Saratoga Race Course Saturday, September 4th, 2021

Race 1 – Turf – 5.5 Furlongs $85k Maiden Allowance for NY-Bred 3YOs

#1 Brian’s Mission 12/1 The 73h/64h debut was a little slow compared to the other experienced runners in this one. Any runner making their 2nd career start is generally considered eligible to move forward. This one didn’t show much clear on the outside which is sometimes better as it’s less stressful for a young runner not used to traffic so this switch to the inside position might not be ideal unless he flees the rail. They add blinkers so perhaps that’s the plan here?

#2 Distractandattack 20/1 Has some natural speed off a 77h/66 at Saratoga and a couple Belmont sprints of 80h/72 and 83/71h where he just didn’t quite have it nearing the wire. It’s incredibly tough to take a runner who can’t sustain a lead against maiden claimers and expect them to do so against protected runners.

#3 Citizen K 15/1 Disappointing public favorite on debut triggering a NEG on dirt then a non-factor in the slop. Looks to try turf here which could help being a less stressful surface and the addition of Lasix can change some things as well. Turf sprint pedigree is neither terrible nor remarkable. 20/1 shot to surprise seems fair.

#4 Heroneandonly 50/1 Below average pedigree on turf and possibly more suited to synthetic. Trainer is 0/11 hitting the board with debut runners and 2/51 on turf last 5 years.

#5 War Smoke 5/2 73/70h looks like a top contender type debut running line in this field. Enough 4F to remain in contention but a much more compressed turf spread (Final minus 4F) than other turf sprint tries from this field. Runner looked good breezing when sold at his 2-year old sale and meets metrics of runners that break their maiden within the first few starts.

#6 Fuoco 30/1 Was a bit “forward” on debut at 76h/64h really needing to show more even energy distribution if he wants to stick around when the real racing starts in stretch. The more relaxed pace of a route was better but didn’t make him much more competitive at 67/69h. No reason to think he’s got things figured out cutting back down to this sprint.

#7 Giramonte 5/1 Original connections lost confidence quick giving him only one start as a protected maiden before dropping him in for a tag. Sometimes a barn switch and change in training regimen can give a runner some spark and there was some improvement for these first couple runs under new barn at 75h/69 and 78/70 on this track. If he was going to pop something bigger, I would have expected it already. Might lack killer instinct having settled for minor placings 5 times in a row. Catches another field today where he can hit the exotics but 5/1 seems light to back underneath for a runner I’m likely not taking on top.

#8 B C Glory Days 8/1 Flashed early speed in 3 dirt tries unable to sustain on then moved to turf where he was a bit more reserved at 56/66 than I would have imagined after those dirt tries. Did blow the start a bit so hope to see a better break today having seen turf now. Public seems to like how he looks in the morning having made him a favorite twice and never worse than 6/1. Looks like a runner I could throw into my horizontals at this price.

#9 Sheriff Bianco 3/1 Runner has good speed and get blinkers here so looks a threat to try holding prominent position today. Sports connections that will likely draw some money and while runner looks like a contender, the running lines as of late going 78/69h on this track are similar to others. Looks to go off as an underlay and worth trying to beat.

#10 On The Dean’s List 50/1 Very slow with both a dirt and turf try.

#11 El Diablo 15/1 Nothing particularly positive nor negatrive sticks out on debut runner for connections that have had a tough meet.

#12 Suit Of Armor 6/1 Respectable 72h/66 on debut rates a cut below some others carries good shot to take a step forward here with top connections behind. Perhaps bettors won’t like how far outside he’s drawn and let this one go at big odds? For this type of race, I’d actually prefer letting him be way outside and clear of traffic or distraction allowed to show his natural potential. At face value, he’s an outsider here needing a good amount of improvement on the Figures. If he gets lost at 10/1 or longer though, he’s got okay enough pedigree and certainly good enough connections to include in case of a dramatic uptick in 2nd career start.

Race 1 Wagering #5 War Smoke to WIN at 5/2 or better

$1 Trifecta #5 with #8 with ALL ($10) $1 Trifecta #5 with ALL with #8 ($10) Backup with $3 Exacta 8-5 ($6)

Horizontal Wagers Must use: 5 Fringe Adds: 8-9 Deep Toss-Ins: 12-7-3 Race 2 – Dirt – 9 Furlongs $20k Claiming for 3YOs & Up

#1 Acker 20/1 Turf runner has seen his running lines take a dip entering 7-year old season. Has some dirt tries but doesn’t seem to be his preferred surface. Although the dirt spreads around 0 are “compressed” and many good routers match that dirt spread, Acker’s problem is those “compressed” spreads consist of slow early and slow late. I think this runner is much more meant to stay on turf, just needs to face that he’s moving down the class ladder. Blinkers on here is likely just an experiment just as the dirt try is. Toss.

