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The Jon Peddie Research Gaming Market Press Conference

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The Jon Peddie Research Gaming Market Press Conference The Jon Peddie Research Gaming Market Press Conference . All Gaming Hardware Peddie Research Peddie Jon The Gaming Hardware Market From handhelds to simulators Peddie Research Peddie Jon Jon Peddie Research Focus and emphasis on Visualization, Graphics, and forms of reality Consulting and market research - Advisor to industry leaders and investors Bi-weekly report, various Digital Technology Market Studies Product testing and benchmarking Conferences Chasing Pixels, Finding Visual Magic Peddie Research Peddie Jon Jon Peddie Research Communications “Whatever influences a pixel” & peripheral services Image Receiver(s) DVD Audio sensor Processor Local Memory Semiconductor Fabrication Image Front-end Input Video Graphics Display Processor Processor Processor Processor Processor System Memory Primary interest, CPU expertise, and tracking OS Drivers Application General interest, information Peddie Research Peddie Standards gathering, and limited tracking Jon Agenda – Why are we here? Introduce talking points for discussion . Brief history of computer graphics . The gaming platforms . Market size and growth . Thoughts and speculations on the future . Q&A Peddie Research Peddie Jon How long? . When do you think the game developer conference started? . Depending on who you ask, 1997 to 1999. Actually it was 1993 and was the GamePC Consortium, a loose confederation of hardware and software companies Peddie Research Peddie Jon Look How Far We Have Come Lora Croft from 1996 Lora Croft from 2013 In 1996 the best the industry By 2013 it was possible to generate over a could do was an image of 100 million polygons at 60 to 120 times a 100,000 triangles, 30 times a second on screens greater than HD second, on a 640 x 480 screen , Peddie Research Peddie Jon The SAGE terminal 3D on mainframes 1950s to 1960s Wireframe CAD Developments in Conics, Bezier curves, Surface patches, NURBS, lines, Solid History of Computer Modeling, Finite Element Modeling 1970s Developments in Rendering and Photorealism Graphics (Ray-Tracing, Texture Mapping, Voxels Simulators and early animation 3D on Min Computer & Workstations Wireframe CAD 1980s Introduction of the PC It wasn’t a smooth path 3D in the movies VGA to 3DVGA 1990s 3D on game consoles Introduction of 3D games on the PC 2nd gen 3D game consoles Photorealism, Physics, AI 2000s 3rd gen 3D game consoles GPUs 3D on Handheld 3D on Mobile consoles Phones & Tablets Peddie Research Peddie 8th gen 3D game consoles Jon How did we get here? Peddie Research Peddie Jon Jon Peddie Research From this ~ 1945 this From Jon Peddie Research And this Jon Peddie Research 1945 Jon Peddie Research Which would be carried by this… would becarriedby Which First Soviet intercontinental bomber – TU85 Peddie Research Peddie 1949 Jon Jon Peddie Research Led to this to Led Jon Peddie Research First computergraphic terminalfor SAGE ~ 1955 Jon Peddie Research forthis foundations created the Which Jon Peddie Research 2013 Jon Peddie Research Evolution of Computer game Relay-based Zuse Z1 1936 Computers machines As soon as you have a technology, Vacuum someone tries to make a game Tubes Computer chess program 1940 (1947) out of it – mainframes NIM (1951) Kathleen Maher 2007. Tic Tac Toe (1952) Transistors 1960 SpaceWar (1962) Minicomputers VR Integrated Circuits Micro- processors 1970 Microcomputers Arcade Machines Atari - Computer Space (1971) Adventure (1977) Fairchild Channel F Casino Poker, Space Game Consoles Odyssey, and Pro- Test Drive Football 1980 (1976) Personal Computers (1982) Handheld Game Mattel – Football (1976) (3D) Duke Consoles Nukem (1996) Tetris (1994) Peddie Research Peddie 2000 Mobile Computers Jon VR 2 GPU GFLOPS 100000 Are mobile devices catching up to consoles and PCs? PC GPU 10000 Console Mobile 1000 PS4 Xbox OGL ES 3.1 360 PS4 GPU GFLOPSGPU 100 OGL ES 3.0 10 There is no such thing as catching up Xbox Moore’s law serves all platforms OGL ES 1.1 OGL ES 2.0 Only software holds us back 1 OGL ES 1.0 0.1 Peddie Research Peddie 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Jon 2014 Gaming Hardware Market Location based 6% Handhelds Peripherals