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Institute for the Future, Mello Park, Calif: SPONS AGENCY ? National ;10 DOCUMENT RESUME AP ED 110' 011 IR 002 279 AUTHOR Amara, Roy TITLE. Toward Understanding, ,the Socialfmpactof Computers. IFF Report R-29. INSTITUTION 'Institute for the Future, MeLlo Park, Calif: SPONS AGENCY ?National Science Foundation, Washington, D.C. , . 'PUB DATE- ° May 74 . NOTE 141p. j 'AVA'ILABLE FROM Institute for the Future, 2740 Sand Hill Road, Menlo i Park, California 94015 (f10.00) 1.. / . EDRS PRICE MF-$0.76 PLUSATAGE,HC Not Available from EDRS. DESCRIPTORS" Adult Education; *Attitudes;. Computer"Pnograms; *Computers; Computer Science Education; Conference Reports;. Decision Makin Electronic Data Processing; Financial Policy; *,Future (of Society); Puplic Opinion; Scientific Literac .Simulation; Sodial . Attitudes; *Social Change; T_c ological Advancement; *Values 'IDENTIFIERS Computer Literacy; /FP; *Inttitute FOr The Future ABSTRACT r- Summaries of four,. workshops sponsored by the Institute For The Future' (IFF) are presented. Each'focuses on a ,particular aspect'of:the social impact of.computers:(1) computer models and simulatiohs Is aids to decision making;(2) the usd of computers in financitl'operations; 13) perceptions,attitudes, and literacy regarding computers knowledge about the capabilitirs ' and limitation's of computers in meeting humanneeds).; and (4) .individual access to domp ters. Workshop participants and e IFF * staff conclude that there is a need for. th to acqu re a deeper.understanding of 'how computers of ct the decisions individuals and organizations make, -the goods and services they produce, and tfleirorld that individual,perceive. It is also concluded that such improved understan ing must be acquiredin the near future. A programof education p the public 'is lyen propost4.... (Author/DGC) a v .4 , . ***********************i****ffi****** ********************************** * Documents alcguired,by ERIC-include many informalunpublished .* * materials eot Orailable from other sources. ERIC makes everyeffort * * to obtain the best copy available. nevertheless,items of marginal * * reproducibility are often encountered and this affectsthe quality *' * of the microfiche and hardcopy reproductions. ERICmakes available. ,* * /ia,the ERIC Document Reproduction Service (EM) .EDRS is not * * responsible for the quality of the original document.Reproductions * * supplied by EDRS are the best that can be made from theoriginal.- * 300300***41300011311****300430011****3011311300***44300041**311311***31141***300*300011 300******3011. 'y .1 IT r TOWARD UNDERSTANDING THE SOCIAL IMPACT OF COMPUTERS 1 goy Amara , . Supported by National Science Foundation 0 Grant Number GJ-37008 ' *4 S 4 Institute for the Future 2740 Sand Hill Road Menlo Park, California' 94025_. $ 0 May 1974/ I U.S DEPARTMENT OP HEALTH, REPRODUCE 'TAOS Report R-.29 PERMISSION TO EY MICRO EDUCATION &WELFARE COPYRIGHTED MATERIAL AY NATIONALINSTITUTS OP FICHE ONLY HAS AF ENGRANTEE) EDUCATION WE MS DOCUMENT HAS SEENREPRO DUCED4XACTLY AS RECEIVED FROM THE PERSON OR OROANIZATION ORGANIZATIONS OPERAT ORIGIN TO ERIC AND WETH THE NA ATING IT POINTS OF VIEW OROPINIONS 'NG UNDER AGREEMENTS STATED p0 NOT NECISSAISILYREP!! OF EDUCATION SENT OPP ICIAL NATIONAL INSTITUTE TIONAL INSTITUTE OUTSIDE OP FURTHER REPRODUQPION EDUCATION POSITION OR POL)CY 22 REQUIRES PERMIT o THE ERIC SYSTEMCOPYRIGHT OWNER " SION OF THE S p ti The Institute for the Future is an independent 'researchorganization, founded as .a nonprofit corporation for/work solely the public interest. It is dedicated exclusively to systematic and compretier0e study ofthe lonkrange future. ' The Institute's primary aims, as formulated liiivit§ Articles of Incorporation, are fourfold: ,. ' : - -,. - ".... to enlirge existing understanding concerning techkologicni, envieonmental, and societal changes ann. their long -range consequences; to develop new methodology to cant' on 4uch tails; to make available 1,viithout discrimination the results of such research and scientific advaes to t ublic; and taserve as an educational and traintrig centerfoi''sel rsis business, govern- ment, foundations, and universities vdth respeto su search activities." ' The Institute's research firogram has two major components: development of 4' forecasting methods for the analysis and 'synthesis of potential futures, and the application of suchamethods to theprokleyns of society. Among thygeneral areas of this research are thefulnre state iinifeiJnion;thd.influence of future 'technological developments on societal trends; social indicators and the quality of life; and lonerangeurban.and national planning, More specific topics have 'also been examined; s'uch, as Ike futurienffinsing, plastics, computers, com- munications, insurance, education, and employee kenefits., Institute research giaeraljy is conducted by means. Of.such futures - analytic techniques as the Delphi method, cross- impact analysis, and simulation,as well as the more . 