#2 Supreme Aura 2/1 Been putting in a lot of good work lately running three consecutive CPTs (Cyclical Pace Tops) before a SOFT win when catching a muddy track. At this short price, I’m concerned about new barn’s ability to keep this positive condition going as the switch to the Rodriguez training regimen seems to be what spurred this onslaught of big Figures. Tough to say if a new barn’s tactics are going to sustain what we’ve seen as of late. I don’t see any former Rodriguez runners in the barn’s list of 1st off the claim winners so there’s no barn-to-barn teamwork that I can see historically. May have to look to beat this one due to the short odds and question of regression being imminent at some point in a campaign of stringing top performances together. If he beats me, he beats me. Wouldn’t blame anyone who ignores the barn switch and takes the Figures at face value which alone indicate this one deserves favoritism.

#3 Grumps Little Tots 3/1 The 67h/70h last out is a big long-term regression from last year’s try here at 64h/76. The AQU Figures also show a drop in performance form last year as well only earning a victory this season when allowed to settle on an easy 58 4F Figure. Looks a bit short on price as well.

#4 Roaming Union 6/1 Runner is a bit inconsistent and stands the risk of regressing here after popping a big performance but stands to be worth inclusion off the 74h/71 after posting the fastest Last 4F Figure of the field with a competitive Final Figure to pair. Connections feel good enough to bring this one back in 4 weeks and move up the ladder $12k to $20k.

#5 Legit 12/1 Best running comes when allowed to relax and set down hard late with plenty of experience passing runners in stretch. No rivals in the race match his ability to put up double-digit negative dirt spreads (4F minus Final). The deep closing style of being out of position on dirt is a tough one to back because dirt closers can rarely “take a race for themself” as they are in need of others to all back up to catch. For this reason, runner would be tough to make a win bet on, but could make a great inclusion to horizontal wagers since he covers the scenario of a pace meltdown well.

#6 Heavy Roller 30/1 Most experienced runner in the field hitting the half a century club in last with 50 lifetime starts. Should catch first fast track for new trainer that attempted bumping this one up in price to no avail. Majority of lifetime wins have come on an “off” track. Certainly needs to move forward quite a bit from last out’s 60h/65h. Had a couple Belmont performances on fast tracks this spring at 68/70 and 70/72h that would propel this one into the exotics. Consider if you’re a trifecta/superfecta player.

#7 Universal Payday 8/1 Lost a little kick entering ’21 season with last out’s route producing a 4F Figure a good amount slower than any of ‘20’s running lines. Ran on a bit to a 70 Final. Needs to be able to match a better 4F today to hold a contentious spot while also holding onto last out’s Final and even bumping it up. It’s a lot to ask for a runner here in one race. Got to be double-digits to consider today.

#8 Ashaar 4/1 Failed favorite the first 5 times the public backed him so tough to trust but got it done last out when he relaxed to a gate-to-wire 66/73 coming off our best Form Cycle Pattern for dirt of the NPT (New Pace Top) earned 2 races back. Eligible to stay fit now 2nd off the NPT after not expelling too much energy in last. Bit of a concern when you see a runner’s price cut in half coming off a win though.

#9 Baby I’m Perfect 10/1 Comes back quick in 3 weeks after just missing at one turn on a 73h/70h which is pretty compressed for a one-turn event. Routing-wise, hasn’t quite been able to sustain the distance this year. Still, the sprint move was a good conditioning race for another try back out to distance here as he’ll now see an easier pace scenario than that race and may appreciate it. Inconsistent runner stands a chance to upset and is worth a look for double-digits.

Race 2 Wagers This is one of those suspect fields where you could list a “Why They Will Win” and “Why They Won’t Win” for every runner. I think you’d be hard up to confidently construct an exotics wager here and better off hoping to hit a price spreading in the multi-race bets.

