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NBER Reporter Online, Volume 1981 A Service of Leibniz-Informationszentrum econstor Wirtschaft Leibniz Information Centre Make Your Publications Visible. zbw for Economics National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) (Ed.) Periodical Part NBER Reporter Online, Volume 1981 NBER Reporter Online Provided in Cooperation with: National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), Cambridge, Mass. Suggested Citation: National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) (Ed.) (1981) : NBER Reporter Online, Volume 1981, NBER Reporter Online, National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), Cambridge, MA This Version is available at: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/62107 Standard-Nutzungsbedingungen: Terms of use: Die Dokumente auf EconStor dürfen zu eigenen wissenschaftlichen Documents in EconStor may be saved and copied for your Zwecken und zum Privatgebrauch gespeichert und kopiert werden. personal and scholarly purposes. Sie dürfen die Dokumente nicht für öffentliche oder kommerzielle You are not to copy documents for public or commercial Zwecke vervielfältigen, öffentlich ausstellen, öffentlich zugänglich purposes, to exhibit the documents publicly, to make them machen, vertreiben oder anderweitig nutzen. publicly available on the internet, or to distribute or otherwise use the documents in public. Sofern die Verfasser die Dokumente unter Open-Content-Lizenzen (insbesondere CC-Lizenzen) zur Verfügung gestellt haben sollten, If the documents have been made available under an Open gelten abweichend von diesen Nutzungsbedingungen die in der dort Content Licence (especially Creative Commons Licences), you genannten Lizenz gewährten Nutzungsrechte. may exercise further usage rights as specified in the indicated licence. www.econstor.eu NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH, INC. SPRING 1981 Program Report I nternational Studies William H. Branson The research in NSER's Program in International Studies falls into three major categories: exchange rates, com­ parative macroeconomics, and long-run structural changes in the world economy. This third area, the most recent addition to the program, pulls together the long-run as­ pects of exchange rates and comparative macroeco­ nomics but also focuses on questions of comparative productivity growth among countries, international changes in the location of manufacturing, and patterns of trade. Each of the areas of research is summarized briefly below. Exchange Rates The first concern undertaken by NSER's Program in International Studies was exchange rates. More spec if­ ically, the focus has been on short-run determinants of nominal exchange rates, longer-run movements in real exchange rates, and the role of exchange rates in macro­ economic policy. Members of this project meet periodi­ cally, usually in New York, todiscusstheirwork.* Project members also gathered in Cambridge last su mmer (1980) interested economists and aimed at conSOlidating exist­ for a month-long presentation of workshops and seminars. ing and ongoing research. A second meeting, where Incorporating the feedback from those sessions, Willem completed work will be presented to those interested in H. Suiter and Douglas D. Purvis produced Working Pa­ exchange rate policy, is set for summer 1982. per No. 592, "Oil, Disinflation, and Export Competitive­ ness: A Model of the 'Dutch Disease.''' Maurice Obstfeld Comparative Macroeconomics has recently investigated related work on the appropriate About half the international studies portion of NSER's rates of exchange for macroeconomic policy (Working 1981 Summer Institute will be devoted to topics in com­ Paper No. 599, "Macroeconomic Policy, Exchange Rate parative macroeconomics. Several research associates Dynamics, and Optimal Asset Accumulation"). are working on problems in this area, including Paul Research associates John Silson and Richard Marston Krugman (see Working Paper No. 554, "Oil and the Dol­ are currently organizing a two-part conference on ex­ lar"). Faculty Research Fellow Jeffrey Sachs has investi­ change rates. The first session, scheduled for January gated related work, including Working Paper No. 582, 1982, will be a technical, working meeting designed for "Energy and Growth under Flexible Exchange Rates: A • For a discussion of the project's most recent meeting, see the "Bureau Simulation Study." The focus of such research is on how News" section of this issue of the Reporter. different structures among the industrialized economies The National Bureau of Economic Research is a private, nonprofit influence (1) the economies' reactions to external shocks research organization founded in 1920 and devoted to objective quan­ such as rising oil prices and (2) the transmission of dis­ titative analysis of the American economy. Its officers and board