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Mapping out Alternative Nuclear Weapons Futures for East Asia: What Impact Do Civil Nuclear Programs Have on Breakout Ability? Thomas B

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Mapping out Alternative Nuclear Weapons Futures for East Asia: What Impact Do Civil Nuclear Programs Have on Breakout Ability? Thomas B Mapping Out Alternative Nuclear Weapons Futures for East Asia: What Impact Do Civil Nuclear Programs Have on Breakout Ability? Thomas B. Cochran and Matthew G. McKinzie Natural Resources Defense Council (NRDC) Washington, D.C. Our paper examined civil nuclear assets of four East Asian countries that could be used in developing nuclear weapons, or rapidly expand an existing nuclear weapons arsenal. Historical Review of Nuclear Weapon Developments in Selected Countries Country R&D Fissile WH Design Sweden 1948-1972 Pu Implosion Israel mid 50s-late-60s Pu, then HEU Implosion India 1962-1974 Pu, then HEU Implosion S. Africa mid-60s-1989 Pu dropped, then HEU (nozzle) Gun DBRK 1960s-2009 Pu, then HEU Implosion Pakistan 1972-1998 HEU, then Pu Implosion (Chinese) Iraq 1971-2003 HEU (calutron, other), Pu Implosion Iran 1985-today HEU, next Pu Implosion Elements of Civil Nuclear Assets Pertinent to Nuclear Breakout Capabilities • Nuclear engineering software and physics data libraries that could be applied to fission weapon design; • High energy density physics research that could be re- directed to boosted fission and fusion weapon design; • Civil nuclear fuel uranium enrichment capabilities that could be re-purposed to produce weapons-grade uranium; • Cadres of experts in reactor engineering and nuclear materials chemistry and metallurgy; • Spent nuclear fuel inventories that could be reprocessed for weapons plutonium; Nuclear engineering software and physics data libraries that could be applied to fission weapon design: ANSYS Autodyn •Detonation Models MCNP •Shock Capturing •Thermal Models •Neutronics Models •Deformation Heating •Equations of State •Criticality •Thermal Expansion •Density & Phase •Flux Tallies •Heat Conduction •Geometry Deformation •Reaction Rate Tallies •Multi-Phase Transition & States USER DEFINED MODELS: •Spatially Dependent Fission Energy/Temperature Contributions Nuclear engineering software and physics data libraries that could be applied to fission weapon design: keff : Measure of Criticality fission neutrons in generation(i + 1) keff = fission neutrons in generation(i) keff < 1: subcritical (fission chain reaction will not sustain itself) keff = 1: critical (one critical mass - chain reaction will just sustain itself) keff > 1: supercritical (the number of fissions in the chain reaction will increase with time) Black Market Offering of Beryllium from the Former Soviet Union: Neutron Reflecting Materials: 3.0 Beryllium Oxide Beryllium 2.5 Tungsten Carbide Stainless Steel (316) 2.0 1.5 Densities 1.0 Beryllium Oxide: 3.01 g/cm3 Beryllium: 1.848 g/cm3 Tungsten Carbide: 14.8 g/cm3 Critical Masses (crits) Masses Critical 0.5 Stainless Steel (316): 7.8 g/cm3 0.0 0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 Thickness of Neutron Reflecting Materials (cm) High energy density physics research that could be re-directed to boosted fission and fusion weapon design: Spent Fuel Burnup Isotopics PWR 10 Power in KW/KG 35 U-235 965 U-238 burnup MWD/KG pu-238 pu-239 pu-240 pu-241 pu-242 % pu-240 pu-kg u-kg % pu 1 4.40E-05 5.00E-01 7.58E-03 2.78E-04 1.51E-06 1.5% 5.08E-01 9.99E+02 0.05% 2 1.89E-04 9.60E-01 2.85E-02 2.05E-03 2.25E-04 2.9% 9.90E-01 9.97E+02 0.10% 3 4.55E-04 1.381 6.04E-02 