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China / Hong Kong Industry Flash Note Refer to important disclosures at the end of this report DBS Group Research . Equity 18 Apr 2018 China Auto Sector A N ALYST Rachel MIU +852 2863 8843 [email protected] Government to liberalise auto sector over next 5 years Foreign ownership limits on new energy vehicles to be removed in 2018, on commercial 2. The commercial vehicle market accounts for about 30% vehicles in 2020 and on passenger vehicles in of the total vehicle market in China. Chinese commercial 2022 vehicle manufacturers such as Sinotruk, Qingling Motors and Dongfeng Motor have collaborations with MAN, Isuzu, Most international automakers have JVs in and Volvo Commercial Vehicles, etc. China; expect Tesla to ride on this new policy State-owned auto enterprises derive most of 3. State-owned automotive enterprises have many joint their earnings from JVs ventures with Japanese, European, American and Korean automakers in the passenger vehicles segment, and rely on Foreign automakers to be allowed more than 2 these ventures for most of their earnings. SAIC Motor Corp JVs. We prefer dealers like Zhonsheng (881HK) has JVs with General Motors and Volkswagen; Dongfeng and ZhengTong (3668 HK) which are not Motor with Nissan, Honda, Renault, Peugeot Citroen and affected by the new policy. Among the Infiniti; Guangzhou Automobile Industry Group with Honda, automakers, GAC (2238 HK) has a relatively Toyota, Fiat Chrysler and Mitsubishi; Changan Automobile strong self brand to mitigate any potential Group with Ford, Suzuki and Peugeot Citroen; Beijing negative impact. Automotive Industry Holding Co with Daimler and Hyundai; Brilliance Auto Group with BMW and Renault. Of these, What’s New only SAIC and Guangzhou Automobile have their own The national development and reform commission has relatively successful brands. released details on the liberalisation of the automobile sector. In stages and over five years, it aims to: 4. With the liberalisation spread over five years, Chinese and 1. remove the foreign ownership limit on joint ventures foreign automakers have sufficient time to prepare. Any involving special vehicles and new energy vehicles (NEV) in changes to the current structure may take some time to 2018, implement, so as to preserve existing joint ventures, which 2. remove the foreign ownership cap on commercial vehicle are working well, and to safeguard existing licensing joint ventures in 2020, arrangements with foreign partners. 3. remove the foreign ownership cap on passenger vehicle joint ventures in 2022, and 5. Many foreign automakers already have two joint ventures 4. allow foreign automobile companies to set up more than in China. We believe they will go for a third only if it makes two joint ventures. economic sense. Our view We expect some short term volatility in the automotive sector 1. From 2019, Chinese automakers are required to meet the following this announcement. Since the liberalisation is spread electric-vehicle quota. Tesla, which has no joint venture in over five years, there should not be any earnings impact in the China, may consider setting up production facilities on the near term. Even with the NEV market set to be liberalised this mainland or joining up with a local partner, either of which year, we do not anticipate very much happening soon, given means that at the earliest, it will take one to two years to the strong execution required to bring products onto the commission production. BYD Co should remain the largest market. Besides, NEV penetration rate is still very low as the NEV maker, having lined up a programme of NEV launches existing infrastructure support is still lacking. ahead of new competition. ed- DT/ sa- CS / CW China / Hong Kong Flash Note Auto dealers could benefit in the long term as increase in competition could drive down prices and help stimulate volume Foreign JVs contributions to total profits (FY 2017) sales. J C E earnings Auto manufacturers are expected to be under pressure in the J C E earnings To tal earnings to total near term as there are some uncertainty on whether their C o mpany name (R MB m) (R MB m) e arnings foreign partners would renegotiate the JV structures. Most auto GAC 6,738 11,005 61% SOEs derive bulk of earnings from the JVs. Dongfeng Motor 13,574 14,063 97% Brilliance China 5,233 4,376 120% The impact on Auto parts companies are quite neutral as they BAIC Motor 3,835 2,253 170% serve the same customer groups, unless foreign automakers SAIC Motor 28,304 34,410 82% decide to set up new JVs in addition to the existing ones. But CQ Changan 6,855 7,137 96% this may happen only in the mid-long term. Great Wall Motor 0 5,027 0% BYD 0 4,066 0% Geely Auto 0 10,634 0% Source: Companies, DBS Vickers Page 2 China / Hong Kong Flash Note DBSVHK recommendations are based an Absolute Total Return* Rating system, defined as follows: S TRONG BUY (>20% total return over the next 3 months, with identifiable share price catalysts within this time frame) B U Y (>15% total return over the next 12 months for small caps, >10% for large caps) H O LD (-10% to +15% total return over the next 12 months for small caps, -10% to +10% for large caps) FU LLY VALUED (negative total return i.e. > -10% over the next 12 months) S ELL (negative total return of > -20% over the next 3 months, with identifiable catalysts within this time frame) Share price appreciation + dividends Completed Date: 18 Apr 2018 09:27:45 (HKT) Dissemination Date: 18 Apr 2018 16:33:24 (HKT) Sources for all charts and tables are DBS Vickers unless otherwise specified. 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The research set out in this report is based on information obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we (which collectively refers to DBS Bank Ltd., DBS HK, DBSV HK, DBSVS, its respective connected and associated corporations, affiliates and their respective directors, officers, employees and agents (collectively, the “DBS Group”) have not conducted due diligence on any of the companies, verified any information or sources or taken into account any other factors which we may consider to be relevant or appropriate in preparing the research . Accordingly, we do not make any representation or warranty as to the accuracy, completeness or correctness of the research set out in this report. Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. This research is prepared for general circulation. Any recommendation contain ed in this document does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and the particular needs of any specific addressee. 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