of turbances among countries as through fluctuations in directors are: exchange rates. A natural extension of this research will Chairman-Eli Shapiro be the design of optimal macroeconomic structures. Vice Chairman-Franklin A. Lindsay Treasurer-Charles A. Walworth President and Chief Executive Officer-Martin Feldstein Long-Run Structural Change Vice President-Charles E. McLure, Jr. Director of Finance and Administration-Sam Parker During the 1979 Summer Institute, NBER researchers expressed a common interest in the problems of trade and long-run structural change in the world economy. DIRECTORS AT LARGE The rise of new industrial centers and the competitive Moses Abramovitz Michael H. Moskow challenge they pose to U.S. industry were discussed in George T. Conklin, Jr. James J. O'Leary my chapter, "Trends in U.S. Trade and Investment since Morton Ehrlich Peter G. Peterson World War II," in The American Economy in Transition, Solomon Fabricant Robert V. Roosa Martin Feldstein Richard N. Rosett Martin Feldstein (ed.), (Chicago, 1980), a recent NBER Edward L. Ginzton Bert Seidman conference volume. The response of both the U.S. econ­ David L. Grove Eli Shapiro omy and U.S. policy to these challenges will be one of Walter W. Heller Stephen Stamas the main problems for industrial policy in the coming Walter E. Hoadley Lazare Teper years. Several NBER research associates are working Franklin A. Lindsay Donald S. Wasserman Roy E. Moor Marina v. N. Whitman on topics that have direct bearing on this subject: for ex­ Geoffrey H. Moore ample, Ray C. Fair and Dennis Warner are building mod­ els to describe the structural changes, and Irving B. Kravis and Robert E. Lipsey have described "The Location of DIRECTORS BY UNIVERSITY APPOINTMENT Overseas Production and Production for Export by U.S. Charles H. Berry, Princeton Multinational Firms" in Working Paper No. 482. Otto Eckstein, Harvard A separate group has been organized, with J. David Walter D. Fisher, Northwestern Richardson as chairman, to develop a unified NBER J. C. LaForce, California, Los Angeles Paul McCracken, Michigan project in this area. Several meetings of the group have Daniel McFadden, Massachusetts Institute of Technology already been held in Cambridge, and its work will be Almarin Phillips, Pennsylvania another focal point for the 1981 Summer Institute. James L. Pierce, California, Berkeley Lloyd G. Reynolds, Yale Nathan Rosenberg, Stanford James Simler, Minnesota Researeh Summaries William S. Vickrey, Columbia Dudley Wallace, Duke Burton A. Weisbrod, Wisconsin Arnold Zellner, Chicago Government Purchases, Public Debt, and Taxes DIRECTORS BY APPOINTMENT OF OTHER ORGANIZATIONS Carl F. Christ, American Economic Association Robert J. Barra Robert C. Holland, Committee for Economic Development Stephan F. Kaliski, Canadian Economics Association Although the "equilibrium approach to macroeco­ Albert G. Matamoros, National Association of Business Economists Douglass C. North, Economic History Association nomics" has become identified with monetary models of Rudolph A. Oswald, American Federation of Labor and Congress business fluctuations, this general theoretical viewpoint of Industrial Organizations has also been applied to other aspects of aggregative Joel Popkin, American Statistical Association analysis. The research described here involves macro­ G. Edward Schuh, American Agricultural Economics Association economic effects of government purchases, public debt, James C. Van Horne, American Finance Association Charles A. Walworth, American Institute of Certified Public and taxes. Accountants Government Purchases The output and real rate-of-return effects of govern­ Contributions to the National Bureau are tax deductible. Inquiries ment purchases mainly depend on the size of current concerning contributions may be addressed to Lawrence B. McFaddin, Director of Development, National Bureau of Economic Research,lnc., purchases relative to their anticipated long-run average 1050 Massachusetts Avenue, Cambridge, MA. 02138. leveL' A permanent increase in the flow of government The Reporter is issued for informational purposes and has not been purchases implies-regardless of the current method of reviewed by the Board of Directors of NBER. It is not copyrighted and finance-a parallel decline in the long-run average of can be freely reproduced with appropriate attribution of source. Prep­ aration of the NBER Reporter is under the supervision of DonnaZerwitz, 1 R. Barro, "Output Effects of Government Purchases," NBER Working National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc., 1050 Massachusetts Paper No. 432, January 1980, and forthcoming in Journal of political Avenue, Cambridge, MA 02138. Economy. 2 disposable real income. Since private commodity de­ with macroeconomic theory-the estimated effect was mand would decline roughly one-ta-one,
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