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Changes in China's Anthropogenic Emissions During The Discussions https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2020-355 Earth System Preprint. Discussion started: 28 November 2020 Science c Author(s) 2020. CC BY 4.0 License. Open Access Open Data Changes in China’s anthropogenic emissions during the COVID-19 pandemic Bo Zheng1, Qiang Zhang2,*, Guannan Geng3, Qinren Shi3, Yu Lei4, Kebin He3 1Institute of Environment and Ecology, Tsinghua Shenzhen International Graduate School, Tsinghua University, Shenzhen 5 518055, China 2Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modeling, Department of Earth System Science, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China 3State Key Joint Laboratory of Environment Simulation and Pollution Control, School of Environment, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China 10 4Chinese Academy of Environmental Planning, Beijing 100012, China Correspondence to: Qiang Zhang ([email protected]) Abstract. The COVID-19 pandemic lockdowns led to a sharp drop in socio-economic activities in China in 2020, including reductions in fossil fuel use, industry productions, and traffic volumes. The short-term impacts of lockdowns on China’s air quality have been measured and reported, however, the changes in anthropogenic emissions have not yet been assessed 15 quantitatively, which hinders our understanding of the causes of the air quality changes during COVID-19. Here, for the first time, we report the anthropogenic air pollutant emissions from mainland China during the first eight months of 2020 by using a bottom-up approach based on the near real-time data. The COVID-19 lockdown was estimated to have reduced China’s anthropogenic emissions substantially between January and March in 2020, with the largest reductions in February. Emissions of SO2, NOx, CO, NMVOCs, and primary PM2.5 were estimated to have decreased by 29%, 31%, 27%, 26%, and 20 21%, respectively, in February 2020 compared to the same month in 2019. The reductions in anthropogenic emissions were dominated by the industry sector for SO2 and PM2.5 and were contributed approximately equally by the industry and transportation sectors for NOx, CO, and NMVOCs. With the spread of coronavirus controlled, China’s anthropogenic emissions rebounded in April and since then returned to the comparable levels of 2019 in August 2020. The provinces in China have presented nearly synchronous decline and rebound in anthropogenic emissions, while Hubei and the provinces 25 surrounding Beijing recovered slower due to the extension of lockdown measures. The reduction ratios of anthropogenic emissions from 2019 to 2020 can be accessed from https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.c.5214920.v1 (Zheng et al., 2020) by species, month, sector, and province. 1 Introduction The world witnessed the outbreak and spread of the coronavirus disease COVID-19 in the first half of 2020. The widespread 30 lockdowns to contain the coronavirus include the broad restrictions on travel, business operations, and people-to-people interactions, which have caused an unprecedented disruption in the atmospheric environment. The reduced socio-economic 1 Discussions https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2020-355 Earth System Preprint. Discussion started: 28 November 2020 Science c Author(s) 2020. CC BY 4.0 License. Open Access Open Data activities caused an immediate sharp drop in global fossil fuel demand, reduced air pollutant emissions, and cleaned the air (Bauwens et al., 2020; Liu et al., 2020a; Venter et al., 2020). However, unlike the air quality index that is monitored in real- time, the conventional datasets of energy use and air pollutant emissions are only available after one or two years of latency, 35 which hampers our understanding of the energy-emission-air quality cascade in such a fast-evolving event of COVID-19. Recently pioneer studies started to explore the new concept of near real-time emission tracking to assess the influence of COVID-19 lockdowns on climate and air quality. These new approaches extrapolated the emission inventories of a baseline year to the current time in 2020 based on observational constraints or relevant activity indicators. The observation-based method (“top-down method”) employed air pollutant concentrations measured by satellites (Chevallier et al., 2020; Ding et 40 al., 2020; Miyazaki et al., 2020; Zhang et al., 2020; Zhang et al., 2021; Zheng et al., 2020) and ground stations (Feng et al., 2020; Xing et al., 2020) to infer the evolution of surface emissions, which are constrained by both observational data and chemical transport models. Satellite imagery of nitrogen dioxide (NO2) is widely used to constrain nitrogen oxide (NOx) emissions due to its broad spatial coverage and high retrieval accuracy. The activity indicator-based method (“bottom-up method”) relied on daily electricity generation (Guevara et al., 2020; Liu et al., 2020d; Liu et al., 2020e), confinement index 45 (Le Quéré et al., 2020), and mobility index (Forster et al., 2020) to estimate the emission changes based on the assumptions associating those activity indicator changes