DOCSLIB.ORG

The Policy and Science of Rocket Emissions

Total Page：16

File Type：pdf, Size：1020Kb

Download full-text PDF Read full-text
The Policy and Science of Rocket Emissions CENTER FOR SPACE POLICY AND STRATEGY APRIL 2018 THE POLICY AND SCIENCE OF ROCKET EMISSIONS MARTIN ROSS AND JAMES A. VEDDA THE AEROSPACE COrpOraTION IMAGE COURTESY ULA © 2018 The Aerospace Corporation. All trademarks, service marks, and trade names contained herein are the property of their respective owners. Approved for public release; distribution unlimited. OTR2018-00493 MR A TIN ROSS Dr. Martin Ross is senior project engineer for commercial launch projects. In that capacity, he leads research concerning the effects of space systems on the stratosphere—mainly, the impact of rocket-engine emissions on stratospheric ozone and climate forcing. He is developing new interagency strategies to better understand the scientific, economic, and policy implications of these phenomena. Ross conceived and implemented the Rockets Impacts on Stratospheric Ozone (RISO) program for the Air Force, managing simultaneous airborne sampling and ground-based remote sensing of rocket plumes. He also served as mission scientist for the joint NASA/NOAA/Air Force Atmospheric Chemistry of Combustion Emissions Near the Tropopause (ACCENT) project and is a contributor to the World Meteorological Organization’s Quadrennial Scientific Assessment of Ozone Depletion reports. He has written more than 50 publications and holds a Ph.D. in planetary and space physics from UCLA. JamES VEDDA Dr. James A. Vedda is senior policy analyst in the Center for Space Policy and Strategy. In this role, he performs analyses on national security, civil, and commercial space issues for NASA, the Federal Aviation Administration, the Department of Commerce, the Air Force, and the National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency. Vedda is the author of two books: Choice, Not Fate: Shaping a Sustainable Future in the Space Age (2009), and Becoming Spacefarers: Rescuing America’s Space Program (2012). He holds an M.A. in science, technology, and public policy from George Washington University and a Ph.D. in political science from the University of Florida. ABOUT THE CENTER FOR SPACE POLICY AND STRATEGY The Center for Space Policy and Strategy is dedicated to shaping the future by providing nonpartisan research and strategic analysis to decisionmakers. The Center is part of The Aerospace Corporation, a nonprofit organization that advises the government on complex space enterprise and systems engineering problems. Contact us at www.aerospace.org/policy or [email protected] Abstract Combustion emissions from rocket engines affect the global atmosphere. Historically, these impacts have been seen as small and so have escaped regulatory attention. Space launch is evolving rapidly however, characterized by anticipated growth in the frequency of launches, larger rockets, and employment of a greater variety of propellants. At some future increased launch rate, the global impacts from launch emissions will collide with international impera- tives to manage the global atmosphere. This could result in regulation of launch activity. The regulatory uncertainty is complicated by knowledge gaps regarding rocket emission impacts. Looking ahead to the coming decade, the global launch industry and its stakeholders should encourage, facilitate, and fund objective scientific research on rocket emissions and engage- ment with international regulators to define metrics. Such a policy would forestall unwar- ranted regulation, ensure regulatory impartiality across the global launcher fleet where regu- lation is unavoidable, and facilitate launch industry freedom of action in crafting responses to environmental concerns. Fool Me Twice, Shame on Me With hindsight, we can appreciate the formidable tech- Concerns about atmospheric rocket emissions are nical, geopolitical, and national security obstacles that analogous to early recognition of space debris, which prevented early resolution of the problem. Regardless continues to be a policy challenge today. Debris accu- of the cause of early inaction, space debris was not ad- mulation in valuable orbits is widely acknowledged to dressed and the situation evolved into a classic example present an existential risk to continuing space opera- of “the tragedy of the commons.” Half a century ago a tions and industry growth.1 Nevertheless, policy