% over the medium term. The spectre of deflation Purchase Program (APP) and the general direction of monetary may have been slayed, at least for the moment, but the inflation policy will be announced. The current APP expires a week after outlook is still subdued. The uptick in the headline Consumer Price the ECB’s last Governing Council meeting of the year, meaning the Index (CPI) rate that we saw in 2016 has abated, with inflation now October meeting is the only viable option for an announcement at 2%. More worryingly, the core rate of inflation has barely been to allow investment markets a chance to adapt and consider the able to move much above the 1% level where it has lingered for outcome without too much disruption. the last three years, despite stronger domestic activity. The ECB has explicitly acknowledged that the inflation trajectory has not met its On economics alone, the argument for a reduction in stimulus ap- expectations in revising its medium-term inflation forecasts down pears unequivocal. GDP is growing at its fastest pace in seven years, yet again. In our view, this subdued inflation backdrop, part of a wider with momentum seemingly for further improvement. The growth global trend, should be sufficient to ensure that the ECB continues dynamic is broad-based, with the reliance on net exports being to provide extraordinary stimulus to the eurozone economy. dissipated as domestic demand has strengthened. Furthermore, it is not only the “core” economies that are benefitting, with the In addition, the shadow of the recent eurozone sovereign crisis periphery economies, particularly Spain, on an upward trajectory. and the funding situation of the periphery economies remain a Certainly the ECB is more optimistic, revising its growth forecast up powerful motive for continuing monetary accommodation. Clearly, to 2.2% for 2017—from an expectation of 1.6% at the beginning of “whatever it takes” has taken the existential risk to the eurozone off the year—taking it above the Western Asset forecast for the first the table; however, the socialization of periphery risk through the time this year. The last quarter saw a further uptick in the Purchasing ECB’s payment system is stark. Combined Spanish and Italian cen- Managers’ Index (PMI) indicators, taking the overall composite back tral bank liabilities to the core eurozone central banks are at record to a six-year high. Real economy indicators have followed suit, with highs, pointing a greater reliance on quantitative easing (QE) for industrial output and retail sales both strengthening over the course government funding. of the last six months. While we acknowledge the improvement in the economy, we continue to believe we are near the peak in euro- In conclusion, we expect the ECB at its October meeting to announce zone GDP, and that we should see a slower pace than that anticipated its intention to extend its Asset Purchase Program beyond the cur- by the ECB for 2018 and onwards. Broad money and credit growth, rent December 2017 maturity, albeit at a reduced pace. However, with the exception of Germany, have begun to weaken. Consumer given the dynamics discussed above we also anticipate the duration confidence is looking elevated in relation to historical norms, sug- of the program to be extended further than the market currently gesting that growth is softening to below 1.5% in 2018 and 2019. expects. At the same time we expect no changes in official interest This alone should, in our opinion, be enough to cause the ECB to rates, indeed, we believe they will remain at current levels until 2020 move ahead with caution. at least. This very accommodative approach to monetary policy will continue to support eurozone fixed-income investments, but will prove to be particularly beneficial for investment-grade and high- yield corporate bonds and periphery bonds. Western Asset 3 Third Quarter 2017 Eurozone INVESTMENT THEMES AND STRATEGIES Themes Strategies Although we believe growth will be strong in 2017, we are concerned Manage overall portfolio duration and yield-curve positioning tactically that 2018 will mark the onset of a slowdown. We believe the ECB will with a bias to be neutral duration. be required to extend QE further. With political uncertainty both do- mestically and overseas also adding to risks, we believe government yields will be range-bound. ECB asset purchases will be supportive of periphery spreads, although Maintain overweight to Italian government bonds and an underweight the political risk in Italy and Spain combined with a slowing of reform to Spanish bonds, but manage overall exposure tactically in response may limit the scope for a tightening of spreads. to any market volatility surrounding political uncertainty. Supranational spreads offer poor value. Pfandbriefe securities provide Remain underweight supranational and Pfandbriefe securities. minimal compensation for risk. Corporate bond valuations are now below historical averages. De- Remain overweight in investment-grade corporate bonds. Maintain mand for credit is expected to remain firm, however, and ECB asset a bias to financial issuers given the continued secular de-risking and purchases are expected to aid a further tightening of credit spreads.
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