I made the general case for why runners like #5 Legit are hard to take a WIN bet on, but this might be the perfect race to make a small exception. With so many questions on these runners going long, if #5 Legit goes off at 15/1 or better, those are fair enough odds to see if the entire race falls apart and try a wager.

Horizontal Wagers I’m looking to beat the top 2 morning line favorites here so this grid is a bit deeper than usual at the top. Muse Use: 4-8-5-9 Fringe Adds: 6-7 Deep Toss-Ins: 2

Race 3 – Dirt – 7 Furlongs $100k Maiden Special Weight for 3YOs & Up

#1 North Carolina 5/1 Didn’t do much on debut while well-supported at the windows but now comes in with the ultimate equipment change since gelded and going for a new barn. Hasn’t missed a beat in training with a couple bullets and trainer was happy with just one gate work. Speightstown foals are some of the best around when it comes to dirt sprints. Tote board might be telling of chances here.

#2 Waxman 8/1 For a positive, the trainer/owner combo wins within their first few starts with a horse a very high percentage of the time and has produced a few big name ones with Happy Saver last year and Spinoff a few years back. For a negative, Waxman’s full sibling has been a bust unable to win in the low maiden claiming ranks so far.

#3 Sticky Issue 12/1 The 76h/70 NEG while a move that points to 2nd out regression many times was still compressed enough I would have expected a better performance than the pace-heavy 78/64 NPT that followed. Has a high chance of now moving back forward but tough ask not only moving back forward to the debut numbers but likely needing to improve them. 12/1 does seem like a fair assessment.

#4 Ubiquitous 6/1 The forward running line of 72/61 NEG on debut was followed by a lengthy workout regimen of quick works and plenty of bullets. Showed up here geared up to an 82h/70h DTOP. Lightly-raced runners are much more eligible to break through DTOPs than established runners since their potential ceiling is unknown. If that blowout race setting the 82h 4F Figure didn’t tire this one out, certainly rates a big threat here. Note the “IF” part of that.

#5 Baltasar 15/1 Didn’t show up to race on debut but does sport great pedigree for his 2nd chance. I wouldn’t throw out too quick without considering if you can fit him onto a ticket without breaking the bank first.

#6 Cody’s Wish 8/5 Triggered a 76h/74h COMP on debut with the “compression line” being the Form Cycle Pattern you want to see with a debut runner. Ended up being a nice race with all but one rival that day hitting the board in their next starts. Did well to run on after a slow start going longer in 2nd try. My worry is that while many see slow starts as an excuse and opportunity to bet the horse back, more often than not, runners just repeat those mistakes rather than fixing them. Runner has talent and probably needs included if ticket allows but not sure I’m sold he’s worth yielding outright favoritism to just yet.

#7 Pipeline 2/1 Was a bit slower than some other rivals compared to their first tries but still triggered the coveted COMP Pattern on a 65/68. After a turf conditioner, took well to moving forward with distance when nearly wiring the field. Look for this one to run well back in 38 days here. Big name trainer is known for turf and taking his time bringing runners back to the track. However, his maiden special weight dirt entries are 30% winners and 67% on the board last 5 years.

Horizontal Wagers: Tempted to spread a bit here as gate problems are detrimental on dirt. Race 4 – Turf – 5.5 Furlongs $103k Allowance N1X for F&M 3YOs & Up

#1 Lilly Simone 10/1 70h/68h last out in a good effort first time against winners. The 67/71h maiden breaker came easily so may be able to give a little credit when finding others traversed Belmont’s configuration with much higher Figures. Morning line seems fair.

#2 Fort Drum 15/1 70h/71h turf debut winner in which we would have liked to see a bit bigger turf spread as she was nearly caught there and now must face winners that will bring even more stretch acceleration at her.

#3 Screamin’ By 9/2 Strong wet track pedigree held true victorious on a yielding track last out (which often produce slower Figures than firm tracks) so we won’t count the 69h/68h as a regression off the 74/76h effort. Didn’t have the strongest foundation leading into that career best running line and now could be any condition starting a new campaign after 60+ days rest. Was a stewards scratch in July when entered to a minor stakes at Colonial.

#4 Fetching 8/1 Claimed in consecutive races, now goes for 3rd barn in 3 starts off the 68h/64h at today’s journey from a big 77h/76h from the same Belmont race as #3, but while enjoying a stronger foundation leading into it than that rival. New barn is well known for spreading lots of wins around at lower tier tracks but does have some winners with today’s new owner in a limited sample up at Saratoga.

