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Missiontoplanetearthera the Eart System inthe Missionto PlanetEarthEra July 1993 (NASA-TM-I09892) MODELING THE EARTH SYSTEM IN THE MISSION TO N94-36827 PLANET EARTH ERA (NASA) 140 p Unclas G3/43 0019825 Preparedby Sushel Unninayar Kenneth H. Bergman d Table of Contents Secaon eagt Foreword .................................................................................................................................................................................. iv Executive Summary ................................................................................................................................................................. v 1. Introduction: The Global System ................................................................................................................................... 1 2. Time Scales of Fluctuation and Change ......................................................................................................................... 2 1 Modeling the Global Earth System ................................................................................................................................. 5 3.1. Types of Global System Models .................................................................................................................... 6 3.1.1. Radiative-Convective Models (RCMs) ........................................................................................................ 7 3.1.2. Energy Balance Models (EBMs) ................................................................................................................. 7 3.1.3. Global Climate Models (GCMs) .................................................................................................................. 7 3.1.4. Global Earth System Models (GEMs) ......................................................................................................... 8 3.2. Partitioning the System ................................................................................................................................................ 8 3.3. Modeling Components and Processes of the Global Earth System ........................................................................... 9 3.3.1. The Atmosphere ........................................................................................................................................... 9 3.3.2. Convection, Cloud, and Precipitation Processes ....................................................................................... 19 3.3.3. Radiation and Radiative Properties ............................................................................................................ 23 3.3.4. The Oceans ................................................................................................................................................. 37 3.3.5. The Land Surface and Biosphere ............................................................................................................... 40 3.3.6. The Cryosphere .......................................................................................................................................... 46 3.3.7. Chemical Processes .................................................................................................................................... 49 3.3.8. Almosphere/Ocean -Geosphere Interaction ................................................................................................ 54 4. Simulation and Prediction of the Global Earth System ............................................................................................. 61 4.1. The Forecast/Predictability Problem ......................................................................................................................... 61 4.2 Simulation/Prediction Time Ranges ......................................................................................................................... 61 4.3. Short Range flntraseasonal) ...................................................................................................................................... 62 4.4. Medium Range (Interseasonal and Interannual) ....................................................................................................... 64 4.5. Long Range (Decadal) ............................................................................................................................................... 68 4.6. Simulation/Prediction with Dynamically Coupled Models ...................................................................................... 73 5. The Validation and lntercomparison of Models ......................................................................................................... 83 6. The Use of Global System Models (and Predictions) in Impact Assessments and Policy Guidance .................... 90 7. Data Analysis and Assimilation Requirements ........................................................................................................... 93 8. Future Monitoring and Data Requirements ................................................................................................................ 97 , Mission to Planet Earth and the Earth Observing System ...................................................................................... 101 9.1. Introduction .............................................................................................................................................................. 101 9.2. The Rescoped EOS Program ................................................................................................................................... 102 9.3. Summary .................................................................................................................................................................. 106 10. Concluding Remarks .................................................................................................................................................... 107 Appendices A. Acronyms ................................................................................................................................................................. 111 B. References ................................................................................................................................................................ 113 C. Global Climate Modeling Workshop Participants List ................................................................................. 129 lie planned observing systems, which together with EOS Foreword comprise MTPE, have only been mentioned briefly, with references provided to details in other documents. This report provides a broad overview of global Earth Requirements for observations and long-term monitoring are system modeling in the Mission to Planet Earth (MTPE) era covered throughout the report. The term "MTPE era" is to the multidisciplinary audience encompassed by the Global used in a generic sense to refer to the need for global Change Research Program (GCRP). This audience includes observational coverage with long-term time continuity and a physical scientists, social scientists, and policy-level heavy reliance on remote sensing to fulfill this need; of managers. course, independent supporting, ground-based observations are needed to complement the space-ba._d components of Brevity has been somewhat sacrificed in favor of retaining Mission to Planet Earth. background material so that a soil scientist, biologist, chemist, or economist may obtain a reasonable grasp of how This review is based on presentations and discussions held the atmosphere, the ocean, or radiative processes are handled during the NASA Climate Modeling Workshop of in a global model--without having to read a large collection November 13-15, 1991, in Alexandria, Virginia, and on an of reference material. Thus, the individual specialist may extensive survey of available scientific literature. Over 50 find certain sections overly familiar. This multidisciplinary national and international experts representing virtually all coverage should provide the necessary impetus toward a scientific disciplines participated in the workshop, as well as fuller participation by the seientific disciplines involved in representatives of most major research institutions and and required for the development of the next-generation Federal agencies. global Earth systems models. The efforts of NASA's Office of Mission to Planet Earth The Earth Observing System (EOS)----_e centerpiece of and the -Earth Science Support Office in organizing the MTPE--is covered in some depth to provide the reader with workshop and in preparing and publishing this report are a feel for the next-generation space-baseA instnm_ents, and gratefully acknowledged. what they are intended to deliver. Other operational and |v critical issue of the parameterization of physical processes Executive Summary also receives attention in this section. A major part of the "global Earth system" is composed of the atmosphere (troposphere, stratosphere, and mesosphere), The ability of models to predict the future state of the the hydrosphere (oceans and other important elements of the global Earth system and the extent to which their predictions hydrological cycle such as lakes, rivers, and subterranean are reliable are covered in Sections 4 and 5. Although waters), the land surface and biosphere (soils, vegetation substantial progress has been made over the past 10 or 20 cover, continental fauna and flora, and fauna
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