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Nos Experimental Nowcast/Forecast System for the Port of New York/New Jersey (Nyefs): Requirements, Overview, and Skill Assessment

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Nos Experimental Nowcast/Forecast System for the Port of New York/New Jersey (Nyefs): Requirements, Overview, and Skill Assessment NOAA Technical Report NOS OCS 15 _____________________________________________________________________ NOS EXPERIMENTAL NOWCAST/FORECAST SYSTEM FOR THE PORT OF NEW YORK/NEW JERSEY (NYEFS): REQUIREMENTS, OVERVIEW, AND SKILL ASSESSMENT Eugene Wei Manchun Chen Silver Spring, Maryland October, 2002 noaa National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------- U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE National Ocean Service Office of Coast Survey Coast Survey Development Laboratory TABLE OF CONTENTS LIST OF FIGURES ........................................................................................................................ ii LIST OF TABLES......................................................................................................................... iv EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ........................................................................................................... vi 1. INTRODUCTION .......................................................................................................................1 2. NEEDS ANALYSIS AND REQUIREMENTS ASSESSMENT................................................5 3. SYSTEM OVERVIEW .............................................................................................................11 3.1. Data Ingest and Boundary Forcing Generation .........................................................11 3.2. Nowcast Run...............................................................................................................13 3.3. Forecast Run ...............................................................................................................13 3.4. Operational Environment and Scheduling..................................................................15 3.5. System Interruption and Recovery Procedure ............................................................15 4. SEMI-OPERATIONAL NOWCAST/FORECAST SKILL ASSESSMENT ...........................19 4.1. Analysis Method .........................................................................................................19 4.2. Skill Assessment for Water Level Nowcasts..............................................................20 4.3. Skill Assessment for Water Level Forecasts ..............................................................23 4.4. Skill Assessment for Current Nowcasts......................................................................30 Nowcast Current Speed and Direction Skill Assessment at Bergen Point ............30 Nowcast Current Slack Time at Bergen Point .......................................................31 Nowcast Current Speed and Direction at The Narrows.........................................33 Nowcast Current Slack Time at The Narrows .......................................................34 Nowcast Maximum Flood and Ebb Currents at The Narrows...............................35 4.5. Skill Assessment for Current Forecasts ......................................................................36 Forecast Current Speed and Direction Skill Assessment at Bergen Point.............38 Forecast Current Slack Time at Bergen Point........................................................38 Forecast Maximum Flood and Ebb Currents at Bergen Point ...............................39 Forecast Current Speed and Direction at The Narrows .........................................39 Forecast Current Slack Time at The Narrows........................................................42 Forecast Maximum Flood and Ebb Currents at The Narrows ...............................42 5. SUMMARY...............................................................................................................................44 ACKNOWLEDGMENT................................................................................................................44 REFERENCES ..............................................................................................................................45 ii LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1. Map showing New York Harbor and major tributaries...................................................2 Figure 2.1. New York Harbor PORTS stations maintained by NOS...............................................5 Figure 2.2. Water level at Bayonne Bridge; (a) observations and astronomical tide prediction, (b) surface wind observations, and (c) over-laid with model water level nowcast and forecasts. ..............................................................................................................................6 Figure 2.3. Parameters and locations that marine pilots need for navigation.................................7 Figure 3.1. Schematic of the NYEFS system operation function element. .....................................9 Figure 3.2. Station locations available for model system water level output. ..............................12 Figure 3.3. NYEFS nowcast run schedule....................................................................................14 Figure 3.4. NYEFS forecast run schematic flow chart .................................................................15 Figure 4.1. Observed and model nowcast water level time series at the Bayonne Bridge, October 12 - 17, 2000. .....................................................................................................................17 Figure 4.2. Observed and model nowcast water level time series at The Battery, October 12 - 17, 2000....................................................................................................................................18 Figure 4.3. Observed and model forecast water level time series at the Bayonne Bridge, October 12 - 17, 2000. .....................................................................................................................21 Figure 4.4. Observed and model forecast water level time series at The Battery, October 12 - 17, 2000....................................................................................................................................21 Figure 4.5. Observed and model nowcast current speed time series (low-passed) at Bergen Point, October 6 - 11, 2000. .........................................................................................................27 Figure 4.6. Observed and model nowcast current speed time series (low-passed) at The Narrows, August 20 - 23, 2001..........................................................................................................31 Figure 4.7. Observed and model forecast current speed time series (low-passed) at Bergen Point, October 6 - 11, 2000. .........................................................................................................34 iii LIST OF TABLES Table 4.1. Model system water level nowcast skill assessment standard statistics for complete time series at Bayonne Bridge and The Battery. (Note: na = not applicable) ...................18 Table 4.2. High and low water level nowcast skill assessment standard suite statistics at the Bayonne Bridge. (Note: na = not applicable) ....................................................................19 Table 4.3. High and low water level nowcast skill assessment standard suite statistics at The Battery. (Note: na = not applicable)...................................................................................20 Table 4.4. Model system water level forecast skill assessment standard statistics for complete time series (two cycle forecasts) at Bayonne Bridge. (Note: Overall RMSE average: 13.4 cm.) ....................................................................................................................................22 Table 4.5. Model system water level forecast skill assessment standard statistics for complete time series (two cycle forecasts) at The Battery. (Note: Overall RMSE average: 14.3 cm.) ............................................................................................................................................22 Table 4.6. MDL water level forecast skill assessment standard statistics at Sandy Hook. (Note: Overall RMSE average: 21.6 cm.).....................................................................................23 Table 4.7. MDL water level forecast skill assessment standard statistics at Sandy Hook after the correction. (Note: Overall RMSE average: 13.3 cm) .......................................................23 Table 4.8. NYEFS water level forecast and astronomical tide prediction skill assessment standard suite statistics at the Bayonne Bridge and The Battery. (Note: na = not applicable) ........25 Table 4.9. High and low water level forecast skill assessment standard suite statistics at Bayonne Bridge. (Note: na = not applicable) ...................................................................................26 Table 4.10. High and low water level forecast skill assessment standard suite statistics at The Battery. (Note: na = not applicable)...................................................................................26 Table 4.11. Nowcast current speed and direction skill assessment standard suite statistics at Bergen Point, based on 12,384 six minutes interval data. (Note: na = not applicable) .....28 Table 4.12. Skill assessment standard suite statistics for begin and end times of SBE (slack before ebb) and SBF (slack before flood) differences between current observations (at bin 8) and nowcastss (at layer 3) at Bergen Point. (Note: na = not applicable).......................29 Table 4.13. Skill assessment standard
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