Climate and Food Security

Climate and Food Security papers presented at the International Symposium on Climate Variability and Food Security in Developing Countries 5-9 February 1987 New Delhi, India organized by American Association for the Advancement of Science Indian National Science Academy International Rice Research Institute with support from Indian Council for Agricultural Research Indian Meteorological Department Indian Council of Scientific and Industrial Research India Department of Environment, Forest, and Wildlife 1989 International Rice Research Institute P.O. Box 933, 1099 Manila, Philipppines in collaboration with American Association for the Advancement of Science 1333 H. Street, N.W., Washington, D.C., 20005 U.S.A. The International Rice Research Institute (IRRI) was established in 1960 by the Ford and Rockefeller Foundations with the help and approval of the Government of the Philippines. Today IRRI is one ofthe I3 nonprofit international research and training centers supported by the Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research (CGIAR). The CGIAR is sponsored by the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the United Nations, the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development (World Bank), and the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP). The CGIAR consists of 50 donor countries. international and regional organizations, and private foundations. IRRI receives support, through the CGIAR, from a number of donors including the Asian Development Bank. the European Economic Community, the Ford Foun- dation, the International Development Research Centre, the International Fund for Agricultural Development, the OPEC Special Fund, the Rockefeller Foundation, the United Nations Development Programme, the World Bank, and the international aid agencies ofthe following governments: Australia, Belgium, Brazil. Canada, China, Denmark, Finland, France. Federal Republic of Germany, India, Italy, Japan, Mexico, The Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, the Philippines, Saudi Arabia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, United Kingdom, and United States. The responsibility for this publication rests with the International Rice Research Institute. Copyright © International Rice Research Institute 1989 All rights reserved. Except for quotations of short passages for the purpose of criticism and review, no part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in retrieval systems, or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechani- cal, photocopying, recording, or otherwise, without prior permission of IRRI. This permission will not be unreasonably withheld for use for noncommercial purposes. IRRI does not require payment for the noncommercial use of its published works, and hopes that this copyright declaration will not diminish the bona fide use of its research findings in agricultural research and development. The designations employed and the presentation of the material in this publication do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of IRRI concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city, or area, or of its authorities, or the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries. ISBN 971-104-210-X Contents Foreword Preface An agenda for action 1 FOOD SECURITY AND AGRICULTURAL RESEARCH Views on “The new global context for agricultural research: implications for policy” 13 P. A. Oram CLIMATIC VARIABILITY AND CROP YIELDS Sensitivity of agricultural production to climatic change, an update 25 P. A. Oram Climatic variability and agricultural production in temperate regions: six case studies 45 W. J. Maunder Climatic variability and sustainability of crop yields in the humid tropics 57 J. W. Pendleton and T. L. Lawson Climatic variability and food production in West Asia and North Africa 69 P. J. M. Cooper, H. C. Harris, and W. Goebel The relationship between fluctuations in food crop yields and meteorological conditions in China 85 Xin Naiquan and Cheng Yannian CLIMATIC VULNERABILITY OF MAJOR FOOD CROPS Effect of weather and climate on production and vulnerability of rice 93 D. V. Seshu, T. Woodhead, D. P. Garrity, and L. R. Oldeman Vulnerability of rice to climate 115 B. Venkateswarlu The climatic vulnerability of wheat 123 R. B. Austin Effect of temperature on wheat in India 137 V. K. Dadhwal Climatic vulnerability of maize in China 145 Li Jingxiong Climatic vulnerability of major food crops: soybeans 155 H. E. Kauffman and J. E. Gleason Yield stability of sorghum and millet across climates 165 N. G. P. Rao, G. R. K. Rao, and H. S. Acharya Climate vulnerability of sorghum and millet 187 M. V. K. Sivakumar Operational agroclimatic assistance to agriculture in sub-Saharan Africa: a case study 193 K. Traore and M. Konate Assessing climatic variability from long-term crop yield trends 203 D. E. McCloud Impact of climate