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AIR POWER AIR POWER Journal of Air Power and Space Studies Vol. 12 No. 3 • Monsoon 2017 (July-September) Vol. 12 No. 3 • Monsoon 2017 • (July-September) 3 • Monsoon 12 No. Vol. contributors Shri NN Vohra • dr Manpreet Sethi • Ms Sana hashmi • dr temjenmeren ao • Ms pooja Bhatt • Air Marshal Bharat Kumar • Group Captain ashok K chordia • Group Captain ashish Gupta • dr poonam Mann ceNtre for air power StudieS, New delhi AIR POWER Journal of Air Power and Space Studies Vol. 12 No. 3, Monsoon 2017 (July-September) CENTRE FOR AIR POWER STUDIES VISION To be an independent centre of excellence on national security contributing informed and considered research and analyses on relevant issues. MISSION To encourage independent and informed research and analyses on issues of relevance to national security and to create a pool of domain experts to provide considered inputs to decision-makers. Also, to foster informed public debate and opinion on relevant issues and to engage with other think-tanks and stakeholders within India and abroad to provide an Indian perspective. AIR POWER CENTRE FOR AIR POWER STUDIES New Delhi AIR POWER is published quarterly by the Forum for National Security Studies for Centre for Air Power Studies, New Delhi. Board of Trustees Shri M.K. Rasgotra, former Foreign Secretary Chairman Dr Sanjaya Baru, Honorary Senior Fellow, Centre for Policy Research, Members Former Editor in Chief, Business Standard, former Media Adviser to PM Air Chief Marshal SP Tyagi PVSM AVSM VM (Retd), Former Chief of the Air Staff Air Marshal Bharat Kumar PVSM AVSM (Retd) Air Marshal Vinod Patney SYSM PVSM AVSM VrC (Retd), former Vice Chief of the Air Staff H.E. N.N. Vohra, Governor J&K, former Principal Secretary to the Prime Minister, former Defence Secretary, former Home Secretary. (on leave) Air Marshal SB Deo PVSM AVSM VM VSM ADC (Ex-Officio) Secretary Defence (Finance), Ministry of Defence (Ex-officio) Captain Ajay Singh, Senior Vice President – Training, Standards and Special Initiatives, Member and Jet Airways (I) Pvt Ltd, former Deputy Director Air Defence, Air HQ Managing Trustee AIR POWER Journal welcomes research articles on defence, military affairs and strategy (especially air power and space issues) of contemporary and historical interest. Articles in the Journal reflect the views and conclusions of the authors and not necessarily the opinions or policy of the Centre or any other institution. Editor-in-Chief Air Marshal Vinod Patney, SYSM PVSM AVSM VrC, (Retd) Editor Dr Manpreet Sethi Distributor KW Publishers Pvt. Ltd. All correspondence may be addressed to Editor-in-Chief AIR POWER Arjan Path, Subroto Park, New Delhi 110 010 Telephone: (91.11) 25699131-32 Fax: (91.11) 25682533 e-mail: [email protected] [email protected] website: www.capsindia.org © Centre for Air Power Studies All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic or mechanical, including photocopying, recording or by any information storage and retrieval system without permission from the Director General, Centre for Air Power Studies, New Delhi ISBN: 81-87966-30-0 AIR POWER Journal is published four times a year and is distributed by KW Publishers Pvt. Ltd. 4676/21, First Floor, Ansari Road, Daryaganj, New Delhi 110 002 Telefax: 23263498 e-mail: [email protected] Printed and Published by Air Marshal Vinod Patney (Retd) on behalf of the Forum for National Security Studies (the Trust running the Centre for Air Power Studies, New Delhi) and Printed by Glorious Printers, 1597-98, Pataudi House, Daryaganj, New Delhi 110002 and Published at P-284, Arjan Path, Subroto Park, New Delhi 110 010. RNI REGN No. DELENG/2006/18450 CONTENTS Editor’s Note v 1. FIRST BK NEHRU MEMORIAL LECTURE 1 NN Vohra 2. NUCLEAR PROLIFERATION FROM PAKISTAN: A PEEP INTO THE PAST AND ImpLICATIONS FOR THE FUTURE 15 Manpreet Sethi 3. CHINA IN THE ASIA-PACIFIC: RISING OppORTUNITIES, DEEPENING CONCERNS 35 Sana Hashmi 4. CHINA’S WESTERN THEATRE COmmAND: ImpLICATIONS FOR INDIA 51 Temjenmeren Ao 5. AnALYSIS OF PERMANENT COURT OF ARBITRATION’S VERDICT ON THE SOUTH CHINA SEA 71 Pooja Bhatt 6. WHAT IF? AnALYSIS OF MILITARY DECISIONS 89 Bharat Kumar 7. OpERATION CACTUS: SOME PARALLELS 107 Ashok K Chordia CONTENTS 8. CYBER VIGILANTISM, TERRORISM AND GUERRILLA WARFARE: NEW CHALLENGES, NEW PERSPECTIVES 131 Ashish Gupta 9. ISIS AND ITS PRESUMED EXPANSION INTO CENTRAL ASIA: ImpLICATIONS FOR INDIA 153 Poonam Mann AIR POWER Journal Vol. 12 No. 3, MONSOON 2017 (July-September) IV Editor’s NotE There was but one news item that dwarfed the others during this quarter. That was the Doklam standoff. Numerous articles and commentaries were written, and voices raised in all channels of the print and electronic media. The opinions varied from the imminence of war, at one end, to the impossibility of war, at the other. All felt