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7Domestic and External Debt 7Domestic and External Debt 7.1 Overview1 The improvement in the government‟s debt Figure 7.1: Deficits and Public Debt Stock burden last year proved short lived: public CAB Fiscal balance Public debt (rhs) debt-to-GDP has increased to 62.6 percent in 2 14 2 FY12, after falling in FY11. With an increase 12 of Rs 1.9 trillion during the year, Pakistan‟s 0 10 total public debt now stands at Rs 12.9 trillion -2 3 (Figure 7.1). This sharp rise was due to a 8 -4 large fiscal deficit (including one-off payment percent 6 for the settlement of PSE debt); and exchange -6 losses stemming from the depreciation of the 4 trillionRupees Pak Rupee. -8 2 -10 0 Most of the increase in public debt was 4 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 contributed by domestic debt: its share has FY06 increased from 54.7 percent in FY11, to 59.1 Source: Ministry of Finance and SBP percent in FY12 (Table 7.1). On the other hand, the stock of public external debt has declined by US$ 2 billion due to repayments to the IMF and currency revaluation impact. However, in Rupee terms, this stock has increased due to the depreciation of Pak Rupee against US Dollar in FY12.5 Since the persistently large fiscal deficits in Table 7.1: Public Debt Vulnerability Indicators the past few years have been financed percent primarily by costlier domestic sources, this has raised concerns regarding debt FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 sustainability. In this context, two points are Public debt/GDP 60.7 61.6 62.4 60.9 62.6 Public debt/revenues 414.6 423.3 444.1 486.2 503.6 worth noting: firstly, within domestic sources, Domestic debt/total a heavy reliance on expensive short-term debt public debt 52.7 49.3 50.4 54.7 59.1 has increased the debt servicing burden of the Floating debt/domestic country, and has also intensified roll-over and debt 50.0 49.3 51.5 53.8 54.2 interest rate risks;6 and secondly, Pakistan has Source: State Bank of Pakistan been running a revenue deficit for the past six years, implying that a large part of public borrowings (that financed its current expenditures) did not add to the repayment capacity of the economy (Figure 7.2).7 These debt dynamics indicate that Pakistan could move into a debt trap.8 1 This analysis is based on the SBP‟s definition of public debt, which is different from Ministry of Finance coverage of public debt. For details, see Box 7.1. 2 In FY11, public debt-to-GDP had declined to 60.9 percent from 62.4 percent a year ago (see Table 7.2). 3 According to Ministry of Finance, public debt has reached Rs 12.7 trillion by end June 2012. 4 Around 84 percent of the entire increase in the public debt stock during FY12 was contributed by domestic debt, whereas the residual increase was caused by increase in Rupee value of external debt on account of depreciation of Pak Rupee. 5 Countries normally contract debt in various currencies, which is converted into US Dollar at a particular point in time, for reporting purposes. The exchange rate movements of US Dollar against these currencies cause significant changes in the external debt stock of these countries, which is referred as currency revaluation impact. 6 Debt servicing payments have surpassed government‟s tax revenue receipts (after adjusting for provincial share) since last year. 7 Revenue balance is the gap between total revenue and current expenditures of the government. In FY12, the revenue deficit stood at 62.5 percent of the country‟s interest payments. 8 Debt trap refers to a situation, when a country incurs a large amount of debt in comparison to its income. As a result, high interest payments prevent repayment of the principal. According to ADB (2002), the classic symptoms of debt trap include: falling investment rates, declining development and social spending by the government, and progressively lower rates of State Bank of Pakistan Annual Report 2011-12 Table 7.2: Profile of Pakistan's Debt and Liabilities FY10 FY11 FY12 FY10 FY11 FY12 billion Rupees percent of GDP Total debt & liabilities 10,702.2 12,530.0 14,587.0 72.3 69.5 70.6 Public debt1 9,229.1 10,990.7 12,924.3 62.4 60.9 62.6 Total debt 10,069.9 11,908.4 13,921.6 68.0 66.0 67.4 Govt. domestic debt2 4,650.8 6,012.2 7,638.3 31.4 33.3 37.0 PSEs domestic debt 375.0 411.5 281.1 2.5 2.3 1.4 External debt 5,040.8 5,484.7 6,002.3 34.1 30.4 29.1 