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Understanding the Science of Climate Change Talking Points – Impacts to the Eastern Woodlands and Forests

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Understanding the Science of Climate Change Talking Points – Impacts to the Eastern Woodlands and Forests National Park Service U.S. Department of the Interior Natural Resource Stewardship and Science Understanding the Science of Climate Change Talking Points – Impacts to the Eastern Woodlands and Forests Natural Resource Report NPS/NRSS/CCRP/NRR—2011/470 ON THE COVER Morning Sunrise in Shenandoah National Park; NPS photo. Understanding the Science of Climate Change Talking Points – Impacts to the Eastern Woodlands and Forests Natural Resource Report NPS/NRSS/CCRP/NRR—2011/470 Amanda Schramm National Park Service Pacific West Region 909 First Avenue Seattle, WA 98104 Rachel Loehman Rocky Mountain Research Station Fire Sciences Laboratory 5775 West US Hwy 10 Missoula, MT 59808-9361 With special thanks to the US Forest Service’s Rocky Mountain Research Station and contributions from (in alphabetical order): Pat Campbell, Wendy Cass, Jim Comiskey, John Karish, David Manski, Brian Mitchell, Stephanie Perles, Susan Sachs, John Schmit, and Leigh Welling. Layout and design: Sara Melena, Angie Richman, Caitlin Shenk, and Katherine Stehli. November 2011 U.S. Department of the Interior National Park Service Natural Resource Stewardship and Science Fort Collins, Colorado The National Park Service, Natural Resource Stewardship and Science office in Fort Collins, Colorado publishes a range of reports that address natural resource topics of interest and applicability to a broad audience in the National Park Service and others in natural resource management, including scientists, conservation and environmental con- stituencies, and the public. The Natural Resource Report Series is used to disseminate high-priority, current natural resource management information with managerial application. The series targets a general, diverse audience, and may contain NPS policy considerations or address sensitive issues of management applicability. All manuscripts in the series receive the appropriate level of peer review to ensure that the information is scientifically credible, technically accurate, appropriately written for the intended audience, and designed and published in a pro- fessional manner. This report received informal peer review by subject-matter experts who were not directly involved in the collection, analysis, or reporting of the data. Views, statements, findings, conclusions, recommendations, and data in this report do not necessarily reflect views and policies of the National Park Service, U.S. Department of the Interior. Mention of trade names or commercial products does not constitute endorsement or recommendation for use by the U.S. Government. This report is available from the Climate Change Response Program website: ( http://www.nps.gov/climatechange/ easternwoodlands.cfm ), the Natural Resource Publications Management website: ( http://www.nature.nps.gov/pub- lications/NRPM ) and the IRMA Portal: ( https://irma.nps.gov/App/Reference/Profile/2181215 ). Please cite this publication as: Schramm, A. and R. Loehman. 2011. Understanding the science of climate change: talking points - impacts to the Eastern Woodlands and Forests. Natural Resource Report NPS/NRSS/CCRP/NRR—2011/470. National Park Ser- vice, Fort Collins, Colorado. NPS 909/111736, November 2011 National Park Service ii Contents Introduction ............................................................................................................................................................1 Climate Change Impacts to the Eastern Woodlands and Forests ............................................................................. 2 Summary .........................................................................................................................................................................................2 List of Parks and Refuges .............................................................................................................................................................3 Sectors: Temperature ............................................................................................................................................................................6 The Water Cycle .....................................................................................................................................................................7 Vegetation ................................................................................................................................................................................8 Wildlife .................................................................................................................................................................................. 10 Disturbance ............................................................................................................................................................................12 Cultural Resources ............................................................................................................................................................... 14 Visitor Experience .................................................................................................................................................................15 No Regrets Actions .................................................................................................................................................16 Global Climate Change ...........................................................................................................................................19 Sectors: Temperature and greenhouse gases ................................................................................................................................... 19 Water, Snow, and Ice ............................................................................................................................................................22 Vegetation and Wildlife .......................................................................................................................................................24 Disturbance ...........................................................................................................................................................................27 References ........................................................................................................................................................... 28 iii Climate Change Talking Points NPS/FWS—2011 I. Introduction Purpose Global Section Climate change presents significant risks to our nation’s natural • Temperature and Greenhouse Gases and cultural resources. Although climate change was once be- • Water, Snow, and Ice lieved to be a future problem, there is now unequivocal scien- • Vegetation and Wildlife tific evidence that our planet’s climate system is warming (IPCC 2007a). While many people understand that human emissions • Disturbance of greenhouse gases have significantly contributed to recent ob- Information contained in this document is derived from the served climate changes, fewer are aware of the specific impacts published results of a range of scientific research including these changes will bring. This document is part of a series of historical data, empirical (observed) evidence, and model pro- bioregional summaries that provide key scientific findings about jections (which may use observed or theoretical relationships). climate change and impacts to protected areas. The information While all of the statements are informed by science, not all state- is intended to provide a basic understanding of the science of ments carry the same level of confidence or scientific certainty. climate change, known and expected impacts to resources and Identifying uncertainty is an important part of science but can visitor experience, and actions that can be taken to mitigate and be a major source of confusion for decision makers and the adapt to change. The statements may be used to communicate public. In the strictest sense, all scientific results carry some with managers, frame interpretive programs, and answer gen- level of uncertainty because the scientific method can only eral questions from the public and the media. They also provide “prove” a hypothesis to be false. However, in a practical world, helpful information to consider in developing sustainability society routinely elects to make choices and select options for strategies and long-term management plans. actions that carry an array of uncertain outcomes. Audience The statements in this document have been organized to help managers and their staffs differentiate among current levels The Talking Points documents are primarily intended to provide of uncertainty in climate change science. In doing so, the park and refuge area managers and staff with accessible, up-to- document aims to be consistent with the language and approach date information about climate change and climate change im- taken in the Fourth Assessment on Climate Change reports by pacts to the resources they protect. the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. However, this Organizational Structure document discriminates among only three different levels of uncertainty and does not attempt to ascribe a specific prob- Following the Introduction are three major sections of the ability to any particular level. These are qualitative rather than document: a Regional Section that provides known and ex- quantitative categories, ranked from greatest to least certainty, pected changes to the Eastern Woodlands and
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