ThE RULE OF ThE GUN Hits and in South Africa January 2000 to December 2017 The rule of the gun Witness

About the report

This report is a product of a project called Assassination Witness, a collaboration between the Centre for Criminology at the University of Cape Town and the Global Initiative against Transnational (GITOC).

The report was authored by Kim Thomas with the assistance of Azwi Netshikulwe and Ncedo Mngqibisa.

To find out more about the work of Assassination Witness, seewww.assassination witness.org.za and for daily tweeting on hits in South Africa, follow us on Twitter at @AssassinationZA.

Publication date: March 2018

Acknowledgements

I would in particular like to thank Azwi Netshikulwe and Ncedo Mngqibisa for their fieldwork in KwaZulu-Natal and Gauteng, Julie Berg for managing the project from the Centre of Criminology at the University of Cape Town, and Lameez Mota and Liesel Collins for their assistance in administrating the project. Guy Lamb and Elrena van der Spuy provided valuable comments on an earlier version of the report. I am grateful to Mark Ronan for editing the report. Lastly, I would like to thank Mark Shaw for his invaluable input, direction and support, without which this project would not have been possible.

International IDEA partnered with us by providing software that was used to map the impact of assassinations on democracy at the local level. Corruption Watch supplied us with data that was used to establish whether there is a relationship between corruption and assassinations.

We would like to acknowledge the funders of this project, the Open Society Foundation of South Africa, the Government of Norway and the National Research Foundation of South Africa.

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Summary

This report presents an analysis of criminal market, notably South Africa’s data on hits (contract killings) carried notoriously violent taxi industry, which out in South Africa. The data has provides a recruitment pool where been compiled as part of the work of hitmen can be hired. The findings a collaborative project, Assassination of this report aim to inform a more Witness. The data that informs the effective policy response to the report spans the period from 2000 to phenomenon of contract killings in 2017 and the findings allow certain South Africa in order that more can be conclusions to be drawn about the done about it. evolving nature of the phenomenon of paid-for assassinations. Various international studies provided the terminology, framework and The targeted killing of people – a form background to understanding how of organized crime that escalated and why contract killings become rapidly towards the end of the data prevalent. But these analyses period – has a highly detrimental are largely focused on developed impact on South Africa’s ongoing countries.1 democratic project and often fragile governance systems. The study It is important to note that the South found that a large proportion of African context, as is the case with assassinations in South Africa are other developing countries, is different contracted for political, economic or from that of the Global North. In South social gain, and that commissioned Africa, the sheer number of hits is killings also targeted professionals greater, the urgency of collecting the in the country’s criminal-justice data more apparent and the need to system. There are segments of the act more pressing. economy that nurture and feed this

Key recommendations

• Improve firearm control to reduce the flow of illicit arms.

• Focus on reducing violent competition within the taxi industry.

• Erode the ‘nurseries of violence’ that provide a supply of hitmen for hire.

• Bolster prosecution-led investigations.

• Expand efforts at monitoring assassinations and disaggregate data, so that better-quality statistics on contract killings are made available.

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Introduction

Sindiso Magaqa rose to prominence as person killed for gain, monetary or one of Julius Malema’s key allies after otherwise. An event begins with the being elected as secretary general initial exploration of the possibility of of the ANC Youth League in 2011. At having someone killed, and terminates the time of his death, he was an ANC with a , attempted murder, or councillor and executive committee police intervention.’2 When describing member for the Umzimkhulu the phenomenon, we use both the municipality. He was lauded as having term ‘hit’ – which is widely used in the potential for a bright political South African popular discourse – and future. One evening in July 2017, ‘assassination’. In terms of South Magaqa and two other ANC councillors African law, making use of a third party pulled over at a shop in the village of to commit a murder is no different Umzimkhulu on their way back from from committing the murder oneself.3 SINDISO MAGAQA an ANC meeting. Moments later, they were ambushed by gunmen who fired The cost of hits can be felt in many 4 September 2017 a hail of bullets at them. All three ways. But, generally, the goals of an Umizimkhulu, were rushed to hospital for medical open, prosperous and democratic Kwa Zulu Natal attention. On 4 September 2017, society are severely thwarted Magaqa died from his injuries, making when people are killed for political, him the fourth councillor to be killed in economic, criminal and social gain. the area in 2017. This report aims to quantify the problem of killings by paid hitmen Magaqa is only one of the many in South Africa, to examine why the victims of assassinations in South rate of contract killings has risen so Africa, few of which receive the sharply in recent years and to build coverage in the media that his death the evidence base that can provide a did. In several cases, the victims of platform for a call to action. hits had been whistle-blowers or civic activists who had stood up for the Targeted assassinations have resulted truth or who had wished to serve their in the deaths of many citizens, but, communities. For this, they paid the among the victims, there is a notable ultimate price. proportion who had been politicians, whistle-blowers, proprietors of taxi According to the data used for this businesses (known colloquially as study, there were 159 reported ‘taxi bosses’) and members of the assassinations in South Africa in legal fraternity. The impact of these 2017– a figure that was up by 36% assassinations is far-reaching, as they from 2016 (when 117 hits were undermine South Africa’s democracy recorded) and up by 346% from 2012 and judiciary, and threaten fair (46 hits). From these numbers, it is economic competition – suggesting clear that assassinations are a rapidly they are used to exert a mafia-type growing problem in South Africa. As control over society. But the effect the analysis in this report will show, is felt not only by institutions – a hit there was a particularly dramatic is also a human tragedy, and has an increase in reported cases between overwhelming impact on the victim’s 2014 and the end of 2017. family and community. The killing of breadwinners is economically A contract hit, or assassination, devastating for dependants. can be defined as ‘a continuous sequence of interactions by one or Yet despite their impact, the scale more persons in which one person and scope of assassinations in South solicits another person to have a third Africa have not been monitored

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or analyzed, and the current In the personal category, we included understanding of assassinations cases that involved infidelity or – and the response to them – is perceived infidelity (love triangles), poor. For example, there are no to obtain life-insurance disaggregated police statistics for pay-outs and several cases of contract killings. The South African children arranging for their parents Police Service releases statistics to be killed. Finally, we included a on – but not types of category for South Africa’s minibus- homicides. Therefore, to collate the taxi industry, partly because of the figures for this study we drew on the sheer number of murder cases in resources of a database covering this industry, and because it is an local, regional and national news. The industry segment that has long been information from the database was characterized by the prevalence of then supplemented with detailed targeted killings. These include hits searches of internet news stories. targeting taxi bosses, taxi drivers and members of taxi association The time frame for the search was committees. Such are usually 2000 to 2017. This intensive work connected to disputes over route generated a sample of over 16 000 allocations and power struggles Political conflict, media articles, which were then within the lucrative taxi associations. poor governance reviewed to identify specific cases where the police, family or media Analysis of the data revealed two and political indicated that the victim had been alarming trends. First, there was a the subject of an alleged hit. These marked increase in the total number uncertainty cases were then coded for analysis of assassinations carried out in South according to their details, including Africa since 2012. It also shows that contributed to the name and gender of the victim, this significant upswing through the date and location of the incident, to the end of 2017 was driven by an increase in the method used to conduct the increases in all the categories of murder, the outcome and any other assassinations mentioned above. the numbers of relevant circumstances surrounding It is perhaps not surprising that the hit. We included in the database political conflict, poor governance assassinations not only hits where the target was and political uncertainty, for example, actually killed, but also assassination which defined the South African that fall into the attempts that failed (i.e. where the administration between 2014 and intended target was only injured), or 2017, contributed to an increase in political category. cases where the wrong person was the numbers of assassinations that killed (although these form only a fall into the political category. But small proportion of the total). there were also increases in cases associated with organized crime and All the incidents that we identified a large recorded growth in the number as hits were then divided into four of targeted killings associated with separate categories. Cases that fall the taxi industry. within the political category generally targeted individuals designated as It is also significant that hits holding a political or administrative associated with the taxi industry office, almost always in local have a direct impact on other government. We categorized cases categories, because the industry has related to economic interests and generated a cadre of hitmen available organized crime as those that clearly for hire, which means that a largely used targeted violence to influence unmanaged set of taxi route conflicts a certain economic outcome – often has rippled out, creating an impact on these occurred in the criminal both local governance and the lives of economy.4 ordinary people.