and potential problem presented itself, but a lack of urgency practice to decisively deal with the problem are still in prevented good policy from being established when the the formative stages, even as technology to reduce the problem was in its nascent stage. The result is that some risk via active disposal is on the horizon. If the potential regions of Earth’s orbital space present hazardous con- magnitude of the space debris problem had been recog- ditions due to debris accumulation. nized early in the space age, and coordinated interna- Today, launch vehicle emissions present a distinctive tional actions had been taken at the time to address it, echo of the space debris problem. Rocket engine exhaust space debris may not have become the significant risk emitted into the stratosphere during ascent to orbit ad- we face today. versely impacts the global atmosphere. Rocket exhaust 2 has two main effects on the atmosphere. First, chemical space planners expect. This predicament was first point- reactions deplete the ozone layer.2 This has, historically, ed out in the context of the economics of launch vehicle been the main concern about rocket emissions because reusability.9 The timing of this “tipping point” will be solid rocket motors inject chlorine directly into the determined by the aggressiveness of international regu- ozone layer and chlorine has been subject to interna- lators as they react to increasing launch rates and great- tional regulation since 1987.3 More recently, a second er visibility of the space industry. concern has come to light.4 Particles injected into the The next section briefly describes how rocket emissions stratosphere absorb and reflect solar energy, changing affect the atmosphere and could attract the attention of the flow of radiation in the atmosphere, heating the regulators. This is followed by suggested actions to an- stratosphere and cooling the surface, respectively. This ticipate and mitigate this risk. radiative forcing has the effect of changing the Earth’s albedo and so the amount of solar energy injected into Launch Vehicle Emissions and the Global the atmosphere. These thermal changes also deplete the Atmosphere ozone layer.5 Launch vehicle emissions disturb the atmosphere.4,10 Rocket emissions have never been a priority for the sci- Emissions into the troposphere (the layer nearest to the entific community. The literature is sparse and the pres- ground) are not important, aside from transient launch ent state of understanding of rocket emissions is weak. and landing site air quality concerns that local authori- New fuels such as methane, about which no research ties already deal with. Emissions into the stratosphere has been done and which is a strong absorber of infra- are very different. The stratosphere is dynamically 6 red radiation, will soon see wide use, further reducing isolated from the troposphere beneath so that emis- the accuracy of estimates. Nevertheless, the meager sions in this layer can accumulate. Also, it contains the amount of available research permits an assumption ozone layer so that the stratosphere has been the focus that present day ozone depletion and radiative forcing of strong international regulation since 1987 through caused by launch emissions are likely small components the Montreal Protocol on Substances That Deplete the of the sum of human influences on the atmosphere. Ozone Layer.3 Although rocket impacts to the global atmosphere are The stratosphere is a particularly sensitive region into presently insignificant compared to other human ac- which rockets directly inject combustion products— 7 tivities, trends that include plans for airline-like opera- gases and particles—that will have impacts prompting tions, massive LEO communication satellite constella- the attention of policy-makers. The first suggestion tions, and space tourism indicate rocket impacts are that rocket emissions should be regulated appeared in likely to grow, possibly to the point of being considered 1994.11 The primary perturbations to the atmosphere significant. By most estimates and analyses from space from rocket emissions are stratospheric ozone depletion planners, the pace and dimension of launches, and and a change in the atmosphere’s net radiative balance, 8 therefore emissions, will increase in coming years. The a radiative forcing, that results in temperature changes rate of orbital launches nearly doubled in the past de- throughout