Govt. external debt 3,667.1 3,987.7 4,364.5 24.8 22.1 21.1 IMF loans 690.3 768.7 694.3 4.7 4.3 3.4 PSEs external debt 131.2 116.6 144.2 0.9 0.6 0.7 Private sector external debt 386.2 470.4 600.6 2.6 2.6 2.9 Intercompany debt 166.1 141.2 198.7 1.1 0.8 1.0 Total liabilities 635.5 621.6 665.4 4.3 3.4 3.2 Domestic liabilities 414.6 399.5 438.1 2.8 2.2 2.1 External liabilities 220.9 222.1 227.3 1.5 1.2 1.1 Total debt servicing 978.4 1,017.4 1,260.2 6.6 5.6 6.1 Interest payment 715.0 807.1 966.3 4.8 4.5 4.7 Domestic debt 577.7 650.3 811.2 3.9 3.6 3.9 External debt3 82.9 90.6 89.8 0.6 0.5 0.4 Domestic liabilities 52.1 65.0 64.2 0.4 0.4 0.3 External liabilities 2.3 1.3 1.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 Repayment of principal (foreign) 263.4 210.3 294.0 1.8 1.2 1.4 1. Public debt include govt. domestic debt, govt. external debt, IMF loans & external liabilities 2. Domestic debt also includes Rupee value of FEBCs, FCBCs, DBCs and Special US Dollar Bonds held by the residents 3. Principal repayment of scheduled bank is excluded from the analysis. Source: State Bank of Pakistan In this context, it is not surprising to see the Figure 7.2: Public Debt Vulnerability Indicators current level of Pakistan‟s debt stock above Revenue deficit domestic and international standards. Interest payments Specifically, public debt in Pakistan is subject Debt servicing /Tax revenue after provincial share (rhs) 1100 115 to limits prescribed in the FRDL Act (2005), 110 which places a ceiling on the public debt-to- 900 GDP ratio of 60 percent by end FY13, which 105 is to be achieved by running a positive revenue 700 100 9 balance after 2008. A public debt-to-GDP 95 500 percent ratio of 62.6 percent in FY12, along with billionRupees 90 300 persistent revenue deficits, reflects the need 85 for a significant fiscal adjustment in FY13.10 100 80 Similarly, this ratio is also higher than the 11 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 threshold level identified by the IMF. In FY08 addition, an international comparison shows Source: Ministry of Finance GDP growth. These factors further weaken macroeconomic performance of the country, making the servicing of debt even more difficult. 9 The Act also envisages an annual 2.5 percentage point reduction in this ratio after achieving the 60 percent benchmark by end FY13. 10 Although the condition for 60 percent of debt-to-GDP ratio was met ahead of schedule in FY06, this achievement could not be sustained. 11 IMF (2011), “Modernizing the Framework for Fiscal Policy and Public Debt Sustainability Analysis”, Fiscal Affairs Department and the Strategy Policy and Review Department. According to IMF, at a public debt level of 60 percent of GDP, detailed analysis of risks to sustainability arising from high debt levels should be conducted. 74 Domestic and External Debt that Pakistan‟s gross debt is higher than the Table 7.3: International Comparison - Gross Debt/GDP average for both emerging, as well as low- percent income economies (Table 7.3). However, 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Pakistan fares better than many European Low income countries 39.1 41.3 38.6 38.2 39.5 countries. In our view, the on-going Euro Advanced economies 81.5 93.0 99.3 103.5 106.5 crisis is likely to persist as most European Emerging economies 34.7 36.7 41.0 37.6 35.7 countries are still struggling to contain their China 17.0 17.7 33.5 25.8 22.0 massive debt-to-GDP ratios (Table 7.4). India 74.7 75.0 69.4 68.1 67.6 Pakistan* 60.7 61.6 62.4 60.9 62.6 Stepping back, Pakistan‟s external *Data for Pakistan pertains to fiscal year. vulnerability has also increased during FY12; Source: Fiscal Monitor, Balancing Fiscal Policy Risks, April 2012, as in the absence of sufficient external IMF & State Bank of Pakistan inflows, the repayment burden of external Table 7.4: Government Debt-to-GDP Ratio in European Countries debt (along with the financing of current percent account deficit) fell on the country‟s FX 2011 2012 reserves.12 This resulted in downgrading of United Kingdom 82.5 88.4 Pakistan‟s sovereign credit rating to its lowest Austria 72.2 73.9 level, Caa1, by Moody‟s in July 2012.13 Belgium 98.5 99.1 France 86.1 88.2 Germany 81.2 82.2 These challenges to the macroeconomic Greece 165.4 162.6 stability of the country, emphasize the need Ireland 108.2 117.6 for fiscal consolidation.
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