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The breakdown of hits by category Consequently, many attorneys take shows that the taxi industry safety precautions out of fear for accounted for the largest number their lives. of hits (43%), followed by the political (22%) and organized-crime The second is to explore the link (22%) categories. Hits that fall in between targeted hits and the the personal category represent prevalence of corruption in local the smallest proportion of the authorities. To determine the impact cases (13%). These categories are of targeted killing on democracy, analyzed in more detail later in the we mapped the number of report. assassinations against measures of corruption at the provincial level. Our The province that experienced findings here suggest that although the greatest number of hits in the there are corrupt municipalities recording period was KwaZulu- that don’t have hits, there are no Natal, followed by Gauteng and the municipalities with hits without Western Cape. corruption.

Analysis of each of these cases The third is to examine the degree indicates that in 86% of the to which political party change incidents, the victim was male, or political competition has had More political while 7% involved female targets; an impact on the prevalence of 7% of the incidents involved the assassinations. When one analyzes hits take place in deaths of both male and female the way political parties gained or targets. lost power at the local-government areas where the level, the data reveals another In cases where the information significant finding: more political local-government was recorded in the database of hits take place in areas where the media stories, firearms were by local-government party in power party in power far the main choice of weapon has remained the same, indicating used in the incidents (83%). Most that hits are more often related has remained assassinations were carried out to internal power struggles within outside the victim’s home – often political parties – most notably the the same. as the victim was arriving home and ANC – than to conflict between often late at night. them.

We also used the data to examine Finally, the study tested whether the a number of questions that are number of assassinations forms a important for the debate. The first consistent proportion of the murder is the impact of the targeted killing figures in each province over the of people who work in the criminal- period the data covers, or whether justice system. The assassination the hits phenomenon is more a of those who work in the justice function of its own underlying sector must be viewed with drivers (even if these cannot perhaps particular concern. Examination of be separated in their entirety from cases relating to the targeting of the high level of general violence attorneys, prosecutors, magistrates, in South Africa). Significantly, the judges and witnesses shows that findings show that the number of the impact of these murders has hits appears to be independent of been far-reaching, as they are the levels of murder in almost all used to influence or manipulate parts of the country, suggesting that the justice system by ensuring, the prevalence of assassinations is for example, that witnesses are driven by a specific set of factors. intimidated into not testifying.

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Although the data analyzed in this urgency, those who commission them report is valuable in terms of its will continue to exert illicit power and ability to shed much-needed light on influence over South Africa’s society, assassinations in South Africa, it is economy and democracy. not without its flaws. On the basis of our research in the field, it is very The Assassination Witness project likely, for example, that the database hopes to continue to collect data, in undercounts the number of hits that particular in the run-up to the 2019 occurred in the context of organized general election. For South Africa to crime and the environment of develop into a society in which all the Western Cape. From interviews feel safe, and where economic and conducted among , it would political competition is lawfully and appear likely that not all such cases transparently regulated, it is critical are covered in the press and are that the rule of the gun is ended. therefore probably not all present in If nothing is the database. Similarly, it is likely that the database may not include hits done to address that occurred in remote rural areas where there is little media presence the issue of or coverage. Nevertheless, the data assassinations as provides a meaningful overview of the extent and trajectory of the hit a matter of phenomenon in South Africa. urgency, those The overlay between the political, economic and social factors that act who commission as catalysts for contract killings in South Africa speaks to the importance them will continue of an effective response. Not least, this must include the arrest and to exert illicit prosecution of hitmen. Unfortunately, the data does not contain details that power and allow us to measure the proportion of the cases where arrests or successful influence over prosecutions have been made. But by having followed up on developments South Africa’s in individual cases, it would seem that the success rate is far too low society, economy (measured by whether a suspect is and democracy. arrested and brought to trial). It is clear that only a concerted and strategic response will end the phenomenon of hits. An effective response must include addressing police corruption, better implementation of firearm control, reducing political interference with and connections to local-government tender processes, and achieving better regulation of the taxi industry.

If nothing is done to address the issue of assassinations as a matter of

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Methodology: Collating statistics on South Africa’s contract killings

With a homicide rate six times higher media. Sabinet encompasses 19 than the global average,5 it is common daily publications, 17 weekend enough knowledge that South Africa is publications, two weekly publications a particularly violent country. However, and one monthly publication.9 as mentioned earlier, although We supplemented this content homicide statistics are made available with searches of other electronic by the South African Police Service, news sources, using the search there is no disaggregated data on terms ‘contract killing’, ‘political contract killings.6 And, given the low assassination’, ‘hitman’ and ‘taxi conviction rates7, it is difficult to killing’. Collectively, these searches establish the motives for murders and generated over 16 000 individual how they are carried out. An additional articles from the South African press. data-collection method was therefore needed to determine the scope and Each of these news articles was then scale of assassinations in South Africa. reviewed to identify cases where the circumstances and the commentary Trying to quantify assassinations is provided by the police, court beset with obvious difficulties, in that proceedings, the community or family they are deliberately concealed crimes. of those involved suggested that a Those who perpetrate assassinations hit or assassination (or attempted have often, for example, masked them assassination) had taken place. We as failed hijackings or robberies. And recorded various other details on each they are, unsurprisingly, reluctant case where available. We then sorted to talk openly to researchers. As is the cases, based on the details we had the case with other hidden social obtained about them, into the four phenomena, the data can therefore categories of hits described earlier: shine a light on the problem, but it is those linked to the taxi industry, unlikely to be able to accurately reveal organized crime, personal motives and its true extent. The data used in this politics. report – although a valuable indicator of what is occurring in South Africa’s Compiling the database raised various assassination economy – is likely to be challenges. For example, we needed to an underestimate of the real extent of experiment with search terms to make this type of crime, for reasons already sure they identified enough cases for explained in the Introduction. more detailed review. It was important to maintain consistency in identifying The approach was to build a database and recording the cases, and to make of hits (including attempted hits) sure that the data was checked and in South Africa over the period double-checked. We are aware that 2000 to 2017. To do this, we used a there may be gaps in the sampling content analysis approach, primarily method, as it does not capture cases applying it quantitatively, namely to where hits may have been masked as code and count the occurrence of accidents, or those that did not receive assassinations.8 any media coverage, or where there may have been pressure on reporters To create the sample, we drew not to run the story. And, in some on the resources of an electronic cases, most notably those related to database, Sabinet, which provides gang violence in the Western Cape, access to local, regional and national murders of this sort are seldom news content published in the print ‘newsworthy’ and our own interviews

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on the ground suggest that many do findings of which is provided later in not make the media. There are also the report.11 more general drawbacks to using media reports, principally because This study is a continuation of a the data is entirely dependent on the previous research project that looked resources and capacity of journalists into assassinations in South Africa by and media houses. Nevertheless, compiling a database of media articles research that monitors violence in and then categorizing and examining South Africa and elsewhere has drawn the overall trends of assassinations in on similar methods in the past.10 South Africa from 2000 to 2015.12 This project has gone further by Despite these drawbacks, however, we expanding the existing database, by believe that the hits database provides including more details of the individual a unique and useful way to measure hits over the time period and by and examine a specific set of crimes continuing to collect information on that have major political, economic hits for 2016 and 2017. and social consequences. The quantitative data was also checked and balanced against qualitative fieldwork, including interviews and focus groups conducted in Gauteng and KwaZulu-Natal, a summary of the