the atmosphere. Secondary changes include cade, and may accelerate further. If we apply the lessons changes in the pattern of global circulation and cloudi- learned from space debris, now is the time to develop ness, including polar mesospheric clouds.12 and implement policy to mitigate the risks to the natural and operational environments from rocket emissions. While the magnitude and variety of rocket emission impacts are not well known, we can describe the over- Like orbital debris, atmospheric rocket emissions have all picture across the various propellant combinations the long-term potential for risk to undermine efficient, with some confidence. CO2 and H2O emissions, which routine space system operations if left to grow without make up the main portion of all rocket exhaust, are attention. Regulation of launch vehicle emissions will
Load more

Recommended publications
  • Monitoring the Montreal Protocol – Duncan Brack
    12 Monitoring the Montreal Protocol Duncan Brack ○○○○○○○○○○○○○○○○○○○○○○○○○○○○○○○○○○○○○○○○○○ The 1987 Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer is generally regarded as one of the most, if not the most, successful environmental conventions in existence. Not only is it dealing effectively with the problem that it was set up to solve—to phase-out a family of industrially useful, but environmentally damaging, chemicals—but it has provided the international community with a series of valuable lessons in the design and implementation of multilateral environmental agreements (s).1 The development of the protocol’s data reporting and non- compliance systems (the main focus of this chapter) has been an important factor in its success. Ozone depletion Ozone is a molecule comprising three oxygen atoms. It is comparatively rare in the earth’s atmosphere; 90 percent is found in the stratospheric ‘ozone layer’, ten to 50 kilometres above the planet’s surface. The Montreal Protocol was a response to growing evidence of the accumulating damage to the ozone layer caused by the release into the atmosphere of chemical substances known as halocarbons, compounds containing chlorine (or bromine), fluorine, carbon and hydrogen. The most common ozone-depleting substances () were chlorofluorocarbons (s). Stable and non-toxic, cheap to produce, easy to store and highly versatile, s proved to be immensely valuable industrial chemicals, employed as coolants in refrigeration and air conditioning systems, as ‘foam-blowing agents’, and as solvents, sterilants and aerosol propellants. As scientific knowledge developed, other chemicals—halons, carbon tetrachloride, methyl chloroform, hydrochloro- fluorocarbons (s), methyl bromide and bromochloromethane—also came ○○○○ 210 Ver ification Yearbook 2003 to be identified as ozone depleters.
    [Show full text]
  • Residential Air Conditioning and the Phaseout of HCFC-22 What You Need to Know
    Residential Air Conditioning and the Phaseout of HCFC-22 What You Need to Know What Is the HCFC Phaseout? To protect the stratospheric ozone layer, under the U.S. Clean Air Act and the Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer, the United States has phased out the production and import of hydrochlorofluorocarbons (HCFCs) with limited exceptions. By phasing out ozone-depleting substances like HCFCs, we are reducing the risk of skin cancer caused by exposure to UV radiation. In addition, many of these ozone-depleting substances Planning for the Future Is Important are potent greenhouse gases. Even though there is no immediate need for change, you can take steps to keep your system No Immediate Change Is Required running efficiently and keep HCFC-22 in your HCFC-22, commonly referred to as R-22, is used as system. By asking your service technician to a refrigerant in many applications, including check for leaks and perform preventive residential air-conditioning (AC) systems. U.S. maintenance, you can help keep your refrigerant production and import of HCFC-22 ended on January emissions down and reduce the need to 1, 2020, but you may continue to use HCFC-22 in purchase additional HCFC-22. Air conditioning your existing system for as long as necessary. equipment generally runs most efficiently on the HCFC-22 that is recovered and reclaimed, along with type of refrigerant it was designed for, but when HCFC-22 produced prior to 2020, will help meet the the time does come to replace or retrofit your needs of owners of existing HCFC-22 systems.
