COVER Buhari - re-elected Atiku - still contesting results Nigeria’s bumpy road to democracy Africa’s most populated country, Nigeria, after some 20 years of democratic governance, has just gone through another cycle of elections, with all kinds of challenges, writes *Chido Onumah. igeria’s much-anticipated pres- states of origin, to cast their votes. That scored 11,262,978. Buhari won in 19 idential election took place on perhaps would explain the record low- states while Mr. Abubakar won in 17 Saturday, February 23, 2019, turn when the election eventually held a states and the Federal Capital Territo- Nafter a one-week extension. Originally week after. With more than 82 million ry (Abuja). While there are 91 officially scheduled to hold on Saturday, February registered voters, fewer than 29 million, registered political parties in Nigeria, 73 16, the election was shifted at the elev- representing about 35% voted, a shortfall parties fielded presidential candidates, enth hour by the country’s election um- from the 43.65% of registered voters that the highest in the history of the country. pire, the Independent National Electoral turned out in 2015. The election as expected was essentially a Commission (INEC), citing logistical In the early hours of Wednesday, two-horse race between the incumbent, challenges. It was a decision that didn’t go February 27, after four days of suspense, a retired general, Muhammadu Buhari, down well with political parties and poli- the incumbent president, Muhamma- and the candidate of the main opposi- ticians—who claimed they had expended du Buhari of the ruling All Progressives tion party, the People’s Democratic Party a lot of resources preparing for the Feb- Congress (APC), was declared win- (PDP), and former vice president, Atiku ruary 16 date—and Nigerians who had ner with 15,191,847 votes, beating his Abubakar. to travel long distances, many to their main challenger, Atiku Abubakar, who It was a race between two political 10 African Agenda Vol. 22 No. 1 COVER heavyweights. After three previous at- 1999 after 16 years of military dictator- though Mr. Buhari scored better in the tempts, Buhari defeated then president, ship. He had a rocky relationship with South-east and South-south in the 2019 Dr Goodluck Jonathan, in 2015—the his boss during their second term from election than he did in previous election, first time an incumbent president would 2003 to 2007 and failed in his bid to suc- the low numbers compared to those of be defeated in an election in Nigeria. A ceed him in 2007. He ran for president his opponent reflected the crisis of con- veteran of the Nigerian Civil War that for the first time in 1992 and would run fidence that has trailed Buhari’s style of lasted from 1967 to 1970, Buhari has again in 2011 and in 2015—in the APC governance and questioned the unity of been in government since 1975 when he primaries—against the eventual winner, the country under his watch. was appointed military administrator of Muhammadu Buhari. President Buhari came to power former North-eastern state, comprising While the candidates offered a lot four years ago promising “change,” and a Oil infrastructure today’s Borno, Yobe, Adamawa, Taraba, in terms of political pedigree, the cam- break from the past. He vowed to tackle Bauchi and Gombe States. He would paign itself didn’t offer much in terms of corruption, insecurity and unemploy- become Nigeria’s federal commissioner the fundamental challenges confronting ment. Very little appears to have changed (minister) of petroleum between 1976 Nigeria, particularly the question of na- after four years. Insecurity continues to and 1978, and head of state after he tional integration. Some people have ar- be a major issue in the country with the seized power in a military coup on De- gued that not since the 30-month civil unrelenting onslaught of the Boko Ha- cember 31, 1983, ending Nigeria’s Sec- war that lasted from July 1967 to January ram terrorist group in the North-east, ond Republic. 1970 has Nigerian been divided the way kidnappers and freelance assassins in the Buhari’s main challenger, Atiku it has in the last four years of the Buhari southern part of the country and bandit- Abubakar, a former vice president and administration. Much of that was reflect- ry in the North-west, including in the billionaire businessman, worked for ed in the voting pattern. president’s home state of Katsina. Much many years with the Nigeria Customs Even though Buhari and Atiku are of the first term of the Buhari adminis- Service before his foray into politics. A Fulani, Muslims and from northern Ni- tration witnessed an upsurge in deadly protégé of Shehu Musa Yar’Adua, a re- geria, much of Buhari’s support during violence by itinerant herdsmen on local tired