The circular economy: Moving from theory to practice
McKinsey Center for Business and Environment Special edition, October 2016 The circular economy: Editorial Board: McKinsey & Company Moving from theory to practice Shannon Bouton, Anne-Titia Practice Publications is written by consultants Bové, Eric Hannon, Clarisse Editor in Chief: from across sectors and Magnin-Mallez, Matt Rogers, Lucia Rahilly geographies, with expertise Steven Swartz, Helga in sustainability and Vanthournout Executive Editors: resource productivity. Michael T. Borruso, Editors: Cait Murphy, Allan Gold, Bill Javetski, To send comments or Josh Rosenfield Mark Staples request copies, email us: [email protected]. Art Direction and Design: Copyright © 2016 McKinsey & Leff Communications Company. All rights reserved.
Managing Editors: This publication is not Michael T. Borruso, Venetia intended to be used as Simcock the basis for trading in the shares of any company or Editorial Production: for undertaking any other Runa Arora , Elizabeth complex or significant Brown, Heather Byer, Roger financial transaction without Draper, Torea Frey, Heather consulting appropriate Hanselman, Gwyn Herbein, professional advisers. Katya Petriwsky, John C. Sanchez, Dana Sand, No part of this publication may Sneha Vats, Belinda Yu be copied or redistributed in any form without the prior Cover Illustration: written consent of McKinsey & Richard Johnson Company.
Table of contents 2 4 11
Introduction Finding growth within: Ahead of the curve: Innovative A new framework for Europe models for waste management How the circular economy in emerging markets could promote clean growth. How countries can turn their garbage into wealth.
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A new plastics economy: Developing products for a Toward a circular economy From linear value chain to circular economy in food circular system Cross-functional collaboration Danone CEO Emmanuel Faber Remaking the plastics economy and customer-focused design shares how his company will require innovation in recycling thinking can help companies manages resources with an eye and reuse as well as in design reap more value from the energy on sustainability. and chemistry. and resources they use.
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Style that’s sustainable: A new fast-fashion formula Stylish, affordable clothing has been a hit with shoppers. Now companies are trying to reduce its social and environmental costs.
Introduction
Eric Hannon, Clarisse Magnin-Mallez, and Helga Vanthournout
We are pleased to present this special collection of high-grade stocks of key commodities dwindle. articles on the circular economy. Its subtitle, Moving People and companies are increasingly willing to from theory to practice, refers to the transition pay as needed to use durable goods, rather than to taking place as companies in many sectors use buy them outright. With digital technologies and circular-economy concepts to capture more value novel designs, items can be tracked and maintained from resources and to provide customers with better efficiently, which makes it easier to extend their experiences. The term “paradigm shift” is overused, useful lives. And governments are imposing new but this is one instance where it applies. restrictions on pollution and waste that apply along entire product life cycles. Since the Industrial Revolution, companies and consumers have largely adhered to a linear model These developments mean that it is increasingly of value creation that begins with extraction and advantageous to redeploy resources over and over, concludes with end-of-life disposal. Resources often for the same or comparable purposes. This are acquired, processed using energy and labor, is the organizing principle of circular economies, and sold as goods—with the expectation that and the benefits that come from following it can be customers will discard those goods and buy more. substantial. According to the research documented Contemporary trends, however, have exposed the in “Finding growth within: A new framework for wastefulness of such take–make–dispose systems. Europe,” a circular economy could generate a net The same trends have also made it practical to economic gain of €1.8 trillion per year by 2030. conserve assets and materials so maximum value The building sector, for example, could halve can be derived from them. construction costs with industrial and modular processes. Car sharing, autonomous driving, electric Consider that resource prices have become more vehicles, and better materials could lower the cost of volatile and are expected to rise over the long term, driving by 75 percent. as consumer demand increases and easy-to-access,