Assassinations: Exerting mafia-type control over South African public life

The impact of the assassinations Of course, assassinations do not recorded in our data set is profound. occur in a vacuum. Political instability, Victims are targeted across the corruption in the public and private country and the ripple effect taints sectors or the failure to regulate the South Africa’s society, economy and taxi industry are factors that provide democratic integrity. Hits have at opportunities where assassination – or their core the innate ability to create the threat of assassination – is used as fear and uncertainty among groups a tool for political, economic or social of people and institutions. And with gain. The use of targeted violence the added veil between who is calling to achieve such objectives is at its the shots and the victim, a contract heart a process akin to how mafia killing provides the perpetrator with organizations exert violent control over the ability to intimidate and control public life. with reduced risk of being caught. Comparative studies have shown The circulation of so-called hit lists that the impact of assassinations in in communities and constituencies political and economic relationships is also used as a means of exerting is greatest when leadership change criminal control by causing fear. happens behind closed doors, without People whose names appear in hit transparency and accountability, lists are threatened; they go into or occurs in circumstances of hiding, resign from their jobs or competition and conflict.13 These disengage from civic activism, for factors arguably exist in many places example. and institutions in South Africa,

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where targeted killing often leads the health of South African society. to spiralling levels of violence and Understanding and responding to revenge killing. that trend is a priority for building a democratic society. There is growing evidence from around the world of the overlay If those who engage in instrumental between politics, business and violence face few consequences criminal activity – criminal violence in terms of paying for their crimes, is commissioned to influence then using this type of violence is interactions in all three spheres.14 likely to become the norm. As noted above, it may result in a spiralling of This is essentially how mafia revenge killings. Our data collection, networks exert control over as mentioned, has not allowed us to organizations, individuals and determine what proportion of the state institutions. In such contexts, hits we record have been solved by the boundaries between criminal, the police. However, David Bruce, economic and political motivations the leading analyst on this subject, If those who engage blur considerably. explains how there have been roughly 120 political killings in South Africa in instrumental There is also a small but growing body since 2003 and less than 10% of them of literature on assassinations and have resulted in convictions.19 It is violence face few political killings in South Africa.15 doubtful that the overall conviction Corroborating the findings of the rate for hits is higher than this figure. consequences in international literature on the subject, these works also demonstrate that This study is particularly important terms of paying for contract killings in one sphere of given that hits often target society may overlap and influence local-government civil servants, their crimes, then the production of violence in whistle-blowers and key witnesses other areas.16 As earlier work has – representatives of the people in using this type of suggested, targeted killings within a democratic society.20 The use South Africa’s taxi industry have of targeted violence is therefore violence is likely to been a major stimulus for violence particularly detrimental to the elsewhere.17 achievement of an open society, become the norm. undermining, as it does, confidence Recent research also suggests in political institutions and systems, that the presence of a mafia-style and subverting transparent economic capacity for violence in the criminal processes. economy and its use by those with political and economic power – or the fact they tolerate its use by others – are key indicators of ‘how democracies die’ – the title of an important recent study that draws on historical analyses of democratic states that falter, decline or shift towards authoritarianism.18

Collecting data on assassinations and contract killing therefore provides a ready measure of the degree to which violence is used instrumentally in the South African political economy – and, in the process, a measure of

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Assassinations in South Africa, 2000–2017: The findings

The data that was collected and declining trend. By 2017, the average analyzed for the period revealed incident count was approximately various time trends by both province double the 2012 figure – and an and category. Additional findings increase of approximately 60% of the concerning the variables that were average at the start of the period in recorded (i.e. gender, method of 2000. assassination, location, occupation and/or relationship between the Although it is political assassinations victim and the person who ordered that get most prominent coverage in the hit) also came to light, some of the media, increases occurred across which are analyzed here. A total of all four categories in the data period. 1 317 cases were recorded over the The increase was particularly the case time period. with targeted killings related to the taxi business. Indeed, assassinations A visual inspection of the trend line for broken down by incident type show total annual incident counts for South that throughout the period, the taxi- Africa as a whole suggests a general related incidents were the biggest decline from 2000 to 2012. Between contributor to the overall trend. This 2014 and 2017, however, the average is followed by organized crime and annual incident count increased political incidents, and finally personal sharply, reversing the previous incidents.

Total count of reported assassination incidents across South Africa with moving average smoothing line superimposed

160

150

140

130

120

110

100

90

80

70

60

50

40

30 Moving average

20

10 Incident count

0

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

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Hits breakdown across all four categories

Personal 13% Taxi 22% 43% Political

Organized crime 22%

Assassinations by province

Assassinations broken down by province show that throughout the period, KwaZulu-Natal is the largest contributor to the national trend, followed by Gauteng, the Western Cape and the Eastern Cape, with more modest contributions from Limpopo, Mpumalanga and North West. Over the duration of 2016 and 2017, the Eastern Cape and, to a lesser extent, the Western Cape both increased their contribution to the overall trend.

Hits by province and category, 2000—2017

600

450

300

150

0 Eastern Cape Free State Gauteng KwaZulu-Natal Limpopo Mpumalanga North West Northern Cape Western Cape

Taxi Personal

Political Organized crime

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Hits by province, 2000–2017

KwaZulu-Natal 40% North West 4%

Gauteng 24% Limpopo 2%

Western Cape 14% Free State 1%

Eastern Cape 12% Northern Cape 1%

Mpumalanga 4%

KwaZulu-Natal

KwaZulu-Natal accounted for 40% organized crime and hits that fall into (i.e. 522 cases) of all the hits recorded the personal category. for the time period and is the most significant provincial contributor to In terms of trends over time, the assassinations nationally. temporary slight increase between 2007 and 2010 is entirely attributable A breakdown of assassination to increases in taxi-related killings. incidents in KwaZulu-Natal is The sharp increase from 2012 can be consistent over longer periods. There largely explained by a correspondingly was a general declining trend between sharp increase in taxi industry SIFISO MHKIZE 2000 and 2011, with a temporary incidents, though all incident types small increase between 2007 and exhibited increasing trends in Killed: 29 June 2017 2010. From 2012, however, there was the province over that period. An Location: Richmond, a sharp increase in the trend, which increasing trend in political incidents KwaZulu-Natal continued to 2017. Taxi incidents are in the province continued to bolster Sifiso Mhkize was a local the largest contributor to the overall the overall numbers, with smaller councillor, the chairper- trend in KwaZulu-Natal. The next most increases in the number of incidents son of the Richmond significant contributor to the trend linked to organized crime. Community Policing is political incidents, followed by Forum, as well as the forum’s cluster public-re- lations officer. He was -as sassinated in a hail of 18 bullet shots while on his way home from a Com- munity Policing Forum meeting in July 2017.

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Trend of annual counts of reported assassination incidents in KwaZulu-Natal by incident type

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50.00

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00 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Taxi

Organized crime

Political

Personal

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Gauteng Eastern Cape

The province saw a general decline There was a modest declining trend in the number of annual incidents in the average annual counts in the between 2000 and 2011. Then, in province between 2001 and 2004, common with the national trend, there though closer inspection suggests was an increase in the average annual this was driven by an unusually high incident count in the province between count in 2001 and may not reflect a 2012 and 2017. genuinely consistent trend.

As elsewhere, taxi-related incidents As with the national trend, taxi are the largest contributor to the incidents are the largest contributor TALBY FOSTER overall trend in Gauteng, followed by to the overall numbers of hits in the cases we assessed to be associated Eastern Cape, followed by organized Killed: 3 September 2017 with organized crime. In notable crime and personally motivated Location: Katlehong, Gauteng contrast with other provinces, the cases. Unlike the national trend, Talby Foster was chair of the annual average number of personal however, personal incidents are a more Reiger Park Taxi Association. incidents is greater than the consistent contributor to the overall He was shot dead in a hit in the average annual number of political trend than politically related cases, early hours of the morning on 3 incidents. The increasing trend in though the difference between the Gauteng between 2012 and 2017 two is marginal. September 2017. Earlier, in May was dominated by an upswing in the 2014, Andy Khosa, the chair of number of taxi-related incidents, From the end of 2015 to the end of the Reiger Park Taxi Associa- though there was also a small growth 2017, political incidents approximately tion at the time, was also assas- in the incidents in the political quadrupled their contribution to sinated. category. the overall trend and taxi incidents also increased – in this case by a factor of approximately 1.5. The high Western Cape average annual number of incidents in the province in 2017 was driven In common with other provinces, by an increase in the average annual the trend in reported assassination numbers of political and taxi incidents. incidents began at a relatively high point in 2000 and then went into a The remaining five provinces – general decline. Between 2004 and Mpumalanga, North West, Limpopo, 2010 there was a marked increase Free State and the Northern Cape – in the average number of hits. After account for only 10% of the total 2010, the largest contribution to the number of hits nationwide (i.e. 131 THOZAMA NJOBE overall trend came from trends in taxi- cases). The numbers of cases in these related and organized-crime incidents, provinces are too low to make any Killed: 18 July 2017 with organized crime or gang-related meaningful assessment of trends. Location: Fort Beaufort, incidents taking a more dominant role Eastern Cape from 2015 onwards. There was a sharp Thozama Njobe was an ANC increase in 2017 in reported cases councillor. She was killed by in the province, with a total of 26 16 shots fired at close range. incidents, compared to four incidents She was also aware of the plot in 2016. to kill her. Her assassination has been linked to her anti- corruption stance.

