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Structure and Properties of the Turkish Hermin Model - Htr5

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Structure and Properties of the Turkish Hermin Model - Htr5 STRUCTURE AND PROPERTIES OF THE TURKISH HERMIN MODEL - HTR5 Dr. John Bradley Eser Pirgan Matur Pınar Yaşar Murat Vardal A. Sema Bahçeci Economic Modeling Department General Directorate of Economic Modeling and Strategic Research State Planning Organization Ankara, July 2009 STRUCTURE AND PROPERTIES OF THE TURKISH HERMIN MODEL - HTR5 This publication is the final report of the Hermin Model Project of the General Directorate of Economic Modeling and Strategic Research, which was initiated in 2006 and executed by the Economic Modeling Department of the State Planning Organization. Contacts for communications A. Sema Bahçeci (Project Coordinator) Dr. John Bradley (Consultant) State Planning Organization EMDS - Economic Modeling and Economic Modeling Department Development Strategies Necatibey Cad. No.108 14 Bloomfield Avenue, Dublin 8, Ireland Phone: +90 312 294 60 17 Phone: +353-1-454 5138 Fax: +90 312 294 60 77 Fax: +353-1-497 0001 E-mail : [email protected] E-mail : [email protected] Eser Pirgan Matur State Planning Organization Economic Modeling Department E-mail : [email protected] Pınar Yaşar State Planning Organization Economic Modeling Department E-mail : [email protected] Murat Vardal State Planning Organization Economic Modeling Department E-mail : [email protected] Table of Contents 1. INTRODUCTION .................................................................................................... 1 2. A PORTRAIT OF THE TURKISH ECONOMY: 1987-2006.................................... 3 2.1 GDP and per capita Income....................................................................................................... 4 2.2 The Labour Market ..................................................................................................................... 8 2.3 Sectoral Composition of GDP................................................................................................. 10 2.4 Productivity............................................................................................................................... 11 2.5 Unit Labour Costs .................................................................................................................... 12 2.6 Price Behaviour and Inflation ................................................................................................. 13 2.7 Openness and Trade................................................................................................................ 15 2.8 Public Sector Balances............................................................................................................ 18 3. THE THEORETICAL STRUCTURE OF THE HERMIN MODEL.......................... 20 3.1 Introduction .............................................................................................................................. 20 3.2 Approaches to Policy Modeling.............................................................................................. 20 3.3 One-and Two-sector Small-open-economy Frameworks..................................................... 21 3.4 The Structure of a HERMIN Model.......................................................................................... 22 3.5 The Supply Side of the HERMIN Model.................................................................................. 24 3.5.1 Output Determination ......................................................................................................... 24 3.5.2 Factor Demands................................................................................................................. 26 3.5.3 Sectoral Wage Determination ............................................................................................ 27 3.5.4 Demographics and Labour Supply..................................................................................... 28 3.6 Absorption in HERMIN............................................................................................................. 29 3.7 National Income in HERMIN .................................................................................................... 30 3.7.1 The Public Sector............................................................................................................... 30 3.7.2 The National Income Identities........................................................................................... 30 3.8 The Monetary Sector................................................................................................................ 31 3.8.1 Introductory Remarks......................................................................................................... 31 3.8.2 Types of Monetary Transmission Mechanisms.................................................................. 32 3.8.3 Monetary experiments and monetary neutrality................................................................. 33 4. CALIBRATION OF THE BEHAVIOURAL EQUATIONS ..................................... 35 4.1 Introductory Remarks.............................................................................................................. 35 4.2 Calibration Results for Behavioural Equations .................................................................... 36 i 5. IMPLEMENTING AND TESTING THE HERMIN MODEL.................................... 43 5.1 Introduction .............................................................................................................................. 43 5.2 Checking the Model Structure ................................................................................................ 43 5.3 Projections: External and Policy Assumptions .................................................................... 44 5.3.1 External (or world) Variables.............................................................................................. 44 5.3.2 Internal (or policy) Variables .............................................................................................. 44 5.3.3 Other Exogenous Variables ............................................................................................... 45 5.3.4 Modifications of Time Trends............................................................................................. 45 5.3.5 Behavioural Intercept Adjustments .................................................................................... 46 5.4 The Baseline Projection for 2007-2020 .................................................................................. 46 5.5 Testing the Model with Policy Shocks ................................................................................... 53 5.5.1 A Shock to World Output (OWM)....................................................................................... 53 5.5.2 A Public Employment Shock (LG)...................................................................................... 54 5.5.3 A Shock to Government Investment (IGV)......................................................................... 55 5.5.4 A Shock to All Exogenous Price Levels ............................................................................. 55 5.5.5 Conclusions on Responses to Shocks............................................................................... 56 6. PUBLIC INVESTMENT TRANSMISSION MECHANISMS .................................. 57 6.1 Introduction .............................................................................................................................. 57 6.2 Inserting Public Investment Policies into the Model ............................................................ 57 6.3 Handling Public Physical Infrastructure Impact Analysis ................................................... 60 6.4 Handling Public Policy Human Resources Impact Analysis ............................................... 62 6.5 Handling Public Policy R&D Impact Analysis ....................................................................... 65 6.6 Implications for Equations in HERMIN................................................................................... 67 6.6.1 Manufacturing (T) Sector Effects: ...................................................................................... 67 6.6.2 Market Services (N) Sector Effects:................................................................................... 69 6.6.3 Building and Construction Effects: ..................................................................................... 71 6.6.4 Agriculture (A) Sector Effects:............................................................................................ 72 6.6.5 Non-market Services (G) Sector Effects:........................................................................... 73 7. CONCLUSION ..................................................................................................... 74 REFERENCES ......................................................................................................... 77 APPENDIX 1: FULL LISTING OF THE HERMIN MODEL....................................... 81 APPENDIX 2: MASTER DICTIONARY OF MODEL VARIABLES ........................ 107 APPENDIX 3: TSP DATA GENERATION FILES .................................................. 119 A3.1 External data extraction from AMECO ............................................................................. 119 A3.2 Extraction of Turkish National Accounts Data ................................................................ 120 ii A3.3 Generation of HTR5 Model Database: HTR5DB.TLB ......................................................
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