0 traditional methods of physical- Mid social-science research., Y. "ft S CONTENTS PREFACE -v ACKNCAILEDG vi i I. BACKGROUND AND PURPOSED A. Introduction 1 . B. The Problem: . .,,e. , 3- .. - r. C. 'The Choices . , \ .. 7 . f, . ,, . II. STUDY APPROACH . 9 A. Identification Of,Critical Issues . 9 a B. Selection of'Experts : . 10 C. Data Collection \ 11 lib. Data Integration 11 III: SUMMARY AND RECOMMENDATIONS 1,5 A., Computers as Tools in Decision. Makihg 16 Bs Computers as Elements in Operational Systems ,: . 11. 19 C. Computers 'as Shapers of Perceptions, Behavior, f i and Attitudes . 21 D. / Evalution of Program Areas 4, 25 E.lProgram Implementation 3,0 . , IV. WORKSHOP ON COMPUTER MODELING,AND SIMULATION ASAN AID TO DECISION MAKING Ad Workshop Participants 33- S B. Workshop Summary ' . 33 C. Candidate Program Area 36 D.4 Summary and Discussion of Invited Papers , . ." 41 ' 0 E. Guideline Questions .for the WbrkShop . .. .... ... 46 4. V. WORKSHOP ON COMPUTERS AND FINANCIAL PROCESSES . ) . , A4 WorkshoNarticipants 49 B. WorkshopStunmari. 49 Candidate Program Areas 52 D. Panel Reports 55, Preintegration Critivies 69 E. 414 F. ;Guideline questions fOr the Workshop It. 0 0 72 iii 5- 4. 1" 0 . VI. WORKSHOP ON COMPUTER PERCEPTIONS, ATTITUDES, AND LITERACY., -75 ,A. ,Workshop Participants 75 B: Workshop Summary 75 C. Candidate Program Areas 78 D. Summary and Discussion of Invited Papers 863 E. Panel Reports . 84 F. Guideline Questions for the Workshop 90 VII. WORKSHOP ON COMPUTERS#ANDINDIVIDUAL ACCESS . ,.. .93 r , A. Workshop Participants 93 B. Workshop Summary 93 C. Candidate Program Areas . J. 96 b. Summary and Discussion of Invited Papers . 99 E. ,Panel Reports ' ; 105 F. Guideline Quest irons for the Workshop 111 1 41 4 ' APPENDIX A: FRAMEWORK FOR ASSESSING SOCIAL IMPACT 113 % APPENDIX B: BIOGiAPHIES,OF WORKSHOP PARTICIPANTS 115 . REFERENCES 131 .? \ ---------..), -, 0. 1`. ti 1 I 4 A t-4 r PREFACE In the spring of 1973 the Institute for the Future held a series, of four workshops,* each focusing on a particular aspect of the social 4mpact .of-oemputers:-(1) computer models'and simulations as aids to'decision r9 4 :making; (2) the use of computers in financial operations;(3) perceptions, 1. attitudes, and literacy regarding computers (1.e., knowledge about the ca- . pabilities and limitations of'computers in meeting human heeds); and (4) individual access to computers; The collective purpose of these workshops was twofold to define some of the_most important. societal issues stem- 1 ming framthe present and potential uses of computers; and to formulate an .1 effective program of study, research, and demonstration 'for achieving a 0 bette understanding oethese issues. This report reflects the distilled and eollectilierjUdgments'of approx- . imately sixty workshop Participants, supplemented by the research and anal-, ysis of the staff of the Institutd for the Future. It poses questions rath-' er than provides answers about the present and future solt1 impact of corn- / puters. These questions covey two principal messages. The first, is-an, early warning ef\the need to.aCquire a deeper understanding of how.compu- 'ters affect the decisions we make; the goods and services we Rroduce,",and, the wOrld.we pexceive.The seconOinessage is an urgency to begin the job of systematically acquiring this improved.understanding now, before it is 4 too late. A program for doing this is formulated and proposed ,4erein; the , `estimated cost of, this program,is believed to compare very favorably With the perceived societal benefits of moving'toward the'develiPpment of a more humane and socially useful compuXer technApgy. '*A fifth workShop was'held at theeend of the series to help integrate and evaluate the results of the four preceding workshopS. e ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS This study represents the efforts of many people.First are the work-. 'thiltp participants,* whose collective judgmentsare reflected in the study .* findings., Next are the workshop cochairmen, who helped provide structure . to the workshops: Dr. Willis Ware, MX. Walter Carlson, Dr. John Meyer (as- . 0 sisted by Dr. Donald Farrar),and.Mr. Paul Axmer (who assisted in the work- thop planning but wasunable to participate in the sessions).,To this-list must be added the staff metibtrs of the Division,of Computer ResearchoN . tional Science Foundation, vho'provided guidance in the planning and exe- cutionof the workshops:er. John Pasta, Dr. Fred Weingarten, Dr. Granger Morgan,'and particularly Dr. Peter tykos, who was instrumental rh bringing the *o,rkshop series into being/ And finally are the following Institute r staffs members: Miss Bryna
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