2 The circular economy: Moving from theory to practice Special edition, October 2016 The benefits are just as significant for less-developed Such opportunities are top of mind for Danone economies. “Ahead of the curve: Innovative models CEO Emmanuel Faber. In an interview, “Toward for waste management in emerging markets” a circular economy in food,” he describes how describes effective ways of encouraging the conver- his company looks at every stage in the life of its sion of waste materials into valuable inputs. products to overcome, and help solve, growing These include aggregating waste flows into large resource scarcity. “To embed the principles of the volumes that businesses can work with and circular economy in our operations,” he says, “we establishing incentives to lessen waste creation. have started managing our three key resources— South Africa increased collection rates for water, milk, and plastic—as cycles rather than as scrap tires to 70 percent, from 3 percent, in just conventional linear supply chains.” 18 months, leading to the creation of small and midsize processing and recycling companies. The Danone’s rethinking of its operations is one example country also aims to divert a majority of scrap tires of how business-model innovation, based on circular into high-value material-recovery processes by 2020. principles, helps companies get ahead. More examples can be found among apparel companies, Similar possibilities inform our thinking about which are starting to reckon with the resource the global plastics economy, which produces high- demands and waste associated with the business performance materials for a wide assortment of of fast fashion. “Style that’s sustainable: A new applications but relies heavily on nonrenewable fast-fashion formula” outlines how some clothing feedstocks and consigns too much plastic to the makers are getting ahead of consumer concerns by trash. “A new plastics economy: From linear value setting new design standards, improving materials chain to circular system” points to innovations and and recycling technologies, engaging suppliers, and practices that can lower the industry’s need for educating shoppers. virgin inputs and boost plastics reuse and recycling. Industry-wide standards for packaging formats and As other companies follow these pioneers in the materials, for example, could make it economical transition from circular-economy theory to practice, to recycle more plastic by reducing its variety and they are certain to encounter obstacles. This is increasing the volume of each plastic type. natural: breaking out of old models and letting go of time-tested approaches is challenging. But the “Developing products for a circular economy” offers lessons of the circular economy are accumulating— another point of view on how to eliminate waste and they show that the gains from making the and create value: that of designers and engineers. It transition outweigh the effort and the risk. With isn’t easy to create products that are lasting, simple those benefits in mind, we invite you to turn the page to reuse or recycle, and profitable. But when design and learn more about how to reap the rewards of teams get together with other company departments going circular. and use design thinking, they can conjure up resource-efficient ways of delighting customers. Eric Hannon is a partner in McKinsey’s Frankfurt office, Clarisse Magnin-Mallez is a senior partner in the Paris Greater collaboration allowed one medical-equipment office, andHelga Vanthournout is a senior expert in the company to figure out that collecting and refurbishing Geneva office. used devices would allow it to meet the needs of underserved customers in emerging markets. Copyright © 2016 McKinsey & Company. All rights reserved.
Introduction 3 Finding growth within: A new framework for Europe
© Maskot/Getty Images
How the circular economy could promote clean growth.
Morten Rossé, Martin Stuchtey, and Helga Vanthournout
4 How can Europe increase its prosperity, while in association with the Deutsche Post Foundation. reducing its dependence on primary materials This 98-page document considered what a circular and energy? European economy could look like and compared its potential impact with the current development The circular economy is part of the answer to that path. The report found that in the aggregate, the question. opportunities associated with a circular scenario could be large and that resource productivity Instead of today’s take–make–dispose linear model remains hugely underexploited as a source of of production, the circular economy is restorative wealth, competitiveness, and renewal. by design—using and reusing natural capital as efficiently as possible and finding value throughout The analysis applied circular-economy principles the life cycles of finished products. Three major and business actions to three sectors—mobility, principles govern the circular economy: food, and shelter—and defined a potential future state based on technology that will be available Preserve and enhance natural capital by within five years. We then tested this vision in controlling finite stocks and balancing the flow expert interviews. The circular scenario outlined of renewable resources. here does not represent the most likely development path; it simply describes a technically viable future Optimize resource yields by circulating state. On that basis, by 2050, the report estimated, products, components, and materials in use at capturing all of the improvements as total-cost- the highest possible levels at all times. of-ownership (TCO) savings could reduce mobility costs for the average European household by Make the system more effective by eliminating 60 to 80 percent, food costs by 25 to 40 percent, negative externalities. and housing costs by 25 to 35 percent.
