Central Lancashire Employment Land Study – Key Issues Report Chorley, Preston and South Ribble Councils
S153(e)/ Key Issues Report – Final Report/November 2017/BE Group Central Lancashire Employment Land Study – Key Issues Report Chorley, Preston and South Ribble Councils
CONTENTS
1.0 INTRODUCTION ...... 1 2.0 CENTRAL LANCASHIRE IN CONTEXT ...... 3 4.0 THE MARKET CONTEXT ...... 11 5.0 GROWTH FORECASTS – JOBS ...... 17 6.0 OBJECTIVELY ASSESSED NEEDS ...... 21 7.0 EMPLOYMENT LAND and PREMISES SUPPLY ...... 26 8.0 RECOMMENDATIONS ...... 32 9.0 COMMERCIAL HEADLINES ...... 37
S153(e)/ Key Issues Report – Final Report/November 2017/BE Group Central Lancashire Employment Land Study – Key Issues Report Chorley, Preston and South Ribble Councils
1.0 INTRODUCTION
Introduction 1.1 This Key Issues Report provides a synopsis of the key findings of the Employment Land Study for the Central Lancashire sub-region of Chorley, Preston and South Ribble (see Figure 1). It was carried out by BE Group on behalf of Chorley and South Ribble Borough Councils, as well as Preston City Council.
Figure 1 – Central Lancashire
1.2 This Employment Land Study has been carried out to provide a common evidence base for all three local authorities on employment matters, to compliment the Central Lancashire Strategic Housing Market Area Assessment and meet the requirements of the National Planning Policy Framework and Planning Practice Guidance. The evidence will be used to support the development of Local Plan documents for Central Lancashire.
1.3 The Key Issues Report summarises and brings together the main findings of the Employment Land Study Technical Report. As findings have been condensed it does not follow an identical format to the Technical Report but does include references to where more detail can be found regarding key findings in the Technical Report.
S153(e)/ Key Issues Report – Final Report/November 2017/BE Group 1 Central Lancashire Employment Land Study – Key Issues Report Chorley, Preston and South Ribble Councils
Methodology 1.4 Several research methods have been used, including site visits and interviews with stakeholders such as developers, investors and their agents. Major employers in Central Lancashire have been individually consulted, as have key public-sector agencies and Parish/Town Councils. A telephone survey of 850 local businesses was completed. The property market in the neighbouring local authority areas of Central Lancashire’s Functional Economic Market Area (FEMA) has been reviewed. Finally, the land supply has been assessed against forecast data to understand future land need. This comprises both ‘Policy Off’ and ‘Policy On’ forecasts, the latter accounting for the impacts of City Deal and the Central Lancashire’s two strategic sites – The Cuerden Strategic Site and the Samlesbury Enterprise Zone (part of the Lancashire Enterprise Zone).
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2.0 CENTRAL LANCASHIRE IN CONTEXT
Technical Report Reference – More detail on the findings summarised below can be found in Section 3.0: Economic Context Assessment of the Technical Report.
The Central Lancashire Economy Key Figures – Findings Population/Workforce
2.1 Central Lancashire, and particularly Chorley, has a 2016 Population: 366,300, growing population both through natural factors but increased by 5.2 percent since 2006 also through its ability to attract residents from other UK Local Authorities, along with some international 75.6 percent of working age people in employment migration. 4.9 percent unemployed
2.2 Preston has higher proportion of people aged 15-24 8.2 percent of workers self- employed and a lower proportion of people over 65, than wider averages, reflecting, at least in part, the local student 2.8 percent work from home
population associated with the University of Central 37.9 percent qualified to Lancashire. NVQ Level 4, rising to 50 percent in Chorley
2.3 Central Lancashire is economically active, with activity Chorley a focus for staff in professional occupations, rates ranging from 83.4 percent in South Ribble to Preston/South Ribble focus 68.5 percent in Preston, against a national average of for skilled trades and caring/service employment 74.2 percent. Self-Employment and Homeworking rates are average overall but strongest in Chorley. Key Figures – Economy
12,995 businesses trading 2.4 The average Central Lancashire resident earns more in 2016, increased by 2013 than the average Central Lancashire worker in South percent since 2010
Ribble and Chorley. In Preston, the opposite is true On average, there are 58 businesses per 1,000 which reflects the in-commuting of highly paid service working age residents sector workers to the City. Growth sectors include Construction, ICT, business 2.5 The public sector is strong in Central Lancashire, but administration, retail/wholesale and public not excessively so for the county or region. Public admin. employment is focused in the health sectors of 97.7 percent of businesses Chorley and Preston and in administration in Preston. are Micro/Small, employing less than 50 The Central Lancashire health sector has lost 2,300 jobs since 2009 while administration gained 1,187.
S153(e)/ Key Issues Report – Final Report/November 2017/BE Group 3 Central Lancashire Employment Land Study – Key Issues Report Chorley, Preston and South Ribble Councils
2.6 In the private sector, Construction is a major strength accounting for 9.6 percent of employment. South Ribble saw a gain of 2,000 jobs in this sector over 2009-2015.
2.7 Service sector strengths are in business administration and support services and information and communication, which accounted for 12.5 percent of employment in 2016. Preston saw its best growth in business administration, gaining some 2,300 jobs over 2009-2015. However, Chorley recorded a decrease of 2,800 jobs in this sector, over the same period, a surprising level of reduction which, which is difficult to attribute to any specific cause. Good growth was also observed in information and communication. This sector grew by some 1,300 jobs in South Ribble, but saw a 1,000- job reduction in Preston.
2.8 Manufacturing and logistics are strengths of South Ribble, accounting for 15.7 percent of employment in the Borough, against 11.0 percent across Central Lancashire, 14.4 percent regionally and 12.8 percent nationally. This is despite an employment reduction in manufacturing employment of some 10 percent, or around 1,400 jobs, across Central Lancashire, over 2009-2015. That reduction was spread relatively evenly through the three local authorities, each seeing 400-600 jobs reduced.
The Functional Economic Market Area Technical Report Reference – More detail on the Functional Economic Market Area (FEMA) of Central Lancashire can be found in Section 7.0: Functional Economic Market Area of the Technical Report.
2.9 The FEMA for Central Lancashire includes the Fylde Coast local authority areas of Blackpool, Fylde and Wyre which have strong links to Preston via the M55/A583. In Pennine Lancashire, Blackburn with Darwen and Ribble Valley also fall within the economic catchment area of Preston. West Lancashire has strong connections to South Ribble via the M6/M58, A59 and comparable routes. Finally, Chorley has a pronounced relationship with its Greater Manchester neighbours of Bolton and Wigan as a net exporter of labour. Some overlapping market issues are described in Table 1.
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Table 1 – FEMA Issues (areas listed in alphabetical order) Blackburn with Darwen – The Whitebirk Site, at Junction 6, M65 is the closest competing strategic location to the Cuerden Strategic Site, it is expected to deliver larger B2/B8 uses over the next few years, but has yet to do so. Blackpool – There will be a likely overlap in the aviation sector between Blackpool Airport and the Lancashire (Samlesbury-Warton) Enterprise Zones. However, there are also clear differences with the Lancashire Enterprise Zone focused on aviation manufacture and the BAE supply chain. Blackpool Airport by comparison is a civilian and commercial facility, with a focus on the operational aspects of the aviation sector. Bolton – The 80 ha Cutacre development off Junction 4, M61 is a major logistics scheme, with considerable spare capacity, which will compete with the Cuerden Strategic Site/Junction 31(a), Preston for requirements. Fylde – There are clear service sector linkages along the M55 Corridor, between Whitehills and Preston. However, Whitehills has seen little recent growth and is not attracting larger inward investment opportunities that might otherwise have gone to Central Lancashire. Ribble Valley – There is a cross boundary labour flow, particularly along the A59 and to the shared BAE Samlesbury site. West Lancashire – Strategic scale will be focused around Skelmersdale. Skelmersdale is an established and growing logistics location which will compete with Central Lancashire for logistics and industrial requirements emerging from the growing Liverpool Superport. Wigan – Local planning has allowed for several strategic sites here, which may compete with Central Lancashire. However, these are expected to deliver mostly housing options in the short-medium term. Wyre – Hillhouse Business Park in Thornton-Cleveleys is expected to meet large-scale chemicals sector requirements in the region, especially when combined with a growing chemicals sector offer in West Runcorn.
