Unequal Incomes, Unequal Outcomes?
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Federal Reserve Bank of New York Economic September 1999 Policy Review Volume 5 Number 3 Unequal Incomes, Unequal Outcomes? Economic Inequality and Measures of Well-Being Proceedings of a Conference Sponsored by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York EDITOR FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK PAUL B. BENNETT ECONOMIC POLICY REVIEW ASSOCIATE EDITORS ADVISORY BOARD LINDA S. GOLDBERG KENNETH N. KUTTNER Andrew Abel Richard J. Herring HAMID MEHRAN Wharton, University of Pennsylvania Wharton, University of Pennsylvania PHILIP E. STRAHAN Ben Bernanke Robert J. Hodrick Princeton University Columbia University Timothy Bollerslev R. Glenn Hubbard Duke University Columbia University Charles Calomiris Christopher M. James EDITORIAL STAFF Columbia University University of Florida, Gainesville Valerie LaPorte Stephen G. Cecchetti Kose John Mike De Mott Ohio State New York University Richard Clarida Edward Kane PRODUCTION STAFF Columbia University Boston College Carol Perlmutter Francis X. Diebold Deborah Lucas Jane Urry New York University Northwestern University Franklin Edwards Richard Lyons Columbia University University of California, Berkeley Henry S. Farber Frederic S. Mishkin Princeton University Columbia University The ECONOMIC POLICY REVIEW Mark Flannery Maurice Obstfeld is published by the Research and University of Florida, Gainesville University of California, Berkeley Market Analysis Group of the Mark Gertler Raghuram G. Rajan Federal Reserve Bank of New New York University University of Chicago York. The views expressed in the Gary Gorton Kenneth Rogoff articles are those of the individual Wharton, University of Pennsylvania Princeton University authors and do not necessarily James D. Hamilton Christopher Sims University of California, San Diego Yale University reflect the position of the Federal Bruce E. Hansen Kenneth D. West Reserve Bank of New York or the University of Wisconsin University of Wisconsin Federal Reserve System. John Heaton Stephen Zeldes Northwestern University Columbia University Federal Reserve Bank of New York Economic Policy Review September 1999 Table of Contents Volume 5 Number 3 Unequal Incomes, Unequal Outcomes? Economic Inequality and Measures of Well-Being Proceedings of a Conference Sponsored by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York May 7, 1999 1TO OUR READERS William J. McDonough 3SUMMARY OF OBSERVATIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS Erica L. Groshen, Chinhui Juhn, James A. Orr, and Barbara L. Wa lter SESSION 1: HEALTH STATUS OF CHILDREN AND HOUSEHOLDS IN POVERTY 9POVERTY, CHILDREN’S HEALTH, AND HEALTH CARE UTILIZATION Barbara L. Wolfe 23 ECONOMIC INEQUALITY AND SOCIAL DIFFERENTIALS IN MORTALITY Arline T. Geronimus 37 COMMENTARY Carol Rapaport DISTINGUISHED ADDRESS 43 PUBLIC HEALTH AND THE PUBLIC AGENDA Kevin Thurm SESSION 2: AFFORDABILITY OF HOUSING FOR YOUNG AND POOR FAMILIES 51 HOUSING OUTCOMES: AN ASSESSMENT OF LONG-TERM TRENDS James A. Orr and Richard W. Peach 63 A LOOK AT REAL HOUSING PRICES AND INCOMES: SOME IMPLICATIONS FOR HOUSING AFFORDABILITY AND QUALITY Joseph Gyourko and Joseph Tracy 79 COMMENTARY Christopher J. Mayer SESSION 3: EDUCATION AND CRIME IN URBAN NEIGHBORHOODS 87 THE CHANGING RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN INCOME AND CRIME VICTIMIZATION Steven D. Levitt 99 ECONOMIC INEQUALITY AND THE PROVISION OF SCHOOLING Thomas A. Downes and David N. Figlio 111 COMMENTARY Derek Neal SESSION 4: ECONOMIC INEQUALITY AND LOCAL PUBLIC SERVICES 117 FROM JOHN LINDSAY TO RUDY GIULIANI: THE DECLINE OF THE LOCAL SAFETY NET? Edward L. Glaeser and Matthew E. Kahn 133 EARNINGS INEQUALITY AND CENTRAL-CITY DEVELOPMENT Edwin S. Mills 143 COMMENTARY James M. Snyder, Jr. SESSION 5: SOCIAL INDICATORS IN NEW YORK CITY 149 SOCIAL INDICATORS AND THE STUDY OF INEQUALITY Marcia K. Meyers and Irwin Garfinkel 165 COMMENTARY Howard Chernick CLOSING DISCUSSION: SOCIAL POLICY IMPLICATIONS 171 GENERAL COMMENTARY Katherine McFate 175 GENERAL COMMENTARY Timothy Smeeding 179 CONFERENCE PARTICIPANTS To Our Readers: We are pleased to bring you this special issue of the Economic Policy Review, dedicated to the proceedings of the conference “Unequal Incomes, Unequal Outcomes? Economic Inequality and Measures of Well-Being.” The conference, held at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York on May 7, 1999, continues this Bank’s tradition of supporting informed public discussion of economic issues that go beyond the workings of monetary policy. The United States has experienced an extraordinary rise in income inequality over the past few decades. The gap between rich and poor Americans—like that between skilled and unskilled workers—has reached its highest level in the postwar era. Although the trend toward increased pay disparity has