with the anthropogenic emissions. Since few near real-time proxies are available at present, several common datasets have to be used to approximate the emission changes of different source sectors. The research on near real-time emission tracking is still in its infancy. Substantial gaps exist between what we need to understand the emission dynamics and what the current top-down and bottom-up methods can provide us. The top-down 50 approach can constrain emission distributions based on real-time observation data, while it lacks sectoral emission details and cannot retrieve all of the reactive species. The bottom-up approach estimates emissions by sector and by species, but it is limited by the lack of the recent emission baseline and sufficient activity data reflecting emissions change. Since each method has its advantages and disadvantages, having both top-down and bottom-up approaches is important at present. Here, as the second paper following our previous study (Zheng et al., 2020) that estimates China’s daily NOx and carbon 55 dioxide (CO2) emissions during COVID-19 with a top-down approach, we develop a bottom-up method in parallel to track monthly emissions of all of the conventional air pollutants in mainland China and for the first time report China’s anthropogenic emissions from January to August in 2020. We use the Multi-resolution Emission Inventory for China (MEIC) model (Zheng et al., 2018a) to estimate China’s emissions in 2018 and 2019 and then use 39 types of near real-time activity data to update the emission estimates to 2020. Provincial and sectoral emissions are estimated by month and the relative 60 changes in monthly emissions from 2019 to 2020 are compared with the satellite and ground-based observations for a preliminary evaluation. The emission datasets developed in this study can provide the most up-to-date China’s emissions input to chemical transport models and help interpret the abrupt changes in pollutant concentrations during the COVID-19 lockdowns. 2 Discussions https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2020-355 Earth System Preprint. Discussion started: 28 November 2020 Science c Author(s) 2020. CC BY 4.0 License. Open Access Open Data 2 Methods and data 65 2.1 Baseline emissions in 2019 We use the MEIC model to estimate China’s anthropogenic emissions in 2018 and 2019 following our previous study (Zheng et al., 2018a) that calculated China’s 2010–2017 emissions. MEIC is a bottom-up emission model that used the technology-based approach to estimate emissions with activity data, emission factors, and pollution control techniques of emission sources. More than 700 anthropogenic emission sources are included in the MEIC model, which can be aggregated 70 into five sectors of power, industry, residential, transportation, and agriculture. Power plants (Liu et al., 2015) and cement plants (Liu et al., 2020b) are both treated as point sources in MEIC with detailed facility-level emission parameters and geographical coordinates to estimate emissions and locate their positions. The other industrial plants are estimated as area sources in each province, where the parameters such as emission factors and pollution removal efficiencies are well-tuned using a comprehensive industrial database that includes about 10,000 industrial plants in China (Qi et al., 2017; Zheng et al., 75 2017; Zheng et al., 2018b). Emissions from the residential sector are estimated on the base of the survey-based fuel consumption data (Peng et al., 2019), which corrects the underestimation bias of rural coal use statistics in China. Onroad transport emissions are estimated using the county-level information that depicts high-resolution emission distribution patterns at fine spatial scales (Zheng et al., 2014). Off-road transport and agricultural emissions are both estimated as area sources at the provincial level with the detailed provincial activity database and emission factors mainly derived from the 80 local measurement (Li et al., 2017). Please refer to our previous papers cited above for more details of the MEIC emission model. 2.2 Monthly emissions in 2020 We face challenges in estimating monthly emissions of 2020 using the traditional bottom-up method due to a lack of timely updated activity data and emission factors to drive the MEIC model to do a complete calculation. Currently, it is difficult to 85 achieve real-time information, and both the coal consumption and pollution control statistics are not available until at least one year later. Adapting to such a situation, we develop a new method to update China’s monthly emissions from 2019 to 2020 based on the near real-time activity indicators and the emission factor trends of each province. China’s emissions of different air pollutants in 2020 are then estimated by source, by month, and by province using the following formula. E = E ×α ispm,, , 2020 ispm,, ,2019 ispm ,, , A× EF =E × ipm,,2020 ispm,,,2020 ispm,, , 2019 A× EF ipm,,2019 ispm,,,2019 A EF ≈E ××ipm,,2020 isp, , ,2019 ispm,, , 2019 A EF ipm,, 2019 isp, , ,2018 3 Discussions https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2020-355 Earth System Preprint.
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