Source: BE Group, 2017
S153(e)/ Key Issues Report – Final Report/November 2017/BE Group 5 Central Lancashire Employment Land Study – Key Issues Report Chorley, Preston and South Ribble Councils
3.0 STAKEHOLDER ENGAGEMENT
Engagement Completed with:
850 26 12 10 Parish/ NHS/ Local Businesses Larger Employers Developers/Investors Property Agents Town Councils Colleges/ UCLan
Local Businesses Technical Report Reference – More detail on local business views can be found in Section 6.0: Demand Assessment – Company Survey of the Technical Report.
3.1 The local business survey results reflect the sub region’s local economy structure, with responses from industrial companies dominating in South Ribble and office businesses in Chorley and particularly Preston. Most respondents were micro businesses, employing less than ten staff.
3.2 Business confidence is moderately strong, with most Respondents in all three local companies forecasting slight growth or a static position, but authority areas are few indicating profitability, staff retention, trade and other highly satisfied with facilities and factors will decline in the next few years. services in Central Lancashire. Complaints were 3.3 Of the 850 businesses contacted, around 10 percent or 86 businesses are considering moving premises within the next three years. Demand is for unserviced offices, required by 37 respondents and industrial/warehouse space, required by 39. Demand for serviced offices and land was modest.
3.4 Most businesses want units of up to 2,000 sqft/200 sqm, with Chorley and South Ribble companies favouring The main stated 1,000 sqft/100 sqm options and Preston ones seeking reasons for trading in 1,000-2,000 sqft/100-200 sqm units. Individual Central Lancashire were its accessibility to industrial and warehouse requirements extend up to customers, affordability 20,000-50,000 sqft/2,000-5,000 sqm however. The and availability of premises, as well as preference is for freehold rather than leasehold being the home of the business owners. premises. While Central Lancashire has enough marketed premises to meet these requirements overall, there is a strong shortage of freehold options in all three local authority areas and for all
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types and sizes of premises.
Larger Employers Technical Report Reference – More detail on larger business views can be found in Section 5.0: Demand Assessment – Stakeholder Consultations (paragraphs 5.4-5.14) of the Technical Report
3.5 Larger businesses are also seeking growth although prospects are somewhat subdued on research carried out in 2015, for South Ribble, and there is a degree of concern about long term economic conditions in
the face of Brexit. “Chorley is a ‘go ahead’ town with an engaging local authority which was and continues to be very 3.6 Despite these concerns, only two business friendly…” Large Business Comment businesses have actively reduced staffing levels and/or property holdings over the last few years while ten businesses continue to aspire for growth. Demand is for industrial, warehouse premises of up to 10,000 sqft/1,000 sqm, offices of 5,000-7,000 sqft/500-700 sqm and open storage/operational sites of up to 16 ha. These are requirements which are difficult to meet locally.
Developers/Investors Technical Report Reference – More detail on local business views can be found in Section 5.0: Demand Assessment – Stakeholder Consultations (paragraphs 5.15- 5.21) of the Technical Report
3.7 Developers and landowners/investors recognise that demand for industrial space is strong in all three Boroughs and are actively seeking to acquire and refurbish second- hand schemes in Central Lancashire to meet those needs. Viability and rental levels are still a barrier to new speculative development though, except for light industrial units of sub 1,000 sqft/100 sqm which have been successfully and viably delivered in several locations in South Ribble. More developments of this type are likely.
S153(e)/ Key Issues Report – Final Report/November 2017/BE Group 7 Central Lancashire Employment Land Study – Key Issues Report Chorley, Preston and South Ribble Councils
3.8 In terms of offices, micro business suites of no more than 700 “While … is unlikely to engage in any further sqft/70 sqm are desirable and new build development in Central Lancashire schemes offering such space in the short-medium term, it is actively seeking new acquisitions of second hand have been a success in all office and industrial units in all three Central Lancashire local authority areas. … local three local authority areas. demand remains strong, while the supply, Demand for larger space is particularly of larger units is limited.” Regional Developer Comment more variable and Preston City Centre retains a sizable oversupply of stock.
3.9 Viability issues make speculative development of offices unlikely except for specialist schemes such as the Chorley Digital Health Park.
Property Agents Technical Report Reference – More detail on local business views can be found in Section 4.0: Demand Assessment – Property Market Assessment (paragraphs 4.27- 4.33) of the Technical Report
3.10 Property market stakeholders highlighted the need for further employment land “[There are] Two key geographic options, although rents and prices markets – North East Preston and are, with some exceptions, still below Walton Summit/Moss Side, South Ribble. With Buckshaw Village the levels needed to support emerging as a third.” speculative schemes. Local industrial Regional Agent Comment demand is for premises up to 1,500 sqm.
3.11 Larger businesses are looking for industrial and warehouse units of up to 50,000 sqft/5,000 sqm and there is an undersupply of premises in all three areas, and for all types and tenures within this size range. Rents for reasonable quality space are at £6.50/sqft although the best light industrial schemes can attract rents of up to £10/sqft.
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3.12 Local office market demand is more
varied, but Preston, and to a “Preston has proven to be a popular location lesser degree Chorley, are amongst [office] occupiers…the most popular configuration is 2-4 person suites, up to 50 sqm. viewed as having reasonable Generally, these will be marketed at £10/sqft…but rates of up to £15/sqft could be local markets, mostly for expected towards the City Centre.” small suites of 500 sqft/50 sqm or Regional Agent Comment less. Rents of around £10-12/sqft are achievable generally, rising to £14.50/sqft in Ackhurst Park, Chorley and £15/sqft in Preston City Centre. While some City Centre schemes are doing well, the overall picture is of an oversupply of secondary options and a lack of Grade A space which would allow Preston to compete for key regional requirements.
Parish/Town Councils Technical Report Reference – More detail on Town, Parish, Neighbourhood views can be found in Section 5.0: Demand Assessment – Stakeholder Consultations (paragraph 5.25 and Table 28) of the Technical Report
3.13 Central Lancashire’s Town, Parish and Neighbourhood Councils were consulted by letter, and eight responses secured. Generally, these supported the use and protection of existing employment sites and employment areas for B-Class use, along with several proposed retail/leisure facilities such as the Cottam Hall Brickworks Scheme, Ingol, Preston. No completely new sites were put forward for B1/B2/B8 uses, however.
Other Stakeholders Technical Report Reference – More detail on the views of these other, primarily educational stakeholders, can be found in Section 9.0: Demand Assessment – Needs of Non B-Class (paragraphs 9.25-9.55) of the Technical Report
3.14 UCLan has a Masterplan Framework for the delivery of a further £200 million Preston College has invested some in investment, in Preston, to 2025. £25 million in new facilities over the last 5 years. Runshaw College The Masterplan, if delivered in full recently invested £6.2 million in a would provide 36,462 sqm (gross) new, 2,056 sqm Science and Engineering Innovation Centre. of additional floorspace comprising infill development and Campus extensions
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south, towards the City Centre. Relevant projects include the 8,390 sqm Engineering Innovation Centre and a Construction Skills Hub for construction sector skills and
training.
3.15 The two further education colleges have invested extensively in their property holdings over the last 20 years and have no further requirements. Runshaw College is, for financial reasons, scaling down its adult education facilities in Chorley, freeing up space for other uses in Chorley Town Centre. A growing population in Central Lancashire will generate further needs for health and school facilities, which are being
planned for. No current plans encroach on local B-Class employment uses or land.
S153(e)/ Key Issues Report – Final Report/November 2017/BE Group 10 Central Lancashire Employment Land Study – Key Issues Report Chorley, Preston and South Ribble Councils
4.0 THE MARKET CONTEXT
4.1 From research completed for this study, including consultations with businesses, developers/investors and their agents (as summarised above), review of past property transactions, business enquiry data and the regional/national market picture, the premises needs of Central Lancashire have been identified. These needs are summarised in Tables 2 and 3 (overleaf)
Technical Report Reference – Tables 2-3 relate to Tables 67-68, pages 214-218, of Section 11.0: Conclusions of the Technical Report. The full Market Assessment which informed these tables can be found in Section 4.0 of the Technical Report.