#6 Harper’s In Charge 4/1 Has flashed early speed on dirt in all 3 tries. While speed on turf doesn’t always mean speed on dirt, you can bet that runners showing speed on dirt can easily duplicate that moving to turf given they don’t hate the surface. Count on this one to be prominently placed and looking to steal this one.

#7 Risky Mischief 8/5 While the back Figures at Belmont in the 67/73 range have been plenty matched by others, this is the only of those comparable runners that really took to the tighter configuration of Saratoga with a nice 80/72h just missing last out. Certainly a threat right back here.

#8 Miss Domina 6/1 Woke up on dirt last out handling the big move up the ladder from claimers to allowance when breaking maiden. Moves back to turf here with the 72h/65 try at Saratoga being a good amount slow to be competitive today. Pedigree is really solid for dirt and perhaps this is a prep race before switching her back to face winners on the main track.

#9 Meet The Beauty 8/1 Most experience comes going longer with the PLOW triggered 2nd time on turf pointing toward future success on turf. May be looking for a favorable set-up today as she couldn’t quite keep up last out trying this distance. However, Monmouth’s meet on turf has been favorable for speed and there’s the question of no crop affecting her finishing ability as well. Bit of a wildcard here.

Horizontal Wagers I think the Top 2 on the morning line do carry a large portion of the possible Win% in this race and while not a big value seeking strategy, you can move on and go deeper in other legs looking for a price. If you’ve got the budget to go further, here you go: Must Use: 6-7 Fringe Adds: 4-3 Deep Toss-Ins: 9-1

Race 5 – Dirt – 6 Furlongs $250k Grade II Prioress Stakes for 3YO Fillies

#1 Oxana 3/1 Impressive to trigger a compression line at 81h/78 COMP on dirt debut considering the 18 length victory. Runner was well geared down here facing no competition and was better set up to trigger a false NEG than a COMP. Had an easy time against winners next out at 82/73h NPT but now we get to see what she can do against actual competition and pressure.

#2 Edie Meeny Miny Mo 9/2 Shown nice speed sprinting from a 78h/68h NEG to a 84h/76h DTOP that featured a 90+ 2F Figure and was professional enough to settle down on the forward dirt spreads when trying a route. The most stressful portion of a dirt sprint is the break with the rest of the race being one of deceleration making position very important here. Need decent odds on this one to outweigh the risk of a runner that has had gate problems multiple times. If she doesn’t break well yet again, she’s likely dead in the water against these.

#3 Li’l Tootsie 12/1 Nice COMP on debut and big improvement 2nd out but hasn’t progressed much against winners from looking good as a maiden. Not competitive in 3 graded stakes tries so far.

#4 Cilla 8/1 Enters in top form off by far her best Final Figures of short career back to back. The 85h/75h DTOP at EVD came in the slop so likely wasn’t as tiring as those numbers on a fast track allowing her to pop an 84/75h SOFT next out at MTH. Most of this field can better those lifetime tops she’s coming in from so for her to keep the campaign going strong, I’m more in the range of 15/1 or better for consideration.

#5 Amendment Nineteen 4/1 Caught wet tracks in first couple starts then blew up a big 78/76 at today’s trip first time on a fast surface. It goes down as a DTOP but remains well-compressed and projects a talented and professional runner. Previous owners got a steal here as she’s already earned 4x her purchase price after the breeder took a hit selling for 4x less than the stud fee. Looks to move on forward after a private purchase to Juddmonte with new trainer Cox. Whatever apparent issue with her that turned bidders away as a yearling seems to be long gone. Another note…1st time Blinkers is often just an experiment but when it comes through and works as it did for this one, 2nd time blinkers is often a very strong spot.

#6 Souper Sensational 6/5 No surprise as favorite here off the 75h/76h at this trip, a nicely speedy and compressed at the same time 75/75h while traversing Belmont’s wider configuration after popping the 85/77 NPT in first sprint. She’s taken on much better rivals on a consistent basis than her counterparts today and built the foundation early on in career to hold late pace strong schooling on synthetic before a run of dirt routes preceding her cut back campaign to sprinting.

Horizontal Wagers This race kicks off the Mandatory Payout Pick 5 while also ending the Early Pick 5 so you’ll clearly get to see who the public is backing here to help you make a value-based decision on contenders to include. Tough to invest more than 2 or 3 deep in this race.