a sense of relief when the standoff was lifted. A spate of post facto opinions followed that covered the spectrum, from the inevitability of a peaceful resolution to the need to be more watchful as the ‘dragon’ had been infuriated. Common sense will suggest that the path to follow is somewhere in between. We should be continuously on guard, work towards becoming better equipped, and improve our infrastructure. At the same time, we must retain our equanimity and remain confident that we are capable of confronting any military misadventure by China. The importance of China is well recognised at our Centre and we will continue to study and analyse what China says and does. Our lead article in this issue of the Journal is the speech given by Shri NN Vohra, governor of Jammu and Kashmir, during the First BK Nehru Memorial Lecture under the aegis of the Centre for Research in Rural and Industrial Development. Besides justifiably praising the work and life of the late BK Nehru, the speech gave a good account of what ails India at present, and the author, in his inimitable style, gives remedial prescriptions. It is an interesting and engrossing article that makes good reading. Arguably, the most destabilising factor in South Asia and, indeed, the region, is a nuclear Pakistan. Hence, it behoves us to continue to study the history of Pakistan’s attempts at nuclear proliferation and to extrapolate V AIR POWER Journal Vol. 12 No. 3, MONSOON 2017 (July-September) EDITOR’S NOTE the possible implications for the future. Dr Manpreet Sethi, in a very well researched article, shows that in spite of many vociferous denials by Pakistan, the world has little doubt on the role of that country both as a recipient of nuclear technology and in furthering nuclear proliferation. More importantly, the threat of nuclear terrorism emanating from that country is live. The presence of so many terrorist groups in Pakistan and the country’s support to many of them has the potential for nasty misdeeds. Unfortunately, in spite of clear knowledge of Pakistani perfidy, the world has done little to ward off a serious challenge facing all of us. The world will have to pay for the sins of allowing Pakistani nuclear capability to develop due to what can only be termed as opportunistic and other pressing concerns. The next three articles study different aspects of recent Chinese history. Sana Hashmi discusses the deepening concerns about Chinese activities in the Asia-Pacific region. China’s burgeoning economy, growing defence expenditure and being a major, if not the leading, trading partner with the countries in the region should have given China a great advantage in extending its sphere of influence. The influence of the US in the area is also apparently waning but China, by her actions and demands, has created considerable suspicion amongst the countries in her periphery. The major organisational changes or ‘military reforms’ effected by China last year have excited many discussions and debates on their relevance to other countries, and their likely impact. China’s new Western Theatre Command is geographically opposite the entire northern and eastern India and, hence, will play the lead role in the case of any Sino-Indian conflict. Dr Temjenmeran Ao describes the theatre command and its implications for India. He discusses the infrastructural developments in the region and cautions that India should maintain a watchful eye on the developments. In July 2016, the Permanent Court of Arbitration (PCA) gave its verdict in favour of the Philippines but China has categorically stated that it does not accept the verdict. However, non-acceptance of the verdict does not make it bad in law. Pooja Bhatt analyses the verdict and the Chinese position. AIR POWER Journal Vol. 12 No. 3, MONSOON 2017 (July-September) VI EDITOR’S NOTE Sovereignty and ownership of tiny but contested islands is involved and the only thing we can say with some certainty is that the last word on the PCA verdict is yet to be written. In an article intriguing titled “What If?” Air Mshl Bharat Kumar discusses selected decisions taken by the Indian Air Force in yesteryears and their outcomes. What might have been is the common refrain. The article is a journey down memory lane, and the author rues some, in his view, untimely decisions that were taken. Some may argue that the decisions were not really wrong given the limited information then available but no one can have any doubts on the scholarship behind the article. He cites a number of examples and his analysis in each case of how things could have been different makes good reading. Operation Cactus, the operation mounted at short notice to save President Gayoom and his government in the Maldives is a heroic success story in the annals of the history of our air force.
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