S153(e)/ Key Issues Report – Final Report/November 2017/BE Group 11 Central Lancashire Employment Land Study – Key Issues Report Chorley, Preston and South Ribble Councils
Table 2 – Premises Need by Type – Local Needs
Size Evidence of Demand Preferred Locations Type of Need Range Light Industrial Mostly 0- Main product delivered speculatively since 2015, at Buckshaw Village Preferred are smaller infill sites in modern industrial estates, accessible Units, 1,000 and South Rings, Cuerden. All units sold or let off plan before to the strategic road network and in proximity to services. In addition to Including sqft/0-100 completion South Rings, Cuerden and Matrix Point, Buckshaw, where premises Freehold sqm, not Around 40% of public enquiries in South Ribble were for units of 0-100 have been delivered, some other viable locations could include: Options exceeding sqm, comparable amounts in the other Boroughs for sub-300 sqm units Chorley 3,000 Business Survey identified good demand for 100-200 sqm units sqft/300 EP1.8: Lyons Lane Mill, Townley Street Chorley – centrally located Jobs growth of 4,158 is forecast in the construction sector to 2034 site with a compatible consent sqm (5,729 for Policy-On scenarios for Preston/South Ribble), generating EP1.11: The Revolution, Buckshaw Avenue, Buckshaw Village/ needs for 13,000-17,000 sqm of additional floorspace which is likely to EP1.12: Group 1, Buckshaw Village/ EP1.13: Southern primarily comprise smaller industrial and storage requirements Commercial, Buckshaw Village/ – High grade expansion sites in a Gains in manufacturing jobs are more uncertain, but likely under Policy- key market area of Chorley On allowances for Preston/South Ribble 0-300 sqm units most commonly transacted previously, particularly in Preston Chorley and Preston EP1.1: Whittingham Hospital – A viable/deliverable use option for Stakeholders report significant unmet in all areas and a growing desire the B-Class element here amongst micro business owners to invest in freehold property. This EP1.3: Preston East Employment Area – Open land, accessible to trend is enhanced by the increasing availability of commercial M6 mortgages EP1.7: Land North of Eastway – A viable/deliverable use option for There is a shortage of freehold options the B-Class element here South Ribble E1(e): West Paddock, Leyland – A likely use here although distance from strategic road network and adjacent housing would be issues
Mid-Range 3,000- Two thirds of industrial enquiries were for units of up to 900 sqm in Requirements for premises of this kind seen in all three Boroughs, and Industrial 9,000 Preston the location requirements are similar to the above. Could be Options sqft/300- Agents report steady demand up to 1,500 sqm from local businesses accommodated on most of the sites mentioned above, with allowance looking to grow across all three Boroughs, including freehold options made for greater space needs and increased HGV traffic potential. Including 900 sqm, Freehold with Larger businesses in Central Lancashire commonly have property Options options up requirements up to 1,000 sqm to 10,000 Policy-On jobs forecasts, allowing for Strategic Sites, suggest good sqft/1,000 construction industry jobs growth and reasonable manufacturing sector sqm growth Larger Up to Enquiries data shows market interest for units in all size brackets up to The largest ‘local’ scale requirements which may come from within industrial/ware 50,000 2,300 sqm in South Ribble Central Lancashire. Requirements of this size may only come house units sqft/5,000 Past transaction evidence, suggests that mid-sized units of 1,001-5,000 infrequently, but when they do, Central Lancashire needs to have the
S153(e)/ Key Issues Report – Final Report/November 2017/BE Group 12 Central Lancashire Employment Land Study – Key Issues Report Chorley, Preston and South Ribble Councils
Size Evidence of Demand Preferred Locations Type of Need Range Including sqm are the most common sizes transacted, in South Ribble. 78 Deals at space available to accommodate them if it is to be competitive. Many Freehold this scale were recorded over the last decade requirements will be for a mix of B2 and B8 space and so sites must be Options Agents report regular enquiries in the 4,000-5,000 sqm range for able to accommodate both, including the HGV journey levels and industrial and warehouse options, covering the whole of Central strategic road access requirements of logistics operations. The historic Lancashire market focus for such larger industrial/warehouse premises has been Individual industrial and warehouse requirements, identified thin the South Ribble, but needs extend across Central Lancashire. Some Business Survey, extend up to 2,001-5,000 sqm, with 20 larger viable locations could include: companies, seeking such growth in Central Lancashire over the next three years Chorley South Ribble is forecast to gain some 1,174 storage and distribution jobs, or 39,000 sqm of floorspace to 2034 under Policy-On scenarios EP1.3: Land to the North East of M61 junction (Gale Moss) Chorley – The current Outline planning application seeks units of this size range on a motorway accessible site EP1.15: Land east of Wigan Lane, Clayton-Le-Woods – Scale of site would support larger units although access and proximity to housing may be barriers Preston EP1.2: Red Scar Site H/ EP1.4: Red Scar Industrial Estate – Accessible sites marketed for design and build options in this size range (but could also suit smaller properties, as described above) The largest expansion sites of North East Preston – EP1.10: Preston East Junction 31A M6 and EP1.11: Roman Road Farm – are of a scale which supports such uses. Limitations of Motorway access at Junction 31s (no northbound slip roads) would be barriers though South Ribble The Cuerden Strategic Site will be the prime site for meeting such larger requirements, with the Samlesbury Enterprise Zone meeting specialist needs in advanced manufacturing sectors. C2: Moss Side Test Track, Leyland (Doll Lane) would be a strong secondary location in terms of the scale and quality of premises which could be offered and the critical mass of larger employers nearby Land at Lancashire/Leyland Business Parks, Farington is also of a scale to meet needs although would be less desirable to companies which require immediate motorway/major road access. Walton Summit is also identified as a desirable location for larger industrial operators although there is little land to meet needs at
S153(e)/ Key Issues Report – Final Report/November 2017/BE Group 13 Central Lancashire Employment Land Study – Key Issues Report Chorley, Preston and South Ribble Councils
Size Evidence of Demand Preferred Locations Type of Need Range present. Micro Suites of Office requirements in South Ribble are generally for small suites, with Meeting the smallest office requirements will be a question of premises Business/Start up to 500 40 percent of enquires for sub-100 sqm units rather than land. Evidence is that need is focused in Preston (City -Up Offices sqft/ 50 Two thirds of those enquiring for office space In Chorley sought suites Centre/Docks) and Chorley (Chorley Town/Buckshaw Village) and Managed but sqm of less than 300 sqm. Of this, 35 percent were for less than 93 sqm property owners have been working to sub-divide existing buildings to not necessarily Agents report that in Preston City Centre, the most popular space provide managed/unserviced options. This has met a lot of needs and serviced/busin option is 2-4 person suites, up to 50 sqm. will likely continue to do so. New micro-business offices could be ess centres Chorley has strengths in financial and professional services. Agents provided on a range of sites across Central Lancashire which enjoy report that, outside of Buckshaw Village local businesses are seeking good access to services and public transport, but viability suites of 50 sqm or less considerations will discourage delivery on many sites. The exception is likely to be EP1.5: Euxton Lane, Chorley where a specialist micro- business scheme is actively proposed and supported through funding. Larger offices Up to Almost three quarters of deals in Central Lancashire were for suites of Chorley, Preston and particularly Preston City Centre, could benefit for established 5,000- up to 300 sqm, with the 101-300 sqm size range most active in all three from investment in new modern office premises which could both meet firms/inward 7,000 sqft/ authority areas the growth needs of service sector businesses and allow competition for investors 500-700 Agents suggest demand, focused on Preston and Chorley for suites up inward investment. In practice, achieving financially viable new sqm on to 500 sqm. However, comments from stakeholders and the business development, other than design and build for specific occupiers, is average survey suggests that over time expanding/relocating businesses, plus challenging and likely to remain so for some years yet. However, there an element of inward investment, will generate requirements up to 700 is a strong chance of larger office provision at the Cuerden Strategic sqm Site, serving the Preston Conurbation along with smaller scale office Major gains in office based employment are forecast to 2034. By the provision at EP1.5: Euxton Lane, Chorley. Baseline measure these equate to 5,882 extra jobs and 70,000 sqm of extra floorspace to 2034. Under Policy-On scenarios the Preston/South Several smaller sites may also deliver offices within mixed-use Ribble specific gain would be 9,750 jobs and 115,000 sqm of schemes, where B1(a) development can be cross-funded by other floorspace uses. These include: Over the last decade, a modest level of larger transactions in the 1,000-5,000 sqm range was recorded in Preston, 23 individual deals. Demand may support individual building development of this scale, but Chorley not a scheme of such major offices EP1.6: Cowling Farm, Chorley – Although site’s location may favour industrial uses over offices EP1.15: Land east of Wigan Lane, Clayton-Le-Woods