variation on production of pulses 219 R. Khanna-Chopra and S. K. Sinha CLIMATIC VARIABILITY AND FACTORS OF AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION Global climate variability: interannual and intraseasonal time scales 237 E. M. Rasmusson Monsoon variability and its relationship to agricultural strategies 249 S. Gadgil Soil degradation in relation to climate 257 R. Lal Coping with climatic variation in plant disease control 269 J. C. Zadoks Postharvest losses and food preservation 277 B. L. Amla CLIMATE MODELING AND CLIMATE CHANGE Growing consensus and challenges regarding a greenhouse climate 289 W. Bach Predictability of weather and climate: long-range forecasting of Indian monsoons 305 J. Shukla Stochastic models for rainfall prediction 311 P. K. Das Improving response to drought 321 W. E. Easterling and D. A. Wilhite The world climate impact studies programme 333 G. Golubev Basic data requirements of an agroclimatic system 341 S. Unninayar Simulated yields of wheat and rice in current weather and when ambient CO 2 has doubled 347 F. W. T. Penning de Vries, H. Van Keulen, C. A. Van Diepen, I. G. A. M. Noy, and J. Goudriaan SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC IMPLICATIONS OF CLIMATE-FOOD INTERACTION Potential effects on crop production of carbon dioxide enrichment in the atmosphere and greenhouse-induced climate change 359 N. J. Rosenberg Famine and national and international food prices 375 J. S. Sarma Economic adjustments to climatic variability 389 W. E. Easterling and S. T. Sonka Agronomic adjustments to climatic variation 405 N. S. Jodha Global climatic change, water resources, and food security 415 P. H. Gleick The effect of climatic variations on food production 429 M. L. Parry and T. R. Carter Assessing the social implications of climate fluctuation through climate impact studies 451 W. E. Riebsame STRATEGIES FOR COPING WITH CLIMATIC FLUCTUATION AND CHANGE Deforestation and climatic changes in the Amazon Basin 469 E. Salati Exploiting the fertilizer effect of increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide 477 R. M. Gifford Development of crop germplasm with improved tolerance for environmental and biotic stresses 489 J. P. Srivastava Climate and food production 503 G. O. P. Obasi Irrigation as a factor in food security 515 D. F. Peterson Cropping systems strategies for coping with climatic fluctuations 533 S. M. Virmani Some strategies to cope with drought in the Sahelian zone 541 M. V. K. Sivakumar Climatic variation and food production in Jiangsu, China 557 Gao Liangzhi, Juan Fang, and Li Bingbai Climatic variability and agronomic management in Mediterranean barley - livestock farming systems 563 M. J. Jones and H. C. Harris Food security and food stock: some managerial issues 573 N. C. B. Nath AFTERWORD Food security in the changing global climate 579 S. K. Sinha, N. H. Rao, and M. S. Swaminathan Participants 599 Foreword Increasing evidence and scientific consensus indicate that the world may be experiencing a significant climate change. Whatever the eventual scenario, climate change raises a number of urgent questions and poses additional challenges for scientists. Research is needed to identify the important factors involved and to design the technology needed to increase and sustain the productivity of basic food crops. Climate-defensive food systems require the fullest possible understanding of the subtle and complex relationships between crops and climate. IRRI’s cosponsorship of the International Symposium on Climate and Food Security was particularly appropriate, and its responsibility for publication of this proceedings book particularly relevant. Rice is the basic food for more than half of the world’s population. It is one of the oldest cultivated crops on earth, and probably the world’s most versatile crop. Over millennia, in different parts of the world, rice has been adapted to very different climatic areas. Most of today’s improved rices are designed for particular water, temperature, and photoperiod regimes. The conveners of this tri-part symposium of climatologists, meteorologists, and agricultural scientists were Roger Revelle, chairman of the Committee on Climate of the American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS); MS. Swaminathan, then Director General of IRRI, and S.K. Sinha, Professor of Eminence of the Indian Agricultural Research Institute and the Indian National Science Academy. The book was edited by Janet Kayser, Washington, D.C., and LaRue Pollard, assisted by Emerita P. Cervantes, IRRI. Klaus Lampe Director General Preface The International Symposium on Climate and Food Security was planned and convened by Roger Revelle, Chairman of the Committee on Climate of the American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS); M. S. Swaminathan, Director-General of the International

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