in recent years shown some signs of abating, there is little doubt that the real incomes of the poor are lower today than they were twenty years ago. While the growing divide between high- and low-income groups has received considerable attention, its larger consequences have been less widely discussed. The organizers of this conference—Erica Groshen, Chinhui Juhn, and James Orr of the Research and Market Analysis Group—chose to focus on the impact of income inequality on several broad measures of material well-being. Specifically, they asked those presenting papers at the conference to consider whether the deterioration in income experienced by the poor has been accompanied by a deterioration in outcomes—in health, housing, education, and crime. Recognizing that progressive public policies have to some extent offset the income disadvantages of the poor, the organizers wished to explore the net effects of the income gap on individuals’ ability to secure certain very basic goods and services. In addressing these issues, conference participants pointed to numerous improvements in the economic prospects of the poor over the past several decades. They stressed, however, that unsettling problems remain. For example, crime is down, but the mortality rates of the inner-city poor are still unacceptably high. Housing affordability has improved dramatically across income groups—except among the poorest Americans. As a collection, the papers in this issue of the Review demonstrate the manifold ways in which poverty undermines the material welfare and potential productivity of many of our citizens. Accordingly, we hope that the volume will provide a fuller understanding of the causes and consequences of income inequality and spur further research into the most effective policy responses. William J. McDonough, President Federal Reserve Bank of New York Summary of Observations and Recommendations Erica L. Groshen, Chinhui Juhn, James A. Orr, and Barbara L. Walter At last year’s Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City sym- effectively draws attention to those suffering the worst out- posium on income inequality, Alan Greenspan suggested comes. Specifically, Wolfe spoke about the strong link that measures of income changes, however reliable, cannot between poverty and health. According to her, in 1994 fully explain trends in the material or economic well-being only 10 percent of children under age five in families making of the population. “Ultimately,” he noted, “we are inter- $35,000 or more were in less than very good or excellent ested in whether households have the means to meet their health. By comparison, one-third of young children in needs for goods and for services, including . education and families with income below $10,000 were in less than very medical care, which build and maintain human capital.”* good health. Moreover, in recent years the number of poor With these observations in mind, the Federal children whose health is fair or poor has increased relative Reserve Bank of New York organized this conference— to the number of nonpoor children in these same health “Unequal Incomes, Unequal Outcomes?”—to focus on the categories. In 1987, for every nonpoor child with health evolution of more direct measures of the material well- problems, there were close to two children in poverty in being of Americans. Of particular concern was the impact poor health; by 1996, that ratio had risen to 2.7. of income inequality on trends in health, housing, and Geronimus identified a set of young people at crime victimization. Conference participants also examined particular risk of high mortality rates. She observed that some of the changes in policymakers’ responses to these in some U.S. communities—especially urban areas in the trends, especially in the areas of education financing and North—young people cannot expect to survive through local governance. Finally, the participants discussed efforts middle-adulthood. Whites generally fare substantially to evaluate the social consequences of policy reforms and better than African-Americans, yet whites in poor neigh- offered some guidelines on the best direction for future borhoods in northern cities experience mortality rates research and policy initiatives. roughly comparable to those of African-Americans nation- wide. Furthermore, among the urban African-American UNEQUAL OUTCOMES poor, mortality rates worsened relative to those of whites from 1980 to 1990. Geronimus also indicated HEALTH that circulatory disease—not homicide—has been the most Both Barbara Wolfe and Arline Geronimus focused on important contributor to the higher mortality rates health as a direct measure of economic well-being that across all poor populations. FRBNY ECONOMIC POLICY REVIEW / SEPTEMBER 1999 3 Examining health issues in a special address to the increased reliance on theft-prevention devices by higher conference,