Preston EP1.1: Whittingham Hospital EP1.7: Land North of Eastbay (formerly Broughton Business Park)
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Size Evidence of Demand Preferred Locations Type of Need Range South Ribble C2: Moss Side Test Track, Leyland (Doll Lane) – B-Class element assumed to be primarily B2/B8 though C1: Pickering’s Farm, Bee Lane, Penwortham – Supporting the Preston market
In Chorley EP1.13: Southern Commercial, Buckshaw Village has been consented and marketed to office users, attracting interest, but has been unable to achieve a viable scheme. A way forward here might be for industrial development which has been successfully delivered on adjacent land. Source: BE Group, 2017
Table 3 – Premises Need by Type – Strategic Needs
Size Evidence of Demand Preferred Locations Type of Need Range RDC Level Likely up to 2016 saw the highest amount of national large shed take-up on The Cuerden Strategic Site is generally accepted as the preferred Logistics 400,000 record. location for motorway-linked logistics and, along with Samlesbury for Facilities sqft/40,000 Against needs however, England only has one year of larger specialist uses, the best location for the largest manufacturing sqm logistics supply remaining and the North West has a shortage of requirements. Central Lancashire has a second motorway accessible Grade A space employment site at EP1.3: Land to the North East of M61 junction (Gale Existing schemes such as Omega, Warrington are reaching Moss) Chorley, although the largest single building which could be capacity, while new sites such as Parkside, St Helens are still some accommodated here would be 27,000 sqm in size. years from providing viable development plots Past completions, including Waitrose, Buckshaw Village, Amazon, The largest expansion sites of North East Preston – EP1.10: Preston Farington; James Hall. Preston and the Wincanton Defence East Junction 31A M6 and EP1.11: Roman Road Farm – are of a scale Logistics Facility, Samlesbury show the viability of Central which supports such uses. Limitations of Motorway access at Junction Lancashire to support major logistics options 31s (no northbound slip roads) would be barriers though. Several local businesses report aspirations to invest in larger logistics and industrial facilities C2: Moss Side Test Track, Leyland (Doll Lane) would be a strong Industrial Likely up to Evidence is that the Samlesbury Enterprise Zone is attracting secondary location in terms of the scale and quality of premises which (Advanced 200,000 interest from a range of manufacturing companies, not all of which could be offered and the critical mass of larger employers nearby. It sqft/20,000 are eligible under Enterprise Zone rules. This generates overspill
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Size Evidence of Demand Preferred Locations Type of Need Range Manufacturing) sqm opportunities for the rest of the Borough would not be of interest to companies that need direct motorway Investment Although most local level demand does not exceed 5,000 sqm, access though, neither would Land at Lancashire/Leyland Business inward investment requirements of up to 20,000 sqm are reported Parks, Farington. by agents for the whole Central Lancashire Catchment Single transactions for up to 45,000 sqm of space have been Walton Summit is also identified as a desirable location for larger achieved at key industrial locations such as Walton Summit industrial operators although there is little land to meet needs at present. Source: BE Group, 2017
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5.0 GROWTH FORECASTS – JOBS
Technical Report Reference – More detail on the jobs forecasting, can be found in Section 8.0: Objectively Assessed Needs (paragraphs 8.28-8.35) of the Technical Report
5.1 Employment forecasts were prepared by Oxford Economics in July 2016. These forecasts projected employment by sector to 2034 for the three authority areas.
5.2 Between 2014 and 2034, total employment in Central Lancashire is forecast to grow by 10,276 jobs, an average of 514 jobs per year. Over half of this jobs growth is anticipated to be in Chorley (+6,412 jobs), with South Ribble adding 4,671 jobs and Preston remaining seeing an overall loss (-808 jobs). Illustrated in Figure 2 is the growth trajectories for employment in each local authority area. As can be seen, Oxford Economics forecast a short-term decline in overall employment numbers in Preston, before returning to a level of negligible change from 2024 onwards.
Figure 2 – Growth Trajectories of Employment in Three Authority Areas to 2034 90000
85000
80000
75000
70000
65000
60000
55000
50000
45000
40000
Chorley Preston South Ribble
Source: Oxford Economics, 2016
5.3 Table 4 summarises the major growth or decline prospects, of sectors relevant to this study, for the three Boroughs. It shows that forecast growth is focused in Construction (primarily in South Ribble), health and administration/professional services. Growth in
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the latter service sectors is concentrated in Chorley and to a lesser degree Preston. All areas will see some declines in manufacturing employment, but the loss is sharpest in South Ribble.
Table 4 – Key Jobs Change, by Sector
Premises Key Jobs Gain/Loss to 2034 Needed Chorley Preston South Ribble Central Lancashire Industrial/ - Construction: Construction: Construction: +4,158 Warehouse +542 +3,027 Manufacturing: Manufacturing: - 2,867 -1,457 Office Human health Administrative Professional, Human health and and social work: and support scientific and social work: +3,035 +2,142 services: +703 technical Administrative and Administrative Professional, activities: +531 support services: and support scientific and +2,660 services: +1,483 technical Professional, scientific Professional, activities: +632 and technical activities: scientific and Public +2,184 technical administration Public administration activities: and defence: - and defence: -2,830 +1,021 2,389
Source: Oxford Economics, 2016
Policy-On Forecasts
Technical Report Reference – More detail on the policy-on jobs forecasting, can be found in Section 8.0: Objectively Assessed Needs (paragraphs 8.47-8.52) of the Technical Report.
5.4 The above are ‘policy-off’ forecasts that do not account for any public-sector plans or strategies for growth above the baseline. In terms of ‘policy-on’ modelling, sensitivity testing has been undertaken to understand the forecast growth, above the baseline, accounting for the impacts of the City Deal initiative on Preston/South Ribble and the South Ribble strategic sites – Cuerden and the Samlesbury Enterprise Zone.
5.5 To create Policy-On forecasts, the following has been considered: The overall parameters of the City Deal, including objectives to deliver 17,000 new dwellings and 20,000 new jobs over 2013-2023. Information where available on the likely jobs capacity at strategic employment sites at Cuerden and Samlesbury, including schedules for Cuerden, set out in the latest Outline planning application and Samlesbury’ s Enterprise Zone
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application, which provides an indication of overall development intents. It is assumed that the growth sectors in the baseline forecasts will get an additional impetus due to the higher population growth in Preston and South Ribble due to the City Deal, estimated to be 25 percent above the projected growth. Furthermore, specific sectors, such as construction, transportation and storage, manufacturing and office-based support services would have an impetus due to the interventions to support the roll-out of employment land. This boost will not be uniform across sectors or areas and it is expected that South Ribble’s impetus would be focussed around construction, transportation and storage and manufacturing and Preston’s impetus would be more focussed on office based support sectors (although industrial uses would still see some uplift). The uplift is assumed to be between 5 and 20 percent above baseline levels.
5.6 The impact of this on Preston is a net gain of 3,540 jobs on the baseline and in South Ribble, the focus of strategic sites, a gain of 15,580 jobs on baseline. Table 5 shows the gains, by key sectors, relevant to this study. Although for the most part the Policy- On allowance just enhances jobs trends already evident, it is worth noting the positive growth now shown in Manufacturing and Transport and Storage, trends not evident in baseline. In the service sectors, the emphasis remains on Health, Professional and Administrative employment.
Table 5 – Policy On Forecast Jobs Growth 2014-2034
SIC Group Preston South Ribble Workforce Growth Workforce Growth 2014-34 2014-34
Manufacturing 776 1,510 Construction 920 4,809 Wholesale and Retail Trade 241 2,667 Transportation and Storage (101) 1,174 Information and Communication 574 1,065 Finance and Insurance 25 392 Real Estate (225) 482 Professional, Scientific and Technical 1,206 1,410 Administrative and Support Service 407 4,189 Public Administration and Defence (2,547) (107) Human Health and Social Work 1,202 662 Other Service Activities (88) 150
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SIC Group Preston South Ribble Workforce Growth Workforce Growth 2014-34 2014-34
Total (Includes Sectors Not Shown 2,732 20,251 Above) Source: Oxford Economics, 2016/BE Group, 2017
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6.0 OBJECTIVELY ASSESSED NEEDS
6.1 To assess need two recognised methods of forecasting have been used creating three distinct models of OAN for the study period 2014-2034. The outputs from these models are outlined in Table 6, for each Borough.