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Assassinations by category Political hits

Throughout the period, the average count of political assassinations was dominated by incidents in KwaZulu-Natal. The contribution of Gauteng, the Western Cape, Eastern Cape and Mpumalanga remained consistently low and similar in magnitude throughout the period. There were no hits that fall into this category in North West province until 2009, in the Free State until 2010, in Limpopo until 2011 or in the Northern Cape until 2016.

Trend in annual political assassination incidents by province

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00 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

KwaZulu-Natal Eastern Cape North West

Gauteng Mpumalanga Northern Cape

Western Cape Limpopo Free State

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Hits related to organized crime The trend in hits related to organized crime showed a general decline between 2000 and 2012. Between 2012 and 2017, there was an upward swing. The declining national trend in organized-crime incidents between 2000 and 2012 is attributable primarily to a decline in the number of organized-crime incidents in the JOE KANYONA Western Cape, though it was also influenced by a modest reduction in Killed: 21 June 2015 Gauteng between 2004 and 2007, as Location: Cape Town well as by a decline in KwaZulu-Natal Joe Kanyona was a between 2004 and 2011. bouncer at the Beerhouse, a bar in Long Street, The increasing trend that can be seen central Cape Town. He between 2012 and 2017 was driven was stabbed to death mainly by more reports of organized- by hitmen while he was crime-related incidents in KwaZulu- on duty. His death has Natal. However, from 2014 to the end been linked to the Cape of 2017, the continued increase in Town nightclub security the overall trend was also driven by an increase in the Western Cape. Over extortion network. the period 2015 to 2016, this was amplified by increases in incidents in Mpumalanga and Limpopo, and, in 2017, by an increase in Gauteng.

EDWARD SIBUSISO SITHOLE Killed: 6 March 2017 Location: Tongaat, KwaZulu-Natal Edward Sibusiso Sithole had been the Richmond municipal manager for five years and had just been hired to be the municipal manager in uMgeni. He was shot dead in a hit at a taxi rank in March 2017. Like the killing of Thozama Njobe, his murder has also been linked to his anti-corruption stance.

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Hits with personal motives Between 2000 and 2004, there was the average annual taxi incident count an increasing trend in incidents of occurred in almost all provinces over personally motivated assassinations. similar periods of time suggests the This was followed by a declining trend possibility that some or all of the taxi from 2004 to 2014, and from 2014 incidents occurring in any one province to 2017 there was, once again, a may have links with taxi incidents slight upward turn in the trend. The occurring in other provinces. declining trend between 2004 and 2014 is primarily attributable to fewer JAYDE PANAYIOTOU recorded hits in Gauteng, though KwaZulu-Natal and the Western Cape Killed: 21 April 2015 also exhibited a small net decline in Location: Port Elizabeth the same period. Jayde Panayiotou was a schoolteacher. She went The slight increasing trend seen in missing while waiting outside 2014 to 2017 is due to the combined her home for her lift to school. increases in the numbers of hits in Her body was found the next the Eastern Cape, KwaZulu-Natal, day. Her husband, Christopher the Western Cape and Mpumalanga. Panayiotou, was found guilty Although hits ordered for personal of hiring a hitman to kill her. In motives tend to be widely covered November 2017, Panayiotou was in the media, they constitute only a small proportion of the total number of sentenced to life imprisonment. contract killings in South Africa.

Taxi industry hits

Between 2000 and 2004, the trend in reported assassination incidents associated with the taxi industry shows a decline. The increase and then subsequent decrease in average annual counts of taxi incidents between 2004 and 2012 was primarily XOLANI MAPUMA driven by a similar trend in the Western Cape, with substantial contributions Killed: 19 March 2016 from both Gauteng and KwaZulu-Natal, Location: Mdantsane, and with some incidents recorded Eastern Cape also in the Free State, Limpopo and Xolani Mapuma was a taxi Mpumalanga. boss and member of the Mdantsane East London Taxi The increasing trend in this category Association. He was shot from 2014 to 2017 is dominated dead, execution style, in broad by the growing number of hits in daylight. He was at the centre KwaZulu-Natal and, from 2015, in of a leadership battle in his the Eastern Cape. There are more taxi association at the time. modest contributions to the increasing overall trend from the Free State, Limpopo, Mpumalanga and North West province. The fact that increases in

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Using violence to move up the ranks: Exploring the conflicts that fuel taxi hits

To gain a better understanding of are corruption – seen in the illegal the dynamics behind hits associated and unregulated issuing of operating with South Africa’s taxi industry, the licences; police corruption and lack project team conducted interviews of empathy; lack of consultation to establish the reasons that have by government and the private fuelled a recent route conflict sector in the early stages of new between rival industry associations. developments, which is essential to It also explored the role that hitmen ensure that all players in the transport play in conflicts between taxi industry are consulted; and, lastly, the Individuals associations. complicated and opaque relationship between government and taxi who are privy The mall of violence association management, including the ownership of taxis by government to the killings Although Gauteng is known generally officials and/or their families. to be notorious for taxi-related and corruption violence, two important themes Besides these factors in the external emerged from the case study that environment, our findings also noted withhold have not yet been explored in the a number of weaknesses within the literature surrounding taxi violence taxi industry that make it especially information in South Africa. First is the role of prone to violence: a high level of government, which has played both fragmentation and competition, because they are an active and passive role in fuelling the long-standing propensity in the violence. This is evident in the this industry to use violence to most likely to be development of the Mall of Africa, a settle disputes and to eliminate major new retail centre in Midrand, competitors for positions within taxi threatened and which opened in April 2016 and which associations. has created yet another route over intimidated. which taxi associations were bound Our interviews also revealed the to dispute. increasing influence that hitmen exert on this industry and the degree The bone of contention surrounding to which men of violence have the Mall of Africa continues to be advanced in the taxi industry. It also unbridled competition for lucrative emerged that individuals who are routes, which has sparked conflict privy to the killings and corruption between rival taxi associations withhold information because they operating in the area, ATA and are most likely to be threatened and ARMSTA. The nub of the issue here intimidated or because, in some is said to be operating permits. cases, police officers handling the Interviews suggest that the key matters are alleged to be indirectly problems with the state response involved in the killings. 

