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A Risk Analysis Study of Flooding in South Louisiana Marlene Tomaszkiewicz Louisiana State University and Agricultural and Mechanical College

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A Risk Analysis Study of Flooding in South Louisiana Marlene Tomaszkiewicz Louisiana State University and Agricultural and Mechanical College Louisiana State University LSU Digital Commons LSU Master's Theses Graduate School 2003 Staying afloat: a risk analysis study of flooding in south Louisiana Marlene Tomaszkiewicz Louisiana State University and Agricultural and Mechanical College Follow this and additional works at: https://digitalcommons.lsu.edu/gradschool_theses Part of the Civil and Environmental Engineering Commons Recommended Citation Tomaszkiewicz, Marlene, "Staying afloat: a risk analysis study of flooding in south Louisiana" (2003). LSU Master's Theses. 3560. https://digitalcommons.lsu.edu/gradschool_theses/3560 This Thesis is brought to you for free and open access by the Graduate School at LSU Digital Commons. It has been accepted for inclusion in LSU Master's Theses by an authorized graduate school editor of LSU Digital Commons. For more information, please contact [email protected]. STAYING AFLOAT: A RISK ANALYSIS OF FLOODING IN SOUTH LOUISIANA A Thesis Submitted to the Graduate Faculty of the Louisiana State University and Agricultural and Mechanical College in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Science in Civil Engineering in The Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering By Marlene Ann Tomaszkiewicz B.S., Illinois Institute of Technology, 1995 December 2003 TABLE OF CONTENTS LIST OF TABLES……………………………………………………………………………….. iv LIST OF FIGURES………………………………………………………………………………. v ABBREVIATIONS……………………………………………………………………………….vi ABSTRACT…………………………………………………………………………………….. vii CHAPTER 1. INTRODUCTION……………………………….………….……………………. 1 CHAPTER 2. HISTORY AND REVIEW OF LITERATURE…………….……………………. 4 2.1 Overview………………………………………………………………………………….. 4 2.2 History of Flooding in South Louisiana………………………………………………….. 4 2.3 Mississippi, Atchafalaya, and Other Significant Rivers………………………………….. 5 2.4 Flood Insurance……………………………………………………………………………7 2.5 Flood Protection…………………………………………………………………………... 8 2.6 Flood Forecasting and Modeling………………………………………………………..... 9 2.7 Hurricane and Tropical Storm Flood Models…………………………………………… 10 2.8 Conclusions……………………………………………………………………………… 11 CHAPTER 3. METHODOLOGY……………………………………………………………… 12 3.1 Introduction……………………………………………………………………………… 12 3.2 Potential Damage……………………………………………………………………….. 12 3.3 Expected Probability of Flooding……………………………………………………….. 12 3.4 Summary……………………………………………………………………….…………13 CHAPTER 4. DATA…………………………………………………………………………... 15 4.1 Scope of Project…………………………………………………………………………. 15 4.2 Statistical Analysis………………………………………………………………………. 16 4.3 Flood Zone Mapping…………………………………………………………………......18 4.4 Frequency Analysis of Streams…………………………………………………............. 21 4.5 Significant Rainfall Events……………………………………………………………… 21 4.6 Tropical Weather and Coastal Flooding………………………………………………… 23 4.7 Summary………………………………………………………………………………… 23 CHAPTER 5. RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS……………………………………………... 29 5.1 Statistical Analysis……………………………………………………………………… 29 5.2 Flood Zone Mapping……………………………………………………………………. 31 5.3 Streamflow Flood Stage………………………………………………………………….32 5.4 Major Rainfall Events and Property Damage…………………………………………… 33 5.5 Tropical Storms and Hurricanes………………………………………………………… 37 5.6 Coastal Flooding………………………………………………………………………… 41 5.7 Summary of Results…………………………………………………………………….. 41 ii BIBLIOGRAPHY……………………………………………………………………………….. 49 APPENDIX A. SUMMARY OF FLOOD LOSS STATISTICS……………………………….. 52 APPENDIX B. FLOOD ZONE MAPS………………………………………………………… 58 APPENDIX C. DETERMINATION OF 100-YEAR STREAM FLOOD STAGE……………. 69 APPENDIX D. RAINFALL DATA…………………………………………………………..... 99 VITA…………………………………………………………………………………………… 129 iii LIST OF TABLES 1.1 Significant Floods in South Louisiana, 1978 to Present…… ……………………………. 2 4.1 NFIP Participating Communities and Parishes…………………………..……………… 18 4.2 Summary of 100-Year Flood Plots for Selected Streams in South Louisiana…………... 22 4.3. Recent Rainfall Events in South Louisiana Resulting in Damage……………………… 24 5.1 Parishes with Above Average Flood Losses……………………………………………. 30 5.2 Upper 5th Percentile of Flood Losses per Household…………………………………… 31 5.3 Upper 10th Percentile of Flood Losses per Insurance Policy……………………………. 32 5.4 Areal Percentage of Flood Zone Classification by Parish………………………………. 33 5.5 Flood Zone Designation for Communities with High Number of Flood Claims…..…… 34 5.6 Comparison of 100-Year Flood Level and NWS Flood Stage of Selected Streams in South Louisiana…………………………………………………………………………. 35 5.7 Stream Flooding in South Louisiana………………………..……………………………35 5.8 Tropical Weather Impacts on South Louisiana…………………………………………. 43 5.9 Damage from Coastal Flooding in South Louisiana……………………………………. 