Historic Land Take Up Technical Report Reference – More detail on the historic land take up forecasting, can be found in Section 8.0: Objectively Assessed Needs (paragraphs 8.14-8.27) of the Technical Report
6.2 The first method is a forward projection of historic land take up trends to produce local only projections. Based on this the needs are: Chorley = 95.50 ha Preston = 89.00 ha South Ribble = 88.50 ha.
Central Lancashire total requirement – 273.00 ha
6.3 Figures are inclusive of five year buffer to reflect a choice of sites by size, quality and location and to provide a continuum of supply beyond the end of the 2034 period. Also, to make some allowance for the loss of further employment land to non B-Class uses over the period to 2034.
6.4 Need has been compared to local level supply, which has been backdated from 2016 to 2014, to ensure that the need and supply dates match. Against this backdated supply, Central Lancashire has a shortfall of 81.93 ha to meet local needs, comprising: Chorley – 95.50 ha (need) – 59.75 ha (realistic supply, local only, backdated) = 35.75 ha (further need) Preston – 89.00 ha (need) – 71.69 ha (realistic supply, local only, backdated) = 17.31 ha (further need) South Ribble – 88.50 ha (need) – 56.99 ha (realistic supply, local only) = 31.51 ha (further need).
Labour Demand Technical Report Reference – More detail on the labour demand forecasting, can be found in Section 8.0: Objectively Assessed Needs (paragraphs 8.36-8.66) of the Technical Report
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6.5 The second method looks at jobs growth, as identified in Oxford Economics (2016) forecast modelling. As can be seen in Table 6, the resulting jobs based forecast model suggest that all three Boroughs have sufficient land to meet needs. When a ‘Policy On’ allowance is made, as discussed in Section 5.0 above, Preston has needs of 11.50- 14.90 ha to 2034. In South Ribble, the focus of strategic sites, the needs are much larger at 52.90-53.20 ha. Both Boroughs have sufficient employment land to meet these projected needs, with the greater requirement in South Ribble being supportive of strategic allocations.
Table 6 – Central Lancashire Land Forecast Models – Summary
Local Model A: Land B: C: Buffer D: Surplus Assumptions Authority Stock 2016, Land (five (Shortfall), ha – Need years ha Strategic 2014- further D=A-(B+C) and/or Local 2034, need), ha Supply* ha Local Take Up 59.75 Local 76.40 19.10 (35.75) Based on historic (25 Supply, years) take-up of 3.82 backdated ha/pa. Compares a local growth rate with a local only supply picture Employment based on 59.75 Local +10.60 +2.65 1) 46.50 Based on Chorley adjusted stock – Supply, Growth +1.30 2) 53.25 1) projected growth Policy-Off Model backdated +5.20 sectors 2) projected employment Change change across sectors A local growth only scenario ------Local Take Up 71.69 Local 71.20 17.80 (17.31) Based on historic (23 Supply, years) take-up of 3.56 backdated ha/pa. Compares a local growth rate with a local only supply picture Employment based on 71.69 Local +5.80 +1.45 1) 64.44 Based on adjusted stock – Supply, Growth N/A 2) 78.09 1) projected growth Policy-Off Model backdated -6.40 sectors Preston 2) projected employment Change change across sectors A local growth only scenario Employment based on 71.69 Local +14.90 +3.73 1) 53.06 Based on adjusted stock – Supply, Growth +2.88 2) 57.31 1) projected growth Policy-On Model backdated sectors (with strategic +11.50 sites in SR) 2) projected employment Change change across sectors
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Local Model A: Land B: C: Buffer D: Surplus Assumptions Authority Stock 2016, Land (five (Shortfall), ha – Need years ha Strategic 2014- further D=A-(B+C) and/or Local 2034, need), ha Supply* ha A local/strategic growth scenario Local Take Up 56.99 Local 70.80 17.70 (31.51) Based on historic (25 Supply, years) take-up of 3.54 backdated ha/pa. Compares a local growth rate with a local only supply picture Employment based on 56.99 Local +7.90 +1.98 1) 47.11 Based on adjusted stock – Supply, Growth N/A 2) 63.19 1) projected growth Policy-Off Model backdated -6.20 sectors South 2) projected employment Ribble Change change across sectors A local growth only scenario Employment based on 115.36 +53.20 +13.30 1) 48.86 Based on adjusted stock – Strategic/Loca Growth +13.23 2) 49.23 1) projected growth Policy-On Model l Supply, sectors backdated +52.90 2) projected employment Change change across sectors A local/strategic growth scenario Source: BE Group, 2017 *Backdated land supply at 2014
Employment Land Take-Up/Employment Change Comparison 6.6 In reality, employment change does not translate to land provision in the way set out in the above employment-based models, both policy-on and policy-off. There are several factors that will influence the land requirement and it is necessary to understand the market signals to predict a more accurate employment land requirement. These factors include: To what extent the growth in office employment takes place in town centre locations, at higher densities, rather than in low-density business parks. Preston, for example, will see both higher density development in the City Centre and lower density development in North East Preston. Where growth is predicted in town or city centres different densities would be applied, closer to 100 percent site coverage. Will the decline in jobs lead to the release of land? Experience suggests that even where businesses are contracting, they will continue to hold onto sites in anticipation of future improvement and change. Where jobs are being lost to
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automation, those new automated processes will still require land on which to operate and can lead to higher productivity and growth. Land take-up/property needs can be for different reasons such as modernisation or geographic relocation, land banking for future needs. Expansion may also be within existing premises or on expansion land not accounted for in land allocations.
6.7 However, to test how closely jobs change translates to land take-up, historic trends have been compared for South Ribble only (equivalent exercises are completed for Chorley and Preston in Tables 56-59, pages 146-148 of the Technical Report). Using the same methodology, the land needs based on employment change has been calculated for two historic periods. For this analysis, just baseline (policy-off) forecasts are used as the relevant strategic initiatives had yet to be implemented during the bulk of these historic periods. The long-term period from 1991-2016 and compared to the actual land take-up during that period (Table 7) 2001-2007 which was a period of sustained economic growth nationally (Table 8).
Table 7 – Employment Land Take-Up/Employment Change Comparison 1991- 2016 – South Ribble
Employment Change Total Jobs Land (Ha) Growth 25,900 24.2 Decline (9300) (72.1) Net growth 16,600 (47.9) Historic land take-up - 88.50 Source: BE Group, Oxford Economics, SRBC 2017
Table 8 – Employment Land Take-Up/Employment Change Comparison 2001- 2007 – South Ribble
Employment Change Total Jobs Land (Ha) Growth 6900 1.80
Decline (2700) (11.0) Net growth 4200 (9.20) Historic land take-up - 34.68 Source: BE Group, Oxford Economics, SRBC 2017
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6.8 The two tables show that low net jobs growth during both periods, would have resulted in negative land needs. Even if the sectors predicted to grow only are considered, the projected land requirements represent only a fraction of what was taken up in reality.
6.9 Thus, the trend shows that net jobs growth is not an accurate method of calculating land. The preferred forecasting method is therefore a projection forward of past take-up rates that considers local needs.
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7.0 EMPLOYMENT LAND AND PREMISES SUPPLY
Technical Report Reference – More detail on the employment land and premises supply of Central Lancashire, can be found in Section 10.0: Employment Land and Premises Supply of the Technical Report
7.1 The total Central Lancashire Baseline Supply is 239.89 ha. However, consideration of this supply suggests that these totals include areas of land which will not be brought forward for development, will be developed for non B-Class uses, to meet the needs of specific occupiers only (i.e. expansion space) or where development has now completed. The Realistic Employment Land Supply, allowing for these issues, is 175.29 ha. This is broken down, by local authority are, in Figure 3 below.
