An article by EMC Proven Professional Knowledge Sharing Elite Author A WHOLE NEW BALLGAME: LEVERAGING BIG DATA IN BASEBALL Bruce Yellin Advisory Systems Engineer EMC Corporation [email protected] Table of Contents Introduction – Baseball, Big Data, and Advanced Analytics ...................................... 9 Big Data and Baseball - Players, Coaches, Trainers, and Managers ....................... 13 Sportvision ................................................................................................................ 15 PITCHf/x ................................................................................................................ 16 HITf/x ..................................................................................................................... 25 FIELDf/x ................................................................................................................ 28 Big Data and the Business of Baseball ..................................................................... 33 Player Development .................................................................................................. 36 Revenue From Fans .................................................................................................. 38 Revenue From Media ................................................................................................ 42 Big Data Helps Create Algorithmic Baseball Journalism ......................................... 43 Listen To Your Data - Grady the Goat - The Curse of the Bambino ......................... 46 Conclusion: The Future of Big Data Baseball ........................................................... 47 Appendix - PITCHf/x Metadata ................................................................................... 50 Footnotes ..................................................................................................................... 51 PLEASE NOTE: It is recommended that this paper be printed in color. Disclaimer: The views, processes, or methodologies published in this article are those of the authors. They do not necessarily reflect EMC Corporation’s views, processes, or methodologies. 2014 EMC Proven Professional Knowledge Sharing 2 Big data and advanced analytics touch every facet of our lives. We see it in action with on-line advertising, cash register printed coupons, and the marketing of airline tickets. Big data measurements range from hundreds of terabytes to petabytes, with analytics refining data quantity into quality actionable information. Baseball has always been a data-rich statistical paradise and is called a data- driven sport, yet the amount of data it used to generate pales in comparison to today’s game. No wonder that Joe Maddon, manager of the Tampa Bay Rays, calls the impact of big data on baseball its second great renaissance1. Up until the last twenty years, we judged players based on basic statistics. Now we have much more in-depth data to make more accurate assessments. Big data can now help hitters battle pitchers, pitchers battle hitters, and properly position defensive players for the pitcher-hitter dynamic. Just as big data has helped companies worldwide become more profitable and efficient, it will also help Major League Baseball (MLB) do the same. Big data will give teams a competitive and financial advantage, and bring the fan a more exciting experience. The data and analytics will come from action on the field and business decisions. It will be available to customers in the ballparks and fans around the world, giving them insights that were impossible just a few years ago. Pretend you are at a game on a really humid, windless, hot August night at Boston’s century-old Fenway Park. The Red Sox lead their arch rival New York Yankees 3-2 with 2 outs in the top of the 9th inning. On 2nd base is Robinson Cano and on 3rd, Brett Gardner who as one of the fastest runners in baseball could score the tying run in about 3 seconds. Just 20 minutes earlier, most of the 34,000 fans stood and sang Neil Diamond’s classic “Sweet Caroline” with gusto. Now they are standing again, this time vocalizing their disdain for the Yankees. Their thunderous applause, foot stomping, and 120+ decibel roar can be heard blocks away as the pitch is delivered. The 92 mph four-seam fastball crossed the 17” wide home plate and thuds into Jarrod “Salty” Saltalamacchia’s catcher’s mitt. An instant later, the umpire calls “Strike Two!” against former Red Sox hero and now Yankees “Evil Empire” foot soldier, Kevin “Youk” Youkilis. Youk doesn’t like the umpire’s call as boisterous fans, packed like sardines in 2014 EMC Proven Professional Knowledge Sharing 3 bars along Yawkey Way, Lansdowne Street, and Brookline Avenue scream “Yes!” in near-unison, accompanied by nearly 4 million ESPN viewers across America yelling for or against the right-handed hitter to succeed or fail. A high-definition TV camera zooms in at the perspiration dripping from under Kevin’s batting helmet. On the mound, Boston’s hard-throwing right-handed warrior Clay Buchholz, his double-knit polyester