Saratoga Race Course Saturday, September 4Th, 2021
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Saratoga Race Course Saturday, September 4th, 2021 Race 1 – Turf – 5.5 Furlongs $85k Maiden Allowance for NY-Bred 3YOs #1 Brian’s Mission 12/1 The 73h/64h debut was a little slow compared to the other experienced runners in this one. Any runner making their 2nd career start is generally considered eligible to move forward. This one didn’t show much clear on the outside which is sometimes better as it’s less stressful for a young runner not used to traffic so this switch to the inside position might not be ideal unless he flees the rail. They add blinkers so perhaps that’s the plan here? #2 Distractandattack 20/1 Has some natural speed off a 77h/66 at Saratoga and a couple Belmont sprints of 80h/72 and 83/71h where he just didn’t quite have it nearing the wire. It’s incredibly tough to take a runner who can’t sustain a lead against maiden claimers and expect them to do so against protected runners. #3 Citizen K 15/1 Disappointing public favorite on debut triggering a NEG on dirt then a non-factor in the slop. Looks to try turf here which could help being a less stressful surface and the addition of Lasix can change some things as well. Turf sprint pedigree is neither terrible nor remarkable. 20/1 shot to surprise seems fair. #4 Heroneandonly 50/1 Below average pedigree on turf and possibly more suited to synthetic. Trainer is 0/11 hitting the board with debut runners and 2/51 on turf last 5 years. #5 War Smoke 5/2 73/70h looks like a top contender type debut running line in this field. Enough 4F to remain in contention but a much more compressed turf spread (Final minus 4F) than other turf sprint tries from this field. Runner looked good breezing when sold at his 2-year old sale and meets metrics of runners that break their maiden within the first few starts. #6 Fuoco 30/1 Was a bit “forward” on debut at 76h/64h really needing to show more even energy distribution if he wants to stick around when the real racing starts in stretch. The more relaxed pace of a route was better but didn’t make him much more competitive at 67/69h. No reason to think he’s got things figured out cutting back down to this sprint. #7 Giramonte 5/1 Original connections lost confidence quick giving him only one start as a protected maiden before dropping him in for a tag. Sometimes a barn switch and change in training regimen can give a runner some spark and there was some improvement for these first couple runs under new barn at 75h/69 and 78/70 on this track. If he was going to pop something bigger, I would have expected it already. Might lack killer instinct having settled for minor placings 5 times in a row. Catches another field today where he can hit the exotics but 5/1 seems light to back underneath for a runner I’m likely not taking on top. #8 B C Glory Days 8/1 Flashed early speed in 3 dirt tries unable to sustain on then moved to turf where he was a bit more reserved at 56/66 than I would have imagined after those dirt tries. Did blow the start a bit so hope to see a better break today having seen turf now. Public seems to like how he looks in the morning having made him a favorite twice and never worse than 6/1. Looks like a runner I could throw into my horizontals at this price. #9 Sheriff Bianco 3/1 Runner has good speed and get blinkers here so looks a threat to try holding prominent position today. Sports connections that will likely draw some money and while runner looks like a contender, the running lines as of late going 78/69h on this track are similar to others. Looks to go off as an underlay and worth trying to beat. #10 On The Dean’s List 50/1 Very slow with both a dirt and turf try. #11 El Diablo 15/1 Nothing particularly positive nor negatrive sticks out on debut runner for connections that have had a tough meet. #12 Suit Of Armor 6/1 Respectable 72h/66 on debut rates a cut below some others carries good shot to take a step forward here with top connections behind. Perhaps bettors won’t like how far outside he’s drawn and let this one go at big odds? For this type of race, I’d actually prefer letting him be way outside and clear of traffic or distraction allowed to show his natural potential. At face value, he’s an outsider here needing a good amount of improvement on the Figures. If he gets lost at 10/1 or longer though, he’s got okay enough pedigree and certainly good enough connections to include in case of a dramatic uptick in 2nd career start. Race 1 Wagering #5 War Smoke to WIN at 5/2 or better $1 Trifecta #5 with #8 with ALL ($10) $1 Trifecta #5 with ALL with #8 ($10) Backup with $3 Exacta 8-5 ($6) Horizontal Wagers Must use: 5 Fringe Adds: 8-9 Deep Toss-Ins: 12-7-3 Race 2 – Dirt – 9 Furlongs $20k Claiming for 3YOs & Up #1 Acker 20/1 Turf runner has seen his running lines take a dip entering 7-year old season. Has some dirt tries but doesn’t seem to be his preferred surface. Although the dirt spreads around 0 are “compressed” and many good routers match that dirt spread, Acker’s problem is those “compressed” spreads consist of slow early and slow late. I think this runner is much more meant to stay on turf, just needs to face that he’s moving down the class ladder. Blinkers on here is likely just an experiment just as the dirt try is. Toss. #2 Supreme Aura 2/1 Been putting in a lot of good work lately running three consecutive CPTs (Cyclical Pace Tops) before a SOFT win when catching a muddy track. At this short price, I’m concerned about new barn’s ability to keep this positive condition going as the switch to the Rodriguez training regimen seems to be what spurred this onslaught of big Figures. Tough to say if a new barn’s tactics are going to sustain what we’ve seen as of late. I don’t see any former Rodriguez runners in the barn’s list of 1st off the claim winners so there’s no barn-to-barn teamwork that I can see historically. May have to look to beat this one due to the short odds and question of regression being imminent at some point in a campaign of stringing top performances together. If he beats me, he beats me. Wouldn’t blame anyone who ignores the barn switch and takes the Figures at face value which alone indicate this one deserves favoritism. #3 Grumps Little Tots 3/1 The 67h/70h last out is a big long-term regression from last year’s try here at 64h/76. The AQU Figures also show a drop in performance form last year as well only earning a victory this season when allowed to settle on an easy 58 4F Figure. Looks a bit short on price as well. #4 Roaming Union 6/1 Runner is a bit inconsistent and stands the risk of regressing here after popping a big performance but stands to be worth inclusion off the 74h/71 after posting the fastest Last 4F Figure of the field with a competitive Final Figure to pair. Connections feel good enough to bring this one back in 4 weeks and move up the ladder $12k to $20k. #5 Legit 12/1 Best running comes when allowed to relax and set down hard late with plenty of experience passing runners in stretch. No rivals in the race match his ability to put up double-digit negative dirt spreads (4F minus Final). The deep closing style of being out of position on dirt is a tough one to back because dirt closers can rarely “take a race for themself” as they are in need of others to all back up to catch. For this reason, runner would be tough to make a win bet on, but could make a great inclusion to horizontal wagers since he covers the scenario of a pace meltdown well. #6 Heavy Roller 30/1 Most experienced runner in the field hitting the half a century club in last with 50 lifetime starts. Should catch first fast track for new trainer that attempted bumping this one up in price to no avail. Majority of lifetime wins have come on an “off” track. Certainly needs to move forward quite a bit from last out’s 60h/65h. Had a couple Belmont performances on fast tracks this spring at 68/70 and 70/72h that would propel this one into the exotics. Consider if you’re a trifecta/superfecta player. #7 Universal Payday 8/1 Lost a little kick entering ’21 season with last out’s route producing a 4F Figure a good amount slower than any of ‘20’s running lines. Ran on a bit to a 70 Final. Needs to be able to match a better 4F today to hold a contentious spot while also holding onto last out’s Final and even bumping it up.