Must Use: 6-5 Fringe Adds: 1 Deep Toss-Ins: 4-2

Race 6 – Inner Turf – 8.5 Furlongs $100k Maiden Special Weight for 2YOs

#1 Faith Runner 30/1 Ignore the COMP designation triggered here as the “even energy distribution” exhibited here consisted of “no run early + no run late.” Discouraging to see a $300k horse get no public support on debut.

#2 I’ll Figure It Out 12/1 Showed a “forward” dirt spread going 77/62h NEG on debut. Can very likely show early speed here on the less stressful turf surface. Has a longshot’s chance to steal it but most likely will use as a conditioner to re-try dirt.

#3 Calloway Peak 8/1 The late Arrogate hasn’t had much success as a sire in a small sample to date. Mott is more known to take his time with runners than to fire hard on debut. Odds board should hint at runner’s chances.

#4 Southern Sense 20/1 No public support in three tries schooling on dirt to not much progression as a 67h/60 NEG on debut to 73h/61 in third career start. They’ll give in and try something new with a turf route here. Well-known trainer sports very low statistics with the categories of first timers, dirt to turf switch, and just turf runners in general.

#5 Curbstone 10/1 Solid enough pedigree for a barn that pays well when they have debut runners ready to go. Worth a look on the track.

#6 Annapolis 2/1 High percentage trainer does well in every aspect that applies here except debuting runners to a route on turf. The winning percentage shoots up immensely for Pletcher’s runners that switch to dirt 2nd or 3rd start after a turf debut. Makes you wonder if this is just a prep race for a runner destined to be on the main track. Vulnerable if he goes off this short in a full field.

#7 Irish Sea 15/1 Triggered the 74/56h PLUN on debut with the “Plunge Line” designation often alerting us to runners that may not have given an honest first effort and are eligible to dramatically improve with a better distribution of energy next out. Move to less stressful turf could arguably offer him a chance to do this but wouldn’t say Honor Code foals have been overly excited as a group to see the green stuff. Nevertheless, really solid trainer statistics for a lot of categories that apply to today’s changes.

#8 Nyquest Nix 5/1 Has a right to move forward second out after connections had the confidence to try two turns on debut to a 59/69. $325k purchase from an above average sire.

#9 Ohtwoohthreefive 3/1 68h/71 turf sprint debut to a 59/69h routing second out. Rivals from first couple have come back to look like solid company so far. No reason to doubt as a legitimate contender here.

#10 Beloved Warrior 8/1 Risks taking too much money for a very high percentage trainer who doesn’t excel in this particular spot at 0/21 1st on turf and 0/9 debuting at a mile+. Good turf dam and a bit more average on the sire’s side.

Horizontal Wagers If the Pletcher runner indeed goes off a heavy favorite here, I see no reason to include spreading with others (whether for or against). Take a look at her on track and if you’re a believer she’s the class of the field, go ahead and single the #6 because why bother spreading elsewhere off that assessment. With intention being a question mark for me, however, I’m looking to toss and spread elsewhere.

Must Use: 9-8 Fringe Adds: 5-2-7-10

Race 7 – Dirt – 7 Furlongs $100k Maiden Special Weight for 2YOs

#1 Trafalgar 10/1 Breezed well at 2YO sale prompting $310k purchase price and comes in off bullet work. Would have preferred a slower maintenance work or two before trying competition. Debut runners run some risk of not liking the inside breaking between the rail and a full field of rivals for the first time. 10/1 is as fair a line as any I suppose.

#2 Classic Causeway 6/1 Solid enough pedigree, connections not overly successful in this spot but can be competitive. Runners that have worked in the morning close to race distance are often worth a look.

#3 Ten Gauge 5/1 73/67h NEG catching a muddy track on debut. 2nd of Top 2 that were well clear of an inferior group. Has a right to move forward after missing a COMP designation by 1 ½ points on debut but now catching a fast track (as far as the forecast looks at the time of writing) with dirt sprint success on both sides of the family in a small sample size thus far.

#4 Misbehaved 7/2 Expensive purchase sports excellent pedigree and connections. No reason to fade without a clocker report to suggest so.

#5 Olympian 6/1 Feels like a prep before stretching runner out or switching surfaces according to pedigree.

#6 Jurkovec 20/1 72h/61h NEG holds the designation for a dirt sprinter not likely to improve in their 2nd career start anywhere close to what a COMP-type runner would.