uniform drenched in sweat, has delivered his 108th pitch of the evening. Statistically, right handed pitchers would rather face right- handed hitters, so this matchup favors Buchholz, a former teammate of Youk. Buchholz takes a long time between pitches. He must get Youk out because the next batter is even more dangerous. Over the next 24 seconds, both teams reset for the next pitch. Before the game, the Yankees’ big data scientists charted the likely type and location of Buchholz’s next pitch. Youk steps out of the batter’s box waiting for 3rd base coach Robby Thompson to relay Yankee manager Joe Girardi’s offensive signal. Thompson touches his cap, chest, thigh, gestures with his hands, then double-claps telling Youk to expect Buchholz to jam him inside based on a PITCHf/x big data analysis. Gardner and Cano are also looking at the signals so they know what is being attempted. PITCHf/x data shows the Sox the location and type of the pitch Youk likes to hit. Even with the diminishing skills of a 34-year old, Youk is still a dangerous career .281 hitter who thrives on pitches in the middle of the plate or low and inside2. Red Sox bench coach Torey Lovullo signals the fielders where to play based on pitching coach Juan Nieves’ signal to Salty. The impassioned fans begin to holler again. Salty signals the 6’3” Buchholz a 1-2-3-2-1 with his fingers and moves his mitt high. The first “1” is a fastball, “2” is an even number for an inside location, and the rest is a decoy should Cano steal the signs and relay them to Youk. Salty and Buchholz have agreed with 2 strikes to throw a fastball high and inside to set up their possible follow-up pitch. Both sides have big data insight into the pitch speed, trajectory, and spin. 2014 EMC Proven Professional Knowledge Sharing 4 Wielding a bat like a gladiator’s sword, Youk is about to go into combat against 9 defenders. Youk and Buchholz are ready, both team’s benches and bullpens are focused, and the fans are making Fenway Park vibrate with excitement. Buchholz has an incredibly difficult job - release the ball at the precise moment and with the correct spin and angle, because if it is off by a fraction of a millisecond or degree it will either miss the strike zone, or Youk might hit it and tie the game in a mere matter of seconds. Prior to the game, the relevant big data was sliced and diced and presented on the pitching coach’s iPad. Various game parameters such as his opponents, nightly rest, by- inning pitch counts to tally endurance factors, and even the day/night impact on each type of pitch Buchholz throws could be factored in. This helped Buchholz and Salty develop a pitch strategy for the game based on the humidity, wind speed, and the strengths and weaknesses of the Yankees. In general, if Youk hits a pitch, there is a 40% chance it will be a ground ball (GB), 40% a fly ball (FB), and a 20% chance of a line drive (LD)3. Youk has also done his pre-game iPad homework and knows Buchholz favors the fastball in a 2- strike count. He expects the pitch to cross the plate in an area high center to lower outside, so he prepares himself mentally to go with the pitch and try to hit it to right field. Buchholz and Salty are going to attempt to deceive Youk. The runners increase their lead, Salty shifts from center of home plate to the right side, and Buchholz, throwing from the stretch position, begins his delivery. Buchholz throws a ball with an outer shell made from two pieces of leather laced with 108 red stitches. The stitches are 7 hundredths of an inch above the smooth surface and push against the airflow, causing it to rotate at hundreds to thousands of RPM depending on the pitch. The red stiches on the seam’s axis can appear to the batter as a “red dot” when the ball is released. Hall of Famer Reggie Jackson says “If you can’t see the rotation, you have to be able to recognize if it’s a curve ball or a slider. And if you can’t, you’re not going to be a major league player. Anyone who can hit above .270 can see the red dot. Anyone who saw that dot on the ball, you knew it was the slider. If it was a really big dot, you knew it was a hanger and you could hit it out.”4 2014 EMC Proven Professional Knowledge Sharing 5 In a tenth of a second, the ball completes 2 revolutions, travels 13’, and air resistance starts to slow it down5. The stitches break up the airflow and reduce drag, enabling the ball to go further than if it was smooth. Nicknamed the “Greek God of Walks”, Youk has a keen eye for the ball with 20-11 visual acuity (he sees from 20’ what most people see from 11’)6. He spots the rotation and by processing the pitcher’s release point, his hands and fingers, the ball’s spin, and probability of what Buchholz likes to throw, surmises it’s a 4-seam fastball. The ball’s trajectory is inside and high, not low and outside as Youk had orignally guessed. He must “protect” the plate at all costs and prevent getting a 3rd stike, so in the next .15 seconds, he “tells” his body to swing defensively. Salty also recognizes he is out of position and immediately moves his glove to the left.