45 5.10 Communities Affected by High Tide Line……………………………………………… 46 5.11 Risk Analysis……………………………………………………………………………. 47 iv LIST OF FIGURES 1.1 Aerial Photograph of Louisiana ……………....…………………………..……………… 1 2.1 Watersheds of South Louisiana ……………………...………………..…………………. 6 4.1 Scope of Project…………………………………………………………………………. 15 4.2 Contours of Flood Losses per Household……………………………………………….. 17 4.3 Contours of Flood Losses per Policy……………………………………………………..17 4.4 Contours of Households Compared with Special Flood Hazard Areas…………………. 20 5.1 Number of Flood Losses Per Household and Per Policy by Parish……………………... 29 5.2 Contours Showing Highest Flood Loss Rates in South Louisiana……………………… 30 5.3 Rainfall versus Property Damage for May 8, 1995 …………………………………….. 36 5.4 Rainfall versus Property Damage for January 5, 1998 Event …………………………... 37 5.5 Rainfall versus Property Damage for June 26, 1999 Event …………………………….. 38 5.6 Rainfall versus Property Damage for June 6-11, 2001 Event……………………………39 5.7 South Louisiana Communities Affected by High Tide Line……………………………. 42 5.8 Parishes by Risk Classification………………………………………………………….. 48 v ABBREVIATIONS EPA Environmental Protection Agency FEMA Federal Emergency Management Agency FIMA Federal Insurance and Mitigation Administration FIRM Flood Insurance Rate Map FIS Flood Insurance Study GIS Geographic Information System HAZUS Hazards U.S. LIDAR Laser Imaging and Ranging LOMA Letter of Map Amendment MR GO Mississippi River Gulf Outlet NCDC National Climatic Data Center NFIP National Flood Insurance Program NOAA National Oceanic and Atmospheric Agency NWS National Weather Service SDF Special Direct Facility SELA Southeast Louisiana Flood Control Project SFHA Special Flood Hazard Area SLOSH Sea Lake and Overland from Hurricanes Model USACE United States Army Corps of Engineers USGS United States Geological Survey WAVCIS Wave-Current Information System for Coastal Louisiana vi ABSTRACT For decades, South Louisiana has been battling with flood risk. The area has been inundated with flood waters several times, whether it is due to tropical weather, strong rainfall events, or rising waters. This has resulted in millions of dollars in damages, and in some instances, the same home has been affected multiple times. Many agree that South Louisiana is just not a livable area to begin with; the risk is just too great. However, abandoning the area is simply not an option. As a result, the flood risk battle ensues. How much risk are we talking about? The Federal Emergency Management Agency maintains a set of flood maps showing which areas have been determined to be within the 100- year floodplain. However, these maps are not always very accurate. Using a geographical information system, one can compare locations of past flood claims against the flood zone maps. Additionally, hydrologic models from previous storms occurring in the watershed can be thrown into the GIS mix. This study will determine true risk to communities within South Louisiana by comparing existing flood zone maps against locations of past flood claims and against hydrologic models. vii CHAPTER 1. INTRODUCTION Every year, from June to November, residents of south Louisiana focus on the tropics. Why? It is time for another hurricane season. Longtime residents of south Louisiana remember names like Allison, Betsy, Frances as foes of years past. These are names of tropical storms that have brought heavy rainfall to the region. And with rainfall, there is a flood risk. But, how much risk is there? South Louisiana has a unique topography that makes it vulnerable to flooding. It is close to the Gulf of Mexico, is largely wetland area, and is low-lying. Additionally, rivers such as the Mississippi and Atchafalaya tend to have a mind of their own, looking to change course and be prone to overflowing their banks. In south Louisiana, there simply seems no place for rainfall runoff to go. Risk lends itself as a subjective term. Engineers have tried to define flood risk as labeling certain areas in the 100-Year Floodplain. This “100-Year Floodplain” also seems to be a vague term. By definition, it means to have a one percent chance of flooding in a given year, or during a 30- year mortgage, 26 percent. This is considered to be about five times the risk of a house fire over the Figure 1.1. Aerial Photograph of same period.1 Louisiana. Source: Louisiana GIS CD Why is a risk analysis so important? For one, from 1955 through 2001, Louisiana suffered over $6.6 billion in flood damages (current US dollars).2 Additionally, Louisiana ranks as number one among states ranked for payments due to repetitive losses. From 1978 to 1995, 17,941 properties were affected in Louisiana, with 50,356 losses totaling $585,253,556.3 Multiple sources are the culprit for flooding. The Federal Emergency Management Agency defines a flood as: A general and temporary condition of partial or complete inundation of two or more acres of normally dry land
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