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Values of Time and Reliability in Passenger and Freight Transport in the Netherlands

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Values of Time and Reliability in Passenger and Freight Transport in the Netherlands Values of time and reliability in passenger and freight transport in The Netherlands Report for the Ministry of Infrastructure and the Environment SIGNIFICANCE, VU UNIVERSITY AMSTERDAM, JOHN BATES SERVICES In collaboration with TNO, NEA, TNS NIPO and PanelClix Project 08064, 30 November 2012 Final version John Bates Contents Management Samenvatting ........................................................................................ vii Executive Summary ................................................................................................... xiii Acknowledgements .................................................................................................... xix CHAPTER 1 Introduction .................................................................................... 1 1.1 Study objective ................................................................................................... 1 1.2 Overview of the methodology ............................................................................ 2 1.3 Contents of this report ....................................................................................... 3 CHAPTER 2 Theoretical models for values of time and reliability ........................ 5 2.1 Mean-dispersion models versus scheduling models ............................................. 5 2.1.1 Base models without variability ............................................................. 5 2.1.2 Mean-dispersion models ........................................................................ 6 2.1.3 Scheduling models ................................................................................ 6 2.1.4 Combined mean-dispersion / scheduling models ................................... 7 2.2 Absolute versus relative models .......................................................................... 7 2.3 Models in preference space and in WTP space ................................................... 8 2.4 Models in logWTP space ................................................................................... 9 2.5 Prospect theory .................................................................................................. 9 2.6 Advanced MNL models with diminishing sensitivity for higher base levels and small changes............................................................................................. 10 2.6.1 Introducing diminishing sensitivity for higher base levels .................... 10 2.6.2 Allowing different values for small / large changes ............................... 11 2.6.3 Including a dispersion variable ............................................................ 12 2.7 Multinomial Logit models versus Mixed Logit models ..................................... 13 2.8 Continuous distribution mixed logit models versus Latent Class models .......... 13 2.9 Cross-sectional models versus panel models ...................................................... 14 2.10 Non-parametric techniques .............................................................................. 14 FREIGHT TRANSPORT ......................................................................................... 15 CHAPTER 3 Freight transport questionnaire ..................................................... 17 3.1 A priori expectations for the VOT of shippers and carriers ............................... 17 3.2 Set-up of the questionnaire .............................................................................. 19 iii Values of time and reliability in passenger and freight transport in the Neth. Significance/VU/John Bates 3.3 SP experiments for shippers and carriers (excl. carriers using sea and inland waterways) ............................................................................................ 19 3.3.1 Description of the experiments ........................................................... 20 3.3.2 Description of the attributes ............................................................... 22 3.4 SP experiments for carriers using sea and inland waterways ............................. 23 CHAPTER 4 Freight transport data .................................................................... 25 4.1 Number of respondents ................................................................................... 25 4.2 Data selection and data quality ........................................................................ 26 4.2.1 Treatment of the dominant alternative ............................................... 26 4.2.2 Outliers .............................................................................................. 27 4.2.3 Transport characteristics ..................................................................... 29 4.2.4 Trading .............................................................................................. 30 4.3 RP data ........................................................................................................... 30 CHAPTER 5 Freight transport data analysis ....................................................... 33 5.1 Initial model tests ............................................................................................ 33 5.1.1 Initial model specifications ................................................................. 33 5.1.2 Initial MNL results ............................................................................. 34 5.1.3 Results for mean/median transport time and for mean/median scheduling terms ................................................................................. 35 5.1.4 Results for relative models .................................................................. 36 5.1.5 Results for logWTP models and prospect theory ................................ 37 5.1.6 Mixed logit results .............................................................................. 38 5.1.7 Jack-knife procedure ........................................................................... 38 5.1.8 Results from the RP data .................................................................... 38 5.1.9 Differences between containerised and non-containerised transport ............................................................................................. 39 5.2 Selecting the final model specification ............................................................. 39 5.3 Synthesis per segment ...................................................................................... 41 5.3.1 Carriers-Road (including own account shippers) ................................ 41 5.3.2 Carriers-Rail transport ........................................................................ 44 5.3.3 Carriers-air transport .......................................................................... 45 5.3.4 Carriers-inland waterways transport .................................................... 45 5.3.5 Carriers-Sea transport ......................................................................... 47 5.3.6 Shippers that contract out................................................................... 47 5.4 Final VOT results ........................................................................................... 49 5.4.1 The new VOTs .................................................................................. 49 5.4.2 Discussion on the use of factor costs and trade-off ratios ..................... 52 5.4.3 Comparison against the 2003/2004 VOTs ......................................... 54 5.4.4 Comparison against the international literature .................................. 56 5.5 Final VOR results............................................................................................ 56 5.5.1 The new VORs .................................................................................. 56 5.5.2 Comparison against previous values .................................................... 58 iv Significance/VU/John Bates Contents 5.6 Validation of freight transport VOT/VOR outcomes against practice .............. 60 PASSENGER TRANSPORT ..................................................................................... 61 CHAPTER 6 Passenger transport questionnaire ................................................. 63 6.1 Set-up of the questionnaire .............................................................................. 63 6.2 SP experiments for passenger transport (excluding recreational navigation) ....................................................................................................... 64 6.2.1 Description of the experiments ............................................................ 64 6.2.2 Description of the attributes in private car transport ............................ 65 6.2.3 Description of the attributes in public transport .................................. 66 6.2.4 Description of the attributes in air transport ........................................ 67 6.3 SP experiments for recreational navigation ....................................................... 68 6.3.1 Description of the SP experiments ....................................................... 68 6.3.2 Description of the attributes in recreational navigation ........................ 69 6.4 Dominant questions ......................................................................................... 69 CHAPTER 7 Passenger transport data ................................................................ 71 7.1 The 2009 data (Panelclix panel) ....................................................................... 71 7.1.1 Recruitment .......................................................................................
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