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Figure 3 – Land Supply Analysis
Analysis: Key Issues
EP1.1: Great Knowley, Chorley: Site Chorley is now the subject of two Outline planning applications for 288 dwellings on two sites. Some 11.73 ha remains available but subject to physical/ownership constraints EP1.2: Botany Bay, Chorley: The land is now the subject of an Outline planning application to redevelop the Realistic Land Supply
whole 8.8 ha area for a primarily A1/A3 retail park. 52.25 EP1.5: Euxton Lane, Chorley: Non
B-Class uses will take up approx. Key Available Sites, likely to 4.30 ha of the site under current deliver in next five years: proposals EP1.3: Land to the North East EP1.7: Land at Ackhurst Business of M61 junction (Gale Moss) Park, Chorley: Owners Chorley Baseline Land Chorley (6.90 ha): The land is Nissan are proposing to develop the the subject of an Outline Supply site for an enlarged Sui Generis car planning application for 27, showroom. 871 sqm of B2 and B8 85.85 EP1.8: Lyons Lane Mill, Townley accommodation. Potential to Street Chorley: Site has Planning provide larger motorway- consent comprising foe 13 linked units new/refurbished units. Three EP1.5: Euxton Lane, Chorley refurbishments now complete on 0.2 (8.80 ha): Site consented for ha high value mixed-use EP1.10: Stump Lane, Chorley: Site scheme, including a ‘Digital developed Health Park’ with developer EP1.12: Group 1, Buckshaw Village: partners and key funding in Size recalculated to 2.17 ha, from place. 5.40 ha EP1.8: Lyons Lane Mill, EP1.13: Southern Commercial, Townley Street Chorley (0.30 Buckshaw Village: Two remaining ha): Consented for light parcels totalling 3.16 ha. Other land industrial units, partly taken up by mixed A1, A4 and D1 delivered uses. Consent now being sought for a building including three B1 business units and a takeaway restaurant EP1.15: Land east of Wigan Lane, Clayton-Le-Woods: 8.03 ha of a 15.00 ha site remains available for employment uses Six extant planning consents totalling 7.65 ha were also included in the supply. Analysis indicates that only two, totalling 2.40 ha continue to provide available land.
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Preston
Realistic Land Supply
70.68
Key Available Sites, likely to deliver in next five years: EP1.1: Whittingham Hospital (2.50 ha); Part of a major mixed- Analysis: Key Issues use regeneration scheme, EP1.1: Whittingham Hospital: Site currently being progressed. Release of the employment area increased from 1.40 to 2.50 reflecting current mixed- use elements is expected by 2019 for planning consents smaller office and industrial EP1.3: Preston East Employment options Area: Large area of land under Land comprising Employment mixed ownership, seeing Sites EP1.2 and EP1.4 (24.06 incremental take up for a range of ha) is now on the market as Baseline Land proposals which total 8.36 ha some 16 design and build plots. Supply rather than the 13.13 ha shown EP1.3: Preston East EP1.5: Millennium City Park: Employment Area (11.0 ha):
Sizable recent take up/consents, Active employment site, close to 99.52 mean that only one small a Junction 31a, M6 which has development plot of 0.80 ha seen incremental take up for a remains readily developable range of office and industrial EP1.6: Site at Junction 31A M6 facilities. Is expected to continue West Loop: Land under to meet needs for owner development for a car showroom. occupied facilities EP1.9: Riversway: Modest EP1.7: Land North of Eastway development plot of 0.35 ha (2.10 ha); Rapid delivery of a remains. smaller business scheme likely, EP1.10: Preston East Junction linked to a housing development 31A M6: HCA estimate of net EP1.10: Preston East Junction developable area is only 7.08 ha 31A, M6 (7.08 ha, net): Major against a gross of 25.50 ha expansion site for the wider North East Preston employment location. HCA plan to release for development by 2018. Land is large enough to accommodate almost any scheme, including larger motorway-linked logistics.
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Realistic Land Supply
South Ribble 52.36
Key Available Sites, likely to deliver
in next five years: E1(e): West Paddock, Leyland (1.28 ha): Council-owned local growth site for Leyland which could meet micro business needs in the town E1(g): Farington Hall Estate, West of Lancashire Business Park, Farington (22.20): Major development site adjacent to Analysis: Key Issues the Farington Business Parks, likely to be delivered as a major E1(e): West Paddock, mixed-use opportunity, capable Leyland: It is anticipated that Baseline of accommodating the full range around a third of the site Land Supply and sizes of premises needed. should be retained for open B3: South Rings, Cuerden space. 1.28 ha remains (11.05 ha): Much of the land is 54.52 B3: South Rings, Cuerden: in the hands of a local developer Remaining land recalculated who has successfully delivered to 11.05 ha in three plots light industrial units
speculatively over the last two years and intends further comparable development
C2: Moss Side Test Track, Leyland (Doll Lane) (6.08 ha): Despite some issues to address, prospect remains good for a sizable development of major B2/B8 premises here, particularly allowing growth of the advanced manufacturing cluster which exists on the adjacent Moss Side Industrial Estates C1: Pickering’s Farm, Bee Lane, Penwortham (0.45 ha): delivery of an office scheme, as part of the development of significant new community for the Borough.
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Strategic Employment Locations 7.2 South Ribble contains two strategic land allocations – the 65 ha Cuerden Strategic Site and the 72 ha Samlesbury Enterprise Zone. The net land supply of the two is: 58.37 ha. These are strategic locations, to be marketed primarily to companies outside of South Ribble and, in the case of the Enterprise Zone, outside of Lancashire: Cuerden Strategic Site: Development partners, Eric Wright Group and Brookhouse Group, in place and have submitted a hybrid application for the whole site. Proposals include a Southern Employment Area of 17.64 ha focused on larger manufacturing and storage uses and providing up to 80,000 sqm of floorspace. This represents a key opportunity site for Central Lancashire, providing larger logistics options at a main motorway junction. Also proposed is a Northern Business Park of 5.725 ha fronting Lostock Lane and providing up to 26,000 sqm of B1(a) floorspace, delivered in a phased programme over the next 16 years to reflect demand. The two areas would support some 3,000 FTE jobs. Samlesbury Enterprise Zone: Enterprise Zone established since 2011, and with a net developable area of 35 ha within South Ribble. The location has seen major investment in road infrastructure to open it up for business development. Development to date includes the BAE Academy for Skills and Knowledge and the Wincanton Defence Logistics Centre. Marketing is underway, with plots available which could support units of 250 to 35,000 sqm. interest has been established from a range of organisations although securing commitments from businesses in compatible sectors is proving challenging.
Central Lancashire Premises Supply 7.3 Across the study area of Central Lancashire, a total supply of 173,811 sqm of vacant space is reported (see Table 9).
Table 9 – Premises Supply of Central Lancashire Borough Chorley Preston South Ribble Available Industrial/warehouse: 17 Industrial/warehouse: Industrial/warehouse: Premises premises totalling 14,011 47 premises totalling 66 premises totalling sqm 30,896 sqm 63,755 sqm Office: 44 marketed Office: 187 marketed Office: 95 marketed premises totalling 6,825 premises totalling premises totalling sqm 45,801 sqm 12,523 sqm
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Borough Chorley Preston South Ribble Occupancy Rates 97.4 percent by 96.8 percent by 93.9 percent by of the Borough: floorspace floorspace floorspace Industrial 98.0 percent by premises 96.6 percent by 92.7 percent, by numbers premises numbers premises numbers
Occupancy Rates 92.3 percent by 88.3 percent by 89.2 percent by of the Borough: floorspace. floorspace floorspace Offices 92.5 percent by premises 85.7 percent by 76.8 percent by numbers premises numbers premises numbers
Comments/Issues Available industrial units A good range of Good industrial are found almost industrial/warehouse supply up to 500 exclusively in Chorley and options across all sqm, which can meet Buckshaw Village, which size bands up to local demand. More does reflect demand 5,000 sqm moderate but still Reasonable offer of Industrial supply reasonable supply of industrial space up to focus is on 51-500 units greater than 4,000 sqm, available sqm units, argued to 1,000 sqm in size. offices up to 300 sqm be most required by Supply focused in the Key shortage of freehold local micro/small key Employment space for all types and firms Areas – Walton sizes of accommodation. Preston has a Summit, Farington and Bamber Bridge . comprehensive mix of available office Office supply focused
property with options in Leyland/Farington
across all size Most suites sub 50 ranges up to 5,000 sqm in size which will sqm, although most meet a lot of local suites are sub-500 needs but provides sqm in size and little to support larger focused in the City business Centre requirements. Supply likely to meet Key shortage of most local needs but freehold space for all may struggle to types and sizes of accommodate the accommodation. largest firms and
inward investors Key shortage of freehold space for all types and sizes of accommodation.