    [Show full text]
  • (Vocs) in Asian and North American Pollution Plumes During INTEX-B: Identification of Specific Chinese Air Mass Tracers
    Atmos. Chem. Phys., 9, 5371–5388, 2009 www.atmos-chem-phys.net/9/5371/2009/ Atmospheric © Author(s) 2009. This work is distributed under Chemistry the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License. and Physics Characterization of volatile organic compounds (VOCs) in Asian and north American pollution plumes during INTEX-B: identification of specific Chinese air mass tracers B. Barletta1, S. Meinardi1, I. J. Simpson1, E. L. Atlas2, A. J. Beyersdorf3, A. K. Baker4, N. J. Blake1, M. Yang1, J. R. Midyett1, B. J. Novak1, R. J. McKeachie1, H. E. Fuelberg5, G. W. Sachse3, M. A. Avery3, T. Campos6, A. J. Weinheimer6, F. S. Rowland1, and D. R. Blake1 1University of California, Irvine, 531 Rowland Hall, Irvine 92697 CA, USA 2University of Miami, RSMAS/MAC, 4600 Rickenbacker Causeway, Miami, 33149 FL, USA 3NASA Langley Research Center, Hampton, 23681 VA, USA 4Max Plank Institute, Atmospheric Chemistry Dept., Johannes-Joachim-Becherweg 27, 55128 Mainz, Germany 5Florida State University, Department of Meteorology, Tallahassee Florida 32306-4520, USA 6NCAR, 1850 Table Mesa Drive, Boulder, 80305 CO, USA Received: 9 March 2009 – Published in Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss.: 24 March 2009 Revised: 16 June 2009 – Accepted: 17 June 2009 – Published: 30 July 2009 Abstract. We present results from the Intercontinental 1 Introduction Chemical Transport Experiment – Phase B (INTEX-B) air- craft mission conducted in spring 2006. By analyzing the The Intercontinental Chemical Transport Experiment – mixing ratios of volatile organic compounds (VOCs) mea- Phase B (INTEX-B) aircraft experiment was conducted in sured during the second part of the field campaign, to- the spring of 2006. Its broad objective was to understand gether with kinematic back trajectories, we were able to the behavior of trace gases and aerosols on transcontinental identify five plumes originating from China, four plumes and intercontinental scales, and their impact on air quality from other Asian regions, and three plumes from the United and climate (an overview of the INTEX-B campaign can be States.
    [Show full text]
  • Linkages Between the Montreal and Kyoto Protocols
    Linkages between the Montreal and Kyoto Protocols Sebastian Oberthür Prepared for: – Inter-Linkages – International Conference on Synergies and Coordination between Multilateral Environmental Agreements 14, 15 and 16 July, 1999 The Vienna Convention for the Protection of the Ozone Layer of 1985 and its Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer of 1987 are probably the multilateral environmental agreements that have inspired negotiations on the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (FCCC) of 1992 and its Kyoto Protocol of 1997 most. This is not least because the Montreal Protocol is generally considered as one of the most successful cases of international co-operation on environmental issues. The Montreal Protocol started out in 1987 as an instrument to control production and consumption of chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) and halons, two groups of powerful ozone-depleting substances (ODS). It was subsequently adjusted and amended four times in 1990, 1992, 1995 and 1997. Today it determines the world-wide phase-out of most known ODS of a significant potential, including also carbon tetrachloride, methyl chloroform, partially halogenated CFCs (HCFCs) and methyl bromide. By 1996, it had be successful in reducing global production and consumption of these substances by nearly 80% from the level before international controls.1 In comparison to the mature ozone regime, the international co-operation for the protection of the Earth’s climate are still at an early stage. From the adoption of the FCCC, it took Parties more than five years to agree on the Kyoto Protocol that for the first time determines quantified emission limitation and reduction commitments of industrialised countries.
    [Show full text]
  • Equity in the 2015 Climate Agreement Lessons from Differential Treatment in Multilateral Environmental Agreements
    climate law 4 (2014) 50-69 brill.com/clla Equity in the 2015 Climate Agreement Lessons From Differential Treatment in Multilateral Environmental Agreements Christina Voigt Professor, University of Oslo, Department of Public and International Law, Center of Excellence: Pluricourts [email protected] Abstract The success of the negotiations under the adp will depend, among other things, on a common understanding of equitable sharing of efforts and benefits. An equitable climate regime needs to be based on differentiation that is flexible and dynamic and only granted on a temporary basis. Finding reliable yet flexible and dynamic ways for allocating rights and responsibilities accordingly may be the main and toughest task in multilateral environmental treaty-making. This article anslyses differentiation in vari- ous multilateral environmental agreements and identifies ways for differentiating between states that could be helpful in a climate context. Keywords common but differentiated responsibility – equity – multilateral environmental agree- ments (meas) – adp 1 Introduction The Conference of the Parties to the un Framework Convention on Climate Change decided in 2011 to launch the Ad Hoc Working Group on the Durban Platform for Enhanced Action (adp) with a mandate ‘to develop a protocol, another legal instrument or an agreed outcome with legal force under the Convention applicable to all Parties.’1 This negotiating process, which began in 1 Decision 1/CP.17, 2011. © koninklijke brill nv, leiden, 2014 | doi 10.1163/18786561-00402005 Equity in the 2015 Climate Agreement 51 May 2012, is scheduled to end by 2015. The outcome should come into effect and be implemented from 2020 onwards.
