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Network Development Plan 2020 Table of Contents

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Network Development Plan 2020 Table of Contents gasnetworks.ie Network Development Plan 2020 Table of contents 1. Foreword 02 6.5.2. Industrial and commercial sector 42 2. Executive summary 06 6.5.3. Residential sector 43 3. Introduction 12 6.5.4. Transport sector 43 3.1. Licence/regulatory obligations 13 6.6. The demand outlook 45 3.2. Environmental and planning considerations 13 6.6.1. Power generation sector gas demand 45 3.3. Overview of the Gas Networks Ireland system 14 6.6.2. Industrial and commercial sector gas demand 46 4. The future of the gas network 16 6.6.3. Residential sector gas demand 46 4.1. Compressed Natural Gas (CNG) 20 6.6.4. Transport sector gas demand 46 4.2. Renewable gas 20 6.6.5. Total annual gas demand 49 4.3 Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) 21 6.6.6. Peak day gas demand 49 4.4 Hydrogen 22 6.6.7. Role of gas in power generation 50 4.5 Climate Action Plan and the NECP 25 7. Gas supply 54 4.6 The energy policy landscape 27 7.1. Moffat Entry Point 56 5. Historic demand & supply 28 7.2. Corrib gas 56 5.1. COVID-19 demand impact 29 7.3. Kinsale gas 57 5.2. ROI annual primary energy requirement 29 7.4. Renewable gas 57 5.3. Historic annual gas demand 30 7.5. Other supply developments 59 5.4. Historic peak day gas demand 32 8. Gas growth 60 5.5. Ireland’s weather 32 8.1. Residential new connections growth 61 5.6. Wind powered generation 32 8.2. Industrial & commercial sector development 63 5.7. Electricity interconnectors 32 8.2.1 Data centres 63 5.8. Historic gas supply 33 8.2.2 Combined Heat & Power (CHP) 64 6. Gas demand forecasts 34 8.2.3 Other developments 64 6.1. Gas demands 35 8.3. New towns and suburbs policy 65 6.2. Gas demand forecasting 35 8.4. Transport 66 6.3. Gas demand scenarios 36 8.5. Renewable gas 68 6.4. Alignment of NDP scenarios with ENTSOG ten 9. Commercial market arrangements 70 year Network Development Plan 37 9.1. Republic of Ireland gas market 71 6.5. Demand forecast assumptions 38 9.2. European developments 71 6.5.1. Power generation sector 38 Gas Networks Ireland Table of contents 01 9.2.1 Capacity allocation mechanism 71 Data freeze and rounding In order to complete the detailed analysis and 9.2.2 Balancing 72 modelling required to produce this document, the demand and supply scenarios were defined in July 2020, based on the most up to 9.2.3 Tariffs 72 date information at the time. In presenting the data obtained for publication in the Network 9.2.4 Transparency 72 Development Plan, energy values have been rounded to one decimal place, and aggregated 9.2.5 European Green Deal 72 growth/contraction rates are expressed as whole numbers to aid clarity. In certain cases, 10. Gas network capacity 74 rounding may lead to slight variance in sum totals. 10.1 Capital investment 75 Disclaimer 10.1.1 Investment planning 75 Gas Networks Ireland has followed accepted industry practice in the collection and analysis of data available. However, prior to taking 10.1.2 Regulatory capital allowance 75 business decisions, interested parties are advised to seek separate and independent 10.1.3 Unregulated projects 76 opinion in relation to the matters covered by the present Network Development Plan 10.1.4 Completed capital programmes 77 and should not rely solely upon data and information contained therein. Information 10.1.5 Future system capacity 77 in this document does not purport to contain all the information that a prospective investor 11. CRU commentary 80 or participant in the Republic of Ireland’s gas market may need. Copyright notice All rights reserved. This entire publication Appendix 1: Historic demand 83 is subject to the laws of copyright. This publication may not be reproduced or Appendix 2: Demand forecasts 87 transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic or manual, including photocopying Appendix 3: Energy efficiency assumptions 91 without the prior written permission of Gas Networks Ireland. Appendix 4: Transmission network modelling 92 Glossary 93 02 Gas Networks Ireland Network Development Plan 2020 Foreword Foreword Welcome to the 2020 ten-year Network Development Plan (NDP) published by Gas Networks Ireland. 1.0This document provides a view of how the gas network may develop over a ten-year period. It is based on current supply and demand for gas, as well as projections for gas consumption and development of infrastructure. The document follows a process of engagement and consultation, both internally and through informal consultation with key industry stakeholders. Gas Networks Ireland Foreword 03 As noted in Section 3, the primary in line with pre-COVID-19 levels on purpose of the NDP is to assess the gas aggregate. The impact of current network’s capacity based on existing ongoing COVID-19 related economic and forecast supply and demand in restrictions are incorporated in our gas order to guarantee the adequacy of demand projections. However, given the gas transportation system and