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Glaciers As a Proxy to Quantify the Spatial Distribution of Precipitation in the Hunza Basin Author(S) :Walter Willem Immerzeel, Francesca Pellicciotti, and Arun B

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Glaciers As a Proxy to Quantify the Spatial Distribution of Precipitation in the Hunza Basin Author(S) :Walter Willem Immerzeel, Francesca Pellicciotti, and Arun B Glaciers as a Proxy to Quantify the Spatial Distribution of Precipitation in the Hunza Basin Author(s) :Walter Willem Immerzeel, Francesca Pellicciotti, and Arun B. Shrestha Source: Mountain Research and Development, 32(1):30-38. 2012. Published By: International Mountain Society DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1659/MRD-JOURNAL-D-11-00097.1 URL: http://www.bioone.org/doi/full/10.1659/MRD-JOURNAL-D-11-00097.1 BioOne (www.bioone.org) is a nonprofit, online aggregation of core research in the biological, ecological, and environmental sciences. BioOne provides a sustainable online platform for over 170 journals and books published by nonprofit societies, associations, museums, institutions, and presses. 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Mountain Research and Development (MRD) MountainResearch An international, peer-reviewed open access journal Systems knowledge published by the International Mountain Society (IMS) www.mrd-journal.org Glaciers as a Proxy to Quantify the Spatial Distribution of Precipitation in the Hunza Basin Walter Willem Immerzeel1,2*, Francesca Pellicciotti2, and Arun B. Shrestha3 * Corresponding author: [email protected] 1 Utrecht University, Department of Physical Geography, PO Box 80115, Utrecht, The Netherlands 2 ETH Zurich, Institute of Environmental Engineering, Hydrology and Water Resources Management, Wolfgang-Pauli-Str. 15, 8093 Zurich, Switzerland 3 ICIMOD, International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development, GPO Box 3226, Kathmandu, Nepal Open access article: please credit the authors and the full source. Accurate quantification of accumulation in the catchment area and the ablation over the the spatial distribution of glacier area for the 50 largest glacier systems in the Hunza precipitation in mountain basin in the Karakoram. Our results reveal a vertical regions is crucial for precipitation lapse rate that equals 0.21 6 0.12% m21, with a assessments of water maximum precipitation at an elevation of 5500 masl. We resources and for the showed that the total annual basin precipitation (828 mm) is understanding of high- 260% higher than what is estimated based on interpolated altitude hydrology, yet it is observations (319 mm); this has major consequences for one of the largest hydrological modeling and water resource assessments in unknowns due to the lack general. Our results were validated by using previously of high-altitude observations. The Hunza basin in Pakistan published studies on individual glaciers as well as the water contains very large glacier systems, which, given the melt, balance of the Hunza basin. The approach is more widely cannot persist unless precipitation (snow input) is much applicable in mountain ranges where precipitation higher than what is observed at the meteorological stations, measurements at high altitude are lacking. mostly located in mountain valleys. Several studies, therefore, suggest strong positive vertical precipitation lapse rates; in Keywords: Precipitation; vertical lapse rate; glaciers; Hunza the present study, we quantify this lapse rate by using glaciers basin; Karakoram; Indus. as a proxy. We assume a neutral mass balance for the glaciers for the period from 2001 to 2003, and we inversely Peer-reviewed: November 2011 Accepted: December model the precipitation lapse by balancing the total 2011 Introduction snow courses, pits, and cores from accumulation zones are also scarce and usually confined to short observation The Indus basin in Pakistan contains the largest periods. continuous irrigation system in the world, and millions of With the advent of remote sensing–derived estimates people are dependent on the food produced in this area of precipitation, such as the Tropical Rainfall (Immerzeel et al 2010; Kreutzmann 2011). The Karakoram Monitoring Mission (TRMM) (Huffman et al 2007), the mountain range plays a crucial role in sustaining the quantification of spatial patterns has improved, but Indus basin’s water resources. Some of the world’s largest strong biases with rain gauges remain. For the entire glacier systems outside the polar regions are found in this Indus basin, TRMM data were bias corrected by using area, and glacial and snow melt are important station data, which showed a significant overall hydrological