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Linkages Between the Montreal and Kyoto Protocols

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Linkages Between the Montreal and Kyoto Protocols Linkages between the Montreal and Kyoto Protocols Sebastian Oberthür Prepared for: – Inter-Linkages – International Conference on Synergies and Coordination between Multilateral Environmental Agreements 14, 15 and 16 July, 1999 The Vienna Convention for the Protection of the Ozone Layer of 1985 and its Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer of 1987 are probably the multilateral environmental agreements that have inspired negotiations on the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (FCCC) of 1992 and its Kyoto Protocol of 1997 most. This is not least because the Montreal Protocol is generally considered as one of the most successful cases of international co-operation on environmental issues. The Montreal Protocol started out in 1987 as an instrument to control production and consumption of chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) and halons, two groups of powerful ozone-depleting substances (ODS). It was subsequently adjusted and amended four times in 1990, 1992, 1995 and 1997. Today it determines the world-wide phase-out of most known ODS of a significant potential, including also carbon tetrachloride, methyl chloroform, partially halogenated CFCs (HCFCs) and methyl bromide. By 1996, it had be successful in reducing global production and consumption of these substances by nearly 80% from the level before international controls.1 In comparison to the mature ozone regime, the international co-operation for the protection of the Earth’s climate are still at an early stage. From the adoption of the FCCC, it took Parties more than five years to agree on the Kyoto Protocol that for the first time determines quantified emission limitation and reduction commitments of industrialised countries. These are to lead to an overall reduction of these countries’ emissions of the main greenhouse gases (GHGs) CO2, methane, N2O, hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), perfluorocarbons (PFCs) and sulphur hexafluoride (SF6) of at least five percent by 2008-2012 as compared to their 1990 levels. In addition, the Kyoto Protocol contains a number of innovative mechanisms for its implementation (emissions trading, joint implementation, clean development mechanism). However, the Protocol has neither entered into force nor is it clear when (and in which form) such entry into force might occur.2 There are a number of linkages between the issue areas of ozone depletion and climate change. First, causes and effects of both environmental problems intersect in various ways (section 1). Second, the example of the Montreal Protocol has served as a model for the design of the international regime on climate change in many respects and is likely to do so also in future (section 2). Third and most importantly for policy making post- Kyoto, tensions exist between the two regimes, as the fluorinated GHGs that are controlled under the Kyoto Protocol are considered part of the solution of the problem of ozone depletion by many (section 3). Existing potentials for learning from the Montreal Protocol and creating synergies between both regimes have received less attention (section 4). The treaties and the treaty processes have gone some way towards managing the linkages, but especially the case of the fluorinated GHGs points to the need and opportunity for closer co-operation (section 5). 1 For the development of the Vienna Convention and its Montreal Protocol see Oberthür 1997; Ott 1998; Benedick 1998; for an analysis of production and consumption of ODS see Oberthür 1998. 2 See generally Oberthür/Ott 1999; Grubb et al. 1999. 1 1. Scientific Linkages The relationships between the causes and effects of ozone depletion and climate change are manifold and complex, and there are both positive and negative feedbacks.3 To start with, chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) and other ozone-depleting substances (ODS) like halons, carbon tetrachloride, methyl chloroform, HCFCs and methyl bromide are also powerful GHGs with Global Warming Potentials (GWPs) far higher than CO2 (see Table). In the 1980s, halocarbons have been found to have contributed 24% to additional anthropogenic greenhouse forcing.4 In addition, increased ultraviolet radiation resulting from ozone depletion can harm plants and marine species like phyto-plankton thus reducing their sink capacity for CO2 and enhancing man-made climate change. Phasing out ODS under the Montreal Protocol thus also serves the objective of climate protection. ODS have, however, also a cooling effect, since they destroy ozone in the stratosphere, which is itself a powerful GHG. This indirect effect has been estimated to offset up to nearly a half of the direct warming effect of ODS.5 To make things even more complicated, reduced amounts of stratospheric ozone allow more ultraviolet radiation to enter the troposphere. This eventually results in a shortened lifetime of methane, HFCs and other GHGs containing hydrogen and thus leading to reduced greenhouse forcing.6 On balance, ODS are, however, still contributing