6.38E-03 1.07E-04 4.2% 1.45E+00 9.95E+02 0.15% 4 8.59E-04 1.769 1.02E-01 1.40E-02 3.17E-04 5.4% 1.89E+00 9.94E+02 0.19% 5 1.42E-03 2.125 1.50E-01 2.52E-02 7.26E-04 6.5% 2.30E+00 9.93E+02 0.23% 8 4.27E-03 3.03 3.28E-01 8.24E-02 3.97E-03 9.5% 3.45E+00 9.88E+02 0.35% 10 7.34E-03 3.517 4.65E-01 1.39E-01 8.65E-03 11.2% 4.14E+00 9.85E+02 0.42% 15 2.06E-02 4.421 8.38E-01 3.04E-01 3.34E-02 14.9% 5.64E+00 9.79E+02 0.57% 20 4.42E-02 4.996 1.23E+00 5.61E-01 8.14E-02 17.8% 6.91E+00 9.72E+02 0.71% 25 8.10E-02 5.349 1.63E+00 7.93E-01 1.55E-01 20.4% 8.01E+00 9.66E+02 0.82% 30 1.32E-01 5.558 2.05E+00 1.00E+00 2.51E-01 22.8% 8.99E+00 9.60E+02 0.93% 35 1.98E-01 5.675 2.51E+00 1.17E+00 3.64E-01 25.3% 9.92E+00 9.54E+02 1.03% 40 2.80E-01 5.736 2.72E+00 1.37E+00 5.23E-01 25.6% 1.06E+01 9.48E+02 1.11% 45 3.74E-01 5.766 2.88E+00 1.54E+00 7.00E-01 25.6% 1.13E+01 9.42E+02 1.18% 50 4.75E-01 5.779 2.99E+00 1.67E+00 8.87E-01 25.4% 1.18E+01 9.36E+02 1.24% 55 5.80E-01 5.784 3.07E+00 1.76E+00 1.08E+00 25.0% 1.23E+01 9.30E+02 1.30% Spent Fuel Burnup Isotopics BWR 10 Power in KW/KG 35 U-235 965 U-238 burnup MWD/KG pu-238 pu-239 pu-240 pu-241 pu-242 % pu-240 pu-kg u-kg % pu 1 4.50E-05 4.67E-01 8.29E-03 3.04E-04 2.30E-06 1.7% 4.76E-01 9.99E+02 0.05% 2 1.94E-04 8.94E-01 3.12E-02 2.25E-03 3.45E-05 3.4% 9.28E-01 9.97E+02 0.09% 3 4.69E-04 1.285 6.62E-02 7.04E-03 1.64E-04 4.9% 1.359 9.96E+02 0.14% 4 8.91E-04 1.643 1.11E-01 1.54E-02 4.89E-04 6.3% 1.771 9.94E+02 0.18% 5 1.48E-03 1.971 1.64E-01 2.80E-02 1.13E-03 7.6% 2.166 9.93E+02 0.22% 8 4.50E-03 2.797 3.57E-01 9.19E-02 6.24E-03 11.0% 3.257 9.88E+02 0.33% 10 7.80E-03 3.236 5.04E-01 1.56E-01 1.37E-02 12.9% 3.917 9.87E+02 0.40% 15 2.23E-02 4.035 8.94E-01 3.71E-01 5.35E-02 16.6% 5.376 9.79E+02 0.55% 20 4.87E-02 4.523 1.28E+00 6.29E-01 1.32E-01 19.4% 6.616 9.73E+02 0.68% 25 9.05E-02 4.809 1.65E+00 8.87E-01 2.54E-01 21.5% 7.70E+00 9.66E+02 0.79% 30 1.49E-01 4.968 2.01E+00 1.12E+00 4.16E-01 23.2% 8.66E+00 9.60E+02 0.89% 35 2.26E-01 5.052 2.36E+00 1.30E+00 6.10E-01 24.7% 9.55E+00 9.54E+02 0.99% 40 3.19E-01 5.093 2.51E+00 1.48E+00 8.57E-01 24.5% 1.03E+01 9.48E+02 1.07% 45 4.24E-01 5.112 2.61E+00 1.62E+00 1.12E+00 24.0% 1.09E+01 9.42E+02 1.14% 50 5.34E-01 5.121 2.68E+00 1.71E+00 1.40E+00 23.4% 1.14E+01 9.36E+02 1.21% 55 6.45E-01 5.125 2.72E+00 1.77E+00 1.66E+00 22.8% 1.19E+01 9.30E+02 1.27% Spent Fuel Burnup Isotopics HEAVY WATER REACTOR 10 Power in KW/KG 7.11 U-235 992.89 U-238 burnup MWD/KG pu-238 pu-239 pu-240 pu-241 pu-242 % pu-240 pu-kg u-kg % pu 1 3.32E-05 8.44E-01 5.24E-02 3.32E-03 9.56E-05 5.8% 9.00E-01 9.98E+02 0.09% 1.5 7.72E-05 1.15 1.05E-01 9.32E-03 4.06E-04 8.3% 1.26E+00 9.97E+02 0.13% 2 1.42E-04 1.401 0.1686 1.86E-02 1.09E-03 10.6% 1.59E+00 9.96E+02 0.16% 2.5 2.29E-04 1.61 2.40E-01 3.10E-02 2.30E-03 12.7% 1.88E+00 9.96E+02 0.19% 3 3.41E-04 1.784 3.16E-01 4.61E-02 4.16E-03 14.7% 2.15E+00 9.95E+02 0.22% 3.5 4.81E-04 1.93 3.97E-01 6.33E-02 6.76E-03 16.5% 2.40E+00 9.94E+02 0.24% 4 6.51E-04 2.053 4.80E-01 8.22E-02 1.02E-02 18.3% 2.63E+00 9.93E+02 0.26% 5 1.09E-03 2.244 6.54E-01 1.23E-01 1.97E-02 21.5% 3.04E+00 9.92E+02 0.31% 6 1.69E-03 2.379 8.34E-01 1.66E-01 3.29E-02 24.4% 3.41E+00 9.90E+02 0.34% 7 2.47E-03 2.474 1.02E+00 2.07E-01 4.96E-02 27.2% 3.75E+00 9.89E+02 0.38% 8 3.43E-03 2.541 1.21E+00 2.45E-01 6.93E-02 29.8% 4.07E+00 9.88E+02 0.41% 9 4.59E-03 2.588 1.41E+00 2.78E-01 9.15E-02 32.3% 4.37E+00 9.86E+02 0.44% 10 5.94E-03 2.619 1.63E+00 3.05E-01 1.15E-01 34.8% 4.67E+00 9.85E+02 0.47% “Simple, Quick Processing Plant” “Simple, Quick Processing Plant” From “Spent Fuel from Nuclear Power Reactors,” H.
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