    [Show full text]
  • Stratospheric Ozone Protection: 30 Years of Progress and Achievements
    Stratospheric Ozone Protection: 30 Years of Progress and Achievements United States Environmental Protection Agency Office of Air and Radiation 1200 Pennsylvania Avenue, NW (6205T) Washington, DC 20460 https://www.epa.gov/ozone-layer-protection EPA-430-F-17-006 November 2017 Page 2 Stratospheric Ozone Protection 30 Years of Progress and Achievements Stratospheric Ozone Protection: 30 Years of Progress and Achievements Introduction Overexposure to ultraviolet (UV) radiation is a (CFCs), which were widely used in a variety of threat to human health. It can cause skin damage, industrial and household applications, such as eye damage, and even suppress the immune sys- aerosol sprays, plastic foams, and the refriger- tem. UV overexposure also interferes with envi- ant in refrigerators, air conditioning units in cars ronmental cycles, affecting organisms—such as and buildings, and elsewhere. plants and phytoplankton—that move nutrients and energy through the biosphere. Scientific observations of the rapid thinning of the ozone layer over Antarctica from the late In the 1970s, scientists discovered that Earth’s 1970s onward—often referred to as the “ozone primary protection from UV radiation, the strato- hole”—catalyzed international action to dis- spheric ozone layer, was thinning as a result of continue the use of CFCs. In 1987, the United the use of chemicals that contained chlorine States joined 23 other countries and the Euro- and bromine, which when broken down could pean Union to sign the Montreal Protocol on destroy ozone molecules. The
    [Show full text]
  • Equity Lessons from Multilateral Regimes for the New Climate Agreement
    Working Paper EQUITY LESSONS FroM MULTILATERAL REGIMES FOR THE NEW CLIMATE AGREEMENT PAUL JOFFE, DAVID WASKOW, KATE DeANGELIS, WENDI BEVINS, AND YAMIDE DAGNET EXECUTIVE SUMMARY CONTENTS Equity issues will be at center stage in the negotiations for Executive Summary............................................................1 an international climate agreement in 2015. Starting from the moment that the Durban Conference of the Parties Introduction .......................................................................3 (COP) of the United Nations Framework Convention on Lessons Learned: Case Studies .........................................4 Climate Change (UNFCCC) in 2011 launched the nego- Lessons for the Climate Regime Learned tiating process leading to a 2015 agreement, equity has from Multilateral Regimes ................................................16 become a central question in those discussions. The new climate agreement is meant to apply to all Parties, thus Future Research Topics .....................................................21 raising obvious questions about which countries will take Conclusion........................................................................22 what actions and how equity should factor into making Annex................................................................................24 those determinations. The core principles in the UNFCCC References .......................................................................28 of equity and common but differentiated responsibilities and respective
    [Show full text]
  • GHG Protocol: Required Greenhouse Gases in Inventories
    Required Greenhouse Gases in Inventories Accounting and Reporting Standard Amendment February, 2013 Table of Contents Amendments 1 Frequently Asked Questions 4 Appendix: Background Information 5 Required greenhouse gases for inclusion in corporate and product life cycle inventories This Accounting Note amends requirements regarding the greenhouse gases (GHGs) to include in inventories, as well as how the emissions of those GHGs should be reported within inventories. These requirements supersede those in the Greenhouse Gas Protocol Corporate Accounting and Reporting Standard, Revised Edition (2004; ‘Corporate Standard’); Corporate Value Chain (Scope 3) Accounting and Reporting Standard (2011; ‘Scope 3 Standard’); Product Life Cycle Accounting and Reporting Standard (2011, ‘Product Standard’); and all associated sectoral guidance published until 2012. A note on terminology in GHG Protocol Standards The GHG Protocol uses specific terms to connote reporting requirements and recommendations. The term “shall” is used to indicate what is required for a GHG inventory to conform to a given Standard. The term “should” is used to indicate a recommendation, but not a requirement. The term “may” is used to indicate an option that is permissible or allowable. Within the guidance sections of each Standard, the term “required” is used to refer to “shall” statements given elsewhere in the standard. Accounting and Reporting Standard Amendment: Required Greenhouse Gases in Inventories Amendments 1. When using the Corporate Standard, Scope 3 Standard, Product Standard, or any associated sectoral guidance (collectively termed ‘Standards’ in this Amendment), companies: a. Shall account for and report the emissions of all the GHGs required by the UNFCCC/Kyoto Protocol at the time the corporate or product inventory is being compiled.