Source: BE Group, 2017
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8.0 RECOMMENDATIONS
Technical Report Reference – More detail on Study recommendations, can be found in Section 12.0: Recommendations of the Technical Report
8.1 This report has had full regard to the requirements of the NPPF and the PPGs to encourage and deliver growth through the planning system. The recommendations are:
Recommendation 1 – Employment Land Provision Definition For the purpose of this study, the current available local land supply in Central Lancashire is defined as 31 sites, comprising 175.29 ha split: Chorley: 52.25 ha in 14 sites Preston: 70.68 ha in 10 sites South Ribble: 52.36 ha in 7 sites
Recommendation 2 – Employment Areas to be Retained Key/Best Urban Sites and Recommendations This Study has undertaken an independent grading of Employment Areas in Central Lancashire. From this, the following locations are above average in quality and could be designated as ‘key’ or ‘Best Urban’ sites:
Chorley Common Bank Area, Chorley Ackhurst Business Park, Chorley Chorley Business and Technology Park, Euxton Momentum/Southern Commercial Area/Revolution, Buckshaw Village
Preston ELR No 1: Millennium Business Park ELR No 7: Preston East Employment Area ELR No 19: Mondiboard, Longridge Road ELR No 27: Bow Lane ELR No 28: Riversway A – Portway / West Strand ELR No 30: North Preston Employment Area ELR No 54: Winckley Square / Chapel Street ELR No 65: Winckley Square (SW) / East Cliff
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ELR No 66: Winckley Square (South and East) / Cross Street ELR No 84: West Strand / Marsh Lane.
South Ribble Emp. Area 2: Sceptre Way, Bamber Bridge Emp. Area 3: Walton Summit Employment Area Emp. Area 8: Aston Moss, Leyland Emp. Area 10: Lancashire (Enterprises) Business Park, Farington Emp. Area 11: Moss Side Employment Area, Leyland Emp. Area 18: Matrix Park, Buckshaw Village.
At the strategic level, the Samlesbury Enterprise Zone and BAE facility, plus the Cuerden Strategic Site, when delivered, could also be included in this list.
Within the Best Urban Employment Areas, only applications for B-Class use should generally be permitted. Non-B Class uses should only be allowed if unless strongly justified and it is proved that the proposals will not have a significant adverse impact on surrounding local uses. It is accepted that on rare occasions some exceptions may have to be made, for example to provide for complimentary services, or where a site such a Cuerden is established for a mix of uses. Other circumstances which might justify such a change, could include: Delivery of a broader strategy of economic development or urban regeneration If the alternative use delivers significant community and/or employment/skills value compared to uses already present If the Local Authority Area lacks dedicated high quality locations for uses such as trade/motor trade, and there are no viable alternative sites.
General retail/hot food uses should not normally be supported on the Best Urban Employment Areas unless strongly justified, ancillary to the main B-Class uses and clearly intended to serve the business community in the Employment Area. Where alternative uses are considered, the general priority should be linked uses such as car showrooms, tyre and exhaust centres, or trade counters, providing the employment areas have good access to a range of sustainable transport options.
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B/C-D Graded Employment Areas For B/C-D Graded Employment Areas, a more flexible approach could be taken to help facilitate a broad range of economic development. In some cases, a more intensive mixed-use development could provide greater benefit to the local community than if the site was retained solely in employment use.
D/E or E Graded Employment Areas For the two areas graded D/E and E in Preston, there is a more urgent need for change, and ultimately these low-quality locations may no longer be viable for retention as B-Class employment locations.
Other Employment Locations Employment development outside Employment Areas contributes to local employment activity and jobs. Any consideration of future non-employment use, in such locations, should be addressed in the same way as land in Best Urban Employment Areas.
Recommendation 3 – Sites Not Deliverable for Primarily B-Class Schemes In Section 10.0 of the Technical Report, Central Lancashire’s baseline land supply was reviewed in detail. The research identified several employment sites which do not appear to be viable and deliverable for B1/B2/B8 uses, or have significantly reduced net developable areas for B-Class use. They should not be considered part of Central Lancashire’s realistic land supply.
Recommendation 4 – Future Employment Land Provision Chorley Borough Council, Preston City Council and South Ribble Borough Council, should use the roll forward of historic take-up as the main measure of future land need for the period up to 2034. This indicates a need of 273.00 ha to 2034, incorporating a five-year buffer. Measured against Central Lancashire’s current realistic supply, backdated to 2014, there is a shortfall of 84.57 ha comprising: Chorley – 35.75 ha (further need) Preston –17.31 ha (further need) South Ribble – 31.51 ha (further need).
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Recommendation 5 – Protecting Key Local Plan Employment Sites Protection of the remaining employment land for B1/B2/B8 development, particularly key sites and defined employment areas, needs to be considered a policy priority. Further losses in the land supply, to alternative uses, should be resisted.
Recommendation 6 – Meeting Needs Some points to note in identifying further land options are: Chorley If less constrained sites around the M61 exist, they should be considered, although it is accepted that most other land in this area is protected by Green Belt/other countryside designations or is Safeguarded for the Local Plan period Stakeholders highlight Buckshaw Village (also noted for South Ribble) as a focus of demand for both office and industrial uses, along with the adjacent Euxton Lane Corridor Further regeneration opportunities in Chorley Town Centre should also be reviewed.
Preston A recalculation of the supply of HCA owned land in North East Preston may meet much of the identified extra need Otherwise North East Preston, remains a focus for market interest from the local industrial and warehouse sectors Further office options in Preston City Centre and/or Preston Docks would be desirable, both to meet local needs and attract inward investment, but may prove challenging to realise. Regeneration programmes which do include offices, likely as part of a mix of uses, would be welcome.
South Ribble The focus of both demand and recent development activity is the A6/A582 Corridor of Bamber Bridge and Cuerden. Stakeholders regularly sited the lack of opportunity sites at Walton Summit, an industrial estate of regional significance.
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Buckshaw Village is now established as a key market focus in Central Lancashire. Options to maintain the momentum generated here, in both the Chorley and South Ribble parts of the Village, would be welcome.
Recommendation 7 – Encouraging Development Evidence is that several sites and premises schemes will deliver premises, both office and industrial, and the smaller and larger ends of the supply spectrum. Market failure appears most likely for mid-range property options. To address this, it is recommended that the three Councils and other relevant partners proactively explore delivery strategies by which sites can be brought forward, in discussions with owners and developers.
Recommendation 8 – Monitoring Arrangements The three Councils should pursue a common and consistent approach to monitoring their employment land supply.
Recommendation 9 – Future Reviews The Councils should work with neighbouring authorities on issues in which interests will overlap.
Recommendation 10 – Maintain Awareness of External Influences Review and monitor the employment land and premises position and undertake the study again in about five years, as 2034 is a long time in the future and much will happen before then.
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9.0 COMMERCIAL HEADLINES
9.1 This Section provides headlines on the growth potential of the Central Lancashire economy, the nature of property demand and key opportunities for businesses and investors.
Growth Potential
Central Lancashire is forecast to gain 29,395 jobs over 2014-2034 when major strategic investment is accounted for.
Chorley Forecast growth in Chorley is some 6,412 extra jobs over 2014-2034.
Key gains will be in human health and social work, a specialism of Chorley Borough (2,142 extra jobs) and in office- based activities, specifically administrative and support services (1,483 extra jobs) and professional, scientific and technical activities (1,021 extra jobs).
6,412 jobs can be translated into a need for 41,205 sqm of floorspace or some 10-11 ha of land
Preston Preston will benefit from City Deal investment and growth in housing and population. Allowing for this policy, the jobs growth will be 2,732 extra jobs over 2014-2034.
Specific sectors would have an impetus due to the interventions to support the roll-out of employment land and delivery of housing including construction (920 extra jobs) although Preston’s impetus is expected to be focussed on office based support sectors (e.g. 1,206 extra jobs in professional and scientific uses), plus the health sector (1,202 extra jobs).
2,732 jobs can be translated into a need for 58,291 sqm of floorspace or some 15 ha of land
South Ribble South Ribble is the focus of strategic investment into Central Lancashire, the home of the Cuerden Strategic Site, the Samlesbury Enterprise Zone and City Deal investment. Combined with baseline growth, the result is a forecast gain in jobs of 20,251 over 2014-2034.
Most sectors will benefit from strategic investment, but particular gain will be seen in construction (4,809 extra jobs) through the development projects resulting; logistics (1,174 extra jobs in transport/storage, plus 2,667 in wholesale and retail) a beneficiary of City Deal and a development focus on Cuerden; manufacturing, with Samlesbury a focus for advanced manufacturing (1,510 extra jobs) and office-based admin and support services (4,189 extra jobs).
