Hurricane Kate Information from NHC Advisory 12, 4:00 PM EST Tuesday November 11, 2015 Kate Is Moving Toward the East-Northeast Near 44 Mph

HURRICANE TRACKING ADVISORY eVENT™

Hurricane Kate Information from NHC Advisory 12, 4:00 PM EST Tuesday November 11, 2015 Kate is moving toward the east-northeast near 44 mph. A slower motion toward the east-northeast to northeastward is expected during the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds remain near 75 mph with higher gusts. Kate is forecast to lose tropical characteristics by tonight but remain a strong post-tropical cyclone during the next couple of days. This will be the last Wills Re eVENT advisory on Kate.

Intensity Measures Position & Heading U.S. Landfall (NHC)

Max Sustained Wind 75 mph Position Relative to 1005 NE of Bermuda Speed: (tropical storm) Land: Est. Time & Region: n/a Min Central Pressure: 985 mb Coordinates: 38.2 N, 56.4 W

Trop. Storm Force Est. Max Sustained Wind 45 miles Bearing/Speed: ENE or 65 degrees at 44 mph n/a Winds Extent: Speed: Forecast Summary  The current NHC forecast map (below left) shows Kate heading out to sea with maximum sustained winds near 75 mph and remaining a strong post-tropical cyclone during the next couple of days.  The windfield map (below right) is based on the NHC’s forecast track and also shows Kate has moved past the Bahamas and then heading out to sea at Category 1 hurricane strength. To illustrate the uncertainty in Kate’s forecast track, forecast tracks for all current models are shown on the map in pale gray.

Forecast Track for Tropical Storm Kate Forecast Windfield for Tropical Storm Kate (National Hurricane Center) (Based on NHC at 12:00 UTC from Kinetic Analysis Corp.)

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Montreal Ottawa

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11-11

TD Hamilton !S Ï Trop Storm TS Cat 1 !1 0 250 500 1,000 Ï Cat 1 Miles

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Coastal Watches and Warnings There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Summary of Atlantic Hurricane Activity to Date Benchmarking the 2015 Atlantic Season to Date 2015 Activity versus Average Activity for the years 1950 - 2011 Tropical Total Cat 3-5 12

Storms Hurricanes Hurricanes Tropical Storm avg '50‐'11 Tropical Storm 2015 TS Kate Hurricane avg '50‐'11 Hurricane 2015 TS Joaquin (1/1/15 – 11/10/15) 2015 year to date 11 4 2 Major Hurricane avg '50‐'11 Major Hurricane 2015 TS Ida

2014 year to date (1/1/14 – 11/10/14) 8 6 0 8 TS Henri

1995-2011 season average 14.7 7.9 3.8 TS Grace TS Fred 1950-2011 season average 10.7 6.2 2.7 TS Erika 2015 CSU season forecasts 4 TS Danny HU Kate 8 2 1 HU Joaquin (Colorado State University at August 4,‘15) TS Claudette TS Bill HU Fred M. Joaquin 2015 NOAA season forecasts 6-10 1-4 0-1 STS Ana HU Danny (August 6, 2015) M. Danny 0 May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Tropical Storm Activity to Date 2015 Tropical Storm Activity versus Average Activity Kate is the eleventh named storm and fourth named hurricane of the The graph above shows 2015 Atlantic Hurricane Season activity and 2015 Atlantic Hurricane Season. Last year saw only eight named average occurrence rates since 1950 by date, category and order. It storms by November 11; six were hurricanes, but none were major shows, for example, that Kate became the season’s eleventh named hurricanes. storm on November 11. It also shows the average season has 10.7 tropical storms, 6.2 hurricanes and 2.7 major hurricanes (categories 3- 5).

New Tropical Cyclone Potential and Average Remaining Risk NHC Estimates of New Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Formation Average Risk Remaining in the 2015 Atlantic Hurricane Season The map below illustrates the NHC’s estimate of tropical cyclone Atlantic hurricane activity and major hurricane activity (categories 3-5) formation potential over the next 48 hours in the Atlantic. There both peak in September, as the graph below illustrates. The average are currently no such regions. remaining percentage of days with Atlantic hurricane activity at Nov 11 is 2% for all hurricanes and 1% for major hurricanes.

National Hurricane Center Tropical Cyclone Formation Estimates on November 11, 2015 Percentage of Days with Active Hurricanes since 1900

60% 100%

48% 80%

36% 60%

24% 40%

12% 20% Risk Daily Average Average RemainingRisk 0% 0% Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

All Hurricanes (1-5) Major Hurricanes (3-5)

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