    [Show full text]
  • Competitive Implications of Environmental Regulation: a Case Study on Dow Chemical Company and I,I,I
    COMPETITIVE IMPLICATIONS OF ENVIRONMENTAL REGULATION: A CASE STUDY ON DOW CHEMICAL COMPANY AND I,I,I by: Susan M. Svoboda CEMP Corporate Environmental Management Program The University of Michigan Ann Arbor, MI 48109-1234 U.S. EPA Cooperative Agreement #CR824410-01 Project Officer: Dr. Alan Carlin Office of Policy, Planning and Evaluation U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Washington, D.C. 20460 Report prepared for: Office of Policy, Planning and Evaluation U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Washington, D.C. 20460 The Management Institute for Environment & Business June 1996 DISCLAIMER Although prepared with EPA funding, this report has neither been reviewed nor approved by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency for publication as an EPA report. The contents do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, nor does mention of trade names or commercial products constitute endorsement or recommendation for use. TABLE OF CONTENTS CASE A .............................................................................................................................................................. 3 INTRODUCTION ........................................................................................................................................... 3 1,1,1 TRICHLOROETHANE......................................................................................................................... 3 Producers of 1,1,1................................................................................................................................
    [Show full text]
  • Experience of the Montreal Protocol: Particularly Remarkable, and Remarkably Particular
    UCLA UCLA Journal of Environmental Law and Policy Title The Experience of the Montreal Protocol: Particularly Remarkable, and Remarkably Particular Permalink https://escholarship.org/uc/item/9ch3w6sk Journal UCLA Journal of Environmental Law and Policy, 19(1) Author DeSombre, Elizabeth R. Publication Date 2000 DOI 10.5070/L5191019217 Peer reviewed eScholarship.org Powered by the California Digital Library University of California The Experience of the Montreal Protocol: Particularly Remarkable, and Remarkably Particular Elizabeth R. DeSombre* I. INTRODUCTION By most accounts, the treaty process for addressing ozone de- pletion is an unqualified success. It has achieved near universal participation, with 170 states party to the Montreal Protocol, and a substantial fraction of those party to the London, Copenhagen, and Montreal Amendments to the Protocol.1 It has fundamen- tally changed the way certain industries conduct their business, already creating in some countries a complete phaseout of cer- tain classes of chemicals. The process itself is particularly impressive. Negotiations be- gan under conditions of uncertainty, over both the existence and extent of environmental harm and the costliness of taking action to mitigate it. The Vienna Convention, the Montreal Protocol, and subsequent amendments have created the ability to adapt to changes in scientific understanding of the problem and its poten- tial solutions. The environment is responding as well. Although it is too soon to expect to see improvement in the ozone layer, measurements indicate that it is deteriorating at a decreasing * Frost Associate Professor of Environmental Studies and Associate Professor of Political Science at Wellesley College. Thanks to Kathryn Litle for research assistance and to Samuel Barkin for conceptual assistance.