general who opposed Abacha’s dic- the election came from northern Nige- farmers in the country’s North-central tatorship and would later die in prison, ria as opposed to Atiku who controlled zone and critics accused the president of Atiku emerged as vice-president under the votes in the South-east, South-south not doing enough to tackle the problem. retired general, Olusegun Obasanjo, and parts of the South-west while gain- On the economic front, while the when Nigeria returned to civilian rule in ing some grounds in the North. Even country witnessed some gains, particu- Vol. 22 No. 1 African Agenda 11 COVER larly in the areas of road and rail infra- outcome of the presidential election. The structure, unemployment remains high. opposition is accusing the government of The country’s unemployment rate in- “Whoever is eventually vote buying, suppression of votes in its creased from 18.8 per cent in the third sworn in as the president of stronghold, manipulation of results,and quarter of 2017 to 23.1 per cent in the militarizing the election. More than two third quarter of 2018, according to a re- Nigeria on May 29—Nige- dozen people, including security person- port released in December 2018 by the ria’s Democracy Day—after nel, died during the election, the highest country’s apex statistical agency, the Na- number of deaths on election day since tional Bureau of Statistics (NBS). The the courts would have had the country returned to democracy in report noted that the economically active their say, would have to 1999. or working age population (15 – 64 years The opposition is also accusing the of age) increased from 111.1 million in contend with the elephant government of muzzling the judiciary Q3 2017 to 115.5million in Q3 2018. in the room, how to heal a in anticipation of the outcome of the Corruption, or fighting it, remains a election. President Buhari suspended the touchy issue. The introduction of a whis- deeply fractured nation and country’s Chief Justice, Walter Onnogh- tleblower policy—which rewards Nigeri- en, over allegation of false declaration ans who report fraud and corruption— revamp the country’s ailing of assets, and appointed an acting Chief by the government in December 2016, economy that has given it Justice, Ibrahim Tanko Muhammad, to has led to the recovery of large sums of replace him on the eve of the swearing-in money by the country’s anti-corruption the unenviable label as the of judges who will oversee election peti- agencies while the Treasury Single Ac- world’s poverty capital.” tions. The president’s action didn’t have count (TSA) which was initiated by the the input of the National Judicial Coun- Goodluck Jonathan administration in cil (NJC), a body constitutionally man- 2012 and implemented by the Buhari between 1976 and 1978 under the mili- dated to undertake such task, and many administration, has helped reduce graft tary regime of Gen. Olusegun Obasanjo. legal experts worry that Mr. Buhari’s ac- in the public service by consolidating all There is also the issue of a new minimum tion could lead to a constitutional crisis government revenues in a single account wage which pitted the Nigeria Labour if not handled carefully. at the Central Bank of Nigeria. On the is- Congress (NLC) against the government The president’s health will be a ma- sue of politically exposed persons (PEPs), last year with labour threatening to shut jor issue in his second term. Mr. Buhari the opposition has severely accused the down the country on several occasions. was in and out hospital in the UK for Buhari administration of only targeting Though the election is over, there treatment for undisclosed illness, stay- those opposed to the government. remains great uncertainty. Mr. Abuba- ing on one occasion for more than three These concerns, including the need kar, the runner-up, has yet to congratu- months. to diversify the economy and reduce, if late President Buhari who was declared While the major election for pres- not end, the country’s dependence on oil winner by the electoral commission. He ident,109 senators and members of the will dominate Mr. Buhari’s second term has signified his intention to challenge Federal House of Representatives— which starts on May 29. The reliance on the result at the election tribunal. A week among the highest paid legislators in the oil has not only exacerbated prebendal after the result was announced, the Pres- world—took place on February 23, elec- politics in Nigeria, it has led to wide- idential Election Petition Tribunal sitting tions for the country’s 36 governors and spread poverty, created huge environ- in Abuja granted Mr. Abubakar leave state assembly members will take place mental problem, a booming “ransom in- to inspect all election materials used by on March 9.