Proponents argue that the circular economy offers Across the economy as a whole, we found that the Europe an opportunity to increase the productivity circular economy, enabled by new technology, could of resources, decrease dependence on them (as well help Europe to improve its resource productivity by as waste), and raise employment and growth. They up to 3 percent. By 2030, this surge would not only maintain, too, that a circular system would improve generate cost savings as high as €600 billion a year competitiveness and unleash innovation. Skeptics (and an additional €1.2 trillion in other benefits) say that European companies are already capturing but could also translate into a GDP increase of most of the economically attractive opportunities up to seven percentage points over the current to recycle, remanufacture, and reuse. Reaching development scenario. The promise of the circular higher levels of circularity, they argue, would incur economy, then, is significant. substantial economic costs. In this article, adapted from the Ellen MacArthur To contribute to a fact base that could inform this Foundation report, we summarize the major debate, last year the McKinsey Center for Business conclusions of the research (part one) and then and Environment and the Ellen MacArthur set forth the six ways businesses and societies can Foundation developed the report Growth within: A move toward a circular economy (part two). circular economy vision for a competitive Europe,
Finding growth within: A new framework for Europe 5 Part one Disruptive technologies and business models could What the research says: Seven conclusions help Europe to raise resource productivity and cut To create the report, we conducted more than costs. The digital and technology revolution could 150 interviews, devised an economic model, and have a disruptive impact on many sectors of the undertook the largest comparative study to date economy. With regard to driving, for example, the of the employment impact of a circular-economy average cost per car-kilometer could fall by up transition. We also considered the academic to 75 percent thanks to car sharing, autonomous literature. Our analysis yielded these conclusions. and driverless driving, electric vehicles (EVs), and better materials. In food, precision agriculture The European economy still operates largely on a could improve the input efficiency of water and take–make–dispose basis. In 2012, the average fertilizers by 20 to 30 percent. Combined with European used 16 tons of materials—and only no-tillage farming, this advance could reduce 40 percent of that was recycled or reused. In terms machinery and input costs by as much as 75 percent. of value, material recycling and waste-based energy In buildings, industrial and modular processes recovery captured only 5 percent of the original could cut construction costs in half compared with raw-material value. Even recycling success stories traditional on-site construction; passive houses such as steel, polyethylene terephthalate (PET), could reduce energy consumption by 90 percent. and paper involve the loss of 30 to 75 percent of the value of the materials during the first use cycle. On That is the potential. But it is not inevitable that average, European businesses and households use it will be fulfilled. These sectors are mature and materials only once. already the subject of much public policy, such as zoning laws, agricultural regulation, and building The analysis of sectors also found significant standards. They (and other sectors too) may economic waste in some that many would consider therefore fail to integrate the new technologies mature and optimized. For example, the average effectively, so that much structural waste remains. European car is parked 92 percent of the time; Moreover, the rebound effects could be significant. 31 percent of Europe’s food is wasted; and the When prices for a resource fall, consumers tend to average European office is used only 35 to 50 use more of it, diminishing the desired outcome. percent of the time, even during working hours. Even considering such drawbacks, the report finds And use cycles are short: the average manufactured that in these three sectors alone, the savings could asset (excluding buildings) lasts only nine years. reach €900 billion a year by 2030.
This take–make–dispose system costs Europe By adopting circular-economy principles and €7.2 trillion every year for mobility, food, and the integrating new technologies and business models, built environment. Of this sum, resource costs Europe could achieve ‘growth within.’ We call this are estimated at €1.8 trillion. Related cash costs, the growth-within approach because it focuses including all other household and government on getting more value from the existing stock of expenditures, come to €3.4 trillion, and products and materials, while decoupling value externalities (such as traffic congestion, carbon- creation from resource consumption. The concept dioxide emissions, and pollution and noise) to rests on three principles: preserve and enhance €2 trillion. natural capital, optimize yields from resources
6 The circular economy: Moving from theory to practice Special edition, October 2016 in use, and make the system more effective by studies indicated that while more research is removing negative externalities. needed, there would be “positive employment effects” if “a circular economy is implemented.” The approach outlined in the report would not This improvement would be largely attributable to only reduce structural waste and give consumers increased spending fueled by lower prices and to new choices but also create significant economic the labor intensity of recycling activities and more benefits. Getting there, though, requires a change highly skilled jobs in remanufacturing. of mind-set. Today, Europe has no established metrics for the utilization of key infrastructure A circular economy could benefit the environment and products. It does not measure their longevity while boosting competitiveness and resilience. In or their success in raising GDP (still strongly a circular economy, economic growth would be emphasized) and preserving the value of materials decoupled from resource use. Across the three and ecosystems. sectors of the study, carbon-dioxide emissions would drop as much as 48 percent from 2012 levels A growth-within model would create better outcomes by 2030 (31 percent on the current development for the European economy, generating annual path) and 83 percent by 2050 (61 percent on the benefits of up to €1.8 trillion by 2030. Our models current development path). The principal sources rely on multiple assumptions and need more of emissions cuts would be electric, shared, and research. Even so, we believe that pursuing oppor- autonomous vehicles; a reduction in wastage of tunities that are already profitable, or close to that, food; regenerative and healthy food chains; passive could reduce Europe’s resource spending by as houses; urban planning; and renewable energy. much as 32 percent a year, or €600 billion, by 2030. Today, materials and components—40 to 60 per- These resource benefits also come with a signi- cent of the total cost base of manufacturing ficant economic-multiplier effect. Benefits in other firms in Europe—often create a competitive cost related cash costs could be as high as €700 billion. disadvantage. Europe imports 60 percent of its Externality costs could decrease by up to €500 bil- fossil fuels and metal resources, and the European lion. By 2030, the total annual benefit could be Union has listed 20 materials as critical for security €1.8 trillion, twice that of the current development of supply. In the circular scenario, consumption path. The modeling also suggests that benefits would of primary materials (measured by car and continue to grow rapidly toward 2050. construction inputs, synthetic fertilizers, pesticides, water and land use for agriculture, fuels and The circular economy could produce better welfare, nonrenewable electricity, and land for real estate) GDP, and employment outcomes than the current could drop as much as 32 percent by 2030 and 53 development path. The modeling for 2030 suggests percent by 2050. that in the circular scenario, the disposable income of European households and Europe’s GDP could Moving toward a circular economy would incur be as much as 11 and 7 percentage points higher, considerable transition costs. R&D and asset respectively, than they would be under the current investments, stranded investments, subsidies, and development path. A circular economy would also spending on digital infrastructure would account help to boost employment. A review of 65 academic for most of these costs. There are no precisely
Finding growth within: A new framework for Europe 7 comparable situations, but the British government Create initiatives at the European, national, and has estimated that creating a fully efficient reuse city levels to facilitate the development and recycling system would cost around €14 billion, of profitable circular business opportunities which translates into €108 billion on a Europe- at scale. wide level. From 2000 to 2013, the renewables transition in Germany cost €123 billion in feed-in Design a new governance system to steer the tariffs alone to operators of plants using renew- economy toward greater resource productivity, able resources. employment, and competitiveness.
