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Evaluating the Environmental Drivers of Mud Crab (Scylla Serrata) Catches in Australia

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Evaluating the Environmental Drivers of Mud Crab (Scylla Serrata) Catches in Australia Evaluating the environmental drivers of mud crab (Scylla serrata) catches in Australia Final Report FRDC Project 2008/012 ISBN 978-0-646-53636-1 Jan-Olaf Meynecke, Shing Yip Lee, Mark Grubert, Ian Brown, Steven Montgomery, Neil Gribble, Danielle Johnston, Jonathan Gillson 180 Robinson and Wearyan river 900 160 800 140 700 120 600 l l 100 500 a f UE n 80 400 i CP ra 60 300 40 200 20 100 0 0 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 FINAL REPORT FRDC 2008/012 [ISBN 978-0-646-53636-1] ii EVALUATING THE ENVIRONMENTAL DRIVERS OF MUD CRAB (SCYLLA SERRATA) CATCHES IN AUSTRALIA FINAL REPORT FRDC 2008/012 Evaluating the environmental drivers of mud crab (Scylla serrata) catches in Australia July 2010 Enquiries should be addressed to: Jan-Olaf Meynecke [email protected] Copyright and Disclaimer © 2010 Fisheries Research and Development Corporation and Griffith University Except as permitted under the Copyright Act 1968 (Cth), no part of this publication may be reproduced by any process, electronic or otherwise, without the specific written permission of the copyright owners. Information may not be stored electronically in any form whatsoever without such permission. Important Disclaimer The authors do not warrant that the information in this document is free from errors or omissions. The authors do not accept any form of liability, be it contractual, tortious, or otherwise, for the contents of this document or for any consequences arising from its use or any reliance placed upon it. The information, opinions and advice contained in this document may not relate, or be relevant, to a reader’s particular circumstances. Opinions expressed by the authors are the individual opinions expressed by those persons and are not necessarily those of the publisher, research provider or the FRDC. The Fisheries Research and Development Corporation plans, invests in and manages fisheries research and development throughout Australia. It is a statutory authority within the portfolio of the federal Minister for Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry, jointly funded by the Australian Government and the fishing industry. EVALUATING THE ENVIRONMENTAL DRIVERS OF MUD CRAB (SCYLLA SERRATA) CATCHES IN AUSTRALIA 1 FINAL REPORT FRDC 2008/012 Table of Contents NON-TECHNICAL SUMMARY ..............................................................................................7 1. INTRODUCTION .......................................................................................................10 1.1 Background ..................................................................................................10 1.2 Need..............................................................................................................10 2. LITERATURE REVIEW..............................................................................................11 2.1 Global and Australian Mud Crab Fisheries..................................................11 2.2 Global Distribution of Mud Crabs ...............................................................13 2.3 Size and Maturity .........................................................................................14 2.4 Habitats and Movement................................................................................15 2.5 Food..............................................................................................................16 2.6 Life Cycle.....................................................................................................16 2.7 Environmental Drivers ................................................................................17 2.7.1 Physical Environmental Drivers....................................................17 2.7.2 Salinity and Freshwater Flow........................................................19 2.7.3 Other Potential Physical Environmental Drivers..........................19 2.7.4 Biological Drivers..........................................................................19 3. CONCEPTUAL MODEL AND HYPOTHESIS.................................................................20 4. GENERAL METHODS AND DATA MANAGEMENT .....................................................21 4.1 Statistical Analyses......................................................................................21 4.2 Adjusting Catch for Effort............................................................................22 4.3 Correlation Analyses....................................................................................22 4.4 Multiple Regression and Forward Regression Analyses..............................22 4.5 Reduction of Autocorrelation.......................................................................23 4.6 Meta-Analyses..............................................................................................23 4.7 Data ..............................................................................................................24 4.7.1 Mud Crab Catch Data....................................................................24 4.7.2 Rainfall Data..................................................................................26 4.7.3 Freshwater Flow Data ...................................................................26 4.7.4 Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO).................................................28 4.7.5 Southern Oscillation Index (SOI)...................................................29 4.7.6 Sea Surface Temperature ...............................................................29 5. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION .....................................................................................30 5.1 Northern Territory Mud Crab Catches and Environmental Drivers ............30 5.1.1 State-Specific Background Information .........................................30 5.1.2 Correlation Analyses......................................................................31 5.1.3 Regression and Forward Stepwise Multiple Regression Analyses 33 5.1.4 Meta-Analyses................................................................................36 5.1.5 Discussion ......................................................................................36 5.2 Queensland Mud Crab Catches and Environmental Drivers .......................38 5.2.1 State-Specific Background Information .........................................38 5.2.2 Correlation Analyses......................................................................40 5.2.3 Regression and Forward Stepwise Multiple Regression Analyses 42 5.2.4 Meta-Analyses................................................................................43 5.2.5 Discussion ......................................................................................44 5.3 New South Wales Mud Crab Catches and Environmental Drivers..............47 2 EVALUATING THE ENVIRONMENTAL DRIVERS OF MUD CRAB (SCYLLA SERRATA) CATCHES IN AUSTRALIA FINAL REPORT FRDC 2008/012 5.3.1 State Specific Background Information......................................... 47 5.3.2 Correlation Analyses ..................................................................... 49 5.3.3 Regression and Forward Stepwise Multiple Regression Analyses 51 5.3.4 Meta-Analyses................................................................................ 54 5.3.5 Discussion...................................................................................... 57 5.4 Comparison of analysed data from the Northern Territory, Queensland and New South Wales......................................................................................... 58 5.5 Western Australia Mud Crab Catches and Environmental Drivers............. 59 5.5.1 State-Specific Background Information......................................... 59 5.5.2 Reports from fishers....................................................................... 62 6. DISCUSSION............................................................................................................ 62 6.1 General Discussion...................................................................................... 62 6.2 Benefits ........................................................................................................ 63 6.3 Further Development ................................................................................... 63 6.3 Planned Outcomes ....................................................................................... 64 7. CONCLUSION .......................................................................................................... 65 8. REFERENCES........................................................................................................... 66 Appendix 1. Intellectual Property………………………………………………..70 Appendix 2. List of staff engaged in the project…………………………………71 Appendix 3. Fitting of unstandardised residuals………………………………....73 Appendix 4. List of the selected 46 river or catchment systems……………...….77 Appendix 5. Northern Territory mud crab research field trip………………..…..79 Appendix 6. Metadata information………………………………………….…...81 Appendix 7. Time series between CPUE and rainfall/flow…………………...…83 EVALUATING THE ENVIRONMENTAL DRIVERS OF MUD CRAB (SCYLLA SERRATA) CATCHES IN AUSTRALIA 3 FINAL REPORT FRDC 2008/012 List of Tables Table 1. Overview of mud crab fisheries in Australian jurisdictions..........................................13 Table 2. History of minimum legal sizes for Australian commercial mud crab fisheries ...........14 Table 3. Estimated size of maturity for each jurisdiction and suggested
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