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Third Quarter of 1389 (September 22 to December 21, 2010) March 2011

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Third Quarter of 1389 (September 22 to December 21, 2010) March 2011 I Quarterly Issue, Third Quarter of 1389 (September 22 to December 21, 2010) March 2011 Publisher’s Statement The Quarterly Economic and Statistical Bulletin of Da Afghanistan Bank was produced with the support of several departments and coordination by the Monetary Policy Department. The bulletin presents macroeconomic data and analysis of economic trends during the third quarter of 1389. II III Ibn-e-Sina Watt Kabul Afghanistan Telephone: +93-20-2100293 Internet: www.centralbank.gov.af Email: [email protected] All rights reserved First printing April 2011 Rights and permissions The material in this publication is copyrighted but may be freely quoted and reprinted. Acknowledgement is requested together with a copy of the publication. Note: Afghanistan Fiscal year is Solar Year which begins on March 21 each year. This Quarterly Bulletin covers developments in the third quarter of 1389 which is equivalent to September 22 to December 21, 2010. IV Contents GOVERNOR’S STATEMENT ....................................................................................................................... X EXECUTIVE SUMMARY .......................................................................................................................... XIII GLOBAL ECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT ........................................................................................................ 1 1 – GLOBAL ECONOMY ........................................................................................................................ 1 1.1 Industrial Production ................................................................................................................. 2 1.2 Global Inflation .......................................................................................................................... 4 1.3 Global Trade and Investment ..................................................................................................... 4 2 – ADVANCED ECONOMIES ................................................................................................................ 5 2.1 United States ............................................................................................................................. 5 2.2 Euro Area Economy.................................................................................................................... 6 2.3 Germany ................................................................................................................................... 7 2.4 France ....................................................................................................................................... 7 2.5 United Kingdom ......................................................................................................................... 8 2.6 Japan......................................................................................................................................... 9 3 - EMERGING ECONOMIES ............................................................................................................... 10 3.1 China ....................................................................................................................................... 10 3.2 India ........................................................................................................................................ 11 4 – ASSET AND COMMODITY PRICES ................................................................................................ 11 4.1 Financial Markets .................................................................................................................... 11 4.2 Commodity Markets ................................................................................................................ 12 4.3 Global Exchange Rate Movements ........................................................................................... 13 MONETARY AND CAPITAL MARKET DEVELOPMENTS ............................................................................. 17 1. PRGF-ECF MONETARY PROGRAM .................................................................................................. 18 2. MONETARY AGGREGATES ............................................................................................................. 19 3. CAPITAL MARKETS AND LIQUIDITY CONDITIONS ........................................................................... 21 3.1 Capital Note Auctions .............................................................................................................. 21 3.2 Term Structure of Interest Rates .............................................................................................. 24 3.3 Required and Excess Reserves.................................................................................................. 25 4. FOREIGN EXCHANGE MARKET ....................................................................................................... 26 4.1 Foreign Exchange Rates ........................................................................................................... 26 4.2 Net International Reserves ....................................................................................................... 28 4.3 Foreign Exchange Auction ........................................................................................................ 29 THE INFLATION TRENDS AND OUTLOOK ................................................................................................ 33 1. INFLATION IN AFGHANISTAN HITS DOUBLE DIGITS AGAIN ............................................................. 34 1.1 Current Quarter Changes in Kabul Headline Inflation ................................................................ 34 1.2 Current Quarter Changes in National Headline Inflation ........................................................... 35 1.3 Changes from Same Quarter, Last Year in Kabul Headline Inflation ........................................... 36 1.4 Changes from Same Quarter, Last Year in National Headline Inflation ...................................... 40 2. THE REGIONAL INFLATION ............................................................................................................. 43 2.1 Inflation Trend in Pakistan ....................................................................................................... 43 2.2 Inflation in India ...................................................................................................................... 44 2.3 Inflation Trend in Iran .............................................................................................................. 45 3. INFLATIONARY OUTLOOK .............................................................................................................. 46 FISCAL DEVELOPMENTS ......................................................................................................................... 49 V 1. REVENUES ..................................................................................................................................... 49 2. EXPENDITURES .............................................................................................................................. 52 3. FINANCING THE CORE BUDGET ...................................................................................................... 55 BANKING SYSTEM PERFORMANCE ......................................................................................................... 59 1. ASSETS OF THE BANKING SYSTEM ................................................................................................. 59 1.1 Claims on Financial Institutions ................................................................................................ 61 1.2 Net Loans ................................................................................................................................ 62 1.3 Non-performing loans .............................................................................................................. 63 1.4 Adversely-classified loans......................................................................................................... 63 1.5 Cash in Vault and Claims on DAB .............................................................................................. 64 2. LIABILITIES..................................................................................................................................... 64 2.1 Deposits .................................................................................................................................. 65 2.2 Capital ..................................................................................................................................... 66 2.3 Profitability.............................................................................................................................. 67 2.4 Foreign Exchange Risk ............................................................................................................. 68 2.5 Interest Rate Risk ..................................................................................................................... 68 EXTERNAL SECTOR DEVELOPMENTS ...................................................................................................... 73 1. MERCHANDISE TRADE ................................................................................................................... 74 2. DIRECTION OF TRADE ...................................................................................................................
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