#7 Atlantic Dancer 30/1 $400k purchase shares a full sibling that flashed good speed on turf and a half that briefly ran well on the Triple Crown trail. Hall of Fame trainer’s winners have been a bit few and far between last few years. Still, holds some long bomb appeal as an option a step or two cheaper than the ALL button.

#8 Galt 4/1 His sister Songbird needs no introduction and I really don’t know how you can not include this one based on that alone.

#9 Tiz Eternal 15/1 Pedigree solid enough for this spot and while the trainer/owner combo isn’t real consistent, they are the same team that campaigned Tiz The Law to Belmont and Travers Stakes wins last year.

#10 Brigadier General 5/1 Has flashed heavy speed thus far off an 81h/73 NEG debut that produced a regression to 80/64 2nd out. Will get to run outside in the clear here but needs to find a way to relax a bit better and finish out strong.

Horizontal Wagers While Cary’s research led to the important discovery of the COMP and NEG patterns for assessing lightly-raced runners, unfortunately we don’t currently offer metrics on first time starters. Most of this field is comprised of debut runners so consult your usual resources for assessing these types to go along with the comments I felt worth mentioning.

Must use: 8-4-3 Fringe Adds: 10-9-1 Deep Toss-Ins: 2-7

Race 8 – Inner Turf – 8.5 Furlongs $200k Grade III Saranac Stakes for 3YOs

#1 Public Sector (GB) 7/5 Moves off a 66h/76h after a big 4F boost on today’s inner turf track and boasts a recent PLOW, a positive indicator of future turf success. Should be flying late.

#2 Like The King 6/1 Ships in as a versatile type after building positive moves on synthetic going REV to NPT to a Top Lifetime Final victory. Hasn’t been quite as powerful switching to turf but does have a 2 back PLOW to work off of.

#3 He’spuregold 15/1 Triggered a 58/74 TDL 2 back with the Turf Decline Line being the ultimate form cycle pattern for turf. This is the point where a turf runner has really figured things out energy distribution-wise and future success on the green is very likely. Connections are feeling good after two wins looking to bump up the competition here for this runner. Hasn’t run without Lasix in a while so there’s a concern there.

#4 Never Surprised 8/5 Forward-running winner in first couple before missing at Gulfstream but today’s track configuration will be a bit more like those Aqueduct spins. Short field today gives him a solid chance for a clean try at wiring the field.

#5 Founder 4/1 Has a lot of dirt experience with most of those running lines coming back a negative dirt spread. Most dirt runners prompt faster 4F Figures than Final Figures due to the fundamental make-up of a dirt race so this is one you shouldn’t be surprised to see run well on turf off those dirt numbers. Bit of a pop in form last out prompting a 74/77h victorious in stakes debut. Waters get deeper here but is in right hands to give an honest shot at continuing to move forward. Those “right hands” also come with the risk of being overbet, though.

#6 Mohs 12/1 Good turf spread in first route going 59h/77 with a REV (Reversal) in first dirt route. On a runner-to- runner comparison, although the #5 ran a point faster Final Figure at the same trip and track as this one, Mohs came within that point with a turf spread of +8 compared to the #5’s +3h. On turf, we’re okay backing runners with slower Final Figures if they have meaningfully better turf spreads to back it up. With the double-digit odds and bigger turf spread, #6 looks to be an immensely better option than the #5 if we’re wanting to include one of the Monmouth runners. Question of responding to losing Lasix.

Horizontal Wagers Consider the comments on #6 compared to the #5 not an argument for a great contender in this race, but included to be more of a lesson on how I credit turf runners for having a bigger turf spread than for having a bigger Final Figure. In the end, not much value in this race with strong co-favorites that cover two different race flows.

Must Use: 1 Fringe Adds: 4 Deep Toss-Ins: 6-3-2 Race 9 – Turf – 8.5 Furlongs $90k Allowance for NY-Bred F&M 3YOs & Up

#1A Cara’s Dreamer 3/1 Moved along pretty incrementally from 53h/66h when going back to turf in April to a 59h/70h 5 races later in last. Only thing better than a runner moving forward is one doing it incrementally over several races.

#2 Electric Youth 5/1 65/68 at this trip before triggering REV on dirt so held correct form to be running back on turf here. Concerning one of the only times she didn’t pass rivals was on this course against many of today’s rivals. Morning line seems a little short.

