Innovation for Economic Stability $

THE ATLAS OF Innovation for Economic Stability $ $ $ $ $ $ Supported by The Atlas of Innovation for Economic Stability 1 Atlas- (n) A book of maps or charts. Innovation- (n) Anything different than standard practice that has the potential for radical social, environmental, or economic impact. Economic Stability- (n) The ability to meet basic needs and to prosper, even in the face of economic, political, or social volatility. ISBN 0-89492-927-5 2 The Atlas of Innovation for Economic Stability Acknowledgements FHI 360 would like to acknowledge the generous support of The Rockefeller Foundation for this research and crowdsourcing effort, and the constructive engagement and feedback provided by Alyson Wise, Associate Director, Jobs, and Ashvin Dayal, Associate Vice President & Managing Director, Smart Power. Phil Psilos served as FHI 360’s principal investigator. FHI 360 team members include lead researcher Claire Gillum, writer Shawn Kelley, art director and graphic designer Irinn Viniaphat, and social media lead Leanne Gray. An expert group including Caroline Averch, Bryanna Millis, Monika Aring, and Jacqueline Bass provided input and feedback on the research process. FHI 360’s Ivan Charner and Michael Tetelman provided invaluable reviews of a draft version of the Atlas. In addition, Tanya Accone, UNICEF, Derval Usher and Dwayne Caruthers, Pulse Lab Jakarta, and Tim Nourse, Making Cents International, made significant written contributions pertaining to their organizations and activities. The Atlas of Innovation for Economic Stability 3 How to Navigate this Interactive PDF Click on any bold chapter title in the text or icon to navigate to that chapter Stabilizing Jobs and Gigs focuses on work-linked innovations that help both employees and non-standard workers cope with present and future instability. These include several technology- enabled efforts by global brands to encourage worker welfare and labor standards compliance; Where you see an innovation listed in bold text, click to go to its profile on work-linked innovations that help both employees and non-standard workers cope with present and future instability. Some of these, including LaborLink and Workplace Options, Golden Dreams, and the Strategic Partnership for Supply Chain Transformation are forging new technology-enabled alliances between global brands, local employers, and employees to improve worker wellbeing and strengthen; Click to navigate to The Table of Contents or to a specific chapter from anywhere in the document 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Click this icon at the bottom of the right-hand pages to return to the introduction Back to Innovations by Chapter 4 The Atlas of Innovation for Economic Stability Table of Contents 1 2 3 $ mBANKING $ $ $ Reg. 4 5 6 $ 7 8 9 T PASSPOR 10 11 12 Annex 1 Annex 2 Annex 3 The Atlas of Innovation for Economic Stability 1 1 Executive Summary Building on previous work to define the landscape and key indicators of inclusive economies, in 2017 The Rockefeller Foundation provided support to FHI 360 to engage in a global search to identify policy, program, and technology innovations that promote economic stability for individuals, communities, firms, and countries, with an emphasis on the welfare of poor and vulnerable people worldwide. This Atlas of Innovation for Economic Stability is the output of our global research and crowdsourcing effort. I A wave of good economic news in 2018 has not fundamentally altered the basic story of a slow and imbalanced economic recovery from the 2008 financial crisis. The aftermath Context accelerated growth in wealth and income inequality, economic fragility of the middle class across the developed world, and saw little improvement in the livelihoods of most people who live in lower-income countries and work in the informal sector. In the US and Europe, stagnant or declining real wages and a shift towards non- standard work are now widely recognized as eroding longstanding social bargains, creating a large new class of formerly middle-class workers referred to as the “precariat.” Unstable work arrangements introduced over the past 30 years and accelerated by the “gig” and “platform” economies, and predicted large-scale job loss or restructuring resulting from automation and other features of an oncoming “Fourth Industrial Revolution,” portend a future of greater volatility in how people work and earn. In high-income OECD countries, this means less certainty about opportunities in the formal job market. For developing countries, it interrupts development trajectories that assumed the growth of mass industrial employment would be a stepping stone to higher incomes. In this sense, there appears to be a convergence in process in which income earners around the world are likely to face more similar baseline levels of uncertainty and instability. This is the case despite significant progress in reducing poverty in the developing world, rapid growth in many emerging economies, emergence of dynamic technology sectors in India, China, Kenya, Indonesia, and Vietnam, and broad-based global commitment to achieving the Sustainable Development Goals. II For individuals, households, and communities, economic stability is the ability to meet basic Framing needs and to prosper, even in the face of economic, political, or social volatility. Influences on Economic economic stability encompass macroeconomic management, regulatory quality, social Stability safety nets and labor protection, labor and agricultural markets, personal security, and basic rights, including recognition of identity, property, and fair treatment by government. Together these factors comprise a “funnel,” depicted in Figure 1, with more macro-factors at the top, meso-factors related to interaction with the market in the middle layers, and more personal micro-influences at the base. Our findings are also presented in order, from top-to-bottom of the funnel. 2 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 GOVERNMENT AND SYSTEMS STABILITY INFLUENCE ATLAS CHAPTER Macroeconomic policy and management Governance and regulation Small Enterprises, Unlimited Stabilizing Jobs and Gigs Social and labor protection Consumption Floors and Nets Financial sector and inclusion Inclusive Financialization Agricultural and labor markets Big Data, Small Devices Public safety and emergency services Collective Security Identity, individual land and property rights Personhood and Rights INIVIDUALS AND FIRMS When people and firms are supported in all of these dimensions, they have the confidence and predictability required to invest in their own futures, the means of investing at acceptable levels of risk and of capturing the returns on their investments, and economic resilience to shocks and stresses. Access to services and supports across the funnel ultimately helps ensure sufficient stability of income and consumption to allow economic advancement even when confronted with volatility. Stability-enhancing policies and programs such as retirement and unemployment benefits, labor standards, and crop insurance are traditional hallmarks of more advanced economies. Outside of the European Union, many social protections are linked to employment in the formal sector and tend to develop in middle-income countries as national wealth and formal sector employment rises. In lower- and lower- middle income countries, the vast majority who are own-account and contributing family workers—for example, those engaged in subsistence agriculture or mixed livelihoods—lack access to work-based social and labor protections, and households and communities typically bear the full risk of their economic participation. The current trend towards non-standard work and risk of elimination of formal sector jobs through automation calls into question the viability of existing work-linked social protection mechanisms at several levels of this funnel, and makes the pathway out of extreme instability for lower-income country workers unclear. Our holistic view of economic stability departs from the common understanding in the global development community, where stability is often treated as a macroeconomic condition or a social outcome of economic prosperity. Many economists value macroeconomic and regulatory predictability but neglect the micro-foundations that $ allow people to prosper from stability. Stability as a goal may not be exciting enough to attract the attention of donor governments and agencies. And in some contexts, stability is confused with stagnation, framed as an alternative to economic advancement rather than as a critical enabler. Past work supported by the Rockefeller Foundation and our own research suggest that bringing stability out of the “background” and into the center of the global development conversation can improve performance of global efforts to achieve inclusive economic growth. 3 III In addition to the widespread concerns about volatility in global labor markets and the future of work, we identified two big trends that are expanding the private and public- Big Trends private provision of services that support of economic stability: the democratization Enabling of data access on mobile devices and the trend towards more inclusive financialization. Innovation The rapid expansion ofmobile phone technology in the developing world, including mobile data services on smartphones, and associated technology trends that make advanced data and analytics services available through applications delivered to these smartphones, has opened up a world of innovation across all of the layers of the stability funnel.

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