processes. A key uncertainty in this region, improvement (Cheema and Bastiaanssen 2012). However, as in many mountain ranges in the world, is the spatial the coarse spatial resolution (,25 km) is insufficient in distribution of precipitation: a crucial factor when trying most hydrological basin-scale studies in mountainous to understand high-altitude hydrology. The relation terrain where orographic precipitation plays a major between precipitation and the Asian mountain ranges role. Techniques have been developed to downscale remains poorly defined due to remoteness and the lack of TRMM further to a 1-km resolution based on the reliable rainfall networks (Bookhagen and Burbank 2006). response of vegetation (Immerzeel et al 2009b), but this is Over short horizontal distances, precipitation can vary unsuitable in the Karakoram given the sparseness of enormously due to orographic effects, but precipitation vegetation. Therefore, the applicability of TRMM and gauge networks are virtually nonexistent at high altitudes, other satellite-derived data sets in mountainous areas and, even if they exist, they are mostly located in the remains unreliable, owing to the spatial resolution and valley bottoms and have difficulty in capturing snowfall. the poor capacity to detect snowfall when using satellite Snow-accumulation measurements by using snow pillows, sensors. Mountain Research and Development Vol 32 No 1 Feb 2012: 30–3830 http://dx.doi.org/10.1659/MRD-JOURNAL-D-11-00097.1 ß 2012 by the authors MountainResearch In many hydrological studies, simulation models are observed precipitation at Gilgit is only 100 mm/y (Tahir used. These models are forced by precipitation data et al 2011). This is not a recent phenomenon; Ferguson observed at precipitation gauges located in valleys (Singh (1984) also concluded that observed discharges in the and Bengtsson 2004; Rees and Collins 2006; Singh et al Hunza cannot be explained by precipitation observed in 2006; Immerzeel et al 2011). Precipitation measurements Gilgit. Although much less extreme, this is further are subject to large systematic errors that can add up to supported by a reported mismatch between precipitation 30% and even more in those cases in which a significant and observed runoff for the entire Upper Indus Basin part of precipitation falls in the form of snow and (Immerzeel et al 2009a). undercatch prevails (Rubel and Hantel 1999; Cheema and We concluded that satellite-derived precipitation Bastiaanssen 2012). In addition, valley stations in estimates and uncorrected precipitation gauge mountain regions are generally not representative for observations are unsuitable to force glaciohydrological basin precipitation because of strong vertical models in water resource assessment studies in precipitation lapse rates. Several regional studies show mountainous regions at the small to intermediate that this is particularly valid for the Karakoram. During spatial scales. There is a strong need for robust an expedition in 1974–1975, The Baltura Investigation correction methods of precipitation time series that do Group already observed 1000–1300 mm of annual snow not depend on expensive field campaigns in accessible accumulation in the accumulation zone of the Batura terrain. glacier and reported a factor 10 difference between valley In this article, we propose such a method by using the precipitation and what was observed in the accumulation glacial mass balance as a proxy to estimate vertical lapse zone (The Batura Glacier Investigation Group 1979). rates in precipitation in the Hunza basin in the Goudie et al (1984) also identified this difference and Karakoram. We optimized vertical precipitation lapse estimated that total precipitation in the glacier source rates until ablation and accumulation in the catchment areas in the Hunza basin are in the order of 1000– areas of the 50 largest glacier systems in the basin 2500 mm/y. Winiger et al (2005) combined in situ corresponded to average observed glacial mass balances. measurements of snow depth and water equivalent, This lapse rate can be used as a first-order remotely sensed data on snow cover, and runoff approximation of the required correction of characteristics to estimate the vertical spatiotemporal precipitation time series. This approach can be applied distribution of precipitation. They concluded that in similar glacierized regions and can contribute to an precipitation at 5000-m elevation in the Western improved understanding of hydrological processes due Karakoram can be a factor 6 higher than what is observed to a more reliable forcing. It is expected that an at valley stations. approximation of the vertical precipitation
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