#3 Lookin To Fly 8/1 Sprinted for a while setting a foundation and was happy to see two turns triggering a 58h/69h PLOW victory although it came against straight maidens.

#4 Tax Me Naught 20/1 Forward-type dirt invader from Finger Lakes isn’t listed as a Main-Track-Only but wouldn’t surprised at a scratch. There’s not much here for turf pedigree and she’s doing just fine with what she’s been doing.

#5 Golden Oldie 10/1 Shipper has maintained pretty reserved 4Fs and has made good progression with the Final Figures over time. Barn competitive enough shipping in here to consider on deep tickets.

#6 Just OK Is Not OK 8/1 2 back 65/70h victory at Belmont but didn’t handle winners well regressing to 65h/64 at today’s trip and track against a handful of today’s rivals. If given excuse, repeating the run from 2 back can be competitive today but would prefer others with a better turf spread in comparison.

#7 Freedom Machine 8/1 Consistently around 70 Final on the NYRA circuit since triggering PLOW before the break. Should be competitive enough here to be including thinking we won’t have a problem getting around that 8/1 or better.

#8 Infringement 15/1 Although slow, was on path to evening out dirt form before reverting right back to being forward and quitting. Appreciated switch to turf much more going 69/72 sprinting on the surface switch. Could possibly appreciate another change moving to two turns now and maybe getting a race flow that gets her more prominently-placed. Can see some appeal here if looking for a bomb longshot.

#9 Beyond Brown 20/1 Runner doesn’t have very good control on how she exerts her energy very often giving too much too early regardless of the surface. Needs to flash a serious turnaround here for contention.

#10 English Breeze 5/2 Putting up Figures that would win today right out of the gate back in 2019 on debut. Opened 2021 after 15 months off with a COMP on dirt and combo’d that to a PLOW to turf. Slightly better than the Belmont running line from ’19 so if we transfer form to Saratoga we should be looking at the top contender here.

Race 9 Wagers #10 to WIN at 5/2 or better

$1 Trifecta 10 with 1,7,8 with 1,2,3,5,7,8 ($15) $0.50 Trifecta 1,7,8 with 10 with 1,2,3,5,7,8 ($7.50)

Horizontal Wagers Must Use: 10 Fringe Adds: 1A-7 Deep Toss-Ins: 8-5

Race 10 – Dirt – 6.5 Furlongs $103k Allowance NW1X for 3YOs & Up

#1 Tuggle 8/1 79h/72h could translate well to Saratoga here with the tighter turns than Belmont while drawing the rail in a field where runner’s 4F position is near the top. I’m good with 6/1 or better trying to steal the race with Irad aboard here.

#2 Wow Brown 20/1 Did not handle the slop last out going very forward 82h/68 after being fine with a wet track 2 races prior at an 80/75. Current condition is a question mark but has been known to steal a race here and there and gets a fast track on a tighter configured track for the first time this year. Might be worth a look on deeper tickets.

#3 Ducale 5/2 Solid 79/75h COMP debut led to 2nd out victory when allowed to trigger a SOFT win at 76h/73h. Likely remains in good condition here to face winners.

#4 Marching 15/1 70/59 NEG turned around quickly after a ship to a 79h/73 DTOP. Needs to keep moving forward without the foundation that many rivals possess.

#5 Rejected Again 30/1 72/69h after a turf route stint. Pretty forward on most old dirt sprints so the conditioning of some less stressful turf routes seemed to help train up runner a bit. Needs improve a bit here but does offer plenty long odds to match that demand.

#6 Olympiad 8/1 69/66h COMP debut to 72h/73 REV winner 2nd out. Can certainly be in the thick of it come stretch time but odds need to hold a bit here as $700k purchase could be a bit vulnerable on the 4F Figure side of this race flow.

#7 Hoopla 30/1 78/73h NEG winner after taking the ultimate drop. Not a bad running line and could be considered a tier better than the ALL button here. Can easily fold to stress of facing runners that won’t yield early like that last claiming contest.

#8 Baby Yoda 6/1 75/73 SOFT fits right in with many others here as a running line that can contend for victory.

#9 Crowded Trade 5/1 Prompted 77h/72h NPT in the slop when breaking through a longer distanced DTOP at Pimlico. Did well to ignore kickback when behind many rivals and run on to trigger that positive conditioning move to move forward off of.