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The vanishing hitmen protection from well-armed private security companies. One of the While trying to ascertain the causes of respondents said that such security taxi disputes and killings, it emerged measures were needed to protect that taxi bosses in Gauteng often hire taxi businesses from hitmen who hitmen from KwaZulu-Natal (known as are allegedly hired to eliminate izinkabi) to carry out assassinations in competitors. Others were of the view taxi conflicts. These assassins, hired that the security measures around from across the provincial border, the taxi ranks and association have a particular utility for the taxi premises were put in place to deal bosses: discretion. They carry out with the unreasonable demands of the hit and immediately disappear the hitmen. In such circumstances, back to the rural obscurity of their taxi bosses have been said to give Taxi bosses province to help avoid being detected hitmen security jobs, so that they do by law-enforcement agencies. These not enforce their demands. Offering have been said izinkabi are believed to originate from them a full-time job neutralizes remote rural areas of KwaZulu-Natal, the threat. This way, hitmen have to give hitmen particularly Msinga, making it more muscled their way into employment difficult for them to be identified or in the taxi industry. Researchers security jobs, traced than would be the case for a were told about several cases where local hitman. Their role in Gauteng is hitmen had killed taxi owners to so that they twofold: killing and then vanishing. create fear within the taxi industry or the associations. Once they have do not enforce By contrast, izinkabi operating in made people fear for their lives, they KwaZulu-Natal appear to play a more then provide them with security – their demands. conspicuous and powerful role – as in a circuitous system that can be enforcers – in their own province’s taxi regarded as extortion. Offering them environment. They tend to remain in the urban centres, particularly in For more information on this subject, a full-time job hostels, and when they need money see Azwi Netshikulwe, Violence begets they enforce their demands, such as violence: How hitmen transform the neutralizes the extorting a taxi from a boss for whom taxi industry and empower themselves, they carried out a hit. This is said to be (forthcoming) and Ncedo Mngqibisa, threat. why hitmen emerged as taxi owners in ‘Fertile routes’: How the government their own right or as security heavies and private sector fuel taxi violence in the province’s taxi industry. (forthcoming). The role of private security: From enforcer to employee

In KwaZulu-Natal in particular, taxi associations are known to source

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Assassinations by gender, method and location Gender

An overview of all incidents in which gender was recorded showed that in 86% of the cases (i.e. 1 135 incidents), the victim was male and in 7% of cases (91 7% 7% incidents) the victims were female. In 7% of the cases (91 incidents), there were both male and female victims.

Female Male and female

Male 86%

Method

Firearms were used in 83% (1 090 cases) of the assassinations. In the remaining 17% (227 cases), victims were disposed of by, among other methods, stabbing, 21 17% strangulation, poisoning, beating or bludgeoning and car ‘accidents’.

Firearms

Other

83%

Location

There is accurate data on the location of the hits in only about 40% of the cases in the database. In the majority of these (63%; 325 cases), the hit took place 11% either inside or outside the victims’ homes. In such incidents, the hit was usually carried out as the victim was arriving home at night. In some cases, the person 26% who hired the hitman provided the killer(s) with access to the target’s home.

In 26% (134 incidents) of the cases, the hit was a drive-by shooting – a method 24% often used in politically motivated assassination cases. The remaining 11% (57 cases) occurred at a place of business, including the victim’s office, school (where principals or teachers were targets), shop or taxi rank. 39% Drive by Outside home

Inside home Place of business

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Assassinations in the justice system

The database recorded 46 cases A significant proportion of the cases of criminal-justice actors who (five witnesses and three magistrates) were targeted in hits (i.e. they in 2000 and 2001 were linked to were either assassinated or there vigilante group People Against were unsuccessful attempts on Gangsterism and Drugs (PAGAD), all of the targets’ lives) over the period which took place in the Western Cape. under analysis. These cases include In 2002 PAGAD’s leader, Abdus Salaam the assassination/attempted Ebrahim, was convicted and sentenced assassination of magistrates, judges, to seven years’ imprisonment. Since attorneys and witnesses in legal then, PAGAD has had a less publicly cases. Although it is likely that there visible presence in Cape Town were more cases than those captured and, based on our data, no further in the database, we nevertheless assassinations related to the justice used these as a valid sample to gain system were connected to PAGAD. more insight into the phenomenon of assassinations in South Africa’s legal Between 2006 and 2011, there was community. Each case was explored in a notable decline in cases. A judge, greater detail in an to gauge an attorney and two witnesses how many of them resulted in arrest, were targeted over this period. Both prosecution and conviction. Through assassinations of witnesses happened interviews with attorneys, prosecutors in 2008, one in the Eastern Cape and and court personnel, further insight the other in Mpumalanga. The judge was provided into the nature and was murdered in a contract killing in extent of the impact of contract Cape Town – in this case, it was found killings in the legal profession. that his wife had arranged the hit. The attorney, Ian Jordaan, was killed The time span of the database was in 2011. He was the lawyer for Lolly divided into three periods. The period Jackson, murdered strip-club boss, and 2000 to 2005 experienced the highest his case has been linked to notorious number of cases (31): ten magistrates, underworld figure Radovan Krejcir. two attorneys and 19 witnesses. Of these hits, 15 were carried out in the The period 2012 to 2017 saw a Western Cape, eight in Gauteng, six in second, albeit smaller, wave of hits on KwaZulu-Natal and two in the Eastern actors within the justice system. There Cape. was a total of 11 reported cases. Of

Overview of hits relating to the justice system, 2000–2017

12 10 8 6

4

2 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

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these, three were in KwaZulu-Natal two were beaten to death. As for the (witnesses), five in the Eastern Cape remainder, either the method was (one attorney and four witnesses), not ascertained, or the incident was two in Gauteng (witnesses) and one prevented. The majority of hits were in the Western Cape (attorney). These undertaken with firearms. hits were more dispersed and mainly targeted witnesses. Of the hits on attorneys, one was carried out in Investigations, arrests Mthatha in October 2016 and one on and prosecutions a Cape Town attorney in November 2016. Cases were followed up by tracing them through media searches VICTOR MABUNDA No cases of hits or attempted hits on (although this has limitations given the magistrates or judges were recorded length of time over which cases may Killed: 10 January 2018 for this time period. However, in run and the fact that media reporting Location: Bronkhorstspruit, Gauteng January 2018 a Gauteng magistrate, can be uneven in less high-profile Victor Mabunda was Victor Mabunda, was killed in a hit. cases). Witnesses were targeted in a variety assassinated in his of cases, including those connected to In the category of magistrates and driveway as he returned gangs, the taxi industry and violence judges, there were 11 cases in total. home one evening. at the Glebelands Hostel in Durban. In Three of these resulted in convictions; The hit was allegedly one case, the victim had witnessed a three cases had further reporting on linked to cases he was housebreaking; another was a witness the investigation, but there was no presiding over. Two in a case against Krejcir. further information on whether there suspects and the alleged was an arrest. In five of the cases, hitman have been there was no further reporting in the Location of hits and media. arrested. lethality In the category of attorneys, there Of the targeted magistrates, eight of were five cases in total, three of which the 11 cases took place at the victims’ had no further coverage in the media. home or outside their home, one at The assassination of Ian Jordaan, work and one while driving. Of the as mentioned, was linked to Krejcir, attorneys, four of the five hits took although this case has not made its place at the victims’ home and one in way to court yet. a car. In the witness category, where data is available, of the 30 cases, six The 2016 assassination of attorney were carried out at home and four Noorudien Hassan has received were drive-by shootings. Of the cases significant media attention, as in which a location was identified, he represented various notorious the most common was at the victim’s organized-crime figures in Cape Town. home or outside the home. However, to date, no one has been arrested for his murder. This case had Not all the hits against magistrates a significant impact on the criminal- resulted in the death of the target: out defence fraternity in Cape Town. As of a total of 11 cases, four died, five one attorney said, ‘Hassan’s death were shot but survived, one hit was had a massive ripple. He was very well prevented, and one was only a plot. All known and very well liked. … It caused five of the attorneys died: four were a massive effect in the legal fraternity shot and one was set alight. In the because it hit home that this could witness category, 24 of the 30 victims happen to anyone.’22 died, four were shot but survived and two attempted hits were prevented. In the category of witnesses, there Of the witnesses, 23 were shot and were 30 cases in total. However, there