    [Show full text]
  • Protecting the Global Atmosphere: Beyond the Montreal Protocal Pamela Wexler
    Maryland Journal of International Law Volume 14 | Issue 1 Article 3 Protecting the Global Atmosphere: Beyond the Montreal Protocal Pamela Wexler Follow this and additional works at: http://digitalcommons.law.umaryland.edu/mjil Part of the International Law Commons Recommended Citation Pamela Wexler, Protecting the Global Atmosphere: Beyond the Montreal Protocal, 14 Md. J. Int'l L. 1 (1990). Available at: http://digitalcommons.law.umaryland.edu/mjil/vol14/iss1/3 This Article is brought to you for free and open access by DigitalCommons@UM Carey Law. It has been accepted for inclusion in Maryland Journal of International Law by an authorized administrator of DigitalCommons@UM Carey Law. For more information, please contact [email protected]. PROTECTING THE GLOBAL ATMOSPHERE: BEYOND THE MONTREAL PROTOCOL Pamela Wexler* I. INTRODUCTION ..... .................................. 1 II. THE OZONE DEPLETION PROBLEM ................... 2 III. THE ROAD TO M ONTREAL .......................... 5 A. Early International Environmental Precedents .... 5 B. Previous Environmental Negotiations ............ 6 C. The Montreal Protocol ........................ 7 1. Substantive Lim its ....................... 8 2. Impetus for Widespread Participation....... 8 IV. THE PROMISE OF THE PROTOCOL: SURMOUNTING OBSTA- CLES TO PREVENTATIVE REGULATION ................ 10 A. Scientific Uncertainty .......................... 10 B. Differential Economic Impacts .................. 12 V. BEYOND THE MONTREAL PROTOCOL .................... 14 A. The Call for More Stringent Controls ........... 15 B. Building on the Protocol....................... 16 C. Unilateral Moves by the United States ........... 17 V I. C ONCLUSION ..................................... 18 I. INTRODUCTION On January 1, 1989, the Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer' entered into force, binding forty-six signa- tory nations to limits on the production and consumption of chemicals believed to be destroying the protective layer of ozone that encircles the earth.
    [Show full text]
  • Reducing Abrupt Climate Change Risk Using the Montreal Protocol and Other Regulatory Actions to Complement Cuts in CO2 Emissions Mario Molinaa, Durwood Zaelkeb,1, K
    Reducing abrupt climate change risk using the Montreal Protocol and other regulatory actions to complement cuts in CO2 emissions Mario Molinaa, Durwood Zaelkeb,1, K. Madhava Sarmac, Stephen O. Andersend, Veerabhadran Ramanathane, and Donald Kaniaruf aDepartment of Chemistry and Biochemistry, University of California, San Diego, 9500 Gilman Drive, MC 0356, La Jolla, CA 92093; bInstitute for Governance and Sustainable Development, and International Network for Environmental Compliance and Enforcement, 2300 Wisconsin Ave., NW, Washington, DC 20007; cMontreal Protocol Technology and Economics Assessment Panel, AB 50, Anna Nagar, Chennai, India 600040; dMontreal Protocol Technology and Economic Assessment Panel, 2317 North Road, Barnard, VT 05031-0257; eScripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California, San Diego, 9500 Gilman Drive, La Jolla CA 92093-0221; and fNational Environment Tribunal of Kenya, Woodvale Grove, Sarit Centre, Nairobi, Kenya Edited by Hans Joachim Schellnhuber, Environmental Change Institute, Oxford, United Kingdom, and approved August 31, 2009 (received for review March 9, 2009) Current emissions of anthropogenic greenhouse gases (GHGs) calculate will have a Ͼ75% chance of staying Ͻ2 °C. The have already committed the planet to an increase in average Alliance of Small Island States calls for the more aggressive goals surface temperature by the end of the century that may be above of stabilizing temperatures below a 1.5 °C increase and maxi- the critical threshold for tipping elements of the climate system mum of 350 ppm CO2-equivalent (CO2-eq.) (7). into abrupt change with potentially irreversible and unmanage- able consequences. This would mean that the climate system is Tipping Points for Abrupt Climate Change. Paleoclimate records close to entering if not already within the zone of ‘‘dangerous include steady linear changes as well as abrupt nonlinear anthropogenic interference’’ (DAI).
    [Show full text]