Turkey: Background and U.S. Relations
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Turkey: Background and U.S. Relations Jim Zanotti Specialist in Middle Eastern Affairs August 1, 2014 Congressional Research Service 7-5700 www.crs.gov R41368 Turkey: Background and U.S. Relations Summary Several Turkish domestic and foreign policy issues have significant relevance for U.S. interests, and Congress plays an active role in shaping and overseeing U.S. relations with Turkey. This report provides background information on Turkey and discusses possible policy options for Members of Congress and the Obama Administration. U.S. relations with Turkey—a longtime North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) ally—have evolved over time. Turkey’s economic dynamism and geopolitical importance have increased its influence regionally and globally. Although Turkey still depends on the United States and other NATO allies for political and strategic support, its increased economic and military self-reliance since the Cold War allows Turkey relatively greater opportunity for an assertive role in foreign policy. Greater Turkish independence of action and continuing political transformation appear to have been mutually reinforcing—with both led for more than a decade by Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan and the Islamist-rooted Justice and Development Party (AKP). However, it remains unclear how Turkey might reconcile majoritarian views favoring Turkish nationalism and Sunni Muslim values with secular governance and protection of individual freedoms and minority rights, including with regard to Turkey’s Kurdish citizens. The record of U.S.-Turkey cooperation during the Obama Administration has been mixed. To some extent it mirrors the complexities that past U.S. administrations faced with Turkey in reconciling bilateral alignment on general foreign policy objectives with substantive points of disagreement involving countries such as Greece, Cyprus, Armenia, and Iraq. Patterns in the U.S.-Turkey bilateral relationship indicate that both countries seek to minimize damage resulting from disagreements. However, these patterns also suggest that periodic fluctuations in how the two countries’ interests converge may persist. It is unclear how this dynamic might affect the extent to which future U.S. approaches to regional issues involve Turkey, or might affect the countries’ efforts to increase closeness in other facets of their political and economic relationship. Congress has shown considerable interest in the following issues: • U.S.-Turkey cooperation and consultation in the Middle East regarding major regional security issues involving Syria, Iraq, Iran, and Afghanistan; • Difficulties in Turkey’s relations with Israel, prospects of their improvement, and how those might affect U.S.-Turkey relations; • A possible deal between Turkey and a Chinese government-owned company to co-produce a Turkish air and missile defense system, which could have implications for U.S.-Turkey defense cooperation and for Turkey’s political and military profile within NATO; • A potential congressional resolution or presidential statement that could recognize World War I-era actions by the Ottoman Empire (Turkey’s predecessor state) against hundreds of thousands of Armenians as genocide; and • Domestic developments in Turkey in light of major protests in June 2013, apparent power struggles among key actors following subsequent corruption- related allegations, and upcoming elections in 2014 and 2015. Many U.S. policymakers also are interested in the rights of minority Christian communities within Turkey; the currently stalemated prospects of Turkish accession to the European Union (EU); promoting increased trade with Turkey; and Turkey’s role in the Cyprus dispute. Congressional Research Service Turkey: Background and U.S. Relations Contents Introduction and Issues for Congress ............................................................................................... 1 U.S.-Turkey Relations ..................................................................................................................... 5 Overview ................................................................................................................................... 5 Cooperation and Challenges in the Middle East and NATO ..................................................... 6 Strategic Assessment ................................................................................................................. 8 Impact of Public Opinion, Debate, and Reaction ...................................................................... 9 Bilateral and NATO Defense Cooperation .............................................................................. 10 Overview ........................................................................................................................... 10 Afghanistan ....................................................................................................................... 12 China-Turkey Air and Missile Defense Cooperation? ...................................................... 13 Country Overview ......................................................................................................................... 15 Recent Domestic Controversies: Erdogan, the Fethullah Gulen Movement, and the Justice Sector ........................................................................................................................ 16 Broader Concerns Regarding Rule of Law, Civil Liberties, and Secular Governance ............ 22 Domestic Political and Economic Implications: 2014-2015 Elections and Erdogan’s Future ................................................................................................................................... 24 U.S. and European Union Approaches .................................................................................... 25 The Kurdish Issue .................................................................................................................... 27 Economy .................................................................................................................................. 29 Overview of Macroeconomic Factors and Trade .............................................................. 29 Energy Issues ..................................................................................................................... 30 Key Foreign Policy Issues ............................................................................................................. 32 Israel ........................................................................................................................................ 32 Syria ......................................................................................................................................... 35 Iraq ........................................................................................................................................... 38 Iran ........................................................................................................................................... 39 The Crimea Issue—Russia and Ukraine .................................................................................. 41 Possible U.S. Policy Options and Areas of Concern ..................................................................... 42 Influencing Regional Change and Promoting Stability ........................................................... 42 Arms Sales and Military/Security Assistance .......................................................................... 43 Possible “Armenian Genocide Resolution” ............................................................................. 45 Bilateral Trade Promotion ....................................................................................................... 47 Conclusion ..................................................................................................................................... 48 Figures Figure 1. Turkey and Its Neighbors ................................................................................................. 4 Figure 2. Map of U.S. and NATO Military Presence in Turkey .................................................... 12 Figure 3. Major Pipelines Traversing Turkey and Possible Nuclear Power Plants ........................ 32 Congressional Research Service Turkey: Background and U.S. Relations Tables Table 1. Parties in Turkey’s Parliament ......................................................................................... 16 Table 2. U.S. Merchandise Trade with Turkey .............................................................................. 30 Table 3. Significant U.S.-Origin Arms Transfers or Possible Arms Transfers to Turkey .............. 43 Table 4. Recent U.S. Foreign Assistance to Turkey ....................................................................... 45 Appendixes Appendix A. Profiles of Key Figures in Turkey ............................................................................ 50 Appendix B. List of Selected Turkish-Related Organizations in the United States ....................... 54 Appendix C. Historical Context ..................................................................................................... 56 Appendix D. Religious Minorities in Turkey ................................................................................ 57 Appendix E. Additional Foreign Policy Issues .............................................................................. 60 Appendix F. Congressional Committee Reports