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were only four convictions, three awaiting trial. He told her to drop arrests where the suspect is awaiting the case or he would ‘use one of his trial and one arrest where the charges connections on the outside’.24 were later dropped. The majority of cases were not covered further by the A criminal-defence attorney said media and there could, therefore, be that the state is often negligent with more convictions than were reported. regard to witness protection and that in one case the defence attorney In summary, according to media had accidentally received a copy reports, only three of the cases of hits of the witness list, which is meant on judges or magistrates resulted to be confidential to help protect in convictions, none of the cases on witnesses.25 When asked about the NOORUDIEN HASSAN attorneys have resulted in a conviction effectiveness of witness protection, and only four of the 30 hits on practitioners said that it is flawed Killed: 7 November 2016 witnesses have resulted in convictions. and inadequate. Notably, witness Location: Cape Town protection is provided only until the Noorudien Hassan was a point at which a witness has testified – criminal defence attorney. Impact of hits in the after that they are out in the open and He was assassinated justice system vulnerable. Witnesses are also often outside his home in a reluctant to join the witness protection drive-by shooting in The impact of contract killings programme, as they might be seen November 2016. There targeting those in the South African as betraying their community. It also had been previous criminal-justice sphere is not limited means that they are removed from attempts on his life. His to the victims or the cases they are the community and there is still no murder could be linked or were connected to. Their effect is guarantee that they will be safe even felt much more deeply, as these hits by joining the programme.26 to various underworld are representative of the broader activities/cases. To date, issue of intimidation in the justice Criminal-defence attorneys are known no arrests for his murder system. The fact these hits occur, and to adopt certain tactics to avoid have been made. that fact that others in the criminal- being caught in the middle of criminal justice system are aware of them, conflict. One of those tactics is to creates a pervasive environment of make sure they don’t take on clients fear. The message that this category who are from rival gangs or criminal of contract killings communicates groups. Following the death of Hassan, is that there is a very real possibility fear among Cape Town attorneys for that the same violence may well be their lives is said to have escalated. applied to someone else in the system. One attorney said he had acquired a This constant threat of violence is licensed firearm for self-defence. In tantamount to the capturing of the response to protecting witnesses in justice system by criminal forces. sexual-offence cases, a prosecutor said that special courts for hearing From interviews with legal sexual-offence cases are currently the practitioners, it is clear that hits best option. In normal courts, victims, in the justice system have serious witnesses and the accused sit next ramifications. For example, one to one another as they await trial, prosecutor estimates that in 50% providing ample opportunity for the to 60% of her cases, the witness is accused to intimidate the witness into actively intimidated by the accused not testifying. In specialised courts, or an agent of the accused, and this however, the victims and accused often results in the witness refusing to are kept apart, providing a safer testify or dropping the case.23 In one environment to prepare for testifying. case, the female victim of a sexual This results in a better functioning of offence received a phone call from the justice system.27 the accused while he was in prison

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Political competition and hits

Political assassinations are acts that As can be seen from the map, there are are used to destabilize politics in several municipalities that underwent South Africa. An important question to a change in government without consider is whether political change at experiencing any political hits during local-government level – the political the period under analysis. It appears, sphere in which most hits occur – is particularly in KwaZulu-Natal, that the associated with the phenomenon majority of political hits took place in of political assassinations. In other municipalities that did not experience words, is competition between a change in power. Although the political parties in hard-fought local data is insufficient to draw definitive elections one of the driving forces for conclusions, the political hits in areas contract killings? that did not experience a change in power suggests that they could be To test if the contestation of political the result of internal power struggles power is accompanied by violence, within individual political parties – the project mapped which district most notably the ANC. municipalities had experienced a change in power against the number of assassinations that occurred in that municipality. To do this, we Is competition analyzed political category hits from 2012 to 2016, and mapped these between political against a change in power in the district municipality in the 2016 local parties in hard- elections.28 In the map the district municipalities that experienced a fought local change in government are shaded in grey; those that are white did not elections one of the experience a change in government. The numbers indicate how many driving forces for political assassinations occurred in certain municipalities from 2012 to contract killings? 2016.

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Political change in municipalities and numbers of assassinations

1 1 Vhembe Capricorn

Waterberg Mopani 2

Sekhukune Ehlanzeni 5 City of Tshwane 1 Ngaka Modiri Molema 1 2 2 1 3 Dr Ruth Segomotsi Mompati Sedibeng Gert Sibande 1 John Taolo Gaetsewe Fezile Dabi 2 1 1 Amajuba Umkhanyakude Siyanda 1 Lejweleputswa Thabo Mofutsanyane 2 2 6 1 3 ILembe 1 8 Thekwini Xhariep Sisonke 18 Namakwa Pixley ka Seme 1 Alfred Nzo Ugu Joe Gqabi 2 2

O.R Thambo Chris Hani West Coast 1 Amathole Central Karoo Cacadu Cape Winelands Buffalo City Nelson Mandela Bay City of Cape Town Eden 4 2 Overberg

Number of assassinations x

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Corruption and assassinations: Is there a correlation?

According to Transparency the last five years of our database to International’s 2017 Corruption identify all hits that had the potential Perceptions Index, South Africa to relate to corruption. These hits ranked 71st out of 180 countries, were then sorted by province. This was with a score of 43/100.29 Although then measured against data that was this ranking shows that South Africa provided by Corruption Watch. The is far from being among the most data provided by Corruption Watch corrupt countries, a score below 50 included the number of corruption shows that there is a significant cases reported to Corruption Watch, corruption problem in the country. In by province, from 2012 to 2016. multiple assassination cases in South Although this does not reflect the Africa, this study found that the victim level of corruption in each province, it was a whistle-blower or was known to does show where there is significant have a strong anti-corruption stance. corruption and where the public reports it. Therefore, another important question to ask is, what is the In mapping the corruption reports relationship between corruption and against the assassinations, we first assassinations in South Africa? To scaled corruption levels from 1 to answer this, we first filtered through 5, with 1 representing a low level of corruption reports, and 5 representing a high number of reports. The number of potentially corruption-related hits are displayed by province on the map. The map represents data for the period 4 2012 to 2016, showing the corruption reports and hits.

After mapping both the corruption reports and potentially corruption- 6 8 27 related assassinations, it was clear that the data was insufficient to show any significant relationships or threats. This is as a result of weaknesses in 74 the data. The weaknesses concerning 3 the data on assassinations have already been discussed. The two 1 main weaknesses concerning the corruption-related data are, first, that the data is made up of reports by the public, so it only represents 19 corruption that has been brought to light. There are various reasons why 12 the public do not report corruption,

Low number of corruption reports High number of corruption reports

Number of assassinations x

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and the corruption data can only be Overall, both Gauteng and KwaZulu- considered to be a window onto the Natal show the highest and second wider problem of corruption. The highest rates of corruption and second weakness is that the data is assassinations, respectively, as can biased towards Gauteng. Corruption be seen in the map. After looking Watch’s headquarters are in Gauteng, at corruption reports at the district and, as the Corruption Watch report and local-municipality level over the acknowledges, the organization has period 2012 to 2016, it can also be done more awareness-raising on noted that, although there are many corruption locally, resulting in more municipalities that have reported people in Gauteng being aware of corruption but have not experienced Corruption Watch and how to report any hits, all municipalities that corruption to the organization. experienced hits also had a significant number of corruption reports. This Despite these limitations, however, shows that although there can be some observations can be made. corruption in a municipality that has Gauteng has the highest rate of not experienced hits, it is unlikely that corruption reports; KwaZulu-Natal there are hits without some level of has the highest rate of potentially corruption. corruption-related assassinations. Gauteng has the highest rate of corruption reports; KwaZulu-Natal has the highest rate of potentially corruption-related assassinations.

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Assassinations and the murder rate

The South African Police Service Although the data is insufficient recorded 18 673 murders for the to draw any definitive conclusions 2015/2016 reporting year, which when looking at the assassination results in a murder rate of 33.9 per rate against the murder rate, what 100 000 people. But how are such is clear throughout the country and high levels of murder connected to over time is that hits do not follow or assassinations? Clearly, it is much replicate the general murder trends easier to mask hits if they occur in of the country. Instead, the hit rate a generally violent society. But, that is independent of the murder rate. still leaves the question of whether Essentially, assassinations link incidents of targeted killing correlate nationally to the high levels of overall with general murder trends in the violence but, by nature, assassinations country. are driven by an economy of their own.

To test this proposition, we examined the average murder rates between 2012 and 2015 by province and compared these to the average assassination rates by province for the same years. Both the murder rates and assassination rates are calculated per 100 000 people and these are shown in the table.

