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Monitoring Report 1.4.12 - 31.3.13 Braintree District Council Local Development Framework Monitoring Report 1.4.12 - 31.3.13 Published February 2014 Contents Introduction 1 Map of Braintree District 2 Population in Braintree District 3 Health and Life Expectancy 13 Ethnicity, Country of Birth and Religion 16 Marital Status and Household Composition 17 Parish Population and Dwelling Stock 18 Economy and Unemployment 19 Skills, Qualifications and Education 25 Business floorspace , jobs density, commuting and employment 31 Employment and jobs 34 Business stocks 43 Self employment 44 Business Development 45 Town Centres 51 Hotel Bedrooms 53 Housing 55 Cultural Heritage 90 Environmental Quality 92 Allotments 96 Transport and Spatial Connectivity 98 Policy Performance Conclusions 100 Appendices: Appendix 1: Saved and Expired Local Plan Review Policies Appendix 2: Schedule of housing sites included in assessment of Five Year Supply 2014-2019 Appendix 3: Schedule of housing sites included in assessment of supply 2013-2026 Appendix 4: Review of LDF Core Strategy Monitoring Framework Table 3 Performance Targets and Measures Braintree District Council Local Development Framework Annual Monitoring Report 2012 Detailed Contents Schedule Page Figure 1 Map of Braintree District 2 Table 1 Population of Braintree District June 2012 3 Population age structure, Braintree District compared Table 2 3 with Essex, East of England and England averages Population and number of dwelling by Ward 2011, and Table 3 4 estimated population by Ward 2012 Braintree District population change by year 2001/02 to Table 4 5 2011/12 Components of estimated population change Braintree Table 5 5 District 2001-2012 Braintree District population trend, 2001-2012, Figure 2 6 components of change Summary of the estimated main migration flows into and Table 6 7 out of Braintree District mid-2010 to mid-2011 Average annual projected change (‘000) to 2012 Table 7 according to past ONS population projections, and 8 estimated change in ONS revised midyear estimates Edge Analytics population projections for Braintree Figure 3 9 District to 2033, Phase 3 scenarios Phase 3 scenario outcomes, Greater Essex Table 8 9 Demographic Forecasts Braintree District population change 2010/2012: ONS Table 9 2010 based projections compared with ONS estimates of 10 actual change Projected dwelling supply, Braintree District Council AMR Table 10 11 housing trajectories 2011 and 2013 Demand for dwellings: Edge Analytics Economic R Table 11 Scenario compared with East of England Forecasting 12 Model Baseline Forecasts Projected demand for dwellings Braintree District: Edge Figure 4 Analytics Economic R Scenario compared with East of 12 England Forecasting Model Baseline Forecasts Percentage of children in Braintree District in Reception Table 12 Year who were underweight, healthy weight, overweight 13 and obese Percentage of children in Braintree District in Year 6 who Table 13 13 were underweight, healthy weight, overweight and obese Table 14 Ethnic group, 2011 16 Table 15 Country of birth, 2011 16 Braintree District Council Local Development Framework Annual Monitoring Report 2012 Table 16 Religion of residents, 2011 16 Table17 Marital status, 2011 17 Table 18 Household composition, 2011 and change 2001-2011 17 Table 19 Population and dwelling stock by parish, 2011 18 Economic Activity Braintree District March 2011, and Table 20 19 change 2001-2011, number of persons Economic activity rate 2001 and 2011, Braintree District Figure 5 19 compared with regional and England averages Table 21 Labour supply 2012/2013 20 Figure 6 Economic activity rate trend 2004/05 to 2012/13 20 Percentage unemployment, 2012/2013: model based Table 22 21 compared with claimant count based Table 23 Claimant count unemployment trend 2012/2013 21 Claimant count unemployment Braintree District January Figure 7 21 2012 – October 2012 Figure 8 Quarterly claimant count unemployment 2006 – 2013 22 Table 24 Job Seekers Allowance claimants April 2013 22 Claimant count unemployment rate 2008–2012, Figure 9 22 Braintree District; East of England Region, Great Britain Number of Job Seekers Allowance Claimants Braintree Figure 10 23 District by gender, 2011-2013 Figure 11 Essex Districts: unemployment rate as at April 2013 23 Change in number of Job Seekers Allowance claimants Figure 12 24 Essex Districts April 2012 to April 2013 Table 25 Age and Duration of unemployment 24 Long term unemployment, trend in Braintree District Figure 13 25 December 2007 to September 2013 Table 26 GCSE and equivalent results 2011/2012 25 Educational attainment at A/AS examination level or Table 27 26 equivalent (Level 3) for pupils living in Braintree District Table 28 Qualifications of residents aged 16-64, 2012 27 Residents aged 16-64, with qualifications