If managed well, though, this transition could also The timing is opportune. Essential enabling create opportunities for economic and industrial technologies are growing up. Europe is in the midst renewal: shifting to the circular model could of a pervasive shift in consumer behavior. Business contribute significantly to achieving Europe’s leaders are implementing product-to-service growth, employment, and environmental strategies and innovative business models. And at objectives. Many previously underappreciated least for now, resource prices are easing, making it possibilities are now coming into focus. For simpler to correct market and regulatory distortions. instance, the European Commission’s agenda for establishing a digital single market and an energy Part two union could create the core infrastructure for a What to do: Six actions regenerative and virtualized system. Building a circular economy requires complex efforts at the local, national, regional, and global Building a strong foundation for the circular levels. To transition from the current trajectory to a economy requires coordinated action. Shifting to a circular one, European economies and companies circular economic model will affect all sectors and must undertake six actions: regenerate, share, policy domains. Here are four priorities: optimize, loop, virtualize, and exchange—the ReSOLVE framework. Learn about, research, and identify opportunities across Europe. Regenerate. Shift to renewable energy and materials; reclaim, retain, and regenerate the Develop systems to preserve the value health of ecosystems; and return recovered of materials. biological resources to the biosphere. For
Building a strong foundation for the circular economy requires coordinated action. Shifting to a circular economic model will affect all sectors and policy domains.
8 The circular economy: Moving from theory to practice Special edition, October 2016 example, the Savory Institute’s promotion of plants treat 66 percent of sewage sludge, and an comprehensive land management has influenced additional 175 plants produce bioenergy from the regeneration of more than 2.5 million solid waste—a number that is growing rapidly. hectares of commercial land around the world. Virtualize. Deliver utility virtually—books or Share. Maximize utilization of products through music, online shopping, fleets of autonomous peer-to-peer sharing of privately owned vehicles, and virtual offices. products or public sharing of pools of products; reuse them throughout their technical life Exchange. Replace old materials with advanced spans; and prolong those life spans through renewable ones; apply new technologies, such as maintenance, repair, and design for durability. 3-D printing and electric engines. Examples include car- and home-sharing business models. In different ways, these actions all increase the utilization of physical assets, prolong their Optimize. Improve the performance and life spans, and shift the use of resources from efficiency of products; remove waste from finite to renewable ones. Moreover, each action their supply chains; and leverage big data, reinforces and accelerates the performance of the automation, and remote sensing. None others. Separately and together, they could have a of these actions requires changing products profound impact, increasing cost competitiveness or technologies. substantially. Most industries already have profitable opportunities in each area (exhibit). Loop. Keep components and materials in closed loops and prioritize the inner ones. For Not all of the technological advances will reduce finite materials, this means remanufacturing costs; many might improve performance instead, products or components and (as a last resort) and in some cases, the technology will need time to recycling materials, as Michelin, Rolls-Royce, make a difference. But the analysis is persuasive: and Renault are doing. For renewable materials, the circular economy carries a transformational it involves anaerobic digestion and the potential that business—and society—would do well extraction of biochemicals from organic waste. to take seriously. In the United Kingdom, 146 anaerobic-digestion
Finding growth within: A new framework for Europe 9 SRP 2016 Growth Within Exhibit 1 of 1
Exhibit A circular perspective can help many industries cut costs and improve performance.
High profit potential Medium profit potential Low profit potential