#10 Hometown 4/1 Slop carried to 68/75 after compressed 72h/70 at Belmont. Runner has gotten used to a little longer distances calmly distributing energy evenly throughout. Could be vulnerable here having to set down in cut back against a good amount of speed. Has some late kick should the opportunity present itself but doesn’t appear he can just “take this race for himself” without help from several. Rates as a contender but if he’s too short on price, the value might be in just tossing completely.

#11 Ampersand 50/1 75h/67 a bit lacking as well as all back figs

#12 Stayin’ Out Late 12/1 68/73 NPT routing now has to set down here in a sprint with a pace set-up and clean trip much needed to run into contention.

Race 10 Wagers #1 to WIN at 6/1 or better

Exacta Box 1,3

Horizontal Wagers Must Use: 3-1 Fringe Adds: 8-9-6-2 Deep Toss-Ins: 7-10-12

Race 11 – Inner Turf – 11 Furlongs $600k Grade I Flower Bowl Stakes for Older F&M

#1 La Signare (FR) 5/1 Stretches out in excellent form finally stringing together back-to-back 78+ Finals. Improvement came with a boost to 4F rather than improved turf spreads so best shot will be looking to steal this on the front end with tons of late acceleration keyed up beyond her in this one. Strong enough to string together multiple races into a campaign unlike most rivals here which are very selective about when they run.

#2 American Bridge (GB) 12/1 Grade 1 race stateside doesn’t compare well to a Group 3 and other minor stakes across the pond. Likely needs to improve but tough call without Pace Figures available on foreign runners.

#3 War Like Goddess 4/5 There are others that can match the large +25 range turf spreads here but don’t do it on high 70s Final Figures this consistently. Hard to knock the odds-on favorite here but certainly not unbeatable in first Grade 1 try.

#4 My Sister Nat (FR) 5/1 A bit lacking on Final Figure compared to overall work of others and no advantage to the +25 turf spread range as others here accelerate at that rate as well.

#5 Lovely Lucky 20/1 Connections hoping for a breakout performance off the PLOW but would be asking for quite a bit of improvement as that was triggered against much weaker.

#6 Great Island 4/1 Nice combo of a REV on dirt to a PLOW on turf to prepare for longest try in career. Turf spreads have progressed since last year to a spot where a dramatic stretch out in distance may work out in her favor.

#7 Coastana 15/1 She’s a last out winner at this trip triggering a PLOW but needs a big improvement off that 44h/71 to match today’s classy field in her first graded stakes try.

Horizontal Wagers Locked in 3 deep with the 1,3,6. Value hunters feel free to toss that #3 though.

Race 12 – Dirt – 10 Furlongs $1,000,000 Grade I Jockey Club Gold Cup Stakes for 3YOs

#1 Forza Di Oro 8/5 Closed the sophomore season on a pair of DTOPs after a modest start to career figure-wise. Handled a muddy track in professional manner on 4-year old debut and now jumps right into deep waters. Would have liked to see a prep on a dry main track first. Will contend with the loss of Lasix today. Pretty short morning line here. I’ll likely be looking to beat unless he looks amazing in post parade.

#2 Max Player 5/2 Runner had a solid 3-year old season on the Derby trail before an unsuccessful trip to Saudi. Enters off a win and 3rd time back stateside. Has a right to break out here.

#3 Chess Chief 15/1 Runners out of Churchill have done well on the ship to Saratoga over the course of this meet. Concern is that the 78-80 Final range for this runner’s 5-year old season are coming in the best campaign of runner’s career, but the next door rival (who is only third choice on the morning line in a short field) was already beating those Figures when only a lightly-raced 3-year old.

#4 Happy Saver 9/5 Undefeated on a fast track until catching slop in the last, he’ll look for revenge here with 3 straight SOFT wins in a row pointing to the fact this one is professional enough to only exert what’s needed and knows where the wire is at.

#5 Night Ops 5/1 Has worked his way to a more consistent style of -13 to -16 dirt spread and more eligible to handle an extra furlong here than last year’s more forward campaign. Tough rivals today but possesses potential to upset.

#6 Forewarned 50/1 Today’s rivals much tougher than those he failed to be competitive with in previous minor stakes.

Horizontal Wagers Must Use: 4-2 Fringe Adds: 5 Deep Toss-Ins: 1

-- by Dustin Korth Follow me on Twitter @predicteform DMs welcome for questions or comments