significantly to human-induced climate change. GHGs, on the other hand, influence the depletion of stratospheric ozone. Apart from the role of GHGs in the chemical processes involved in the destruction of stratospheric ozone, increased CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere in particular is expected to lead to a cooling of the stratosphere. This, in turn, might prolong and enhance ozone depletion which intensifies as temperatures in the stratosphere drop. As the Scientific Assessment of Ozone Depletion 1998 states, "At present, the amplitude and extent of such a cooling and therefore the delay in the recovery of the ozone layer, still have to be assessed".7 Table: GWPs of Selected Halocarbons (100-year time horizon) Substance GWP (IPCC 1996) GWP (WMO/UNEP 1998) CFC-11 3800 4600 CFC-12 8100 10600 3 See in general Megie 1999. 4 IPCC 1990. 5 IPCC 1996. 6 This is because increased UV radiation in the troposphere results in increased formation of OH radicals shortening the lifetime of these compounds; UNEP 1998. 7 UNEP 1998: xxxvii. 2 CFC-113 4800 6000 Halon-1211 n.a. 1300 Halon-1301 5400 6900 HCFC-22 1500 1900 HCFC-141b 600 700 HCFC-142b 1800 2300 HFC-125 2800 3800 HFC-134a 1300 1600 HFC-227 (ea) 2900 3800 CF4 (a PFC) 6500 5700 C2F6 (a PFC) 9200 11400 SF6 (not a halocarbon) 23900 22200 2. Lessons Learned from the Montreal Protocol Based on the close linkage between the two issue areas, international co-operation for the protection of the ozone layer, and the Montreal Protocol in particular, has constantly served as a model in the design of the international regime on climate change. This does first of all hold for the general approach towards international regulation: the FCCC and its Kyoto Protocol follow the „framework convention plus protocol“ example of the ozone regime. In addition, the Montreal Protocol has informed the design of various aspects of the evolving regime on climate change, although it might not least be its overall success and effectiveness that have prevented wider application of its lessons. In fact, there is hardly any aspect of the FCCC and its Kyoto Protocol where the Montreal Protocol has not informed and inspired discussions on adequate design or where it has not been cited as a precedent. The list includes the financial mechanism, the procedures for reviewing and amending the treaty rules, the design of a basket of gases subject to controls, the link of policy making with scientific and technical advice etc. The most obvious example of a positive model function of the Montreal Protocol relates to its innovative non-compliance procedure. In the elaboration of the multilateral consultative process for the resolution of questions concerning implementation under Article 13 of the FCCC, the non-compliance procedure of the Montreal Protocol served as the model and the experience gained in its application since 1991 was taken into account.8 Also, Article 18 of the Kyoto Protocol mandating a non-compliance procedure has been heavily influenced by the experience of the Montreal Protocol – and there is little doubt that this will also be true for the eventual elaboration of the procedure.9 8 This has not least been based on a substantial overlap of legal experts involved in the elaboration (and application) of both procedures; see generally Szell 1995; see also Ott 1996. 9 See Oberthür/Ott 1999, Part II. 3 Even in this most positive example of learning, the transfer of rules that have proven effective under the Montreal Protocol has sometimes been difficult exactly because they have stood the test. Parties that have not liked the climate change regime acquire just the same degree of effectiveness (because of potential negative implications of specific rules for them) have worked hard and with some success to prevent the transfer of some of the features of the Montreal Protocol into the climate change context. Linking policy making with scientific and technical advice as closely as has been done in the Montreal Protocol through the establishment of various expert panels has thus not been possible under the FCCC.10 In summary, a long-existent linkage between the two international regimes has been the model function of the Montreal Protocol. Varying lessons have been drawn by different actors from the Montreal Protocol experience. This has not been based on any formal co- operation but has been facilitated by the large overlap of government representatives and experts involved in both processes. The Montreal Protocol thus remains one of the first reference points in developing the climate change regime. 3. Contradictions: HFCs and other fluorinated GHGs The need for closer co-operation between the two treaty regimes has come to the fore with Kyoto. HFCs, PFCs and SF6 have become part of the basket of GHGs controlled by the Kyoto Protocol. Parties may thus wish to limit and reduce emissions of these gases. However, in particular HFCs have been promoted as substitutes for CFCs and other ODS. Some Parties to the Montreal Protocol and branches of the industry concerned even claim that they agreed to total ODS phase-out under the Montreal Protocol on the understanding that HFCs would be available as substitutes.
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