20,251 jobs can be translated into a need for 207,545 sqm of floorspace or some 53 ha of land.
Industrial 9.2 The headline event of Central Lancashire in the last few years has been the speculative development of sub 100 sqm/1,000 sqft light industrial units Buckshaw Village and South Rings, Cuerden. All were sold or let off plan before completion.
9.3 All the sources examined in this study show a strong need for light industrial units of 0-300 sqm/3,000 sqft, across Central Lancashire, with a particular emphasis on freehold options. This is driven by expanding sectors such as construction and
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engineering, but particularly a growing desire amongst micro business owners to invest in freehold property, both to provide independence for business operations and as a personal investment opportunity.
9.4 Demand is not limited to light industrial space however, and evidence from enquiries, transactions and stakeholder consultations suggests steady demand up to 1,500 sqm/15,000 sqft from local businesses looking to grow across all three Boroughs, including freehold options. This is supported by this Study’s independent discussions with major businesses who report property requirements of up to 1,000 sqm/10,000 sqft.
9.5 In South Ribble specifically, demand extends further upwards, with noted market interest for units in all size brackets up to 2,300 sqm/23,000 sqft. Individual industrial and warehouse requirements, identified in the Business Survey, extend up to 2,001- 5,000 sqm/ 2,0000-50,000 sqft.
9.6 Locations of specific interest for companies include Buckshaw Village and the Euxton Lane Corridor of Chorley/South Ribble; South Rings, Cuerden; Walton Summit and Ackhurst Park, Chorley. In Preston, the areas of industrial demand are focused around the Docks and North East Preston. Rents for reasonable quality space are at £6.50/sqft although the best light industrial schemes can achieve up to £10/sqft.
9.7 Drivers for larger requirements moving forward will include Samlesbury Enterprise Zone which is attracting interest from a range of manufacturing companies, not all of which are eligible to locate in the Zone under Enterprise Zone rules. This generates overspill opportunities for the rest of South Ribble and Central Lancashire.
9.8 In terms of supply, there is an urgent need for more modern light industrial space across Central Lancashire and developers are looking to fill that gap. At south Rings, Roundhouse is looking to repeat its success with speculative units with a next phase of 90 sqm/900 sqft properties on land at Craven Drive. In Chorley, land at Euxton Lane, Chorley (Site EP1.5) the wider Digital Health Park facility, being part delivered by the Council and will provide light industrial units alongside more specialist facilities. In Chorley Town, land at Lyons Lane Mill and Stump Lane, has seen delivery of light industrial space but with more room for growth.
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9.9 Buckshaw Village remains a focus for industrial activity, with further small units seeking consent at EP1.13: Southern Commercial. Opportunities remain for further investment here, with some 2.17 ha of land at EP1.12 Group 1, Buckshaw Village on the market for further industrial development.
9.10 Speculative development remains less likely for larger industrial accommodation, but Central Lancashire retains an active market for design and build developments. This is most evident in North East Preston, where 24.06 ha of land at Red Scar Industrial Estate (sites EP1.2/1.4) is actively being marketed for such options and attracting interest. Moving forward in this area, the Homes and Communities Agency will shortly be bringing forward another 25 ha of land at Preston East Junction 31A, M6 (Site EP1.10) which will be available for development and could support the full range of uses, likely with a strong industrial emphasis.
9.11 In South Ribble, the Moss Side Test Track, Leyland (Doll Lane) has a developer partner and provides an opportunity for some 6 ha of industrial-led development land which can build on the established advanced manufacturing offer of Ashton Moss. This is in addition to the strategic scale advanced manufacturing offer at the Samlesbury Enterprise Zone, where 35 ha of land remains available for development with Enterprise Zone incentives. Marketing of this is underway and attracting interest.
9.12 Finally, it is worth noting that while many local and regional developers are not yet pursuing new build schemes, most are seeking to acquire second hand industrial schemes for refurbishment and letting, across Central Lancashire.
Warehousing 9.13 At the strategic scale 2016 saw the highest amount of national large shed take-up on record, while nationally and regionally there are major shortages of logistics accommodation. In the North West, a key issue is that existing major schemes such as Omega, Warrington are reaching capacity, while new sites such as Parkside, St Helens are still some years from providing viable development plots
9.14 Sitting at the confluence of the region’s motorway network, Central Lancashire has long been established as a focus for logistics investment, with an established B8 park at Revolution, Buckshaw Village and multiple large-scale operations elsewhere.
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Recent investments include Amazon who took 168,000 sqft of space at Leyland Business Park.
9.15 Strategic level investments can extend up to 40,000 sqm/400,000 sqft, but agents also report regular local scale enquiries in the 4,000-5,000 sqm/40,000-50,000 sqft range for industrial and warehouse options, covering the whole of Central Lancashire. Requirements of this scale were also noted from some 20 local businesses contacted for the Study.
9.16 The Cuerden Strategic Site, now consented in outline, provides a key opportunity for strategic scale warehousing, delivered rapidly on a motorway linked site at a time when other logistics locations on the M6 Corridor of Lancashire and Cheshire are still some years from being realised. With design and build options of up to 65,000 sqm/650,000 sqft possible, this location can support the largest Regional Distribution Centres.
9.17 North East Preston is a further location of interest for larger B2/B8 operators and the above-mentioned land at Preston East Junction 31A, M6 (Site EP1.10), which sits adjacent to the JC Hall depot will be of interest.
9.18 Finally, it is worth noting the strength of the existing property offer for this use. Stakeholders routinely identify Walton Summit as a location of interest for the largest B2 and B8 requirements. Although there is no expansion land remaining in this area, there is a strong offer of modern, flexible space which has previously met some of the largest requirements in Central Lancashire, up to 45,000 sqm/450,000 sqft in one instance. Comparable comments can be made on Lancashire Business Park, Farington, which has also seen past investment in new large B2/B8 units and has further expansion land surrounding.
Offices 9.19 Evidence is that Preston (the Docks, City Centre and extending south, in market terms, to Cuerden/South Rings) and Chorley are the focus of market activity and interest. Both Boroughs have strengths in finance and insurance and Preston is home to a range of large scale businesses in this sector. Both past transactions and current enquiries/market interest are focused on the smaller end of the market, suites of less than 100 sqm/1,000 sqft and particularly less than 50 sqm/500 sqft. This is the case even in Preston City Centre where reported demand is for 2-4 person suites.
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9.20 In terms of larger properties, while headline grabbing major investments are rare, deals up to 300 sqm/3,000 sqft are more regular, with the 101-300 sqm/1,000-3,000 sqft size range most active in all three authority areas. Agents report that demand exists, from larger companies, for suites of up to 500 sqm/5,000 sqft in Preston and Chorley. However, comments from stakeholders and the business survey suggests that over time expanding/relocating businesses, plus an element of inward investment, will generate requirements up to 700 sqm/7,000 sqft.
9.21 Although local serviced schemes are performing well, the strongest need is for unserviced or ‘managed’ space. Managed offices generally offer suites on flexible terms, with common facilities but little or no on-site staffing. This reduces costs, allowing space to be offered more readily in the price ranges of new micro firms.
9.22 Meeting the smallest office requirements is question of premises rather than land, and owners are actively looking at refurbishment options to meet this need. In Chorley, Ackhurst Park is identified as the prime office location, achieving some of the highest rents in Central Lancashire (£14.50/sqft). The best recent success has been achieved in sub-dividing buildings to provide incubation suites of around 20 sqm/200 sqft each and more such activity is likely. In Central Preston, the equivalent opportunities are diverse but generally focused around Winckley Square and the three blocks extending east to Glovers Court. Several developers/owners have considered options here, albeit often linked to mixed use options.
9.23 In the short term, the key new development opportunity (developed speculatively) in Central Lancashire will be the specialist Digital Health Park scheme at EP1.5: Euxton Lane, Chorley, which has development partners and funding in place, for uses including a digital office building of 5,195 sqm/55,920 sqft. In the longer term however, the most significant opportunity will be the Cuerden Strategic Site where up to 26,000 sqm/260,000 sqft of B1(a) offices of 929- 3,252 sqm/10,000- 35,000 sqft each now has consent. This will be not be delivered speculatively, but provision is judged within realistic take up rates for a 16-year timetable and provides key opportunities to attract inward investment into Central Lancashire.
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