the ongoing and dynamic nature of the security of supply. As such, the supply pandemic and associated restrictions, and demand assumptions which define certain modelling assumptions may the scenarios presented in this NDP evolve and become replaced relatively are based on a prudent assessment quickly – in this event, assumptions of current energy policy in Ireland. will be further calibrated in next year’s The Best Estimate scenario aligns to NDP as necessary. Throughout 2020, existing policy measures in place per gas supplies have been available Ireland’s National Energy and Climate to customers 24/7/365, which is Plan (NECP) for 2021 – 2030. Gas testament to the underlying resilience Networks Ireland continue to monitor of the gas network and the long- latter half of the forecast horizon. While ongoing energy policy development term investment strategies delivered the capacity on the interconnector and will incorporate additional policy and underpinned by the Network pipelines is more than adequate to measures into the NDP Best Estimate Development Plan process. meet all gas demand projections over scenario as they are developed. the 10 year horizon, the potential Over the 10 year forecast horizon constraint arises at the associated Throughout the COVID-19 pandemic, considered in this document, gas compressor station installations. Gas Networks Ireland have demand in Ireland is anticipated Gas Networks Ireland will keep this implemented the recommendations to increase, with strong growth of potential constraint under review in and guidelines from the HSE and Irish 23% projected in the Best Estimate subsequent Network Development Government to minimise the spread scenario. The main drivers for growth Plans. Measures are being explored to of the COVID-19 virus, and frequently are within the Power Generation relieve this constraint in the medium update relevant Government sector, and include a significant and long term. Departments on our activities. projected growth in electricity demand, The COVID-19 pandemic has had a the need for additional gas-fired power Natural gas remains the fuel most notable impact on gas demand in the generation to meet this demand, and required to assist Ireland’s transition Industrial and Commercial sector, but the anticipated closure of certain non- to a low carbon economy, as it is the gas demand in the Power Generation gas fired thermal generation plant. optimal complementary energy source and Residential sectors have not been The ambitious targets assumed for to intermittent renewable energy such materially impacted and overall gas integration of renewable electricity as wind and solar, given its flexibility. usage on the network is generally sources result in the displacement of a Natural gas continues its key role in certain amount of gas demand in this Ireland’s energy system providing sector, thus off-setting the portion of approximately 30% of the country’s growth that might otherwise occur. primary energy needs. Approximately “Gas Networks Ireland Industrial and Commercial sector gas 700,000 households and businesses in continue to monitor demand is also projected to grow, as is Ireland rely on natural gas for a secure ongoing energy policy Transport. The Residential sector is the and competitive source of heating. In only sector showing negative growth 2019, 52% of Ireland’s electricity was development and will over the 10 years, this trend reflects powered by natural gas1. incorporate additional the current policy positions that are policy measures into the built into the modelling assumptions. Gas Networks Ireland welcomes the submission by the Department NDP Best Estimate scenario Given the scope for growth, the current of the Environment, Climate and as they are developed.” technical supply capacity at Moffat Communications (DECC), of Ireland’s is anticipated to be exceeded in the National Energy and Climate Plan 1 System and Renewable Data Summary Report – EirGrid 04 Gas Networks Ireland Network Development Plan 2020 1.0 Foreword (continued) for 2021 – 2030 to the European natural gas network can be utilised as Commission. In recognising that a national vehicle refuelling network, “We are currently developing Ireland must significantly increase giving the commercial transport sector a Hydrogen Innovation its commitments to tackling climate access to a cleaner, cheaper fuel with disruption, Gas Networks Ireland a similar operational performance to Centre at the Brownsbarn published “Vision 2050 - A Net Zero diesel. Heavy goods vehicles (HGV) AGI site in Dublin. In addition, Carbon Gas Network for Ireland” in account for 20% of all energy related various studies are ongoing October 2019 which sets out one carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions in potential pathway to reducing Ireland’s the road transport sector, despite internally to assess the total carbon emissions by one third, by accounting for only 3% of the total unique aspects of the Irish creating a net zero carbon gas network number of road vehicles.
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