Average murder rate, 2012-2015 Average hits rate, 2012-2015 Eastern Cape 50.97 0.09 Free State 35 0.04 Gauteng 27.11 0.13 KwaZulu-Natal 35.4 0.24 Limpopo 13.93 0.03 Mpumalanga 19.15 0.04 North West 23.83 0.08 Northern Cape 35.2 0.04 Western Cape 49.36 0.08

Very high murder/hit rate

High murder/hit rate

Average murder/hit rate

Low murder/hit rate

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Conclusion

In South Africa, the use of hits – indicators of decline.30 However, many targeted killing, often paid for and have died in the upswing in targeted carried out by hitmen – has an impact killing over the past few years. These across all sectors of society. This form include victims who were courageous of murder is used to manipulate and whistle-blowers, strong and vocal exert power over politics, business, members of their communities – the criminal-justice system and demanding that the interests of personal relations. The phenomenon people be respected. It is in all South therefore undermines democracy, Africans’ interests that investigations spreads fear, distorts political and into all cases of hits and targeted economic relations, and threatens killings should be expedited. to institutionalize violence further in South Africa’s body politic. The work of our project, Assassination Witness, will continue. The project Our data demonstrates clearly will continue to record and monitor that there has been a significant cases of hits for 2018 and 2019, increase in recorded cases of hits most particularly given that political between 2014 and late 2017. This competition will increase in the is attributable to increases not only run-up to South Africa’s general in targeted killings associated with election due in 2019. Our focus will politics, but in other categories also turn to finding ways of both too. Most significant of these is the improving our collection methodology prevalence of murder in the taxi and monitoring more effectively industry. This has implications for the success of investigations into hundreds of thousands of people who individual cases. Our aim will be to use this means of transport – yet it continue to draw attention to the attracts remarkably little attention in scourge of targeted killing and to policy discussions. mobilize for action to be taken against the killers. The data also shows clearly the degree to which the province of KwaZulu-Natal has contributed to the overall number of assassinations. It is encouraging to note that the Moerane Commission of Inquiry into political killings in KwaZulu-Natal has raised concerns at the political and provincial level. A notable suggestion from this commission is to increase the capacity of investigators and prosecutors, ensuring that those responsible are arrested.

The political change taking place in South Africa in early 2018 has heralded a new era in the country’s history. It is a political environment that promises greater independence for law enforcement and is tackling corruption and violence. Preliminary observations of hits in the first two months of 2018 interestingly show

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Recommendations 1. Improve firearm control a clear focus on reducing the violence that has long been associated with Most hits are carried out by well-armed it. The fieldwork undertaken for this assailants. Although South Africa has study in Gauteng and KwaZulu-Natal legislation to manage firearm control, suggests that corruption in the industry more needs to be done to reduce the is rife and relationships between state flow of illicit arms. 31 A recent firearms agencies and taxi bodies is murky and control briefing suggested three key too often shaped by economic self-gain. points that would lower the risk of These relationships need to become guns moving from the legal market more transparent, with independent into the illegal market. First, accurate oversight to avoid corruption. There also record-keeping is needed. This is the needs to be improved law enforcement responsibility of the Central Firearms to address corruption in the issuing of Registry. However, the lack of a taxi permits. Our case study of the Mall unified electronic recording system, of Africa also shows better coordination together with corruption and fraud, between public- and private-sector has compromised the ability of the stakeholders in the process of law to prevent the flow of illegal arms. commercial development may reduce Secondly, keeping effective records of violence within the industry. If the state weapons seizures in crime-recovery effectively regulated the routes, there operations will help determine what would be no need for the industry to illegal weapons are on the market resort to governing itself by means of and may identify where they are violence. coming from. Thirdly, more effective stockpile management of weapons is 3. Erode the ‘nurseries of needed.32 This would prevent further violence’ cases like that of Colonel Christiaan Prinsloo, a police officer who sold As is the case with the taxi industry, guns to gangs in the Cape Flats.33 A hitmen are also predominantly further initiative to improve firearm hired from two other ‘nurseries of control would be to disaggregate violence’.35 The first is the hostel crime statistics, thereby generating system, as noted in the Moerane more information on weapons used in Commission of Inquiry.36 The murders. This will assist in monitoring second is the gang-afflicted areas, the effectiveness of gun control policy predominantly in the Western Cape, and enforcement.34 but also in the Eastern Cape and Gauteng. These pools of violence 2. Focus on reducing must be addressed through more violent competition in the effective social and development taxi industry responses, as well as through more effective law enforcement.37 There are A disproportionately high number of strong social and economic reasons hits – on average, just under half of all to intervene here because, in each contract killings in South Africa – are case, quite apart from providing a linked to violence in the taxi industry. source of assassins, the taxi industry, Research suggests that the industry hostels and ganglands are responsible also provides a system in which hitmen for wider forms of insecurity. Hence, are nurtured, providing a source of interventions would have significant violence not only for taxi bosses, but associated benefits, reducing crime for other buyers of violence too. It is and insecurity, and providing better an urgent necessity for this industry to opportunities for young men trapped be better regulated and policed, with in these environments of violence.

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4. Bolster prosecution-led that are not reported by the media. investigations Improved monitoring can result in the detection of cycles, particularly During the Moerane Commission, it in gang- and taxi-related hits, and was suggested that prosecution- possibly assist in prevention and early led investigations would be a way intervention. Much greater efforts are in which to improve the arrest required to determine how successful and conviction rate of political are investigations and prosecutions in murders.38 A prosecution-led cases of targeted killing. There is no investigation essentially entails an conclusive data on this, and interviews experienced prosecutor directing suggest that the case resolution rate the investigation to ensure that it is remains low. The state seldom provides properly prepared for presentation disaggregated data on murder, in court.39 An amendment to the which greatly hampers the ability to National Prosecuting Authority Act in develop more effective responses to 2000 made provision for prosecution- different types of murder, including led investigations, by carving out a targeted killings. There are important function in the investigation of the opportunities here for cooperation crime specifically for prosecutors.40 between the state and other A primary reason for creating this stakeholders in local government, civil function was to improve investigations society and the private sector. involving organized-crime, fraud and corruption cases, as the established approach to law enforcement had been ineffective in dealing with local and international developments in organized crime.41 Since their introduction into the criminal-justice system, prosecution-led investigations have also seen successes in the investigation and conviction of rape cases.42 5. Expand efforts at monitoring assassinations and disaggregate homicide data

It is the responsibility of both government and civil society to monitor hits and assassinations in South Africa. The work done, for example, by the South African Local Government Association in recording the deaths of municipal councillors and officials is of great importance.43 Other projects have recorded the number of political killings, and lobby for action from the authorities.44 Improvements in monitoring must be made to increase the scope in areas that are not adequately covered – for example in rural areas or cases

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Notes and references

1 Louis Schlesinger, The contract murderer: 8 The Oxford Research Encyclopaedia of patterns, characteristics, and dynamics, Journal Criminology and Criminal Justice describes of Forensic Sciences, 46, 5 (2001), 1119–1123; quantitative content analysis as ‘aiming to JA Black, Murder for hire: An exploratory study distil the many words presented in a text into of participant relationships; L Brolan, D Wilson meaningful categories. These categories and E Yardley, Hitmen and the spaces of can then be treated as variables, allowing for contract killing: The doorstep hitman, Journal of a descriptive interpretation of the texts, or Investigative Psychology and Offender Profiling, functioning as variables in statistical analysis.’ 13 (2016), 220–238; D MacIntyre et al, The See Lisa Kort-Butler, Content analysis in British hitman: 1974–2013, Howard Journal of the study of crime, media, and popular Criminal Justice, 53 (2014), 325–340; Jenny culture, Oxford Research Encyclopaedias, Mouzos and John Venditto, Contract killings September 2016, https://doi.org/10.1093/ in Australia, Public Policy Series (Australian acrefore/9780190264079.013.23. Institute of Criminology, June 2003); Samuel Cameron, Killing for money and the economic 9 For more information on the Sabinet theory of crime, Review of Social Economy, 72, database, see: www.sabinet.co.za. 1 (2013), 28–41; David Wilson and Mohammed Rahman, Becoming a hitman, Howard Journal of 10 Mark Shaw and Kim Thomas, The Criminal Justice, 54, 3 (July 2015), 250–264. commercialization of assassination: ‘Hits’ and contract killing in South Africa, 2000–2015, 2 James Black, Murder for hire: An exploratory African Affairs, 2016, 1–24, doi:10.1093/ study of participant relationships, in PH afraf/adw050. Blackman et al (eds), The Varieties of Homicide and its Research: Proceedings of the 1999 11 For more on the findings of this Annual Meeting of the Homicide Research fieldwork, see: Azwi Netshikulwe, Violence Working Group. Washington, DC: Federal Bureau begets violence: How hitmen transform of Investigation, 2000, p 226. the taxi industry and empower themselves (forthcoming), and Ncedo Mngqibisa, ‘Fertile 3 See South Africa’s Riotous Assemblies Act routes’: How the government and private 17 of 1956. sector fuel taxi violence (forthcoming).