These are not either-or. 3% 8% $67 Billion Gaming Hardware Market 2014 Gamers have most, if Tablets not all of these machines 11% PC (except maybe arcade) 33% Smart Phones 23% Consoles 16% Android Consoles 0.07% Peddie Research Peddie Jon $22 Billion, 5% CAGR PC Units Market Share 2014 iGPU Mainstream NB Enthusiast DT 42% 1% Performance DT 3% dGPU Mainsream NB dGPU DT 8% Mainstream iGPU Mainstream DT 7% 34% High-end NB 5% Peddie Research Peddie Jon Jon Peddie Research Gaming Software Market $26Billion Market Gaming Software Peripheral PC Gaming Market $6b 1.5% CAGR Keyboards Wired Headsets Wireless Headsets 19% 19% 6% Flight Controllers 2% Speaker Systems Driving Controllers 22% 3% Mice 25% Gamepad/Arcade Controllers 3% Head Tracking / Motion tracking 1% Peddie Research Peddie Jon Traditional TV-based Console Gaming Machines - $11B 3% CAGR Console Units Market Share 2014 Microsoft Sony 38% 47% Nintendo 15% Peddie Research Peddie Jon Traditional Handheld Gaming Consoles $2b -2% CAGR Handheld Units Market Share 2014 Sony Nintendo 33% 67% Peddie Research Peddie Jon New Gaming Hardware Devices Powered by Android Peddie Research Peddie Jon New Handheld Gaming Machines $33 m 50% CAGR $90 Market value ($M) $80 $70 $60 $50 $40 $30 $20 $10 $0 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Peddie Research Peddie Jon Android Consoles We define Android consoles as any device designed to play Android games on TV’s. Shield is really a path maker. Peddie Research Peddie The micro-consoles will have their niche, larger opportunity is on large screens using a gamepad to play. Jon Android Consoles Amazon Fire TV + Controller Gamepop Gamestick Google Android TV plus controller MadCatz Mojo Ouya Razer ForgeTV Shield Portable Shield Tablet + Controller Shield Console Peddie Research Peddie Jon Other Handheld Gaming Machines Check your pocket – you have one Peddie Research Peddie Jon Ave 50% phone users play games (Media Horizons) 84.9% of the 700 top grossing apps were games (Media Research) Peddie Research Peddie Jon Mobile Games Consumers are spending so much time—and money—playing games on smartphones and tablets that Newzoo, a video game research firm, has had to raise its 2014 global revenue forecast from $21.7 billion to $25 billion. The new total is a 43% increase over mobile game revenues recorded for 2013. Peddie Research Peddie Jon Assumptions on Gaming Market Value . The average selling price of a smartphone is $297 . 1 billion smartphones shipped in 2014 . Assume game playing influenced 5% of the purchases . Smartphone gaming market worth $15 billion CAGR 5% Peddie Research Peddie Jon Assumptions on Gaming Market Value . The average selling price of a tablet is $294 . 260 million Tablets shipped in 2014 . Assume game playing influenced 10% of the purchased . Tablet gaming market worth $7.6 billion CAGR 4% Peddie Research Peddie Jon Mobile Games . According to eMarketer, Mobile Game Revenues to Grow 16.5% in 2015, Surpassing $3 Billion. Peddie Research Peddie Jon Game Arcades A boom in the Bay area and elsewhere in the late 1970s and early 1980s – and then banned. “The older generation has no qualms about leaving us with dirty air, dirty water, and 9,000 nuclear warheads, but they worry about whether video games are good for us,” Steve Lisberger (Tron director) Peddie Research Peddie Jon Location Based $4 billion CAGR 2% Does not include Gaming Cafes Peddie Research Peddie Jon Twitch has more than 100 million visitors per month and accounts for a huge amount of Web traffic. In the week ending Feb. 3, for example, Twitch accounted for 1.8 percent of peak U.S. Internet traffic – ranking fourth after Netflix, Google and Apple, and above Hulu, Facebook, and Amazon. In August, Amazone acquired Twitch for $970 Million- CASH Peddie Research Peddie Jon Summary - So What? . The gaming hardware market is huge - $67 Billion - more than Syria’s GNP, and 75 other countries . Gaming software market $26 Billion . New platforms will add new players . Games will be cross-platform . Moore’s law serves all platforms Peddie Research Peddie Jon Be seeing you Chasing pixels – finding Visual Magic [email protected] [email protected] Peddie Research Peddie [email protected] Jon Sponsors Peddie Research Peddie Time to raffle off some prizes Jon .
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