at level NVQ4 Table 29 27 and above, 2004-2012 Average size of 1-teacher classes, Maintained Primary Table 30 29 schools Braintree District Council Local Development Framework Annual Monitoring Report 2012 Average size of 1-teacher classes, Maintained Table 31 29 Secondary schools Table 32 Business floorspace Braintree District March 2012 30 Table 33 Business floorspace Braintree District 2009-2012 30 Table 34 Job density 2011 30 Table 35 Job density 2001-2011 31 Job density 2011; Essex Districts and other neighbouring Table 36 31 districts Essex Districts, Net commuting: percentage change in Table 37 32 population aged 16-74 during workday Economic activity 2011, Braintree District compared to Table 38 32 regional and England averages Economic activity Braintree District, 2011 and 2001, Table 39 33 proportion of persons aged 16-74 by economic category Table 40 Industry of employment of residents, March 2011 34 Table 41 Employment by occupational group, 2011 34 Table 42 ABI analysis: change in employee jobs 2001-2008 35 Table 43 Change in employment structure 2001-2008 35 Forecast future change in employment Braintree District Figure 14 according to Baseline; High Migration, and Lost Decade 36 and Beyond scenarios, 2010 to 2031, Spring 2013 report Summary of forecast total employment in Braintree Table 44 District, East of England Forecasting Model Spring 2013 36 East of England Forecasting Model Baseline Forecasts Figure 15 for Braintree District according to three recent reports 37 from the model: Autumn 2010; Spring 2012, Spring 2013. East of England Economic Forecasting Model Baseline Table 45 Scenario, Spring 2013; Braintree compared with other 37 Essex Districts 2011-2031, forecast employment change EEFM Spring 2013 Baseline Forecasts of Employment Figure 16 38 (‘000 jobs): Essex Districts compared EEFM Spring 2013 Baseline Forecasts of Employment Figure 17 39 Forecast change by sector Braintree District 2001-2031 Estimated and forecast change by sector, Braintree Table 46 40 District Estimated employment change by sector, Braintree Figure 18 41 District, 2001-2011 Forecast employment change by sector 2009-2026, Figure 19 42 Braintree District (000s) Braintree District Council Local Development Framework Annual Monitoring Report 2012 Business stocks; Number of active enterprises in 2012, Figure 20 43 Essex Districts Change in number of active enterprises 2009-2012, Figure 21 43 Essex Districts Percentage change in number of active enterprises Figure 22 44 2009-2012, Essex Districts Braintree residents who were self employed, 2004-2012, Table 47 44 and compared with regional average Table 48 Non-residential floorspace completed 2012/2013 45 Location of business development in Braintree District by Table 49 46 Use Class, 2012/2013 Location of business development in Braintree District by Figure 23 46 Use Class, 2012/2013 Table 50 Net retail development: 2008-2013 47 Table 51 Net office development: 2008-2013 47 Table 52 Net B1/B2/B8 development: 2008-2013 47 Net change in floorspace from development, Braintree Figure 24 47 District, 2008 to 2013 Potential sq m of non-residential floorspace (with Table 53 48 planning permission) identified by Use Class, 2013 Location of potential non-residential floorspace (with Table 54 49 planning permission), 2013 Location of potential non-residential floorspace (with Figure 25 49 planning permission), 2013 Total remaining land identified for non-residential uses as Table 55 50 at 31st March 2013 Braintree, Halstead and Witham town centres: Table 56 51 Development of 'town centre uses' floorspace 2012/13 Braintree, Halstead and Witham town centres: Table 57 51 Development sites: Use Class A1, 2013 Braintree, Halstead and Witham town centres: Table 58 51 Development sites: Use Class A2, 2013 Braintree, Halstead and Witham town centres: Table 59 51 Development sites: Use Class B1a, 2013 Braintree, Halstead and Witham town centres: Table 60 51 Development sites: Use Class D2, 2013 Table 61 Vacant town centre retail units 2007-2012 52 Figure 26 Vacant town centre retail units 2007-2012 52 Vacant town centre retail units 2001-2012, Braintree Table 62 53 Witham and Halstead Vacant town centre retail units 2001-2012, Braintree Figure 27 53 Witham and Halstead Tenure of Households in Braintree District, 2011 Census Table 63 55 data Braintree District Council Local Development Framework Annual Monitoring Report 2012 Table 64 Estimated dwelling stock Braintree District 2012 55 Estimated dwelling stock Essex Districts 2001-2011, Table 65 56 according to the Census Increase in number of dwellings, 2001-2011, Essex Figure 28 56 Districts Percentage increase in dwellings, 2001-2011, Essex Figure 29 57 Districts East of England local planning authorities: Net housing Figure 30 58 supply 2001-2011 East
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