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Hurricane Kate Information from NHC Advisory 12, 4:00 PM EST Tuesday November 11, 2015 Kate Is Moving Toward the East-Northeast Near 44 Mph

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Hurricane Kate Information from NHC Advisory 12, 4:00 PM EST Tuesday November 11, 2015 Kate Is Moving Toward the East-Northeast Near 44 Mph HURRICANE TRACKING ADVISORY eVENT™ Hurricane Kate Information from NHC Advisory 12, 4:00 PM EST Tuesday November 11, 2015 Kate is moving toward the east-northeast near 44 mph. A slower motion toward the east-northeast to northeastward is expected during the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds remain near 75 mph with higher gusts. Kate is forecast to lose tropical characteristics by tonight but remain a strong post-tropical cyclone during the next couple of days. This will be the last Wills Re eVENT advisory on Kate. Intensity Measures Position & Heading U.S. Landfall (NHC) Max Sustained Wind 75 mph Position Relative to 1005 NE of Bermuda Speed: (tropical storm) Land: Est. Time & Region: n/a Min Central Pressure: 985 mb Coordinates: 38.2 N, 56.4 W Trop. Storm Force Est. Max Sustained Wind 45 miles Bearing/Speed: ENE or 65 degrees at 44 mph n/a Winds Extent: Speed: Forecast Summary The current NHC forecast map (below left) shows Kate heading out to sea with maximum sustained winds near 75 mph and remaining a strong post-tropical cyclone during the next couple of days. The windfield map (below right) is based on the NHC’s forecast track and also shows Kate has moved past the Bahamas and then heading out to sea at Category 1 hurricane strength. To illustrate the uncertainty in Kate’s forecast track, forecast tracks for all current models are shown on the map in pale gray. Forecast Track for Tropical Storm Kate Forecast Windfield for Tropical Storm Kate (National Hurricane Center) (Based on NHC at 12:00 UTC from Kinetic Analysis Corp.) CA Saint-Pierre Montreal Ottawa ster Boston ooklklyn New York Washington D.C. 11-11 TD Hamilton !S Ï Trop Storm TS Cat 1 !1 0 250 500 1,000 Ï Cat 1 Miles © Copyright 2015 Willis Limited / Willis Re Inc. All rights reserved: No part of this publication may be reproduced, disseminated, distributed, stored in a retrieval system, transmitted or otherwise transferred in any Hazard and damage potential maps produced form or by any means, whether electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise, without the permission of Willis Limited / Willis Re Inc. Some information contained in this document may be compiled from third party sources and we do not guarantee and are not responsible for the accuracy of such. This document is for general guJoaquinnce only and is not intended to be relied upon. Any action based on or in by Willis are based on numerical modeling connection with anything contained herein should be taken only after obtaining specific advice from independent professional advisors of your choice. The views expressed in this document are not necessarily those results from Kinetic Analysis Corporation. of Willis Limited / Willis Re Inc., its parent companies, sister companies, subsidiaries or affiliates (hereinafter “Willis”). Willis is not responsible for the accuracy or completeness of the contents herein and expressly disclaims any responsibility or liability for the reader's application of any of the contents herein to any analysis or other matter, or for any results or conclusions based upon, arising from or in connection with the contents herein, nor do the contents herein guarantee, and should not be construed to guarantee, any particular result or outcome. Willis accepts no responsibility for the content or quality of any third party websites to which we refer. The TAOS real-time hazard and impact forecast information is provided "as is" and without warranties as to performance or any other warranties whether expressed or implied. The user is strongly cautioned to recognize that natural hazards modeling and analysis are subject to many uncertainties. These uncertainties include, but are not limited to, the uncertainties inherent in weather and climate, incomplete or inaccurate weather data, changes to the natural and built environment, limited historical records, and limitations in the state of the art of modeling, as well as limits to the scientific understanding of storm weather phenomena. Anyone making use of the hazard and impact information provided by KAC, or the information contained within, assumes all liability deriving from such use, and agrees to "hold harmless" any and all agencies or individuals associated with its creation. The user agrees to provide any subsequent users of this data with this disclaimer. The publication of the material contained herein is not intended as a representation or warranty that this information is suitable for any general or particular use. 1 of 2 Coastal Watches and Warnings There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Summary of Atlantic Hurricane Activity to Date Benchmarking the 2015 Atlantic Season to Date 2015 Activity versus Average Activity for the years 1950 - 2011 12 Tropical Total Cat 3-5 Storms Hurricanes Hurricanes Tropical Storm avg '50‐'11 Tropical Storm 2015 TS Kate Hurricane avg '50‐'11 Hurricane 2015 TS Joaquin (1/1/15 – 11/10/15) 2015 year to date 11 4 2 Major Hurricane avg '50‐'11 Major Hurricane 2015 TS Ida 2014 year to date (1/1/14 – 11/10/14) 8 6 0 8 TS Henri 1995-2011 season average 14.7 7.9 3.8 TS Grace TS Fred 1950-2011 season average 10.7 6.2 2.7 TS Erika 2015 CSU season forecasts 4 TS Danny HU Kate 8 2 1 HU Joaquin (Colorado State University at August 4,‘15) TS Claudette TS Bill HU Fred M. Joaquin 2015 NOAA season forecasts 6-10 1-4 0-1 STS Ana HU Danny (August 6, 2015) M. Danny 0 May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Tropical Storm Activity to Date 2015 Tropical Storm Activity versus Average Activity Kate is the eleventh named storm and fourth named hurricane of the The graph above shows 2015 Atlantic Hurricane Season activity and 2015 Atlantic Hurricane Season. Last year saw only eight named average occurrence rates since 1950 by date, category and order. It storms by November 11; six were hurricanes, but none were major shows, for example, that Kate became the season’s eleventh named hurricanes. storm on November 11. It also shows the average season has 10.7 tropical storms, 6.2 hurricanes and 2.7 major hurricanes (categories 3- 5). New Tropical Cyclone Potential and Average Remaining Risk NHC Estimates of New Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Formation Average Risk Remaining in the 2015 Atlantic Hurricane Season The map below illustrates the NHC’s estimate of tropical cyclone Atlantic hurricane activity and major hurricane activity (categories 3-5) formation potential over the next 48 hours in the Atlantic. There both peak in September, as the graph below illustrates. The average are currently no such regions. remaining percentage of days with Atlantic hurricane activity at Nov 11 is 2% for all hurricanes and 1% for major hurricanes. National Hurricane Center Tropical Cyclone Formation Estimates on November 11, 2015 Percentage of Days with Active Hurricanes since 1900 60% 100% 48% 80% 36% 60% 24% 40% 12% 20% Average Daily Risk Daily Average Average RemainingRisk 0% 0% Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec All Hurricanes (1-5) Major Hurricanes (3-5) Contact us Roy Cloutier 7760 France Avenue South Minneapolis, MN 55435 [email protected] +1 (952) 841-6652 Page 2 of 2 .
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