4 For example, there have been numerous 12 This resulted in the publication recorded hits of high-level criminal figures that of Mark Shaw and Kim Thomas’s, The were linked to disputes, most notably around commercialization of assassination: ‘Hits’ and the drugs trade. contract killing in South Africa, 2000–2015, African Affairs, 2016, 1–24, doi:10.1093/ 5 Ardil Jabar and Richard Matzopoulos, afraf/adw050. Violence and injury observatories: Reducing the burden of injury in high-risk communities, SA 13 Zaryab Iqbal and Christopher Zorn, The Crime Quarterly, 59 (March 2017): 47. political consequences of assassination, Journal of Conflict Resolution, 52, 3 (2008), 6 Mark Shaw and Luke Lee Skywalker, The 385–400. hammermen: Life and death as a gang hitman in Cape Town, Howard Journal of Criminal 14 A recent study in Mexico, for example, Justice, 55 (2016): 377–395. has shown an increase in assassinations of mayors, mayoral candidates and even former 7 Anine Kriegler, South African crime stats mayors in recent years. Laura Y Calderon, an show police struggling to close cases, The analysis of mayoral assassinations in Mexico, Conversation, 31 October 2017, https:// 2000–17, Justice in Mexico, Working Paper Vol. theconversation.com/south-african-crime- 15, No. 1, January 2018. stats-show-police-struggling-to-close- cases-86429. 15 See, for example, Mark Shaw, Hitmen

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for Hire: South Africa’s Underworld Exposed, to Sam Issa’s murder and a key witness in transparency.org/news/feature/corruption_ Cape Town and Johannesburg: Jonathan Ball the state’s case against Radovan Krejcir. The perceptions_index_2017. Publishers, 2017. state pleaded with him to go into witness protection and testify. Nare refused, saying, 30 It is important to note, however, that it is 16 Nicholas Barnes, Criminal politics: An ‘I mean I have been in a position where I too early to tell if there is in fact a declining integrated approach to the study of organized saw one of the people you are protecting pattern, as cases often only reflect in the crime, politics, and violence, Perspectives on being compromised … he was actually about media later on and violence can easily flare up Politics, 15, 4 (December 2017), 967–987. to be killed.’ For more on this case, see at any point. Angelique Serrao, Krejcir: Business as Usual. 17 Mark Shaw and Kim Thomas, The Johannesburg and Cape Town: Jonathan Ball 31 Firearms Control Act 60 of 2000. commercialization of assassination: ‘Hits’ and Publishers, 2016, pp 195–202. contract killing in South Africa, 2000–2015, 32 Gun Free South Africa, Firearms Control African Affairs, 2016, 1–24, doi:10.1093/ 27 Interview, court advocacy officer, Cape Briefing 6 of 2017: Reducing illicit flows: afraf/adw050. Town, 24 November 2017. Contributing to sustainable development, 21 June 2017, http://www.gfsa.org.za/wp- 18 Steven Levitsky and Daniel Ziblatt, How 28 To do this, we made use of the IntegriTAS content/uploads/2017/08/2017_Briefing6_ Democracies Die, Crown Publishing, 2018, pp Threat Assessment System to map and SDG16.4_ReducingIllicitArmsFlows.pdf. 24–25. monitor the threat of assassinations. The IntegriTAS Threat Assessment System helps 33 Marianne Thamm, When hell is not hot 19 David Bruce, A provincial concern?: national and local institutions identify the enough: A top cop who supplied weapons Political killings in South Africa, South African threat of organized crime in terms of its to country’s gangsters and right wingers, Crime Quarterly, 45 (2014), 20. potential to distort politics. The system Daily Maverick, 4 July, 2016, https://www. focuses on the threat and, ‘instead of dailymaverick.co.za/article/2016-07-04- 20 For more on the impact of violence and seeking to establish the existence of such when-hell-is-not-hot-enough-a-top-cop-who- intimidation on democracy, see Justin Steyn, links or their impact, allows users to map supplied-weapons-to-countrys-gangsters- Violence in democracy: The political killing and focus on the factors that contribute and-right-wingers/. and intimidation of local representatives to this type of corruption, and identify and administrators, South African Local related strategies to prevent or mitigate the 34 Gun Free South Africa, Firearms Control Government Association, 2017. threat’. The system looks at both democratic Briefing 1 of 2017: Strong gun laws save lives; structure and vulnerabilities at different poor enforcement kills, disables and costs, 15 21 These cases include brakes being cut, geographical levels and the presence and February 2017, http://www.gfsa.org.za/wp- cars being driven/forced off the road, or scope of organized-crime networks. This content/uploads/2017/08/2017_Briefing1_ other suspicious circumstances. These were provides users with the ability to map and StrongGunLawsSavePoorEnforcementKills included in cases where the circumstances monitor the threat, and plan prevention DisablesCosts.pdf. surrounding the incident suggested it was a and mitigation strategies. For the purposes hit. of the South African IntegriTAS Pilot, we 35 Mark Shaw, Hitmen for Hire: Exposing narrowed down the assassinations data South Africa’s underworld, Cape Town: 22 Interview, criminal-defence attorney, Cape to the past five years, focusing on data Jonathan Ball Publishers, 2017. Town, 18 September 2017. from 2012 to 2016. Of this data, we also narrowed the focus concerning the type of 36 Zimasa Matiwane and Bheki Mbanjwa, Hit 23 Interview, prosecutor (National assassination in relation to the type of data men for hire at Glebelands Hostel, IOL, 18 July Prosecuting Authority), Cape Town, 30 we measured the threat against. 2017, https://www.iol.co.za/news/south- November 2017. africa/kwazulu-natal/hit-men-for-hire-at- 29 Rank – a country’s position relative to glebelands-hostel-10342375. 24 Ibid. other countries included in the index. Score indicates the perceived level of public- 37 Mark Shaw and Kim Thomas, The 25 Interview, criminal-defence attorney, Cape sector corruption on a scale of 1 to 100 in a commercialization of assassination: ‘Hits’ and Town, 18 September 2017. country, where 0 means that the country is contract killing in South Africa, 2000–2015, perceived as highly corrupt and 100 means African Affairs, 116, 465 (October 2017), 17. 26 Interview, criminal-defence attorney, Cape that the country is perceived as free from Town, 18 September 2017. An example of this graft. See Transparency International’s 2017 38 Kaveel Singh, Investigation methods, is the case of Jacob Nare. Nare was a witness Corruption Perceptions Index, https://www. police training under scrutiny at Moerane

33 The rule of the gun Assassination Witness

Commission, News 24, 21 February 2018, https://www.news24.com/SouthAfrica/ News/investigation-methods-police- training-under-scrutiny-at-moerane- commission-20180221.

39 Correspondence with a court advocacy officer, Cape Town, 22 February 2018.

40 Moses Montesh, A critical analysis of crime investigative system within the South African criminal justice system: A comparative study, PhD thesis, University of South Africa, 2007, 194.

41 Joey Berning and Moses Montesh, Countering corruption in South Africa: The rise and fall of the Scorpions and Hawks, SA Crime Quarterly, 39 (March 2012), 4.

42 Interview with a court advocacy officer, Cape Town, 24 November 2017.

43 Justin Steyn, Violence in democracy: The political killing and intimidation of local representatives and administrators, South African Local Government Association, 2017.

44 David Bruce, A provincial concern?: Political killings in South Africa, South African Crime Quarterly, 45 (2014), 13–24.

34 www.assassinationwitness.org.za

@AssassinationZA

March 2018